Placing bets under Superbru-like conditions

[kryptqnick]

I've recently taken part in the EPL prediction contest, and did pretty well there.

While Superbru says I'm in top-3% in the world among those who were predicting the outcomes of these matches, my success rate at predicting the winner of the match is actually only around 50%. So I'm pretty bad at predicting who wins the games. However, I'm okay if the stakes are differentiated, and you get 1 point for result, 1.5 for a close score and 3 for an exact score.
It would be nice to try betting with money under similar conditions, but to be honest, I've never seen it as an option: you usually choose whether you're betting on the winner of the game, on the score or something else, and if you were betting on the score and didn't guess it, you're losing your bet. So conditional betting could be an interesting thing: you bet on the score at certain odds, but if you, say, don't get the score right but guess the outcome correctly, you still win some money, just not as much. Have you seen this being implemented? Would that be hypothetically interesting to you? Do you think sportsbooks could go for it or is it a bad business model for them, putting them at a disadvantage?

[Oshosondy]

I do not really understand you but if it is what I am thinking that you are asking, the betting sportbooks have very different options you can take. Like for the correct score, you will see different score range with different odds, there are even some betting sites that include 'correct score others' and correct score others first half and second half in which you can select under 4.5 goals in the first half to win the match or second half respectively
 but the odds do not encourage people to take such bet, the odd can be as low as 1.01 and in which someone can still lose. The sportbooks have so many options to take from.

[ralle14]

Your suggestion is slightly similar to system betting where you don't have to win every single leg and at the same time still get some winnings. Offering a market that gives you two winning condition sounds great on paper but there's usually a downside for sports bettors like juicier odds so they're better off doing it manually by splitting their units and place them seperately just like how you'll sometimes bet on asian totals or handicaps that involves 0.25 or 1.25.

[just_Alice]

I think this won't be really beneficial for the sportsbooks. It's really hard to get the exact score, which is why the bookies and gambling websites can afford to give high payouts in case of the right guess. With the system, you propose they'd have to increase the number of payouts to a large extent, as there will be a lot more people, whose bets were close.
The major question here is: why would anyone want to do that? Except for the new websites that would want to attract the customers in such a fashion. But then again, that would cost a lot, so, IMO, not a good decision for the owners.

[kryptqnick]

I think this won't be really beneficial for the sportsbooks. It's really hard to get the exact score, which is why the bookies and gambling websites can afford to give high payouts in case of the right guess. With the system, you propose they'd have to increase the number of payouts to a large extent, as there will be a lot more people, whose bets were close.
The major question here is: why would anyone want to do that? Except for the new websites that would want to attract the customers in such a fashion. But then again, that would cost a lot, so, IMO, not a good decision for the owners.

You might be right about this, but I'm not so sure. For one, people would still lose a lot of money because even guessing the correct outcome is not a simple thing to do. Secondly, this might attract many gamblers because the conditions are truly special, so overall it might even make a sportsbook more profitable than before. And since the odds for various types of bets are available anyway, it's probably not difficult to arrange it. And if it's risky, it could be something arranged temporarily as a promo. I see it approximately in the following way:

• a gambler chooses a football match and makes three separate bets with the same bet amount on the score, the outcome, and chooses the third bet freely (it can be one of Asian handicap options, both teams scoring, double chance etc.)
• if a gambler loses all of them, the money is lost
• if a gambler wins one of them, the other two bets become void (the money is returned), and the person gets the winnings for the won bet
• if a gambler wins two bets, this person gets the winnings for the bet with the highest odds among these two, and the other two bets become void
• if a gambler wins three bets, this person received the winnings for all of them

[Zilon]

Conditional betting would be nice for me since I get a win if my prediction is somehow close to the scores then I would rather choose to stake here since I would still be expecting something after all. But if one who guessed the outcome goes home with a win as well then the correct score winner should be given a bonus for having gotten the exact score from his/her prediction to avoid feeling been cheated by the system.

[ralle14]

Conditional betting would be nice for me since I get a win if my prediction is somehow close to the scores then I would rather choose to stake here since I would still be expecting something after all. But if one who guessed the outcome goes home with a win as well then the correct score winner should be given a bonus for having gotten the exact score from his/her prediction to avoid feeling been cheated by the system.

It's unlikely for any sportsbook to offer a bonus once you get the correct score, at best you'll just get the full payout and maybe it gets reduced by half or more if you only get the correct winning team. I'm curious on what you meant with cheated by the system because from my experience there's barely any cheating going on unless you've had bad experiences with your sportsbook.

[ethereumhunter]

I think the perception will be different, and I think you can ask the sportsbooks to know what they will say about your question. Maybe that is one trick from the sportsbooks to invite the gambler and give that option, so the gambler can win some money, although not much. And yes, that still makes a gambler place their bet and if they lose, they lose their money. Maybe some gambler will still be interested in doing that, but it will depend on the gambler itself because some gambler can predict which team will win and predict the score.

