Bitcoin supply shortage? — The 20's strong hands.

[BlackHatCoiner]

In the image below, we can observe that from 2012 until early 2020, the balance of bitcoins in the exchanges was growing, probably because people used it for speculative purposes or for exchanging goods. I myself entered Bitcoin in March 2020 and noticed that this thing had started being taken more seriously; lots of investors considered Bitcoin as a safe haven, there was a lot of panic during the quarantine, people felt safe with Bitcoin and it didn't disappoint them. A chaotic madness was dominating.

The Bitcoin supply was shortened while the demand for bitcoins keeps increasing and I'm afraid that the market price won't move similarly to how it did in the previous halvings. In this one, a country made a legal tender. El Salvador kicked the hornet's nest and the swarm is headed towards us!

I believe that if the supply from exchanges keeps decreasing, due to people's strong hands or their “beliefs”, the $100,000 is a joke to what this future holds. The more strength these hands have, the more the demand. I created this in the Bitcoin Discussion, because I'm not speculating anything; I just want to share my view upon this and read your thoughts about this decade.

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[buwaytress]

Wondering what the situation is like for p2p exchanges though. We do know that centralised ones like Localbitcoins have been faring badly after introducing KYC requirements, there, deposits have been falling for some time now. But Bisq, Localcryptos and others, who were struggling at the start, I believe are seeing better volumes.

Traders/speculators probably aren't affected by price. The spreads are always there regardless and they're just keen on volume as that's where they make profit.

Also wondering about all those hopping off-chain... dare I say wrapped and all. Volumes there haven't slowed down as I understand. Wonder how that all fits into the Glassnode picture.

[hatshepsut93]

I think it's not as simple as "coins go to exchange = dump, coins go out = pump". As you can see from that chart, both the price and balance on exchanges were increasing for many years, it's only recently a sort of negative correlation has started, and it's still too early to judge about the significance of it. Also, we have no way to measure demand in a similar way, because fiat transactions are not public, so we can't get the full picture.

[Asuspawer09]

Interesting chart, Bitcoin shortage will be a thing soon and that will drive the market price up, We all know it a long time ago, that is why they were accumulating more bitcoin.

I mean in theory we could expect that the market price is a lot higher than before based on the bitcoin supply and the increasing demand of bitcoin, we could totally expect the price of bitcoin to explode at any moment.

But let's not forget that investing in cryptocurrency includes a big risk since aside from the volatile market, there are a lot of problems that we might not know about that could come through the way of our investment so totally everything could easily disappear.

[CryptoStar19]

...there are a lot of problems that we might not know about that could come through the way of our investment so totally everything could easily disappear.

I feel that the biggest thing in the way of bitcoin would be major unfavorable regulation in a country like the US. Even that is something that bitcoin would eventually overcome though it might be tremendously bearish in the short-term. I actually feel that there isn't anything standing in the way of bitcoin long term... that bitcoin disappearing or going away is as likely as the internet itself doing so ---> not likely at all.

[pooya87]

This chart is a bit misleading in my opinion because it contains altcoin exchanges and any bitcoin on those exchanges represents the interest in altcoin trading in that particular period. Interestingly enough if we remove those and focus only on bitcoin exchanges things don't look that dramatic. For instance if you check the Coinbase, Gemen and Kraken things don't look as bad specially for Kraken that seems to have reached an ATH and stayed the same. But then if you check altcoin exchanges such as Binance, Poloniex, Bittrex and some of the smaller insignificant exchanges you can see that the drama of this chart belongs to them alone.

[OcTradism]

I believe that if the supply from exchanges keeps decreasing, due to people's strong hands or their “beliefs”, the $100,000 is a joke to what this future holds. The more strength these hands have, the more the demand.

It won't change much because no all investors have characteristics of whales. They have similar characteristics of the crowd and almost won't change with time. Whales can be made of tiny fishes that evolve and become smarter with time. Whales can be whales at beginning such as Elon Musk.

It is easier to become crypto whales if they are billionaires or big institutes but very few of them will stay too long in the market, even they have strong hands. If they get good profits, they can leave and act as Fast come fast goes Whales.

Exchanges will be the most loyal whales, not personal or institutional whales.

[dkbit98]

Look at the bigger picture and you will see that there is a bigger outflow of Bitcoin from exchanges and whale wallet are getting larger,
there is also some manipulation with leverage trading and some have people taking profits, but I think that future for Bitcoin is looking very bright.
Things are looking even better for Bitcoin if we look at current inflation and huge rise of prices worldwide that could create one giant hyperinflation domino effect.
Most important thing is that I think that central banks and globalists are afraid of Bitcoin and decentralizations because their power is decreasing and they are slowly losing control they like so much.

HODLers keep on HODLing Bitcoin according to latest Glassnode report


https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-on-chain-week-24-2021/