Massive drop in Hashrate (50%) ~100 ExH/S

[philipma1957]

Well -

https://diff.cryptothis.com/


Latest Block:   689129  (27 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   74.1511%  (1674 / 2257.55 expected, 583.55 behind) - This is getting bigger

Previous Difficulty:   21047730572451.55                            
Current Difficulty:   19932791027262.74                            
Next Difficulty:   between 14780975681209 and 14891742285776
Next Difficulty Change:   between -25.8459% and -25.2902%
Previous Retarget:   June 13, 2021 at 4:06 PM  (-5.2972%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Friday at 9:51 AM  (in 3d 1h 29m 57s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Friday at 1:14 PM  (in 3d 4h 52m 12s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 18d 17h 45m 29s and 18d 21h 7m 44s
...

But 74.1511% simply needs tracking

in 12 hours see if it stays at 74.1511% or shifts to 75-76%

Variance plays less of a factor at this point.

I think but am not sure that the 74-76% Number has stayed that way after every 12 hours for the last 5 days

the actual number behind 583.55 has grown but of course it does not reflect  %. so if it grows to 586 in 12 hours the 74.1511% will move closer to 75%

[DaveF]

...though it doesn't take 6 months to get transformers...

Yes it does, small units yes are days or at most a couple of weeks.

Larger units, can easily take months and months. Unless you have a large amount of money to throw around. This is not even a friend of a friend thing. *I* know 2 places, both customers of the company I work for that had to have a 20MWA transformers replaced. Both took 120+ days between PSEG telling them they had to buy new ones and the delivery. And they were ordered within hours of the go-ahead since the issue was known. Could have had a pair of 10s in within a month or less. But the larger ones, nope.

*Yes you can get used ones, or non "name brand" ones, or imported ones for less. Good luck getting insured or an electrical inspector to sign off on it if you put those in.
And that is what causes people to think you can get them sooner. There are a lot of used / refurbished ones out there that are 100% fine. Ford can put them in their factories since Ford is responsible to Ford and a Ford electrician signs off on it and they are insured by some company they can boss around. Dave's customer in a small industrial building whos unit was failing when hitting 80% got no choice. They had to get new.

But, back to the hashrate drop. Due to the heat hitting the US Pacific NW I know there are some places that cannot keep up with cooling so they are shutting off miners during the day. If you based your cooling on 90F as max sustained outside temperature, with 95F as a limited daytime hours temperature and it's been hitting 100+ every day for hours and hours, yes you might be shutting some things off before your cooling system tells you it's going on vacation.  So there is some loss from there too.

-Dave

[philipma1957]

found some good comparison info from 8 hours ago. this show hash at less than 144 blocks a day bu better than -25.66% pace.
It is a small slice of the scale and variance could mean we are still off more than -25.65%

Next diff change ~ -25% (https://diff.cryptothis.com/)

i cross my fingers for you to crack the next block on the solo pool

Code:

Latest Block:	689104  (21 minutes ago)
Current Pace:	[b]74.3385%[/b]  (1649 / 2218.23 expected, [b]569.23 behind)[/b]
Previous Difficulty:	21047730572451.55                            
Current Difficulty:	19932791027262.74                            
Next Difficulty:	between 14818357450905 and 14945440970871
Next Difficulty Change:	between -25.6584% and -25.0208%
Previous Retarget:	June 13, 2021 at 10:06 PM  (-5.2972%)
Next Retarget (earliest):	Friday at 2:14 PM  (in 3d 6h 26m 14s)
Next Retarget (latest):	Friday at 6:05 PM  (in 3d 10h 16m 52s)
Projected Epoch Length:	between 18d 16h 8m 33s and 18d 19h 59m 10s

Well -

https://diff.cryptothis.com/


Latest Block:   689129  (27 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   74.1511%  (1674 / 2257.55 expected, 583.55 behind) - This is getting bigger

Previous Difficulty:   21047730572451.55                            
Current Difficulty:   19932791027262.74                            
Next Difficulty:   between 14780975681209 and 14891742285776
Next Difficulty Change:   between -25.8459% and -25.2902%
Previous Retarget:   June 13, 2021 at 4:06 PM  (-5.2972%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Friday at 9:51 AM  (in 3d 1h 29m 57s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Friday at 1:14 PM  (in 3d 4h 52m 12s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 18d 17h 45m 29s and 18d 21h 7m 44s
...

But 74.1511% simply needs tracking

in 12 hours see if it stays at 74.1511% or shifts to 75-76%

Variance plays less of a factor at this point.