[fiulpro]

I do not think that you can see conditional betting right now. I do believe that there can be in the future similar situations for example:- when betting for a match , you can pick the team and then you can pick the score. Therefore even if you loose the score thing , if you win for the team, you can get some money. But I do think this will make everything more complicated. Everything will be compounded and there will be a lot of possibilities. But you can manually check if a website is offering betting on score and somewhere betting on teams and can do that. But then again it will be a lot different and you might not get enough profits. What you are thinking is interesting. Try and make a power point of it and present it to one of the interested companies. This way you just invented something new ! Viola! A compound gambling state.

[Silberman]

I've recently taken part in the EPL prediction contest, and did pretty well there.

While Superbru says I'm in top-3% in the world among those who were predicting the outcomes of these matches, my success rate at predicting the winner of the match is actually only around 50%. So I'm pretty bad at predicting who wins the games. However, I'm okay if the stakes are differentiated, and you get 1 point for result, 1.5 for a close score and 3 for an exact score.
It would be nice to try betting with money under similar conditions, but to be honest, I've never seen it as an option: you usually choose whether you're betting on the winner of the game, on the score or something else, and if you were betting on the score and didn't guess it, you're losing your bet. So conditional betting could be an interesting thing: you bet on the score at certain odds, but if you, say, don't get the score right but guess the outcome correctly, you still win some money, just not as much. Have you seen this being implemented? Would that be hypothetically interesting to you? Do you think sportsbooks could go for it or is it a bad business model for them, putting them at a disadvantage?

Even if you think a 50% success rate is on the low side I can say to you that professional sport bettors only get right something between 53% to 55% of their predictions, so you are on the right track, if you could up your percentage a little bit then I can tell you that you could have a chance to turn into a professional, now you require more knowledge especially how to select matches with the smallest house edge possible, but you could turn out to be successful if you do all of this.

[ralle14]

Even if you think a 50% success rate is on the low side I can say to you that professional sport bettors only get right something between 53% to 55% of their predictions, so you are on the right track, if you could up your percentage a little bit then I can tell you that you could have a chance to turn into a professional, now you require more knowledge especially how to select matches with the smallest house edge possible, but you could turn out to be successful if you do all of this.

You missed the part about his participation in a prediction pool, you can easily get a 50% win rate in a prediction pool because odds don't matter.

If you try and bet with those predictions you're likely going to lose money because odds in sportsbooks are rarely the same and the odds providers are always ahead when it comes predicting teams that are likely to win.

Even if his win rate is close to the pros he still needs to have an average odds of 2.00 in order to be profitable and maintaining both in the long run is very difficult.

[Wexnident]

You might be right about this, but I'm not so sure. For one, people would still lose a lot of money because even guessing the correct outcome is not a simple thing to do. Secondly, this might attract many gamblers because the conditions are truly special, so overall it might even make a sportsbook more profitable than before. And since the odds for various types of bets are available anyway, it's probably not difficult to arrange it. And if it's risky, it could be something arranged temporarily as a promo. I see it approximately in the following way:

• a gambler chooses a football match and makes three separate bets with the same bet amount on the score, the outcome, and chooses the third bet freely (it can be one of Asian handicap options, both teams scoring, double chance etc.)
• if a gambler loses all of them, the money is lost
• if a gambler wins one of them, the other two bets become void (the money is returned), and the person gets the winnings for the won bet
• if a gambler wins two bets, this person gets the winnings for the bet with the highest odds among these two, and the other two bets become void
• if a gambler wins three bets, this person received the winnings for all of them

The sportsbook would still lose in general imo due to the results being highly favorable to the gambler. I'd change the one win to instead of being void, is instead received normally by the sportsbook BUT the second one remains the same, where the other two bets would return the money bet onto them. I'd still think sportsbook in general would lose out though, so as you say, probably a promo of sorts would be the best way to implement it. There are probably other ways to properly skew the results so that it's equal on both sides, so maybe they could actually fix that in the future, though that's going to take a lot of testing (and money).

[Saint-loup]

Even if you think a 50% success rate is on the low side I can say to you that professional sport bettors only get right something between 53% to 55% of their predictions, so you are on the right track, if you could up your percentage a little bit then I can tell you that you could have a chance to turn into a professional, now you require more knowledge especially how to select matches with the smallest house edge possible, but you could turn out to be successful if you do all of this.

I don't know where you have seen those figures Silberman but everybody, even the noobest punters can easily get a success rate above 80%, that is to say winning more than 8 bets on 10. For that you just need to bet on the outcomes with the smallest odds, under @1.10 or even under @1.15.
Unfortunately you are not likely to make big profits by doing that because small odds are less likely to be overestimated than big ones. So you won't earn much value by doing that but if you just want to exhibit a high success rate that's the only way to get it.

[nelson4lov]

~Snipped
Have you seen this being implemented? Would that be hypothetically interesting to you? Do you think sportsbooks could go for it or is it a bad business model for them, putting them at a disadvantage?

I haven't seen a sportsbooks with such markets or options and I doubt any sportsbooks would introduce such markets in their books because it's a win win situation for the gamblers since they would win their bet majority of the time since they just need only one of the condition to be true for the bet to be won. There's only one Sportsbook that I know that implemented similar markets - draw or BTS and Win or over 1.5.  They stopped offering the markets a lomg time ago. I think they were losing more from offering such markets as users have multiple chances to win their bet. So I believe it puts them at a disadvantage by giving the gambler a higher edge.

