Number of transactions declining in last 2 months.

[Febo]

Had anyone noticed how drastically decreased the number of Bitcoin transactions in last 2 months?  In last 5 years with the exception of 2018 Bitcoin had between 9 million and 10 million transactions every month. In April and May there was around 8 million and this month seems to be even below 7 million. There was no such bad month in the last 4 years. Is this a clear sigh we are already yin bear market or reasons are more fundamental and more serious for Bitcoin than just price and speculation.

[Poker Player]

Had anyone noticed how drastically decreased the number of Bitcoin transactions in last 2 months?  In last 5 years with the exception of 2018 Bitcoin had between 9 million and 10 million transactions every month. In April and May there was around 8 million and this month seems to be even below 7 million. There was no such bad month in the last 4 years. Is this a clear sigh we are already yin bear market or reasons are more fundamental and more serious for Bitcoin than just price and speculation.

Can't that just be a sign that people are just holding? Not many people buying but no many selling either. In fact, rather than a bear market, we have been moving sideways lately, which has been good for sending transactions with cheap fees.

[bitbunnny]

Had anyone noticed how drastically decreased the number of Bitcoin transactions in last 2 months?  In last 5 years with the exception of 2018 Bitcoin had between 9 million and 10 million transactions every month. In April and May there was around 8 million and this month seems to be even below 7 million. There was no such bad month in the last 4 years. Is this a clear sigh we are already yin bear market or reasons are more fundamental and more serious for Bitcoin than just price and speculation.

Can't that just be a sign that people are just holding? Not many people buying but no many selling either. In fact, rather than a bear market, we have been moving sideways lately, which has been good for sending transactions with cheap fees.

That might be one of the reasons however some more thorough and deeper analysis should be carried out to get to more precise answer. Also, transaction fees are not higher comparing to previous period so why such decline might remain slight mistery but the real reason at the end might be quite simple.

[jossiel]

It's probably because of the high price of bitcoin and everyone starts to hold their bitcoins and started to be firm in holding. There could be more transactions in the past years but it also includes the small transactions.

With the news that we've got lately for this bull run, there has been millions worth in a single transaction and maybe those tx's have been merged and that's one factor why it's lessen in the last two months.

[thecodebear]

So far I'd say it seems pretty clear we're not in a bear market, just a cool off period of the bull market, so I wouldn't worry about a bear market unless the price tumbles down to like $20k.

I'd say a mix of people are holding, there's more third party networks (ie Paypal) operating with Bitcoin now which means there are many more transactions happening for each on-chain transaction that there used to be, and also after a big price fall txs tend to clear up as well.

Wouldn't think it's anything to worry about.

[STT]

Alot more internal transactions I think and fees are very discouraging to activity, I'm never too bullish on BTC when fees get silly because Im determined the mainstream and quite ordinary budgets of the masses are far more important then the latest statement from Elon.
   I'd say its a reflection of the price and maybe the percentage of speculators.    Consider the amount of BTC being held inside a fund which then resells that unit of ownership and adds a management fee and so on, its no longer an on chain transaction at that point.   We certainly do have an ongoing trend of mainstream FIAT involvement or put simply holders.   I'd rather crypto activity rises but it wont be linear how we develop.

[GreatArkansas]

Is this a clear sigh we are already yin bear market or reasons are more fundamental and more serious for Bitcoin than just price and speculation.

Very possible, we also saw this kind of action of Bitcoin for multiple bear markets we experienced.
If this is already the bear market, I am glad that we are still far from the all-time-high of the previous bull run which is around $19,000.
Which is that is a very good thing, it's kinda Bitcoin as time goes by becomes more mature and less volatile.

[pooya87]

It is not drastic decrease and it is like before the new year when price was stable like today. There are a couple of factors that always contribute to the number of transactions and the main one is the price change. Price doesn't necessarily have to go down to decrease the number of transactions it has to stay stable and right now price is moderately stable so people are staying away from trading which means their bitcoins are already withdrawn from exchanges and are in their wallets not moving hence less on-chain traffic.

Another big factor is the shitcoin market pump and dumps. The past month we saw the huge altcoin dump and then their slower decline which practically ended the pump and dumps for now. Again this means that traders pulled their bitcoins out and are not going back again. Bitcoin stability and altcoin dumps means that they are also not going in and out between the two markets hence a lot less on-chain transactions.

P.S. Price being stable is NOT called bear market!

[Psynthax]

Maybe the holders of bitcoin are holding so hard, as you see usually those with big capital invest in bitcoin instead of altcoins and probably because people who
make small amount of transaction choose to use other altcoins because of the fee.Remember that bitcoin in 2018 was frequently used for paying things online, now most of payment gateway also accepts other cryptocurrencies that are cheap in fee
so it could boost the number of transactions but I really doubt it's because of bearish market.

[adaseb]

Transactions and volumes are down in the last month or so. I think this has to do with it being Summer. Generally markets trade sideways in the Summer hence the term "Sell in May and Go away!".

Everything is down, transactions for both ETH and BTC. Trading volumes are down. Open interest is down for derivaties. The futures premiums are completely flat. The amount of search terms for crypto and twitter posts are also down.

Who knows. It might be like 2013, where it peaked in April and then bottomed in July while making a new ATH back in November.

[Wexnident]

How the hell did the number of transactions relate to a bear market. Decreasing transactions just simply means that less people are exiting the market, and the same could be entering. It just simply means they've either left for good, or are holding, and seeing as the price isn't really dumping, it's more likely that they're actually holding it and are just waiting for price to actually change. I mean, would you, as a trader, go in and out of a market that is currently stable? That's just a plain waste of money to pay for fees if I do say so for myself. I guess interest is completely flat since there hasn't been any changes, but no interest doesn't equate to a failing market.

