Reverse Bubble 2021 (burst on October)

[pooya87]

Every now and then bitcoin price enters unrealistic levels which would make it unstable, eventually that bubble has to pop and price has to come back to normal for it to become stable and realistic again. It is defined by comparing the current price with intrinsic value.
* When price goes way above the intrinsic value -> it enters a bubble
* When price goes way below the intrinsic value -> it enters a reverse bubble

Reverse bubbles are more common than you'd think but since their burst is not as catastrophic as the bubble bursts they go unnoticed. For example in a bubble like what we had at the start of 2018 price dropped the bubble pop from the peak ($20k) down to more realistic level of about $8k in only 4 weeks, and that's a massive bubble that popped not a small one.

We've had many reverse bubbles too. The biggest one was at the end of 2018 that "reverse popped" after 5 months.
The most recent example is from early 2020 when out of nowhere with a large FUD campaign price went as low as $3850 and this reverse bubble took about 5 weeks to reverse pop.

Now we're in yet another large FUD campaign and a moderately large reverse bubble with its bottom at $30k. How long is it going to take for this reverse bubble to reverse pop?

A little comparison of the two recent reverse bubbles:




The burst: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5339896.msg58192042#msg58192042

[Oshosondy]

This is more researches done on bitcoin price history, with everything I read, it is just exactly what happens to the price as a result of fomo an certain news. When there is bad news at times, the price will decrease in bubbles, but bitcoin price is just like 'when there is a storm, calm comes next', that is why the price will increase back. If someone is very patient, the time when the price of bitcoin decrease very significantly is the time to buy again because many people are waiting for such time for no two reasons than to buy, this makes the price to increase. But what is always happening after bitcoin price rise and fall is that the increase over long term will be higher than the fall, this will push bitcoin price later to another all-time-high.

[UnDerDoG81]

2020 crash happened because of covid FUD. Nothing to do with bubble. Everything on the market crashed. And the rich accumulated insane ammounts of everything that crashed. And added trillions to their portfolio while the poor sold everything to them for cheap prices.

[Lucius]

Now we're in yet another large FUD campaign and a moderately large reverse bubble with its bottom at $30k. How long is it going to take for this reverse bubble to reverse pop?

In my humble opinion, it all depends on how hard the patient is hit in the head - in this case, of course, recovery depends on how strong the FUD was and how long the media will emphasize this story about EM and China ban. As we approach the middle of the year, it somehow doesn’t seem realistic to me that recovery will be quick - summer in the Northern Hemisphere and easing measures following the pandemic will likely result in a very slow recovery - and so it could be until early Q4 when things usually become much more dynamic.

Of course, it is possible that I am wrong and that we will reach $60k again in a few weeks - although I think that this would be encouraged by some extremely positive news that is not on the horizon at the moment.

[Gozie51]

2020 crash happened because of covid FUD. Nothing to do with bubble. Everything on the market crashed. And the rich accumulated insane ammounts of everything that crashed. And added trillions to their portfolio while the poor sold everything to them for cheap prices.

Was there a crash in 2020 ? No.

Was the crash because of covid-19? No.

Instead 2020 is the beginning of the bull for cryptocurrency because the investors and government were running out of contact and maintaining of social distance. And cryptocurrency became an investment opportunity.

[tokeweed]

Be careful of the bounce cos it could just be a dead cat bounce.  There are prolly more people who want to get out rn but they’re waiting for a better price to sell.  I mean I’d like to see the market recover but I feel like it’s over guys.  I should’ve listened to my gut and shorted the day when I started posting those inverted BTC charts.  Lol.

[Untomabur]

Be careful of the bounce cos it could just be a dead cat bounce.  There are prolly more people who want to get out rn but they’re waiting for a better price to sell.  I mean I’d like to see the market recover but I feel like it’s over guys.  I should’ve listened to my gut and shorted the day when I started posting those inverted BTC charts.  Lol.

thanks for the reference, honestly I don't think there will be a dead cat bounce,
but this can help with what the BTC scenario is going to be, if it is analyzed Bitcoin must be in the $ 45k to $ 50k area to be safe and can continue its positive trend,
but if still like this and being under $ 40k this is really prone, yeah beware

[magneto]

Certainly. And I think that it's a matter of time before we enter one of these 'reverse bubbles'.