[LTU_btc]

I haven't saw any sportsbook offering such bets. And I doubt that someone is going to offer it. It sounds quite complicated. Though, it would be quite interesting thing to try. Interesting, what odds for such bets would be. And I'm not that sure that such conditional bets would be profitable for bookmakers and also that many people would be interested in it.

[Silberman]

Even if you think a 50% success rate is on the low side I can say to you that professional sport bettors only get right something between 53% to 55% of their predictions, so you are on the right track, if you could up your percentage a little bit then I can tell you that you could have a chance to turn into a professional, now you require more knowledge especially how to select matches with the smallest house edge possible, but you could turn out to be successful if you do all of this.

I don't know where you have seen those figures Silberman but everybody, even the noobest punters can easily get a success rate above 80%, that is to say winning more than 8 bets on 10. For that you just need to bet on the outcomes with the smallest odds, under @1.10 or even under @1.15.
Unfortunately you are not likely to make big profits by doing that because small odds are less likely to be overestimated than big ones. So you won't earn much value by doing that but if you just want to exhibit a high success rate that's the only way to get it.

Success rate without profits in your pocket is useless, professional bettors would never waste their time trying to bet with odds so low, we must remember just as there are trading systems that offer a 99% win rate and yet they bankrupt you at the end the same is true in gambling, you need to find a balance, and for what I know about the topic that is the success rate of professional bettors, as I said that may not seem that impressive but when we add that many of them can earn something like 40% to 50% of their capital every season then we can easily see why a success rate above 53% is still good enough.

[Zilon]

It would be nice to try betting with money under similar conditions, but to be honest, I've never seen it as an option: you usually choose whether you're betting on the winner of the game, on the score or something else, and if you were betting on the score and didn't guess it, you're losing your bet. So conditional betting could be an interesting thing: you bet on the score at certain odds, but if you, say, don't get the score right but guess the outcome correctly, you still win some money, just not as much. Have you seen this being implemented? Would that be hypothetically interesting to you? Do you think sportsbooks could go for it or is it a bad business model for them, putting them at a disadvantage?

Conditional betting sounds colorful but I feel it would be a loss to sportsbooks since the generate funds from lost bets but on the other hand it would encourage more gamblers since it's conditional there could possibly be a chance of going home with something no matter how small other than loosing out completely. The only bets I have come across deals strictly on correct score anything outside that means an outright loss and so the gambler just have to try again

[ralle14]

Conditional betting sounds colorful but I feel it would be a loss to sportsbooks since the generate funds from lost bets but on the other hand it would encourage more gamblers since it's conditional there could possibly be a chance of going home with something no matter how small other than loosing out completely. The only bets I have come across deals strictly on correct score anything outside that means an outright loss and so the gambler just have to try again

If there would be more winners coming from those markets then sportsbooks could put some limits depending on how they want to do it (through max stake or odds). In a way they're similar to draw no bet, double chance and quarter handicaps i've mentioned before but from what i've seen when I browse the other gambling threads only a few gamblers go for those markets since favorites usually have better odds on 1x2 or asian total markets.

[Fortify]

I've recently taken part in the EPL prediction contest, and did pretty well there.

While Superbru says I'm in top-3% in the world among those who were predicting the outcomes of these matches, my success rate at predicting the winner of the match is actually only around 50%. So I'm pretty bad at predicting who wins the games. However, I'm okay if the stakes are differentiated, and you get 1 point for result, 1.5 for a close score and 3 for an exact score.
It would be nice to try betting with money under similar conditions, but to be honest, I've never seen it as an option: you usually choose whether you're betting on the winner of the game, on the score or something else, and if you were betting on the score and didn't guess it, you're losing your bet. So conditional betting could be an interesting thing: you bet on the score at certain odds, but if you, say, don't get the score right but guess the outcome correctly, you still win some money, just not as much. Have you seen this being implemented? Would that be hypothetically interesting to you? Do you think sportsbooks could go for it or is it a bad business model for them, putting them at a disadvantage?

I'm still confused by the terminology you have used, is a "superbru" something like a parlay or multi-bet? Is it just a free game that a bookmaker or gaming site has come up with for virtual money? If you find that you're really good at making predictions then maybe it is time to move into sportsbook gaming - start with a fixed amount, say $100, to see whether you're able to build it up over time or whether you just lose it. You might get much more favorable odds if you're just playing a simulator versus actually engaging in real money betting, they want to "build" new customers in this way. Be wary of parlay or multi-bets with real money however, as they are the best money earners for bookmakers.

[examplens]

I'm still confused by the terminology you have used, is a "superbru" something like a parlay or multi-bet?

Superbru is just a predictor game application. All players need to predict the exact score and collecting points.
For any exact score, you get 3pts.
If you miss a score for one goal but still correct predict winners or draw, you got 1.5pts
If you correctly predict the winner or drawn, but you missed the exact result for more than two goals you earn 1pts
there are some extra points. I'm talking about football, where I also participated but I find there many other sports competitions. Also Fantasy games.

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