Current Price action looks A LOT like the '18/'19 bear market bottom

[thecodebear]

What we're seeing recently looks just like the 2018/2019 bottom, except 10x higher.

1.
- 2017 we had a big rise from a bit over $1000 to $6000 from May to October of that year (6 months).
- 2020/2021 we had a big rise from about $10,000 to about $60,000 from October to Mar/April of this year (~6 months).

2.
- In late 2017 then Bitcoin went into super FOMO hype cycle and we saw it over 3x in about 6 weeks which led to a blow-off top and the following crypto winter.
- In 2021...well, we just didn't get any of that hype cycle and blow-off peak. Instead Bitcoin just went sideways as Ethereum and altcoins pumped. So instead of getting the massive drop from $20k back to $6k where that blow-off peak hype cycle started, this year the drop started from that pre-blowoff top position of $60k (equivalent to $6k in 2017).

3.
- In Nov 2018 after finally settling back to where that hype cycle started at $6k, we got textbook capitulation which over the course of a couple weeks dropped the price in half from $6k to the $3000s, where the price bottomed for about 4.5 months with resistance around $4000 or so and support in the low $3000s.
- In 2021, since we never got the huge bullrun-ending unsustainable hype cycle, the price just went straight into that two week 50% down textbook capitulation that dropped the price from around $60k to $30k. Now we seem to be bottoming in the $30,000s with resistance around $40,000 or so and support in the low $30,000s.



Looks like in 2021 we just skipped the main final explosive part of the bull market and went sideways instead, and so the price skipped the long drawn out bear market and went straight into final capitulation sending it to the bottom of the market. The market is just 10x larger than it was 3 years ago.
I'd expect continued ranging in the $30,000s for the most part (could go low $40,000s or even dip into $20,000s at points) for the next couple months and a breakout over $40k by end of summer. After that some ups and downs as market sentiment gradually builds bullish again but generally up, perhaps getting back to the around ATH around start of 2022.

[pooya87]

Looks like in 2021 we just skipped the main final explosive part of the bull market and went sideways instead, and so the price skipped the long drawn out bear market and went straight into final capitulation sending it to the bottom of the market. The market is just 10x larger than it was 3 years ago.

But we had the same thing in 2017 (not 2018) after having a big rise but with slight differences in timings and percentages. For example after price went 3x above the previous ATH to $3k it crashed hard down to $1.7k (-43%) and then started going sideways for nearly 2 months.
We had another one after reaching 5x above previous ATH from from last week of August to first week of October where price crashed hard from $5k all the way down to $2.8 (-44%) and went sideways for a little less than 2 months.

Similarly in 2021 after reaching 3x above previous ATH ie. $65k price it crashed hard (-53%) and is not going sideways and its been only a month and a half.
Here is a similar classic similar topic with people talking about how the bear market has started back in June 2017 when we had that 43% dump. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1974100.0;all
Page ~170 is filled with them.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Current Price action looks A LOT like the '18/'19 bear market bottom

In every point you bring in this thread you prove that current market situation is completely different from 2017 bubble. Not "A LOT like". Top is different (flat at x3 from ATH instead of pointy at x 20 ATH), dynamics of dump is different, price action at the bottom is different.

This should not surprise anybody since global environment is different (covid panic, FED doing brrrr +25% of dollar supply in 1 year), paradigm of bubble is different (digital gold in 2021 vs new technology that will replace fiats in 2017)

Everything is different. I don't know how you see that current market situation looks "A LOT like the '18/'19 bear market bottom".

[Charles-Tim]

Everything is different. I don't know how you see that current market situation looks "A LOT like the '18/'19 bear market bottom".

It is very possible what happened in the past in relation to price is happening in the present time, although I am not implying yet that the 2018 bear market is similar to what is happening now, but what I think is that the bear market might have began, I am thinking it will be difficult for Bitcoin price to make it up to $64000 for now until the next halving, although I could be wrong but yet a probability. What I just noticed is the $30000 strong support, but if Bitcoin can plummet below this price, likely another great bear market may set.

[hugeblack]

Personally, I started to see what is happening now is a reverse scenario of what happened at the end of 2017. We witnessed unjustified rises in the last 3 months of that year, which are similar to the unjustified rises that occurred in the first 3 months of this year.
Therefore, if I am right, we will witness the peak at levels slightly less than 100,000 and it will not be like the year 2017 (a break of more than 120 to 160,000 dollars)
Therefore, Current Price action is not looks A LOT like the '18/'19 bear market bottom because we are still in the stage of uncertainty in which news affects more than the normal behavior of the market.