I think but am not sure that the 74-76% Number has stayed that way after every 12 hours for the last 5 days

the actual number behind 583.55 has grown but of course it does not reflect  %. so if it grows to 586 in 12 hours the 74.1511% will move closer to 75%

I know no-one wants to talk about other algos but

bitmain has 3 cloud deals
Bitmain mines more than 1 algo

so when they go back online they will pick which Algorthims  go online first.

This give them a lot of very interesting choice.

ie do they deploy L7+ units over s19pros

and buy BTC with LTC and Doge earnings.

ie do they deploy Eth asics

and buy BTC with Eth earnings.

Remember they are a very large powerful business.

Making business choices like this are pretty easy.

L7+ gear destroys the profits of Any and all sha 256 gear on a $ per watt basis

Eth asic gear buries the the profits of any and all sha 256 gear on a $ per watt basis.

I know people hate this info but it is what it is.


https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/bitcoin/hashrate-chart
https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/ethereum/hashrate-chart
https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/dogecoin/hashrate-chart
https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/litecoin/hashrate-chart

[mikeywith]

But, back to the hashrate drop. Due to the heat hitting the US Pacific NW I know there are some places that cannot keep up with cooling so they are shutting off miners during the day. If you based your cooling on 90F as max sustained outside temperature, with 95F as a limited daytime hours temperature and it's been hitting 100+ every day for hours and hours, yes you might be shutting some things off before your cooling system tells you it's going on vacation.  So there is some loss from there too.

Allow me to praise myself, I did not have to shut down a single gear while temps here been ranging between 104F to 116.6F aka 40c to 47c even at night, many schools and businesses did shut down this week because of this, my gears on the other hand which are mostly S9s are mining non-stop, I suppose I got some pretty bad-ass cooling going on.

[philipma1957]

But, back to the hashrate drop. Due to the heat hitting the US Pacific NW I know there are some places that cannot keep up with cooling so they are shutting off miners during the day. If you based your cooling on 90F as max sustained outside temperature, with 95F as a limited daytime hours temperature and it's been hitting 100+ every day for hours and hours, yes you might be shutting some things off before your cooling system tells you it's going on vacation.  So there is some loss from there too.

Allow me to praise myself, I did not have to shut down a single gear while temps here been ranging between 104F to 116.6F aka 40c to 47c even at night, many schools and businesses did shut down this week because of this, my gears on the other hand which are mostly S9s are mining non-stop, I suppose I got some pretty bad-ass cooling going on.

That is smoking hot.
We did 97-98 f.  today.
Which is hot for us.

the asic room did pretty good.

Some downclocks. braiins has been very good at helping the gear stay up.

[stompix]

If you based your cooling on 90F as max sustained outside temperature, with 95F as a limited daytime hours temperature and it's been hitting 100+ every day for hours and hours, yes you might be shutting some things off before your cooling system tells you it's going on vacation.  So there is some loss from there too.

I'm not in a hot place like Mikeywith is, but still, 90F/32C (?) sounds like something usual for the start of the summer, the temperature in both Vienna and Prague have already hit that mark, and it's not July yet.  I just look at the average temperatures for Seattle and from what I see there have been quite a lot of times when it went past that so if you're building your farm with that little tolerance....

I'm more concerned about the dust than the heat, the last dust storm that managed to pass the Alps left such fine dust on everything, I'm seriously thinking of adding some Stihl blower filters from the old gear around the house to clean what's going inside once more.

I suppose I got some pretty bad-ass cooling going on.

The gear cooling might be badass but I think your own body cooling is far more intriguing, I can easily deal with -25C, but when it goes above 35-57C I turn into a useless mass of precooked jelly.

[DaveF]

I'm not in a hot place like Mikeywith is, but still, 90F/32C (?) sounds like something usual for the start of the summer, the temperature in both Vienna and Prague have already hit that mark, and it's not July yet.  I just look at the average temperatures for Seattle and from what I see there have been quite a lot of times when it went past that so if you're building your farm with that little tolerance....

https://www.npr.org/2021/06/29/1011269025/photos-the-pacific-northwest-heatwave-is-melting-power-cables-and-buckling-roads

It's far above normal, but it not just that. There is a difference between hitting 95F for an hour or two in the highest point of the day and then dropping down or like it is now with it just sitting at that temperature for hours and hours.

The gear cooling might be badass but I think your own body cooling is far more intriguing, I can easily deal with -25C, but when it goes above 35-57C I turn into a useless mass of precooked jelly.

