Bitcoin security in the long term

[clint25n]

everyone who is involved in the business world of course they want an absolute profit and every business does not always make a profit, but this business is more inclined to its prices that go up and down in an indefinite period of time as happens in times like today. this, but this business is more to the market, prices that sometimes go up sometimes also go down

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[nortwood]

Coming from a John Perkins "Confessions of An Economic Hitman" point of view would it be outlandish to consider the CBDC to be the elephant in the room?   

It seems to be the antithesis of bitcoin and the most imminent threat moving forward. "Programmable money with identity embedded in it" as someone recently described it. With the allure of not only becoming the reserve currency but also having the ability to socially engineer down to the individual. Why would they let you buy bitcoin, or for that matter accept it in trade without going through fiat first? They gave El Salvador the middle finger. I'm not talking 120 years from now. Mainstream fud about the dollar no longer being the reserve currency within the next 20 years. What happens when the spending power of fiat continues to decline and CBDCs disallow direct trade? As people flee fiat they'll have to make a decision. I have always believed that if given the chance people would choose self sovereignty over centralization. But watching this play out I have to question that. The majority of users don't possess their own keys, less than 10k run nodes, even less coinjoin when it should be the norm right from mining forward.         

Let me use some quotes from another thread from earlier this year to help me get to my point:

philipma1957

right now the market cap for btc is around 730 billion.  There is enough wealth to push it to 1.8 trillion or 100k a coin. the top ten stocks are worth more then 9 trillion so  pulling 1 trillion away from them could happen this year.

I do not see enough wealth to push it to 18 trillion or 1 million a coin any time soon.

mickeywith

When rewards are 3.125BTC mining would still be somehow okay to many miners, even if the price was below 100-200k, but when the rewards are at 1.5625 BTC price needs to be beyond those levels for mining to stay as decentralized, if not, then only those with free power will be able to mine at a profit.

With the being said, there might come times when bitcoin holders will need to mine for no profit just to keep the blockchain running the way it is, sort of like how many people run full nodes now without any financial benefits, but I guess it's too early to judge since we don't know how will the mining fees become like since they will be more important than the block reward soon.

The issue regarding the financial viability of running miners seems like it has the potential to become a security threat sooner than later. Nations are building out infrastructure. If the central bank gives them an ultimatum down the line because they view bitcoin as a genuine threat to the hegemony that seems problematic from a security standpoint. Introduce the CBDC with tons of carrots, and disallow all crypto related transactions. Could the network sustain that in a scenario with fiat continuing to lose buying power and hodlers have to run machines at a loss to keep the system honest? It seems like it would continue to centralize which would either lead to an attack from within to game the system, or they send in the jackals to utilize the infrastructure built out on CBDC friendly Nations if the threat persists.

I know it's a shorter time span but it seems on topic, and the question of which actors with what incentives could pull off an attack keeps coming up. I realize this is way more fud than should come from a first post. I'm actually quite bullish. I think many of the issues we face can be addressed. I'm here to attempt to better understand how.   
 
*edited to add names to quotes

[perfect999]

When Bitcoin gets to a stage where the mined supply is basically 21m (that is, very little remaining btc left to be mined), will Bitcoin still remain a secure network?  

If you keep looking at all these things, then you’re sure going to drop out before that time comes, because you will discouraged. There are always a disadvantage to things, and there are also the advantages.

Moreover what you’re talking about now is something that is going to happen in many years to come, I believe before that time comes we are going to see a way to get around this, there’s going to be a solution for sure. And also when that time comes, the system will change and miners are going to be benefiting through transaction fees. There will likely be lots of people using cryptocurrency for transactions by then.

[ropyu1978]

I think bitcoin remains on a secure network, bitcoin cannot be counterfeited, as with smart contract addresses, there is always a unique thing that distinguishes which one is genuine which is fake, and also as to penetrate the security of the blockchain it is very difficult, I have only ever heard of attacks on wallets, not on blockchain networks.

true as you said, bitcoin remains on a secure network, because bitcoin is clearly the safest crypto, bitcoin prices in the future may rise again, we can make bitcoin an asset for the future, never be afraid to invest in bitcoin..

[CryptoStar19]

The design of the bitcoin network is such that every single the network expands, and the networking effect expands, the security overall is increased.

[worle1bm]

When Bitcoin gets to a stage where the mined supply is basically 21m (that is, very little remaining btc left to be mined), will Bitcoin still remain a secure network?  