[Wind_FURY]

It is not drastic decrease and it is like before the new year when price was stable like today. There are a couple of factors that always contribute to the number of transactions and the main one is the price change. Price doesn't necessarily have to go down to decrease the number of transactions it has to stay stable and right now price is moderately stable so people are staying away from trading which means their bitcoins are already withdrawn from exchanges and are in their wallets not moving hence less on-chain traffic.

Another big factor is the shitcoin market pump and dumps. The past month we saw the huge altcoin dump and then their slower decline which practically ended the pump and dumps for now. Again this means that traders pulled their bitcoins out and are not going back again. Bitcoin stability and altcoin dumps means that they are also not going in and out between the two markets hence a lot less on-chain transactions.

P.S. Price being stable is NOT called bear market!

It’s a CRAB MARKET! The price is “crabbing” from side to side. It’s probably an indication that buyers and sellers have reached an equilibrium. Buyers bid low and don’t want to FOMO, then sellers bid too high and want to sell higher for a better deal. Market might also be in “pre-FOMO”.

[davis196]

Had anyone noticed how drastically decreased the number of Bitcoin transactions in last 2 months?  In last 5 years with the exception of 2018 Bitcoin had between 9 million and 10 million transactions every month. In April and May there was around 8 million and this month seems to be even below 7 million. There was no such bad month in the last 4 years. Is this a clear sigh we are already yin bear market or reasons are more fundamental and more serious for Bitcoin than just price and speculation.

The lower number transactions means that more Bitcoins have been concentrated in the hands of less people/companies.More people and companies have decided to just HODL their Bitcoins,instead of sending them here and there.Another major factor are the increased transaction fees.
Anyway,having less transactions also means that mass Bitcoin adoption isn't going anywhere and the crypto community simply isn't growing.This is disturbing...

[stompix]

Another major factor are the increased transaction fees.
Anyway,having less transactions also means that mass Bitcoin adoption isn't going anywhere and the crypto community simply isn't growing.This is disturbing...

Actually, fees have hit rock bottom yesterday and we still had empty blocks so, no fees aren't the problem anymore, but individual usage is indeed declining.
And I'm saying individual because while the number of tx has indeed dropped to the lowest since 2018 there is another way of looking at things:



While outputs have also dropped a bit, they are still a lot over 2018, close in line with 2020, so it means that the growth is coming from people and services making multiple payments and once back in 2018 we had an average of 4k per block now we're at 6k.

Anyhow usage was already going down, maybe now that LN has gained a bit of attention with the Salvador news we might see merchants adopting it even in other parts of the world, otherwise, in one two years, probably 90% of all the tx will be in and out of exchanges.

[NeuroticFish]

I find this normal. The bulk of transactions is related to trading bots. If everybody is waiting for something to happen (i.e. a recovery near the last ATH), the number of transactions cannot be too high.
And there's something else too: centralized exchanges and wallets learned to send in bulk. This means that you may get to maybe 5-10 times less transactions, but fatter ones.

[Fundamentals Of]

This might mean that people are looking forward to the days in the near future when Bitcoin would once again rise past $60,000. It means people don't want to spend now because the price is still very low. They probably have much confidence that the price would still make it beyond the recorded ATH within the year. Why would they spend their Bitcoin at $39,000 when weeks from now it could once again get back at $60,000?

[philipma1957]

Had anyone noticed how drastically decreased the number of Bitcoin transactions in last 2 months?  In last 5 years with the exception of 2018 Bitcoin had between 9 million and 10 million transactions every month. In April and May there was around 8 million and this month seems to be even below 7 million. There was no such bad month in the last 4 years. Is this a clear sigh we are already yin bear market or reasons are more fundamental and more serious for Bitcoin than just price and speculation.

Traders were crushed when coins dropped from 64k to 31k

billions of dollars of wealth were lost.

So my guess is the degenerate traders were tapped out and thus movement has slowed.

Also smart traders are able to hodl coins that are down.

Ie purchased at 50k down to 40k if you hodl you have not lost.

So you tapped out the traders that were nuts.
only smart traders are left that took a break and are hodling.


I ladder buy and sell.

I have buys at

31031
30030
29029
28028
27027
26026
25025
24024
23023
22022
21021

and sells at

55055
56056
57057
58058
59059
60060
62062
64064
66066
68068
70070
72072
74074

and i hodl a lot off the exchange

i have not done many trades sonce we are in the middle zone

32k to 55k

[Kittygalore]

Probably people are not buying things with bitcoin yet and they only hodl because the prices are still going low and they might want to hold on to it for awhile not doing anything with it for now.

[sheenshane]

We're all here having assumptions here but there's no accurate answer that I found above.

The reason could be;

• Traders might trap when there's a sudden correction of the price and prefer to Hold their asset on exchange
• At a low price, everyone prefers to hold than spending it
• Know how to send bulk transaction or start using Light Network
• It's summertime, and time to have a break in trading

If you will see, mostly when the price was dumped no one will cash out or trade their Bitcoin.  It's a sign that they keep holding their assets and didn't get panic sell even there's a FUD that keeps spreading.

[hugeblack]

The rate of transactions is not necessarily related to the price. There are many things that have changed since 2017, for example:
 - The increase in transfers outside the network: This case includes the lightning network and all the ways that lead to the closure of currencies.
 - Increased transfers within centralized platforms: such as Binance, Coinbase, PayPal and others.
 - Bitcoin fees are higher compared to altcoins.

all above will make people not using bitcoin main chain