what is point of Tehnical analysis?

[ConnerDalfino]

Sideways trends have proved that technical analysis doesn't always mean anything.

About a month ago we hit 30k, and TA is constantly predicting a breakout up or down, usually up, but instead the market crabs sideways, something only a few people predicted, and most of them didn't use technical analysis to figure it out.

TA is such a pointless endeavor in a market that is so controlled and volatile by the current BTC price action, especially if it is dependent upon the behavior of whales.

What do you think about it?

[1714922322]

1714922322

[BlackHatCoiner]

Technical analysis isn't pointless, it's just the cryptocurrencies way too volatile/unpredictable. Although, there are some other analysis in the long-term that seem to actually work. One of them is the S2FX model. (Short explanation)

The stock-to-flow is a number that shows a future price based on the production rate and the days that are left until that date. For example, gold has a production rate of 3,200 metric tones per year (by 2019) and there is an estimated number of 185,000 tones of gold in the whole world. Put it in the stock-to-flow formula and you get:

185,000 / 3,200 ~= 57.

This means that in order to extract the amount of gold we already have, it'll take around 57 years of non-stop mining.

In Bitcoin that isn't true, because of the halvings. We can't mine more than the current amount of bitcoins which makes it much scarcer than gold. I remember there was mathematical model that predicted the price like this:

Bitcoin price (USD) = exp(-1.84) * SF ^ 3.36

If you enter the today's values you'd get:

exp(-1.84) * (18,739,856/328,500) ^ 3.36 = $110,421.

Sure, it won't always be true, but if you notice the image above, it approaches it.

[NeuroticFish]

TA is such a pointless endeavor in a market that is so controlled and volatile by the current BTC price action, especially if it is dependent upon the behavior of whales.

What do you think about it?

TA is far from pointless. The only problem is that TA doesn't work alone, many other things have to be also correlated with it.
That's what makes 24/7 trading so difficult, else everybody would do that, isn't it? A seasoned trader might now when TA works with very little other influence and when he should take the other things into account or just stay away for a while.

[maju69]

About a month ago we hit 30k, and TA is constantly predicting a breakout up or down, usually up, but instead the market crabs sideways, something only a few people predicted, and most of them didn't use technical analysis to figure it out.

in vain for those of you who only have capital to learn TA in an instant, which aims only to read the direction of profit. doesn't that look bullshit.

Technical analysis will be useful when people who use it understand and really understand the usefulness of each indicator. but things are different for those who do not understand, then no matter what if without learning, it will not feel useful and do not know what benefits are obtained from technical analysis.

So who useless? technical analysis or users who are limited in their capabilities?

TA is just an auxiliary method, so it can't be blamed, because it depends on the user.
do you understand?

[OcTradism]

Depends on your strategy and your style: trading or investment, you will see different meanings of Technical analysis.

If you are long term investors, TA help you to cut loss when price breaks support in order to buy back.
If you are greed traders, with leverage, TA help you to protect your capital. If you don't use cut loss based on TA, you will lose your capital and when capital goes away, you will struggle to get it back.

Protect your capital with TA is good.

[GreatArkansas]

Most successful traders are making a lot of money because of technical analysis.
And does not mean that if you do technical analysis, you will do trades every time. It's part of the analysis of when you gonna trade and when you are not gonna trade, and if you are a responsible trader, you gonna practice it.
@OcTradism is right, most of the traders got different strategies, some are owning using low time frames while some are in high time frames.
We can also consider that too during sideways.

[mk4]

TA can only be effective to a certain extent, obviously because especially in Bitcoin, narratives are what mostly move the markets. TA is simply just a play of probabilities. Like for example, a certain indicator may indicate that it's 5% more likely that the price will move to a certain direction. Traders would then capitalize with that 5% advantage, and assuming they'd do it consistently in the long term(with proper bank roll management and such), there's a good chance that they'd make money.

[OcTradism]

@OcTradism is right, most of the traders got different strategies, some are owning using low time frames while some are in high time frames.
We can also consider that too during sideways.

Thanks. Capital is first.

If I fail to protect my profit, I have to protect my capital. If I fail with that mission, my life is gone. Cut loss makes sense because if you lose 10 or 20% of your capital, you can get it back easily.

If you lose 90% of your capital, I am sorry, you can end in the hell. Lose your mind, and do stupid things. Capital loss is the first thing but it can result in other things, your family, etc.

[adaseb]

TA is far from perfect. However people still use it because its more reliable than fundamental analysis. You need to realise that if TA worked 100% of the time then there would be no market. With so many different TA signals out there, at one point in time could be a reason to long and a reason to short.

What determines the best traders is how they use this TA info. The smartest traders use the same TA as everybody else, however they go only with the trend and they may bail on a trade if it looks like its not going to work out. If it was this easy then everybody would be trading instead of working 9-5.

[wxa7115]

Sideways trends have proved that technical analysis doesn't always mean anything.

About a month ago we hit 30k, and TA is constantly predicting a breakout up or down, usually up, but instead the market crabs sideways, something only a few people predicted, and most of them didn't use technical analysis to figure it out.

