Oh my bc.. don't want to repeat myself here, but surely $250k is reachable in this cycle, $3million might be a stretch for the next cycle but is reachable in the next cycle (which would be ending around 2025/2026).. and then such $3million should be easily reachable in the cycle after that which would be 2029/2030...
By the way, I really appreciate your other comments about just HODLing and not panicking.. which kind of goes back to the point that some people invest way too much, and then they get worried, and bitcoin has shown us time and time again that investing relatively small levels of bitcoin can end up compounding upon itself with the passage of time and play out quite nicely.. so even if your bear-ass-ish view of $250k being a struggle, you are still going to profit quite well from coins that you already bought.. or even from any that you pick up right now, in case you might not have any or feel that you do not have enough.
I have always taken a more cautious approach when compared to the other users. $250K is "reachable" in this cycle, but I would not say that it is "probable". Having an exchange rate of $250,000 per coin would mean that the market cap of BTC alone would be in the $4.5-5.0 trillion range. If you add in the altcoins as well, then there is a good chance that the cryptocurrency market cap may even move past that of gold. Once again, such a scenario within the next 6-7 months is possible, but not probable.
Fair enough with a kind of cautionary consideration of the term probable, and it is possible that we could be saying very similar things, but just using different words to say it.
On a personal financial level, I don't have very high expectations in terms of future financial increases, so I am quite content with something in the ballpark of 6% per year on average - but then there comes into play a bit of spoiledness once we have already reached certain prices, then the bottom of the BTC price moves up and the 6% per year needs to be calculated from a higher bottom, rather than from wherever the BTC price might have been one or two years earlier.. because it seems that we have transitioned into a different realm of calculation - so in that sense looking at the stock to flow price prediction model can be quite helpful to see that the BTC price has actually moved up a kind of ladder - which does not guarantee future BTC price but it kind of brings some foundation to the price where we are at.
Another good measure of the foundation seems to be the 208-week moving average, which is currently at about $13k... and in March 2020 when we had the liquidity event, the 208-week moving average was ONLY about $5k (even though the BTC prices dropped below it for nearly a couple of weeks). Anyhow, the higher prices in BTC have brought up the 208-week moving average quite considerably.. which seems to be a pretty damned conservative bottom indicator.
Regarding comparing BTC's market cap to gold, there is likely some fair considerations therein, and surely, I think that there is a lot of fair considerations to consider bitcoin to easily be somewhere between 10x the value of gold and 1,000x the value of gold - however, it is very difficult to reasonably speculate regarding how much time it could take to get to gold's market cap and even to exceed gold's market cap, especially getting to levels that are 1,000x or so of gold's market cap. There is a kind of battle that could take several years to play out and perhaps even several decades.
I think that you are getting quite distracted if you believe that shitcoins deserve much if any calculation in terms of how far bitcoin can go or what is reasonable in terms of both bitcoin's price performance or even kind of suggesting that bitcoin is meaningfully sharing much if any value with shitcoins. Yeah, I know that shitcoin pumpers and bitcoin naysayers talk some pretty BIG game, but in the end, there really is no there there in terms of Gresham law type considerations, and the value flows into the soundest of monies, which is bitcoin. Sure people are distracted by a variety of shitcoins and thinking that they might offer something concrete, but either that value is going to get absorbed into bitcoin or if there might be anything salvageable in any of the shitcoins, there could be some pegging (maybe like second or third or some other layers on top of bitcoin?), but still seems erroneous trying to calculate various shitcoin projects in terms of substantially or meaningfully taking away any of bitcoin's value propositions.
Of course, you are free to include shitcoins in your thinkenings about what is possible or what is going on in the space, but seems to be quite a big distraction in my thinking.. and sure, I am not denying that shitcoins exist and I am not even denying that people are investing in that nonsense as well as some of them making a lot of money from various shitcoins, but still muddy thinking to me if you cannot attempt at least consider their value (to the extent that they have any) as sucking off the teat of bitcoin rather than bitcoin actually suffering from any kind of meaningful competition or loss of value because of such distracting pee wee junior leagues nonsense.
A lot of the optimists assume that things will remain the same for the next 5-10 years.
I don't know who you believe is assuming that? We have a lot of things going on and a kind of war going on with the greatest wealth transfer in history. Why would anyone be presuming things to be staying the same? Almost anything can happen, and bitcoin does seem to be designed to be able to account for a variety of scenarios in the next 5-10 years.
Maybe you need to explain exactly how your presumptions differ from the presumptions of those of us who are too optimistic?
By the way, bitcoin hardly gives any shits about these various worldy issues, and if people find utility in bitcoin, then they will use it and if they don't then they won't, but bitcoin is already built with sound money incentives that value is quite likely to gravitate into it and does not really matter if you want to or not, if you fuck around and delay getting into it, then you are likely the one who is under-appreciating the power of bitcoin's already existing design and it is currently the best asset and system to deal with a variety of uncertainties, and it has already been up and running for 12.5 years in order to continue to show its various strengths to deal with new variables and let's see what happens and let's see if you can throw bitcoin off of its already inbuilt genius of a design that is able to deal with the knowns and the unknowns and even the unknown unknowns in way better ways than any other existing system that we currently know about.. so good thing if people make sure that they have some bitcoin in order to be in a better position on a personal level to have options no matter what happens.
