Betting Experiment #2: Chasing the Draw

[madnessteat]

Seeing the thread title and the name of the topic's author, I already thought that Pmalek is testing his new strategy.

Pmalek, are you aware of any cases when someone used one of your strategies when playing for real money?

[1715144021]

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[Pmalek]

Why not use the old strategy, taking into account the fact that it has shown its profitability? It would be more interesting to test it on a larger number of bets and on other teams. At least you are not risking anything (if you play with the money you won).

It turned out to be profitable on paper, but you never know how it's going to play out in real life. You need a lot of money to buy yourself out of trouble in case of multiple losses in a row. As the experiments have shown, it's more then possible to go through a losing streak of 10 or more matches. To stay in the game, you would need $100s or $1000s per team. Several users have said that the casinos wont limit or ban you from following certain "strategies", but if it still happens while you are down a few grand, it doesn't look so good.   

Pmalek, are you aware of any cases when someone used one of your strategies when playing for real money?

No, not really. No one came forward and said they did.

[KTChampions]

Why not use the old strategy, taking into account the fact that it has shown its profitability? It would be more interesting to test it on a larger number of bets and on other teams. At least you are not risking anything (if you play with the money you won).

It turned out to be profitable on paper, but you never know how it's going to play out in real life. You need a lot of money to buy yourself out of trouble in case of multiple losses in a row. As the experiments have shown, it's more then possible to go through a losing streak of 10 or more matches. To stay in the game, you would need $100s or $1000s per team. Several users have said that the casinos wont limit or ban you from following certain "strategies", but if it still happens while you are down a few grand, it doesn't look so good.   

To begin with, it would be useful to test these strategies in real bets, at least in micro-sums. The advantage of such small bets, even if you constantly win, is that they are not interesting for bookmakers and they will not limit you. If we talk about larger amounts, then if you divide these bets between two or three bookmakers, then your overall strategy will remain elusive for them.

[icopress]

Maybe, if I can think of a new strategy to try out. I need to mention one more time that I didn't gamble with real money. I am just using math to calculate the profit or losses if I did.

My two cents .... It seems to me that one of the teams participating in the Premier League and occupying 7/11th place in the table would be suitable for the third experiment ... (judging by previous seasons). The outcome of matches with the participation of such teams in a third of the cases ends in a draw, which is great if you bet on "Draw & under 2.5" (the coefficient is almost always equal to 3.5/4 + in case of loss, x1.5).

[Pmalek]

My two cents .... It seems to me that one of the teams participating in the Premier League and occupying 7/11th place in the table would be suitable for the third experiment...

If I do another test run, I would like to try out something else than betting on draws. I have already done two experiments that incorporate betting on draws as part of the strategy. If you didn't check my first one, here is a link to it: My Football Gambling System: A Betting Experiment.

I have been thinking of finding something with asian handicaps. That system would give players a chance to win their whole bets, half of it, have their stakes returned, lose half, or lose all. It depends on the type of AH being used.

[KTChampions]

If I do another test run, I would like to try out something else than betting on draws. I have already done two experiments that incorporate betting on draws as part of the strategy. If you didn't check my first one, here is a link to it: My Football Gambling System: A Betting Experiment.

I have been thinking of finding something with asian handicaps. That system would give players a chance to win their whole bets, half of it, have their stakes returned, lose half, or lose all. It depends on the type of AH being used.

Do you have any research/speculation about the odds at these bets? I mean the bookmaker's advantage. As far as I know, the more difficult the bet, the higher the bookmaker's advantage, for example, in multi-bet the bookmaker's advantage is the higher the more events in this bet.

[Pmalek]

Do you have any research/speculation about the odds at these bets?

They can be anything. It really depends on how big of a favourite or underdog the team you are betting on is. I haven't given much thought to it.

As an example. The odds on Italy beating Austria tonight are around 1.50.
A -1 AH on Italy is 1.90. In case Italy wins by two goals difference, you win the bet. If they win with just one goal difference, your stake is returned. For all other results, you lose the bet.

A -0.5/-1 AH on Italy is also not bad. That incorporates two bets. Half of your stake is on Italy to win by a one goal margin, the other half is on them to win by two or more goals. So this bet allows you to win half or the whole bet, and you can also lose everything in case of a draw or Italy loss. Odds should be around 1.60-1.65 depending on the bookie. 

[KTChampions]

Do you have any research/speculation about the odds at these bets?

They can be anything. It really depends on how big of a favourite or underdog the team you are betting on is. I haven't given much thought to it.

As an example. The odds on Italy beating Austria tonight are around 1.50.
A -1 AH on Italy is 1.90. In case Italy wins by two goals difference, you win the bet. If they win with just one goal difference, your stake is returned. For all other results, you lose the bet.

A -0.5/-1 AH on Italy is also not bad. That incorporates two bets. Half of your stake is on Italy to win by a one goal margin, the other half is on them to win by two or more goals. So this bet allows you to win half or the whole bet, and you can also lose everything in case of a draw or Italy loss. Odds should be around 1.60-1.65 depending on the bookie. 

The first bet looks adequate and the odds are quite acceptable. As for the second bet, I did not understand how the odds here can be higher than for the event of a simple victory for Italy (1.6 > 1.5)  or is 1.6 - 1.65 odds obtained only in case of a win with a two-goal difference?

[Pmalek]

The first bet looks adequate and the odds are quite acceptable. As for the second bet, I did not understand how the odds here can be higher than for the event of a simple victory for Italy (1.6 > 1.5)  or is 1.6 - 1.65 odds obtained only in case of a win with a two-goal difference?

Yes, Italy would have to win with two or more goals difference for you to win the whole bet. A 2:0 Italy win would get you $165 on a $100 bet. If Italy wins only 1:0, your reward would only be $132.50. As you can see, you don't win as much on that AH bet as you would betting on a simple Italy win if your team only wins with a one-goal difference. You have to win both bets that make up the AH for maximum profit.

[KTChampions]

The first bet looks adequate and the odds are quite acceptable. As for the second bet, I did not understand how the odds here can be higher than for the event of a simple victory for Italy (1.6 > 1.5)  or is 1.6 - 1.65 odds obtained only in case of a win with a two-goal difference?

Yes, Italy would have to win with two or more goals difference for you to win the whole bet. A 2:0 Italy win would get you $165 on a $100 bet. If Italy wins only 1:0, your reward would only be $132.50. As you can see, you don't win as much on that AH bet as you would betting on a simple Italy win if your team only wins with a one-goal difference. You have to win both bets that make up the AH for maximum profit.

Now I understand. But this bet seems very unprofitable to me. If we want reliability, then it is easier to take a simple victory for Italy, and if we want large large odds, then it is better to take the exact score and divide the money between the bets four outcomes (1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-1). In my opinion, the profit here will be higher and the risk is comparable.

[Joca97]

This was an intresting experiment. Didnt know someone would chase the draw. But with the most of the leagues you selected most of them were in profit but once as i see it got out of hand. If you have a big bankroll this can be a good method to win money. Just need to find those teams that draw a lot