TA is such a pointless endeavor in a market that is so controlled and volatile by the current BTC price action, especially if it is dependent upon the behavior of whales.

What do you think about it?

Well any decent book about TA will mention that TA is not effective in markets that have very low volume and this is because it is easy for a whale to manipulate what you are seeing and then do the opposite catching you off-guard, now is there manipulation in this market? I think the answer is a clear yes, but at the same time there is enough volume for TA to work.

TA will never tell you with 100% confidence what it is going to happen, it is only going to help you to take better decisions down the road, and if that is not enough for you then TA is probably not for you.

[semobo]

Sideways trends have proved that technical analysis doesn't always mean anything.

About a month ago we hit 30k, and TA is constantly predicting a breakout up or down, usually up, but instead the market crabs sideways, something only a few people predicted, and most of them didn't use technical analysis to figure it out.

TA is such a pointless endeavor in a market that is so controlled and volatile by the current BTC price action, especially if it is dependent upon the behavior of whales.

What do you think about it?

TA is not going to work all the time but it doesn't mean its completely useless, if you don't have belief in TA then on what basis you are going to make your short term trading decisions? Or you simply going to let your luck decides the fate of your trades?

[Wexnident]

No one really ever pointed out that TA is always correct though. Granted I don't do it, but I'm pretty sure the study behind what TA does is far from being useless. It's just that, it isn't a guaranteed solution to identifying how the market would actually move, cause if it was? Then everyone would be Technical analysts. I mean I'm pretty sure you were the only one who assumed that TA's were always right with how you actually phrased your sentence.

TA is an instrument of sorts, but it never gives an answer that would 100% be true. That'd be closer to foretelling the future than TA ngl.

[enawati]

Combination of TA,Fundamental and historycal of price will help us to predict where BTC will going next. Without TA we can not determine support and resistance. All trader and investor is always see the charting to determine trend of market before buy or sell, without charting and TA is difficult to decide when should be buy and sell. Knowledge of TA is the basic of trading activity, and we should be have knowledge about it before jumping in to trading/investing, we need knowledge of TA to invest in markets of crypto, stocks, comodities, forex etc.

[Maslate]

Sideways trends have proved that technical analysis doesn't always mean anything.

What do you think about it?

That is what you think mate and I meant to agree with that for the reason that we can't predict right the market where to go. Even we just focus on a single coin, still can't make it right or at least being close to the real scenario.
What we just doing here is to live in a speculative market, it is sometimes we ask for luck but unfortunately, it often to heard.

But even to say that TA's doesn't mean anything to you (and I'm agreeing with that), well, I'm still using this one no matter what it takes. Because I'm still believing that in some other way it helps me more than those who use nothing.

[ahoenk]

Technical analisys point is to make a decision when or where to enter the market. All indicator at technical analisys is the picture how people act on the market. For example RSI, RSI indicate that the token/ voon is over bought or over sold. 

[DarkDays]

Sideways trends have proved that technical analysis doesn't always mean anything.

About a month ago we hit 30k, and TA is constantly predicting a breakout up or down, usually up, but instead the market crabs sideways, something only a few people predicted, and most of them didn't use technical analysis to figure it out.

TA is such a pointless endeavor in a market that is so controlled and volatile by the current BTC price action, especially if it is dependent upon the behavior of whales.

What do you think about it?

I think that if this is your way of thinking you may not be understanding the real value of technical analysis. Even with markets being volatile and manipulation by large players or some domino effect there is still point in trying to understand why certain events happen, it will help with your planning and understanding of the market. We all know history tends to repeat itself so there can be valuable insight drawn from proper TA.

[ChrisPop]

The point of technical analysis for a trader is to find patterns in the price behavior that he can exploit for a profit. Now that doesn't mean a strategy will work all the time and in market. Sometimes you need to tweak, scale up, scale down, backtest more, etc.

Developing profitable strategies for trading is no easy endeavour, otherwise we would all be out there printing money like crazy. 

[blockman]

Technical analysis has its use and if you think that it's pointless, did you ever tried to do some TA or followed someone who's good at it? I've followed some folks that are using TAs with their trades and what they think about the market and so far, they've hit what they've said that the price of bitcoin will go down $30k and they did say that correctly. The point of it is to guide the person who does it. It's true that sometimes it's not really accurate at all and can't go on with the market swings that have been happening from time to time but the point of it is for you to have an idea of where it's possibly going to go. Whether be up or down.

[samcrypto]

TA works even on a bear market though I agree that the volatility is too much to predict but you still have to try because this is what trading for, we predict the market as much as possible in order for us to know when to buy and sell. If you did not use any TA on your trading, then expect to lose more money. Bear market is inevitable, we should prepare at all time and you can lessen the risk by using TA.

[sheenshane]

This is just a tool in trading that uses a different mathematical formula to predict the market, it's more about a technical method of predicting the price and the strategy that believes in the past history that will repeat itself.  Reading chart patterns to determine when the resistance and support could probably happen.  This kind of strategy will most likely very easy for them to spot trends and it could be useful too if you include a fundamental strategy.

But remember that you can't rely on this and there's no accurate price prediction using this strategy.  It will remain the price of crypto will remain unpredictable.