18/19 was a normal phase.

[mk4]

I really wouldn't make investment decisions based on such data, to be honest. When you're going to make decisions off "it's the same compared to X, but different", well, I'm not saying that it wouldn't play out well, but if you did ended up making the right decision it would be one of those sort of "correlation does not imply causation" circumstances.

[thecodebear]

Current Price action looks A LOT like the '18/'19 bear market bottom

In every point you bring in this thread you prove that current market situation is completely different from 2017 bubble. Not "A LOT like". Top is different (flat at x3 from ATH instead of pointy at x 20 ATH), dynamics of dump is different, price action at the bottom is different.

This should not surprise anybody since global environment is different (covid panic, FED doing brrrr +25% of dollar supply in 1 year), paradigm of bubble is different (digital gold in 2021 vs new technology that will replace fiats in 2017)

Everything is different. I don't know how you see that current market situation looks "A LOT like the '18/'19 bear market bottom".

I'm pointing out what we got is a lot like 2017 in terms of price action, except we never got the end of 2017, so we skipped the big crash that resulted from what happened at the end of 2017 and went straight into the capitulation that dropped to the bottom of the market that took place a year later. Obviously the specifics of events in the world are different as they always are, but what the price action did looks very similar to 2017 to end of 2018 if you cut out that final blow-off top which we didn't get this year, which naturally means you cut out what happened as a result of it (the big crash from the blow-off top back down to the pre-blow-off top price), therefore we went straight from pre-blow off top top capitulation to bottom of the market. I think I pretty clearly explained in those three points in my original post what I meant. Maybe re-read.

[thecodebear]

Looks like in 2021 we just skipped the main final explosive part of the bull market and went sideways instead, and so the price skipped the long drawn out bear market and went straight into final capitulation sending it to the bottom of the market. The market is just 10x larger than it was 3 years ago.

But we had the same thing in 2017 (not 2018) after having a big rise but with slight differences in timings and percentages. For example after price went 3x above the previous ATH to $3k it crashed hard down to $1.7k (-43%) and then started going sideways for nearly 2 months.
We had another one after reaching 5x above previous ATH from from last week of August to first week of October where price crashed hard from $5k all the way down to $2.8 (-44%) and went sideways for a little less than 2 months.

Similarly in 2021 after reaching 3x above previous ATH ie. $65k price it crashed hard (-53%) and is not going sideways and its been only a month and a half.
Here is a similar classic similar topic with people talking about how the bear market has started back in June 2017 when we had that 43% dump. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1974100.0;all
Page ~170 is filled with them.

Well the corrections in 2017 were not similar to current price actions, they were similar to the corrections we got earlier this year. They fell just over 40%, not over 50%, despite the market being much smaller and therefore more volatile back then, and each time it took about a month and a half to get back to the previous peak and push higher. That doesn't really look at all like what is going on now. Doesn't seem at all likely that at the end of this month the price will be back over $60k and pushing significantly higher.

The two 2017 corrections you mention line up with the two early 2021 corrections quite well, just the 2021 ones took less time to come back up and were smaller, but that makes sense given the institutional demand keeping the price floor from falling as much or for as long. Whereas now it looks a lot more like a bear market....except we had no blow-off top to cause a bear market. So it actually looks a lot like what I said, bear market bottom capitulation phase, without the year long bear market preceding it.

I think the drop from $60k to $30k and the drop from $6k to $3k are so similar I don't even really need to explain that, though I did for clarity. This is not me calling a bear market in something like June 2017. June 2017 and Jan 2021 were similar corrections and in neither one did I remotely think we were entering a bear market, in fact I laughed both times when people thought it was the end of the bull market that had just started as the sentiment was clearly still very immediately bullish, so no I'm not doing a June 2017 type of thing here. Also, I'm saying we're NOT in a bear market, I'm saying we skipped the blow-off top so we also skipped the bear market that results from it. And I think it is pretty plain to see that the two early 2021 corrections were similar to the two big 2017 corrections, whereas the current price action is a different market event.

Now, if bitcoin suddenly pushes back up over $60k next month and to significant new ATHs soon after then you'd be right, but does anyone seriously think that's going to happen? I definitely think the price is going to be stuck low for a while, something longer than a 6 week correction but far less than a bear market / crypto winter. As I said, things looks a lot like a normal bitcoin macro cycle, except we never got the end of it so we never got what resulted from the end. We skipped the November 2017 to November 2018 big boom and bust, and the big bust only happens if the big boom happens. And because of that I also expect this bottom to last less than the 4.5 months the last bear market bottom lasted, perhaps more like 2-3 months, so I think we'll see a breakout of ~$40k this summer, because market sentiment won't get nearly as bad as it gets at the bottom of a long crypto winter.

