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Author Topic: When is it profitable to bet for the TrustDice Jackpot?  (Read 110 times)
AOBTCT6 (OP)
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May 28, 2021, 01:20:38 PM
 #1

With a jackpot which increases until it's won, TrustDice's big prize will allow for mathematically profitable betting.

We've ran the numbers and worked out exactly when you should be looking to get on this.

When working this out, we looked at two methods:

* Method 1: Estimating the cost of rolling enough times to win
* Method 2: Finding where expected value is positive

From this we worked out exactly:

* How big the jackpot needs to be for you to be profitable
* What your stake should be
* How much you should be in line to win

If you're interested, feel free to have a read here - https://bitroll.com/crypto-dice-guide/when-is-it-profitable-to-bet-for-the-trustdice-jackpot

As always, feedback is welcome!
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May 28, 2021, 02:50:46 PM
 #2

While it is interesting to see the math and how your chance of profitability grows when the jackpot reaches a certain size, I think it is a bit misleading. Maybe I misunderstand but this only works if the jackpot is a "personal" amount that only one player contributed towards and was only available to that player, then you can call it "profitable" with these sort of calculations. However with a shared jackpot there are many players interacting with the game that can take it and effectively reset the jackpot to zero quite often - which would take all the money you had contributed up to that point.

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May 29, 2021, 05:21:11 AM
 #3

Thanks for sharing the details, I rarely bet on dice but it's still interesting to see the breakdown on each bet per roll.

You guys should do primedice next since they have a 100+btc jackpot but the rules are much harder.  Cheesy

Maybe I misunderstand but this only works if the jackpot is a "personal" amount that only one player contributed towards and was only available to that player, then you can call it "profitable" with these sort of calculations. However with a shared jackpot there are many players interacting with the game that can take it and effectively reset the jackpot to zero quite often - which would take all the money you had contributed up to that point.
That's one of the upsides with a personal jackpot but at the same time it'll take ages to reach the profitable threshold since you're the only one bumping up the jackpot so before you start your attempt at the jackpot you're already down a lot unlike with a shared jackpot you can simply wait and it's much faster but you're against other gamblers.

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May 29, 2021, 05:47:50 AM
 #4

I appreciate the efforts you've made in generating such a detailed information on winning a jackpot and right time to go for the jackpot. The first method of mathematical calculation is easy understanding. If I had gone through this thread an hour earlier I would've given a try with what I had in the wallet. Now I've lost everything on the same dice.

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May 29, 2021, 05:46:22 PM
 #5

With a jackpot which increases until it's won, TrustDice's big prize will allow for mathematically profitable betting.

We've ran the numbers and worked out exactly when you should be looking to get on this.

When working this out, we looked at two methods:

* Method 1: Estimating the cost of rolling enough times to win
* Method 2: Finding where expected value is positive

From this we worked out exactly:

* How big the jackpot needs to be for you to be profitable
* What your stake should be
* How much you should be in line to win

If you're interested, feel free to have a read here - https://bitroll.com/crypto-dice-guide/when-is-it-profitable-to-bet-for-the-trustdice-jackpot

As always, feedback is welcome!

That's amazing!
I always wanted to sit down and analyze but I lack such skills and my focus is alas not very good. But I do think I have to make a statement for the newbies here :
This is ofc variable from site to site and thus should not be considered universal, at the same time you have to understand that this increases the probability which still doesn't make it a good choice. Jackpot is always something which can never be won without luck.
But it's good that you have decided to share your work with the others. But I have one question: Won't such sites already have analyzed this far before and to prevent such calculations made the whole code a lot more complicated to make sure it's unbiased and fair ? Maybe it's much more complicated than this.

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December 27, 2021, 11:20:49 AM
 #6

Mathematical statistics don't majorly guarantee to win as the outcome of most games can be unpredictable, I may not agree with the information but I appreciate the efforts you put in to outline such a set of maths that can aid or guide a potential winning.

True, there are many games that prove that math statistics will not guarantee you victory, an example of this are games that depend on luck, even when people try to use math they lose, I saw a blog that talked about winning lottery using math , I laughed at that because it was all beautiful theory, in practice they couldn't win the lottery even if they spent years playing

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December 29, 2021, 01:21:04 PM
 #7

Nice try to count luck Smiley Maths is a nice tool to kill time when you`re trying to count lottery. The game theory is a serious branch of mathematics but there is a problem. It works good with a huge amount of tries. So, if you will be the only one player and bet million(or 10 mln may be) times - you will win(may be). But you never will have time and money to make enough bets and you willn`t be the only one player.

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▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
PLINKO 
.
▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄
███████████████████████████████
█████████▀▀▀       ▀▀▀█████████
██████▀  ▄▄███ ███      ▀██████
█████  ▄▀▀                █████
████  ▀                    ████
███                         ███
███                         ███
███                         ███
████                       ████
█████                     █████
██████▄                 ▄██████
█████████▄▄▄       ▄▄▄█████████
███████████████████████████████
10,000x
MULTIPLIER
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