The market was very euphoric to start the year, and generally that tends to not end very well. I'm still expecting further corrections to price, potentially even below the $30k level which most people view as the prevailing support.

But for the long term bulls here, it's no reason to fret - it's the perfect accumulation phase, especially after affirmation from institutional players that they'd be interested.

[pooya87]

Was there a crash in 2020 ? No.
Was the crash because of covid-19? No.

You are thinking of bear market not crash. Crashes are very common in bitcoin due to its volatile market. They can also happen during the bull market, even more regularly. For example during 2017 we had dozens of crash ranging from -30% to -50%. The first chart in OP is also the crash from 2020.
What we have today is also a crash that is about -50% big (before partial recovery). It is only a matter of time before this reverse bubble bursts too and we go back to $60k+.

[rahmatrf331]

Every now and then bitcoin price enters unrealistic levels which would make it unstable, eventually that bubble has to pop and price has to come back to normal for it to become stable and realistic again. It is defined by comparing the current price with intrinsic value.
* When price goes way above the intrinsic value -> it enters a bubble
* When price goes way below the intrinsic value -> it enters a reverse bubble

Reverse bubbles are more common than you'd think but since their burst is not as catastrophic as the bubble bursts they go unnoticed. For example in a bubble like what we had at the start of 2018 price dropped the bubble pop from the peak ($20k) down to more realistic level of about $8k in only 4 weeks, and that's a massive bubble that popped not a small one.

We've had many reverse bubbles too. The biggest one was at the end of 2018 that "reverse popped" after 5 months.
The most recent example is from early 2020 when out of nowhere with a large FUD campaign price went as low as $3850 and this reverse bubble took about 5 weeks to reverse pop.

Now we're in yet another large FUD campaign and a moderately large reverse bubble with its bottom at $30k. How long is it going to take for this reverse bubble to reverse pop?

the market needs time to get back to normal, one of the factors where investors feel safe about the current movement of BTC and are not worried about the fall of BTC below $ 30k.

The problem of how long it will take to return, I think it can be a quarter of this year, even then, it is still in a state of trauma and has not fully recovered.

[hugeblack]

There is a strange thing that happened at the beginning of this year, which is that more Bitcoin is in the hands of users who have a better understanding of the market, so the "reverse bubble" will take a shorter time than past years, just as it happened at the beginning of this year. All you need is a lot of positive news and you could see 200% within a week.
Therefore, just as the previous bubble burst in 8 weeks, I expect that we will witness a slow rebound to the 40-60 levels, and then a quick top, but the 80% -90% correction may be shorter than the 8-week period.

[Untomabur]

if that can happen at the price of Bitcoin of course this is good news for holders,
because a fast recovery will make traders and holders escape their frustration, but there is more bad news about the dead bounce cat,
many have discussed that Bitcoin could have experienced this pattern. , of course we have to be careful to trade now.

[raskolnikovx]

I truly think we are slowly going into Bear season. As always, the bull-bear transition will not be clear and lots of indicators will point to a re-flourish of the Bull market. This is how these transitions work: if people could know for sure the rising is over, then everybody would sell. I started converting some BTC to stable when we first hit 45K and kept doing so from 45 to 62K. Right now I am mostly in FIAT waiting for the prices to go down. Just as I started selling my crypto at a point and followed a plan, I will start rebuying crypto from 35K and down. I expect to buy most of my crypto between 10 and 15K. Last weekend CMC reported 1T less market cap in relation to the moment in which I saw the highest MC ever, which was 2.4T. Now it's kind of unclear b/c Elon is our friend, Goldman Sachs is embracing crypto as an asset and Dalio is vouching for Bitcoin. This last weekend, however, the massive drop and the end of the bull was way more obvious. We will see, nobody knows for sure but my guts tell me we will re-discuss this a few times more with bitcoin at lower positions until we finally accept that this bull run is done.