I'm the opposite. I can take the heat, but the cold just makes me ache. I hate putting on layers and layers of clothing just to go outside for 10 minutes.

Here in NY, it's not been terrible. It's just fact that it's the end of June, and this is the middle of August kind of heat.

I know no-one wants to talk about other algos but
..
Bitmain mines more than 1 algo
so when they go back online they will pick which Algorthims  go online first.
This give them a lot of very interesting choice.
ie do they deploy L7+ units over s19pros
and buy BTC with LTC and Doge earnings.
ie do they deploy Eth asics
and buy BTC with Eth earnings.
Remember they are a very large powerful business.
Making business choices like this are pretty easy.
L7+ gear destroys the profits of Any and all sha 256 gear on a $ per watt basis
Eth asic gear buries the the profits of any and all sha 256 gear on a $ per watt basis.
I know people hate this info but it is what it is.

https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/bitcoin/hashrate-chart
https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/ethereum/hashrate-chart
https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/dogecoin/hashrate-chart
https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/litecoin/hashrate-chart

Why would they even bother to convert ltc and some other coins to BTC?
They can sit on it. They should have more then enough BTC to keep paying out what they have to.


It's going to be interesting to see what happens over the next few months. Will the big farms that are not part of the miner manufacturers come back online or will they start selling off their gear in with the plan to have money available for when the new more efficient gear comes online.

-Dave

[mikeywith]

L7+ gear destroys the profits of Any and all sha 256 gear on a $ per watt basis

I know people hate this info but it is what it is.

That's a good point, we all know there are a few people around here who can't stand the sight of comments talking about anything else that is not bitcoin even if it directly affects bitcoin, I am all about bitcoin and I don't like most of those other coins but if it's going to affect BTC in one way or the other, it's always worth mentioning.

The L7 will keep many folks away from mining BTC, which will help in keeping the difficulty low for us, do I care what happens to LTC? hell NO!, is that good for BTC miners? hell ya.

but when it goes above 35-57C I turn into a useless mass of precooked jelly.

As long as our gears are making coins, who cares about us?

[philipma1957]

1.2 gh in ltc on old L3+ gear burns 2000 watts

it earns 22-23 usd  in LTC/Doge pre power so 23/2 =  11.50 usd per 1000 watts


the new L7 does 9.5 gh or 174-182 usd in LTC/Doge so 182/3.3 = 55.15 usd per 1000 watts


Now the s17pro set to vanish firmware can do 40 th at 1000 watts 40 th is 9.20 per 1000 watts toss in the new diff

and do $9.20 x 1.27 = $11.69 per 1000 watts.

Now all major mined coins BTC, (LTC+DOGE),ETH

dropped in hash bigly (whether you like or hate Trump bigly is a cool for to use)

BTC dropped from

191.4 on May 9 to 84.5 July 1

https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/bitcoin/hashrate-chart

LTC/Doge
 LTC 396 June 7  178 July 1
https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/litecoin/hashrate-chart
Doge 446 June 10 224 July 1
https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/dogecoin/hashrate-chart

Eth
687 may 20   527 July 1
https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/ethereum/hashrate-chart

Notice Eth is the least fucked up most likely because it is the most widespread out of china. It is easy to own this piece of gear in a home

https://www.bestbuy.com/site/hp-omen-gaming-desktop-amd-ryzen-7-5800x-16gb-memory-nvidia-geforce-rtx-3060-ti-1tb-ssd-jet-black/6454567.p?skuId=6454567. mine while you sleep and game and use it as a pc. 


So the hashrate was fairly stable compared to BTC or LTC/DOGE

I am thinking if and when gear goes online if Bitmain still exists and has not been imprisoned by China they will be adding on LTC L7 ahead of any other gear.

If I can read the major hash rates on the 4 biggest pow networks so can they.

Should be very interesting to see shit come back on line.

Remember L7 is a killer beastly improvement over L3
and Their eth asic is like 30x 3080 cards.

I like to think there is a great silver lining to all of this.

BTC is stupidly undervalued!

It will go over 70 k this year more like 95-110k.

[Quickseller]

Each difficulty period, the difficulty cannot change by more than a factor of 4. This means the difficulty cannot increase by more than 400%, nor drop by more than 25% from one difficulty period to the next. This means that if it took five weeks to find 2016 blocks, the difficulty would only drop by 25%.

