Mining is illegal in China now?

[bitsnbits]

Now that Mining is supposedly illegal in China (or will be), will that increase the amount of payouts to existing miners of btc,eth, etc.. ?? They currently mine 60% of the coins out there, right?

Assuming they actually stop mining when they have to; or is that logic not correct?

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[kamranki]

From what I have read and heard from people (based on very little experience I have), the total hashpower of the Bitcoin network will drop if number of miners go offline. So in theory, payout amount will also get reduced in this case. And payout also depends on the value of the currency. But I am not sure if all this is entirely true.

[mocacinno]

If 60% of the hashrate would "dissapear" all at once (eventough i seriously doubt it'll ever come to that), you can expect the average time between 2 blocks to be ~16 minutes for a maximum of 2016 blocks. After this, the difficulty will be adjusted so the average time between 2 blocks is once again ~10 minutes.

At this point, for normal users, it'll be like nothing happened... The only thing that will be visible is there might a bit of a backlog in unconfirmed transactions, and the chinese miners make no more money... The coinbase rewards they would have collected now goes to the leftover miners.

Coinbase rewards are not calculated based on the number of miners, or the network's hashrate... Even better: there is no way to conclusively know how many miners are currently turned on, and what the exact hashrate of all miners combined is... You can calculate how much the total hashrate approximates because you know the difficulty, but that's about it. The difficulty gets adjusted every 2016 blocks if the average time between 2 blocks wasn't exactly 10 minutes.

In reality, if China is serious this time (it isn't the first time they "attacked" bitcoin), you'll probably see a couple of miners turn their gear off each week... You'll probably won't even notice this... The average time between 2 blocks will be slightly more than 10 minutes for a couple of months, and each diff adjustment, the difficulty will decrease a little bit... At least, that's what i think would happen if China outlawed bitcoin mining...

[Jazzi Mahesh]

Bitcoin took a beating after China's crypto-mining ban and is now down nearly 50% from it's all-time high. The latest shakeout in digital currencies also stems from tighter scrutiny in the United States.

[BitMaxz]

Who said that Bitcoin mining in China is illegal? There's nothing new about this every block halving and bear market they always spreading the news that Bitcoin mining is illegal without any proof.

I can't even find any proof today that it was illegal except for new articles out there. This is another clickbait the same as what they did before but actually, it's another FUD to push the Bitcoin price down to the dip.

Look at the difficulty chart below



The difficulty still keeps increasing and we know china has the biggest Bitcoin mining farm so if they take down the biggest mining farm there must be a huge difficulty drop.

will that increase the amount of payouts to existing miners of btc,eth, etc.. ??

It should have increased in payout if the difficulty drops not for other coins but only for BTC. ETH is another story.

[examplens]

In reality, if China is serious this time (it isn't the first time they "attacked" bitcoin), you'll probably see a couple of miners turn their gear off each week... You'll probably won't even notice this... The average time between 2 blocks will be slightly more than 10 minutes for a couple of months, and each diff adjustment, the difficulty will decrease a little bit... At least, that's what i think would happen if China outlawed bitcoin mining...

if this were to really happen, I guess all of this mining hardware will be sold/moved to another state with cheap electricity. Mining hardware owners certainly won't bury him in the ground. Everything will come to the same thing again.

Even if China is rich, they certainly cannot ignore the daily profits that miners bring them. 60% of this, right? https://www.blockchain.com/charts/miners-revenue

[mocacinno]

--snip--
if this were to really happen, I guess all of this mining hardware will be sold/moved to another state with cheap electricity. Mining hardware owners certainly won't bury him in the ground. Everything will come to the same thing again.

Even if China is rich, they certainly cannot ignore the daily profits that miners bring them. 60% of this, right? https://www.blockchain.com/charts/miners-revenue

Correct, my point was merely that even *if* (and that's a big IF) 60% of the mining gear would dissapear over a couple of months, it would probably be hardly noticeably by us (from a technical point of view that is, i have no idear what something like that would do to the exchange rate)

[Shymaa-Arafat]

Since u r discussing hashrate price and it's correlation with Bitcoin price, can u comment on what Justin Drake discusses in mins 29-32 about the security of Bitcoin?
https://t.co/Ee6B94w9XW?amp=1
Is the numbers he says close to accurate?
I mean the 50$, and hence the 1:100 power ratio leading to order 10 billion dollars cost to break Bitcoin in his calculations?
...
-One more Q if u pls answer as miners:
When do u usually spend ur UTXO reward and why?I mean r there system constraints?
.
- & If u talking about "noticable things", I noticed a 2m drop in the no of UTXOs from 1-15 May
https://t.co/nWhWAMsWLs?amp=1
 ( accurately 1.5m from 1-5 May & 0.5m from 10-15 May). I find a straight forward correlation bet the 1/40 drop in no and the 1/4 drop in Btc USD price
https://mobile.twitter.com/ArafatShymaa/status/1397071154662215682

[stompix]

Since u r discussing hashrate price and it's correlation with Bitcoin price, can u comment on what Justin Drake discusses in mins 29-32 about the security of Bitcoin?
https://t.co/Ee6B94w9XW?amp=1
Is the numbers he says close to accurate?
I mean the 50$, and hence the 1:100 power ratio leading to order 10 billion dollars cost to break Bitcoin in his calculations?

The hashrate was above 100exahash when bitcoin was priced in the 10k area, we have seen the hashrate grow to 160exahash with the price going x6 and thus the market cap going the same way and we're seeing a 15% drop with a reduction in the price of more than 30%.
Going through the market cap, putting a price on th/s, and making a mess of all this is not the right way to look at security right now, besides, the whole assumption of 50$ per th/s and mentioning that is actually lower is again showing he has no clue on current market conditions.

