Number of transactions declining in last 2 months.

[lolxxxx]

Directly proportional to Holding.

People are not giving a shit about tweets from influencers, They are trusting the instinct that crypto is the future and in long term, they will earn great profits. No matter what happens in a few weeks or months in the long term crypto is everything.

People are just holding and holding and holding. (at least the people I know)

Regards

[Fundamentals Of]

Had anyone noticed how drastically decreased the number of Bitcoin transactions in last 2 months?  In last 5 years with the exception of 2018 Bitcoin had between 9 million and 10 million transactions every month. In April and May there was around 8 million and this month seems to be even below 7 million. There was no such bad month in the last 4 years. Is this a clear sigh we are already yin bear market or reasons are more fundamental and more serious for Bitcoin than just price and speculation.

Traders were crushed when coins dropped from 64k to 31k

billions of dollars of wealth were lost.

So my guess is the degenerate traders were tapped out and thus movement has slowed.

Also smart traders are able to hodl coins that are down.

Ie purchased at 50k down to 40k if you hodl you have not lost.

So you tapped out the traders that were nuts.
only smart traders are left that took a break and are hodling.


I ladder buy and sell.

I have buys at

31031
30030
29029
28028
27027
26026
25025
24024
23023
22022
21021

and sells at

55055
56056
57057
58058
59059
60060
62062
64064
66066
68068
70070
72072
74074

and i hodl a lot off the exchange

i have not done many trades sonce we are in the middle zone

32k to 55k

You must have a very deep pocket to be able to do this and make a significant profit. I used to trade with USDT-BTC and attempted to do this also. I later on realized I shouldn't have even started it. I came out short of funds, either BTC or USDT. I found myself hanging at a certain price that left me no more step to make. Had I done this when the price of Bitcoin started rising from $20,000 to $60,000 and then falling from $64,000 to $30,000, I still would've ended up stuck in the middle.

[CryptopreneurBrainboss]

If you will see, mostly when the price was dumped no one will cash out or trade their Bitcoin.  It's a sign that they keep holding their assets and didn't get panic sell even there's a FUD that keeps spreading.

Then who are those selling that keep declining the market. If I'm not mistaken, the whale just manipulate, they don't take part in the day to day trading. They could just make one of few trades that'll cause panic in the market then the retail investors begin selling their bags to either secure profit or minimize lost in anticipation of buying cheaper as the believe the price is to decline further.

I won't be too quick to come to a conclusion on what this development is trying to say as it could mean many things. Lets not forget people equally hold there coins on exchange so their activities within the exchange can't be monitored as it doesn't get recorded in an open ledger (blockchain)

[SFR10]

There was no such bad month in the last 4 years.

Perhaps I'm a bit weird since I think it's the exact opposite <sup>[it led to fees going down drastically as well]
- Based on all of the previous ATH moments that were followed by crashes of that extent [purely based on what I've experienced and could recall], I expected this to happen and it did [quite normal].</sup>

[erep]

I conclude that the number of bitcoin transactions decreases every month as the number of holders increases, whether it's just buying it at the current lowest price or at the highest price then both are very optimistic that the market will recover soon, for me it's a positive thing because people can control themselves from FUD and they know the market is being manipulated by big whales.

[dkbit98]

Some people have taken profits from trading at all time high prices and they are back to hodling BTC and cooling down, number of transaction was showing record low in last few weeks
and good thing about that is that we can pay much lower fees and consolidate our coins more, but it all looks to me like a quiet time before a big storm.

[barbara44]

If you will see, mostly when the price was dumped no one will cash out or trade their Bitcoin.  It's a sign that they keep holding their assets and didn't get panic sell even there's a FUD that keeps spreading.

Then who are those selling that keep declining the market. If I'm not mistaken, the whale just manipulate, they don't take part in the day to day trading. They could just make one of few trades that'll cause panic in the market then the retail investors begin selling their bags to either secure profit or minimize lost in anticipation of buying cheaper as the believe the price is to decline further.

I won't be too quick to come to a conclusion on what this development is trying to say as it could mean many things. Lets not forget people equally hold there coins on exchange so their activities within the exchange can't be monitored as it doesn't get recorded in an open ledger (blockchain)

I think he meant that AFTER the fall, like after the fall price didn't went down any longer so it is only the people who are holding that is left. Which makes sense, when the volume is down it is the volatility that is down and not the price, because there are tons of people who would not sell under 30k whereas not as many people who would sell over 50k, so the drop makes sense and staying here makes sense at the same time as well.