Obviously what would prove this relationship I've pointed out here wrong would be if Bitcoin busts out of the $30,000s next month and shoots back to ATHs soon after, showing this is just a big correction, as you are saying, or if price continues crashing for a long time showing that we are in fact in a bear market. I think the relationship I've shown here and what I expect to happen are much more likely than either of those two scenarios, but time will tell!

Personally I'm holding off making any moves with my trading stash and staying in cash with it until a clear move is made - either significantly down into the $20k's perhaps showing we're in a bear market, or significantly above $40k showing we're in the next bull phase of this market, which I expect as I said will be later this summer. I'd love for you to be right and in no time we'll be back to pushing ATHs, but looking at things that just seems absurdly optimistic and it looks like my analysis is probably much more accurate and it could be a 2-3 until the next breakout and six months before we're back to ATHs. Which would also fit in line perfectly with the market thesis I've had since the beginning of this year which says we're in a long term bull market that'll take the shape of a bunch of medium sized bull runs and 3-6 month cool off periods. I now expect the first of these cycles within the larger bull market to play out over the course of about a year now, from oct 2020 to late 2021, at which point we'll surpass the ATH and move into the next medium cycle of what I think could be a decade long bull market.

Feel free to disagree. I'm often wrong on short term price action cuz that's impossible to predict, though here I'm staying away from any short term analysis. What has happened the past 8 months looks just like the market structure I've been postulating about since beginning of this year, and I just realized the relationship I posted in this thread and it seems very relevant to what is going on and also plays into my long term market thesis.




The tl;dr prediction from this analysis (which matches up with my broader market thesis for the next decade) is I expect we are bottoming now and the next half year will be bottom, break out, and build back to ATH. Then see new ATHs in early 2022 or perhaps before end of year if positive news/sentiment can overpower FUD a bit more quickly.

[ningrum]

In 2020-2021, Bitcoin has indeed gone up by more than 1000%,
so it is very natural that the price of Bitcoin will correct up to 100% or even be corrected up to 500% this year, which is clear,
we must not be careless, because bears can take over at any time. he likes it, if you already have more profit than Bitcoin and altcoins,
I suggest taking it and wait until market conditions improve again

[slaman29]

It does seem so indeed but if this is the right timing then we need to wait 2 more years for another rally to the old ATH? Sounds okay for me but I think I and many others will be a little disappointed we didn't even try to reach 100k. But for me a price bottom now is quite optimistic considering pandemic stuff and all that.

[BrewMaster]

very interesting theory but i think we have to first wait at least another month to figure out what THIS is because right now as we are right in the middle of it and the market crash was very suspicious (started with a big FUD and continued that way) we can't really analyze anything based on that.

but whatever this is, in the past decade whenever price rise slowed down it has been good for bitcoin.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

I'm pointing out what we got is a lot like 2017 in terms of price action, except we never got the end of 2017, so we skipped the big crash that resulted from what happened at the end of 2017 and went straight into the capitulation that dropped to the bottom of the market that took place a year later. Obviously the specifics of events in the world are different as they always are, but what the price action did looks very similar to 2017 to end of 2018 if you cut out that final blow-off top which we didn't get this year, which naturally means you cut out what happened as a result of it (the big crash from the blow-off top back down to the pre-blow-off top price), therefore we went straight from pre-blow off top top capitulation to bottom of the market. I think I pretty clearly explained in those three points in my original post what I meant. Maybe re-read.

A tomato looks a lot like banana. Banana is just not red and also has different shape and also different hardness ... but they both looks the same but ...

No. Everything is different. 2017 bubble was different from 2021 bubble in every possible way. So as current price action.



There is no value from price predictions based on 2 charts that looks the same only when you change 80% of it. I doubt that there is any value from price predictions based on 2017 bitcoin performance even if charts would like exactly the same. Its different bubble paradigm, different profile of average investor, different volumes, different market condition, different global environment, different interest rated, different global dept.

[janggernaut]

Looks same or not, i don't care. Even if bitcoin price keep goes down, i will be buy more, and if it's go higher and higher, i will wait it until hit $100,000. Investor are waiting when bear comes because they can buy more, different with trader, who hate bear market so much since they will prefer to cut loss their daily trade.