Good luck buying 10k miners now, not 1 million.
That's just shilling ethereum, their security dropped to half according to their calculation with the price drop, that didn't happen with bitcoin 

I find a straight forward correlation bet the 1/40 drop in no and the 1/4 drop in Btc USD price
https://mobile.twitter.com/ArafatShymaa/status/1397071154662215682

No correlation with the price.
But far more interesting match with the block time and capacity of the network, isn't it? 
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-confirmationtime.html#3m

[Shymaa-Arafat]

match with the block time and capacity of the network, isn't it?  Wink
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-confirmationtime.html#3m

1-thanks for the useful site
2-Yes it is interesting, but sorry not the way u think it is ...
-Less block time with almost the same block size & number of TXs per block should increase the number of UTXOs in regular circumstances (1 coinbase TX leading to +1 UTXO/ block, and most usual TXs are 1:2 type ie cause increase in the no of UTXOs like the usual curve for any other interval monotonically increasing)

-Unless these r TXs with more inputs than outputs
-The TX I know of this type is called by one paper a merge-mine TX, where miners gather their previous rewards in one large valued UTXO either to keep huge or to sell & leave.
-If there's "Dust" in Bitcoin, I'd say companies gathering their profits, collecting their Dust,...etc; but even 0.1 Btc worth 4000$ and I think too large to be called dust ( value less than the TX fee to move it/handle it)
-Do u know any other kind of TX of this type?

[stompix]

-Unless these r TXs with more inputs than outputs

Your wish is my command:
https://www.blockchain.com/btc/address/3EiEN1JJCudBgAwL7c6ajqnPzx9LrK1VT6?page=226

That address and the one linked to it alone dumped around 60vMB of transactions after the retargeting if I remember correctly(!?) when I saw that it was around some 40k outputs in a matter of two days and there were a lot like it, consolidating or tumbling made no sense when you couldn't confirm anything for less than 100sat/b.

[Shymaa-Arafat]

I'm not wishing anything, I'm not a miner or investor; I'm just analyzing facts. I think that's what I mean, someone is gathering a lot of UTXOs (a lot of Btc money) in one UTXO, then it's repeated again and again ( those in 7May2021 came from previous gathers in Feb). I don't know why the last step TXs r not confirmed, is it a matter of time or someone is dumping all this amount to increase scarcity?

[Daltonik]

In fact, it may still go into the usual course, the meetings of the Chinese authorities with the miners are already beginning, for example, a recent seminar organized by the regulator of the Chinese province of Sichuan and the local branch of the national grid company, a seminar with local miners was held in a friendly atmosphere, although without the adoption of resolutions. The participants of the meeting noted the excess of hydroelectric power in the region. Among the aspects considered are the sources of income of the local population, generating companies, as well as the effect of cryptocurrency mining activities on the situation in the province.

According to Sally Wang, a representative of Sino Global Capital, the level of the conference is not of political importance, since local authorities will still follow the instructions from Beijing. https://cryptonews.com/news/sichuan-energy-meeting-offers-glimmer-of-hope-for-bitcoin-mi-10555.htm

[Daltonik]

The authorities of the Chinese province of Sichuan ordered local miners to prepare for the termination of activities by September 2021. The decision followed a meeting between officials and industry representatives in early June. https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-trends/article/3136357/sichuan-takes-lenient-stance-bitcoin-mining-amid-national

[sorrentostorres]

It is more beneficial for China to use electricity for production than to mine bitcoin, so their decision is understandable.

[NotFuzzyWarm]

It is more beneficial for China to use electricity for production than to mine bitcoin, so their decision is understandable.

Bullshit.
Your statement would only be valid if China had a national grid system like North America (excluding Texas) and most of the EU have. A national grid lets a country generate power in one area for use in another, if one area has too much generating capacity power can be sent to regions where there is not enough generating capacity.

China does not have a national grid so during the rainy seasons the hydroelectric dams are now running far below capacity because there are no miners to take up the excess power. With no grid system that potential power production is now wasted and water is just being dumped downstream vs going through a dam's turbines/generators. That is why officials in Sichuan tried to get the CCP to allow mining to continue until the rainy season is over.

[FP91G]

And what kind of production will be in China in place of the old mining plants?
I heard on the news that in many provinces of China there is a huge shortage of electricity and factories do not work for several days a week.
China can build a national grid system in a very short time or move factories to Sichuan province.

[Barinekapaul]

Mining of Bitcoin in China as been illegal has been the news circulating everywhere, and they have failed to acknowledge that a lot of people are rapidly involved and engaged in the mining procedure.
Making this illegal in countries like China whose economy is one been looked into at this point is not a very good one.
Such ban should be uplifted from the country in other to allow for continues mining of bitcoin in China.

[stompix]

China can build a national grid system in a very short time or move factories to Sichuan province.

It's not that easy, the power grid extends to Sichuan but only to a few of those hydroelectric power plants, the ones that matter.

Remember that not all of those are the same, there are huge 10-16 GW stations and a lot of small ones in the range of 300MW to 500MW that are literally in the middle of nowhere.In a rush for hydropower plants, they've built some deep in the mountains and now when they are figuring the costs to transport the energy to populated areas it doesn't really add up, especially when you are faced with 3-4 rows of 4000m tall mountains and valleys.
Neither is the relocation of factories there, it makes no sense to send manufacturing there as you will need highways for that and the costs are simply not worth it.

Not the first time a nation builds a lot of things to realize they're not really worth the effort.

[kano]

...
Not the first time a nation builds a lot of things to realize they're not really worth the effort.

Well China does it with cities, so it's not unexpected they'd do it with power also
https://allthatsinteresting.com/chinese-ghost-cities