I do not know what is going to happen in the future, I never do, but I will not make my decision based on volume for sure, it is not a good indicator, there are tons of other indicators to go with and volume is not one of them. What does it give you, people not buying/selling? I mean it does mean people are not buying but as much as that we also have people are not selling at the same place as well, if it was a high on selling then the price wouldn't be up now and sellers would drop the price to sell more and more, so it is just... stable now that's it.

[Ararbermas]

 Its very obvious why it happened on this month because after the hard fall a bunch of ppl hide at the very stable coin in the market wherein probably until now since market still not showing good progress..  And for me this situation cannot be compared from the history of bitcoin itself in my personal opinion, because there's a big difference to be honest and seems this the most worst situation because of being so stagnant since the massive decline ended..

[dothebeats]

Perhaps a lot more people are turning into long-term hodlers? That or very few people have been really utilizing bitcoin for transactions. The latter is understandable considering how ‘expensive’ bitcoin transfers are if we were to convert fees to USD, which a lot of people have been doing since the rise of bitcoin’s price. Either way, a periodof decline on network activity usually happens after price crashes, so it could be hinted to that—but of course we’re not entirely sure.

[stompix]

Perhaps a lot more people are turning into long-term hodlers? That or very few people have been really utilizing bitcoin for transactions. The latter is understandable considering how ‘expensive’ bitcoin transfers are if we were to convert fees to USD, which a lot of people have been doing since the rise of bitcoin’s price.

That's the thing that makes this more "interesting" let's say!
For the first time this year, we had an empty mempool, for the first time we had 1sat/b tx getting confirmed during the week and not just on weekends with half-full blocks being mined sometimes for almost an hour.

I don't know if you can label all of them long term holders and I assume a lot of them are just waiting for a moment to cut losses or just to rake in a small profit but at the same time, I bet a lot of this new generation holders are not keeping their coins in their own wallets, leaving coins on exchanges or custodial wallets to have them ready to dump probably so less traffic back and for between wallets.  Oh, and I know people have kept saying that the number of coins on exchanges has declined but that is only true if somehow you're able to monitor all addresses an exchange has and to date, nobody has been able to that even for Coinbase alone.

Funny though, now you can buy a cup of coffee with 4 cents fee but....nobody wants coffee anymore!

[magneto]

Yeah, all signs definitely point towards a bearish season for BTC.

The macro conditions are somewhat deteriorating as well. Stock prices have dropped somewhat in terms of the Dow's adjustment, and commodity prices such as gold and silver have also dropped significantly.

Investor sentiment overall has pulled back drastically with prospects of continued future pumps a lot more slim. Be wary and on the lookout for cheap coins here.

[adaseb]

Yeah, all signs definitely point towards a bearish season for BTC.

The macro conditions are somewhat deteriorating as well. Stock prices have dropped somewhat in terms of the Dow's adjustment, and commodity prices such as gold and silver have also dropped significantly.

Investor sentiment overall has pulled back drastically with prospects of continued future pumps a lot more slim. Be wary and on the lookout for cheap coins here.

Stock prices barely dropped due to the FOMC. Today we had a gap down on the stock indicies because SPY and Dow30 ETFs had a dividend so thats why it dropped a large amount. The bigger drops were with Gold and Silver. However bitcoin seems to have taken a bigger drop.

This is bearish because it sets a bad sentiment. People are assuming inflation is not bad as they assumed and people are buying the dollar again. The dollar was very cheap and people want to get in now before it goes higher and higher. So bitcoin is suffering as a result.

Who knows. Maybe next week this entire move can easily reverse and we can be at ATH in stocks and BTC might go back >$40K again.

[amishmanish]

Several good possibilities already pointed out. Maybe someone should compile them. The Hodling maybe a reason. For example, The inertia of not having sold at ATH and then waiting for the ATH to even use Bitcoin for things you normally were doing already, i something that actually happens.

One thing that I feel is contributing is the decrease is shifting of crypto investment scene towards centralized coins and several other platforms. These "projects" keep mushrooming beyond anything we expect. After the bloodbath of ICOs, you'd think that people would learn their lessons and not throw money on repetitive, clearly scam projects on centralized chains. Seems that I am wrong. Psychology and greed works differently. People still continue to put money into these shady projects and keep getting rugged.

It doesn't matter to them as long as they can sell their tokens at a higher price within a few days. They then move onto the next one with hype. This has become a rinse and repeat for devs as well as communities. Its literally madness and it shows no signs of slowing down.