The good news is that we have some cheap coins coming

[pooya87]

I truly think we are slowly going into Bear season.
The good news is that we have some cheap coins coming

You are contradicting yourself in your first and last statement!

"Cheap coins" indicate being under valued, otherwise just being lower than the ATH is not considered being "cheap" for example after price dropped from the $20k of 2017 the lower prices such as $15k weren't "cheap" because the $20k price itself was not realistic. That is also why we had the "bear market" because price wasn't going below intrinsic value, it was going down to reach it!
If you think the bear market is coming then you are saying that price is above the intrinsic value not below it and there won't be any "cheap coins" as the price drops.

The reason why I disagree (with your first statement but agree with second) is that even at $58k bitcoin was under-valued. We can't have a bear market in situation like this.

[danherbias07]

Bro, that's new to me and it was explained very clear. Thank you. I never had the same thought and even those whom I follow reading analysis never came to this kind of view. All they say was correction but never had a good explanation.
Suddenly, my mind went back 2017-2018 of what happened to the Bitcoin market.
From 19.7k December 2017 to 6k+ just played there for almost a year then briefly at 3k+ December 2018. This is when a reverse bubble happens, right? The price is too low and the market needs to correct it.
So we could expect a high chance it will take long again for this price to move at greater heights just like what happened before unless a big news pops out. 

[Kong Hey Pakboy]

We are a bit too late for the reverse bubble but we also overstayed in the bull market. Something that concerns me is that when the pattern was really replicated, will we be able to see the same percentage increase in price of 2018 with the 2021?

[Bttzed03]

There is a strange thing that happened at the beginning of this year, which is that more Bitcoin is in the hands of users who have a better understanding of the market, so the "reverse bubble" will take a shorter time than past years, just as it happened at the beginning of this year. All you need is a lot of positive news and you could see 200% within a week.

After Elon tweeted about Tesla's diamond hands, Billionaires such as Ray Dalio and Darl Icahn have come out in the open and made positive statements about bitcoin. I don't know how many more of these news we will see in the coming days but it seems to me that they already bought. This kinda supports the speculation that what happened was a coordinated FUD to let these players enter the market at a huge discount.

[pooya87]

After Elon tweeted about Tesla's diamond hands, Billionaires such as Ray Dalio and Darl Icahn have come out in the open and made positive statements about bitcoin.

For many years I've been always saying that rich people have been buying bitcoin and accumulating it for a very long time. That includes those that are most negative about bitcoin such as Warren Buffet. We will continue seeing most of them reveal their real position and we may even get a feel of how much of their net-worth they have "parked in" bitcoin.

[hugeblack]

After Elon tweeted about Tesla's diamond hands, Billionaires such as Ray Dalio and Darl Icahn have come out in the open and made positive statements about bitcoin. I don't know how many more of these news we will see in the coming days but it seems to me that they already bought. This kinda supports the speculation that what happened was a coordinated FUD to let these players enter the market at a huge discount.

Many of the richest people in the world have some bitcoin indirectly due to the intersection of investment funds that are currently investing in bitcoin with many companies that operate in many fields.
Tesla was the only company that added bitcoin directly to its balance, but believe me, they will sell at one time or another, so all people who are currently investing are short-term.

These rich people have investment advisors and we all know that the price will be very low (maybe less than 30 thousand) with the end of this bubble, which will most likely be in the first quarter of next year. Therefore, all investors currently aim for short profits, not diamond hands.

The impact of investing in the first quarter of next year will be determined by how bad the financial system is and the current interest rates remain.

[yhiaali3]

I think the recovery will take some time for Bitcoin to return to its last peak, due to a lot of negative news and concerns in the market. We will need some time to recover. I think it will be 1-3 months from now.
Although you did not mention the reason for these bitcoin price bubbles, but I think the news is the first reason, unfortunately the cryptocurrency market is now being managed on social media and this is really painful.