I have a strong feeling you are wrong, based on this code which enforces the difficulty adjustment limit

Code:

if (nActualTimespan < nTargetTimespan/4) nActualTimespan = nTargetTimespan/4; if (nActualTimespan > nTargetTimespan*4) nActualTimespan = nTargetTimespan*4;

It means the difficulty adjustment can be anything equals or less then 75% to the downside.

So for simplicity, a 10T difficulty can change to any number between 2.5 and 40, unless i am reading code wrong which is unlikely but i got old anyway.

You are correct, based on my reading of the relevant code, what actually happened, and the relevant wiki articles, the correct way of explaining maximum changes in the difficulty is that the difficulty can be no less than 25% of the previous difficulty, not that it can change downwards by no more than 25%.

The difference is a single word but it makes a big difference.

[mikeywith]

the relevant wiki articles, the correct way of explaining maximum changes in the difficulty is that the difficulty can be no less than 25% of the previous difficulty, not that it can change downwards by no more than 25%.

The difference is a single word but it makes a big difference.

I agree, it does seem like it has been poorly explained judging by the number of people who talked about it in the last adjustment, since this is a new event to most people including myself the >25% drop was very famous, I saw many folks talk about how were are going to pass the maximum change allowed, which does prove your point that most articles falsely (and hopefully not intentionally) explain it as a max drop as if it's 25%, I think it would be a lot better if they get rid of the 25% or 1/4 wording and just stick to 75% and %300 because

1- most people prefer to work with multiplication than division
2- most people care about the drop rather than the difficulty/target figure itself.

I suppose the fellow miners would prefer to hear they are getting say 50% more rewards than say the difficulty is going to drop to 7T, the latter is somehow very difficult to reflect on your mining earnings.

[philipma1957]

the relevant wiki articles, the correct way of explaining maximum changes in the difficulty is that the difficulty can be no less than 25% of the previous difficulty, not that it can change downwards by no more than 25%.

The difference is a single word but it makes a big difference.

I agree, it does seem like it has been poorly explained judging by the number of people who talked about it in the last adjustment, since this is a new event to most people including myself the >25% drop was very famous, I saw many folks talk about how were are going to pass the maximum change allowed, which does prove your point that most articles falsely (and hopefully not intentionally) explain it as a max drop as if it's 25%, I think it would be a lot better if they get rid of the 25% or 1/4 wording and just stick to 75% and %300 because

1- most people prefer to work with multiplication than division
2- most people care about the drop rather than the difficulty/target figure itself.

I suppose the fellow miners would prefer to hear they are getting say 50% more rewards than say the difficulty is going to drop to 7T, the latter is somehow very difficult to reflect on your mining earnings.

Well would you have thought the diff would be 14.4 and dropping to 12 and change.😊

It goes to show us all Mining ⛏ can be very unpredictable!

[kano]

...
BTC dropped from

191.4 on May 9 to 84.5 July 1

https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/bitcoin/hashrate-chart
...

Just noticed this number - I suggest you tell coinwarz they got it wrong.

The max Difficulty was 25046487590083.3 which means 179EH

I guess they looked at short term unreliable values that are expected to vary a lot, no doubt during that same diff change they would have seen much lower short term values as well as that high short term value, but ignored the low ones that average it out.

That was also a 21.53% diff jump to 25T in the middle of two big negative diff drops (-12.61% and -15.97%) so even 179EH could have been an over estimate.

[philipma1957]

...
BTC dropped from

191.4 on May 9 to 84.5 July 1

https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/bitcoin/hashrate-chart
...

Just noticed this number - I suggest you tell coinwarz they got it wrong.

The max Difficulty was 25046487590083.3 which means 179EH

I guess they looked at short term unreliable values that are expected to vary a lot, no doubt during that same diff change they would have seen much lower short term values as well as that high short term value, but ignored the low ones that average it out.

That was also a 21.53% diff jump to 25T in the middle of two big negative diff drops (-12.61% and -15.97%) so even 179EH could have been an over estimate.

yeah i agree it was probably based on a short time period and the network was a bit lucky.

I think 175-182 is a better number for alltime high.

Amazing we have  another drop over 10%. It is early maybe we comeback since the gear to bring us way back up is out there offline.

[mikeywith]

Well would you have thought the diff would be 14.4 and dropping to 12 and change.😊

It goes to show us all Mining ⛏ can be very unpredictable!

I have mentioned many times that we are unlikely to double the difficulty anytime soon and since last year my protection has been that difficulty will go up slowly unlike the common thought, but have I ever thought about going back to 14T? not even in my wildest dreams, if anyone told me this was going to happen a few months back I would have thought they were full of it.