Earlier, If you had to put money into these projects, you needed BTC. Now, these people are content taking up any token as long as they can find liquidity for that in Uniswap. Hayden maybe pretty proud of his unicorn but I think the time isn't far when regulators will come down pretty heavily on the AMMs that are enabling these pump and dump schemes.

[buwaytress]

Didn't notice it but I was expecting mempool to fill up after the last difficulty adjustment (13 or 14% was it?) but could still send 1 sat/byte txs and they went through fine.

Not sure if anyone mentioned, didn't scroll every page but maybe it's also layer2 eating up some of those txs? Lightning use with the Arnhem bitcoin city merchs have been slowly picking up after a huge drop during Covid lockdown (shops finally open again in past couple of weeks). Small nett effect I guess but maybe but that plays a role? Is it possible also more people sending each other on consumer apps that are off chain?

[Zilon]

This could be that more investors are holding other than selling off their coin. I would really be a surprise package to see how many people were patient enough buying and holding the dip. At this phase of the market you wouldn't expect transactions to flow in as supposed there must certainly be a decline in volume waiting for an uptrend to begin again.

[worle1bm]

Had anyone noticed how drastically decreased the number of Bitcoin transactions in last 2 months?  In last 5 years with the exception of 2018 Bitcoin had between 9 million and 10 million transactions every month. In April and May there was around 8 million and this month seems to be even below 7 million. There was no such bad month in the last 4 years. Is this a clear sigh we are already yin bear market or reasons are more fundamental and more serious for Bitcoin than just price and speculation.

Actually if you notice that prices of Bitcoin were not too much high in the past say in 2016 it was just worth $900 only and people were making transaction at that time and fees was also low.But now the case is different as the prices are still above $35k and people are preferring to hold instead of spending them in hope of getting high profits and learning from past experience that btc could hit $100k or so.This might be the case along with other factors like use of Lightning network and making off chain transaction or using single transaction to make multiple payments covering fees issue also.If we talk about this year then many memecoins or say shitcoins were in the hype under some influence due to which btc market saw a drop in trx rate as people were converting btc to other altcoins to make profits without any knowledge blindly.So these factors might have jointly cause this fall in TRX rate.But soon with btc being adopted by major population then it will rise eventually.

[ILuckyGuyI]

The number of transactions is declining because the prices in the market have also declined too much. People seem like they started waiting for better times to sell their coins.

[eaLiTy]

~
 In April and May there was around 8 million and this month seems to be even below 7 million. There was no such bad month in the last 4 years. Is this a clear sigh we are already yin bear market or reasons are more fundamental and more serious for Bitcoin than just price and speculation.

It is a sign that everyone is holding their coins most probably in exchanges and waiting for the market to move in either direction.
If you want to have a conclusive study you need to check the liquidity and volume of trade in exchanges as well along with the volume of transactions and if the volume is high in exchanges and the liquidity is low then we can assume that the bear market is approaching but the decline in number of transactions does not necessarily mean the bear is near.

[Rengga Jati]

-snip-

Yeah, as several members here said. I personally also think that this is because many people are holding BTC right now due to the crash price.
I am personally also doing this because the price of Bitcoin is still down while I got some of the BTC while above $45. So keep holding is my own way. ANd maybe there are so many people who are doing the same.

And moreover, many parties are also holding BTC because they know what will happen in the next months? You know, there is so much FUD spreading at this time, isn't normal? Or probably there are some certain purpose about it? 

[Silberman]

Had anyone noticed how drastically decreased the number of Bitcoin transactions in last 2 months?  In last 5 years with the exception of 2018 Bitcoin had between 9 million and 10 million transactions every month. In April and May there was around 8 million and this month seems to be even below 7 million. There was no such bad month in the last 4 years. Is this a clear sigh we are already yin bear market or reasons are more fundamental and more serious for Bitcoin than just price and speculation.

Can't that just be a sign that people are just holding? Not many people buying but no many selling either. In fact, rather than a bear market, we have been moving sideways lately, which has been good for sending transactions with cheap fees.

This seems to me to be the most likely explanation, a lot of those that were willing to trade their coins got completely destroyed by the correction we saw and the rest are just long term holders that are not interested in trading their coins and give them away to the whales, however we are not going to need to wait that long to know which side is right as if we see a further decrease in the price then this could mean there is a negative trend when it comes to adoption, but if the price goes up then this means that people were being conservative and simply taking care of their coins.