Just finishing Mark Spitznagel's book The Dao of Capital right now and thinking about how potential extreme volatility (falling to 20K or below) might make buying out of the money puts an intelligent idea.
Would the more experienced traders here have any thoughts on this?
The 4 year cycle looks like it's going to repeat itself but my expectations aren't really like that. My hope goes up right away.
There is a big wall around the price of 29800$ if this disappears then many people predict it will drop at the 20000$ level.
If you look at the previous year this has happened when ATH was in 2017 and it fell around 3000$. It's actually normal to see this cycle, maybe even this will be a moment to buy back.
I think that we are far from the 2021's all-time high but I don't think that the past will repeat. 2016-2017 was really the boom for cryptocurrencies and a lot of things have happened after that. Simply, there is not a single reason for bitcoin to be 200K and in a similar range. Also, the market isn't a full of smart people, 90% if not more come to become rich the next day. These kind of people are easily manipulated and drop price immediately if something, even a slightly negative happens. And the number of people who really support the project and really use this coin for it's purposes, are ridiculously low.
Elon Musk seriously hurt the bitcoin. Demand on this coin grew but it wasn't quality demand, it was a crowd of dreamers.