[Coyster]

The tl;dr prediction from this analysis (which matches up with my broader market thesis for the next decade) is I expect we are bottoming now and the next half year will be bottom, break out, and build back to ATH. Then see new ATHs in early 2022 or perhaps before end of year if positive news/sentiment can overpower FUD a bit more quickly.

You could prolly be correct, the thing is just how low do you think the price will get to, cause the present price of $36k is pretty high to be called a bottom phase imo, I believe Bitcoin will stay around this price for quite some time, though I don't expect it to go lower than that. And mind you that with predictions from the halving of last year, users actually expected the bull run in the later/end part of this year (2021), but it instead started from late last year, thus, the end of this year could prolly still present a new ATH for Bitcoin.

[hatshepsut93]

It's still early to draw conclusions, and it's likely that a big move will come after this sideways trading in 30-40k range. Either we'll slip even further, or the bull run will reignite. This crash already makes this bull run not like the previous bull runs, so it's time to stop looking at the past to make predictions about our future. Sooner or later it was bound to break, Bitcoin can't grow exponentially based on just FOMO and hype.

[thecodebear]

The tl;dr prediction from this analysis (which matches up with my broader market thesis for the next decade) is I expect we are bottoming now and the next half year will be bottom, break out, and build back to ATH. Then see new ATHs in early 2022 or perhaps before end of year if positive news/sentiment can overpower FUD a bit more quickly.

You could prolly be correct, the thing is just how low do you think the price will get to, cause the present price of $36k is pretty high to be called a bottom phase imo, I believe Bitcoin will stay around this price for quite some time, though I don't expect it to go lower than that. And mind you that with predictions from the halving of last year, users actually expected the bull run in the later/end part of this year (2021), but it instead started from late last year, thus, the end of this year could prolly still present a new ATH for Bitcoin.

Why do you say it's high for a bottom phase? So far it has bottomed at $30k, that's only 50% higher than the previous top. That's not particularly high at all. The bear market bottom 2+ years ago was 3x the previous cycle's top. I'd say $30k seems just right as far as bottoms go. Twice earlier this year we got correction bottoms a little under $30k, so it isn't surprising the same general area would be the bottom when the market cooled off.

It could absolutely go lower. I give that a reasonable probability of happening, though I suspect either it wouldn't go much lower or if it did it would immediately spike back up and so would just be a flash crash. But it is also very likely to not go lower than $30k. Could go either way, but just like in late 2018 / early 2019, nobody could be sure if low $3000s or high $2000s or whatever would be the absolutely bottom, but it was obvious bitcoin was in the process of bottoming and in the bottom range when it got down to the $3000s, and that's the point we are at right now.

The only real question is how long does is stay in this bottom range. I'd guess price could spend a couple months in the bottoming out phase. Right now it's looking real strong pushing up to $39k, but just a few days ago it was looking real weak at $31k and like it might break down through $30k. It could totally break out upwards sooner than I think, but I'm assuming it'll take a couple of months. I think it's pretty clear that the rich are accumulating bitcoin right now and that the panic sellers have mostly run out of steam. But there is always the chance that some misinterpreted or overexaggerated piece of news causes another panic to drop things a bit lower or keep the price bottoming for longer. Just like it's possible that Facebook or someone announces tomorrow that they bought two billion dollars of Bitcoin and it breaks right through the ~$40k resistance and is back in a bull market. Regardless, it's only a matter of time (weeks or a small number of months, not years) before bitcoin is heading upwards again to new ATHs.

[thecodebear]

I'm pointing out what we got is a lot like 2017 in terms of price action, except we never got the end of 2017, so we skipped the big crash that resulted from what happened at the end of 2017 and went straight into the capitulation that dropped to the bottom of the market that took place a year later. Obviously the specifics of events in the world are different as they always are, but what the price action did looks very similar to 2017 to end of 2018 if you cut out that final blow-off top which we didn't get this year, which naturally means you cut out what happened as a result of it (the big crash from the blow-off top back down to the pre-blow-off top price), therefore we went straight from pre-blow off top top capitulation to bottom of the market. I think I pretty clearly explained in those three points in my original post what I meant. Maybe re-read.

A tomato looks a lot like banana. Banana is just not red and also has different shape and also different hardness ... but they both looks the same but ...

No. Everything is different. 2017 bubble was different from 2021 bubble in every possible way. So as current price action.



There is no value from price predictions based on 2 charts that looks the same only when you change 80% of it. I doubt that there is any value from price predictions based on 2017 bitcoin performance even if charts would like exactly the same. Its different bubble paradigm, different profile of average investor, different volumes, different market condition, different global environment, different interest rated, different global dept.

Looks like you entirely missed the point. It's okay though.