But I can foresee a lot of conflict from the establishment.
You are referring to status quo powers that be such as governments and financial institutions. O.k.... so what?
The status quo powers have already been employing various tools to fight bitcoin, so sure, they can ramp it up and try some other tactics, but I doubt that it is really clear and obviously to their advantage to make these kinds of direct fights with bitcoin because bitcoin is world-wide, and sure they can attempt to coordinate fights, and then countries are going to take sides, and people will take sides too, and bitcoin seems to already be designed to be ready for these kinds side taking, and sure it's price might suffer during some period of these kinds of battles but so far we have not seen anything really meaningfully being thrown at it.. so your fears about potential battles seem to be the same nonsense that was asserted 6-7 years ago when I first got into bitcoin, but the fact that bitcoin has been around for 6-7 years since then and has gotten stronger and stronger, makes it quite a bit less convincing that bitcoin would not be prepared for such a battle and even question the extent to which such a battle is going to happen, like you are speculating (seemingly mostly blindly speculating).
El Salvador's announcement to make BTC as the legal tender is very significant. It means that Bitcoin is directly competing against the US Dollar.
So? These are still new developments that have one act on one side and then an act on the other side and seems to me that we should be watching how it plays out rather than just concluding that automatically one side is going to trounce the other side...
Being a skeptic, I would predict action from the US government authorities to stunt the growth of Bitcoin.
Ok.. let them do it. There is already decent embedding of bitcoin into various US systems, so they are going to have a lot of constituents that are NOT going to appreciate US Govt actions that strive to confront bitcoin too directly in terms of stunting its growth..
Now I don't want to dampen the mood here..
You are not really saying anything too novel, so far.
but I don't expect the next few years to be a cakewalk for cryptocurrency.
Here's some more muddied thoughts.
Are you talking about bitcoin or some amorphous concept?
If we are talking about bitcoin, then let's talk about bitcoin.
As far as cryptocurrencies, who fucking cares? There are a lot of them trying to be like bitcoin and they have a variety of central points of failure, so sure they are all over the place, and some governments and financial institutions likely consider the various shitcoins as potential allies to try to beat up on bitcoin that is much more difficult to touch.. so sure, various governments and banks might be using various shitcoins to try to get some grounds in undermining bitcoin, but it is not exactly clear how a lot of that is going to play out and for sure a lot of shitcoins are way too frothy so some purging of their baloney is likely in order.. but I cannot say whether purging of shitcoins in the short to medium term, if it happens, is automatically going to drag bitcoin down.. who knows? Some value will flow into bitcoin, especially in the longer term, but in the short term, prices and perceptions could go all over the place and there are going to be a decent number of casualties, including people who do not know what the fuck ios going on and they confuse bitcoin with shitcoins or some other nonsense like that, but there are also likely going to be an increasing number of folks who recognize that bitcoin remains the solid pillar in this whole mess.. so sure, it could well have some messy times in the short to medium term to figure it out and for individuals, institutions and governments to figure out how to play their allocations... and those who are gravitating into bitcoin will likely be rewarded in the long term, even though in the short to medium term there could be a decent amount of unclearness about if they are being rewarded (or not) for gravitating their financial and psychological (including their mental resources) into bitcoin.
In my case... Bitcoin has already made me rich from my investment in 2012. In case the exchange rate rises to $250K, then it will make me insanely rich. And if your prediction of $3 million is realized... then I will be unimaginably rich.
Sure.. you are not the ONLY one... and there are many of us who have already done quite well from bitcoin, and will increasingly do well because we are in the midst of the largest wealth transfer in history so folks with bitcoin will be greatly advantaged as compared to those who fight it or are not allocating in bitcoin. Another sense is that none of us likely even need to have very much bitcoin (in these times) in order to profit stupendously.. despite some possible upcoming battles that might be uncomfortable.
So, for you and I, we already may well be quite prepared because we have a certain value in bitcoin, but there are likely quite a few people who have either no bitcoin or they have only small amounts such as less than $100 or something like that. Sure, each of us can profit stupendously, even with small allocations into bitcoin, but we likely need to be a bit more aggressive than something less than $100. So, of course, there could be some larger lump sum investing or there could be DCA type investing for folks who don't have any kind of lump sum cash available. So sure, $10 per week or $100 per week could be meaningful and sufficiently aggressive strategies, but each person has to figure out his/her level of aggressiveness (if any).. Institutions and governments are in similar places regarding such decision making, and sure individuals, so far, have been lucky to front run institutions and governments, but in the past couple of years, and even these recent events, we are finding out that some institutions and governments are getting in, so could make it more expensive for individuals to garner as much of a decent stake in BTC, relatively speaking - even though still seems like we are quite early days, too... never really easy times, and most people seem to conclude that they are too late, but if they do not start to take a stake or to get set up, then they are likely to have fewer abilities (relatively speaking) to be able to garner as much of a stake in BTC, relatively speaking.