Depending upon the price predictions the network will still be secured by the miners as they will earn huge transaction fees at that time also.The btc will become mainstream and there will lot of transactions in bitcoin network which will eventually results in more profits in the form of transaction fees at that time.The miners will not have to mine blocks using ASIC machines and will not earn block rewards but you can say transaction fees will be enough at that time to satisfy them and btc will be secured network.

[Caldear]

Bitcoin has existed for many years and has withstood the test of time and market. It has accumulated a large amount of computing power in the early stage of its development, and the Bitcoin network has gradually improved and is not vulnerable to attacks. With the development of Bitcoin, people will also be willing to pay higher fees to encourage miners to ensure network security.

[marilynmanson21]

there is a possibility that the network will become more insecure if there is less BTC to be mined, and it is possible that miners will stop mining if their land is no longer suitable. because every human must seek profit in all endeavors,

[Obito]

there is a possibility that the network will become more insecure if there is less BTC to be mined, and it is possible that miners will stop mining if their land is no longer suitable. because every human must seek profit in all endeavors,

What are you talking about? Just because there's less bitcoin to be mined doesn't mean that the security of it wavers, it will still be the same as any other time in terms of security, the only effect of having less mined coins is that the supply isn't easily refreshed by fresh coins which may or may not make the prices go up.

[randegibran]

Of course, everyone who will do busines.sis always looking for profits.and will not want to suffer.losses, such as the current crypto world which will make our investments.long-term and the prices.issued.are also very transparent.and also make it.easier for.beginners to understand how this business.work for the present or the future

[onecall123]

there is a possibility that the network will become more insecure if there is less BTC to be mined, and it is possible that miners will stop mining if their land is no longer suitable. because every human must seek profit in all endeavors,

What are you talking about? Just because there's less bitcoin to be mined doesn't mean that the security of it wavers, it will still be the same as any other time in terms of security, the only effect of having less mined coins is that the supply isn't easily refreshed by fresh coins which may or may not make the prices go up.

Same here. There are still a lot of scenarios that could happen, so hang in there. Mine while the supply is still available and don't rush into decisions. When it comes to Bitcoin, there is nothing to lose. Since 2017, I've been making crypto every day. It doesn't matter if it drops more tomorrow, so you should be fine.

[cotton ball]

We can't predict the security of bitcoin in the long term, because most countries have now banned bitcoin mining, maybe the price of bitcoin in the future will continue to rise, and it is certain that many hold bitcoin, but the security of bitcoin in the future will improve,

[DarkDays]

Important subject; I had never thought of this. Watching.

When Bitcoin gets to a stage where the mined supply is basically 21m (that is, very little remaining btc left to be mined), will Bitcoin still remain a secure network?

I guess you mean that miners' incentive will become less and less overtime. Yeah, that might be true. If we assume that it will be globally adopted in the future and that its price will be less fluctuating, then each halving will simply make miners' profit halved, which means less computational power offered into the network and hence, less security.

The drop in incentive to secure the network with increase in mining to the point where most of the 21M supply of BTC is a real challenge.

Right now, miners mine because they are incentivised to do so by receiving rewards with every mined block but as that community becomes smaller and smaller, people would probably take a different angle to security because then there's no point in holding a very scarce assets like BTC if it's not valuable due to next to no security. Which groups will take that approach if security doesn't become obsolete in the next 100+ years is something I can't even start guessing as most people today will not be around then, and technology can take us much further in a century.

Interesting debate, nonetheless...

[SquirrelJulietGarden]

The drop in incentive to secure the network with increase in mining to the point where most of the 21M supply of BTC is a real challenge.

Right now, miners mine because they are incentivised to do so by receiving rewards with every mined block but as that community becomes smaller and smaller, people would probably take a different angle to security because then there's no point in holding a very scarce assets like BTC if it's not valuable due to next to no security. Which groups will take that approach if security doesn't become obsolete in the next 100+ years is something I can't even start guessing as most people today will not be around then, and technology can take us much further in a century.

It is a far future and we can not know what will happen in the world and with bitcoin network & price in next 120 years.

Bitcoin miners receive income from block rewards and confirmation rewards (as transaction fees). If in next 120 years, the price of Bitcoin is a few millions of dollar and miners receive very big income from transaction fees by confirm transactions, I think they will keep mining.

They care about income, to pay power bills and to get beneficiaries. From where the income comes from, block rewards or transaction fees, it is not a big matter for bitcoin miners.

If they see unprofitable from mining, they will shut down their ASIC and Hash power will drop. The network might become less healthy, less secured.

This question will become clearer in next 40 years when the supply chart becomes flatter, and regulations from governments are in place.

[bL4nkcode]

there is a possibility that the network will become more insecure if there is less BTC to be mined, and it is possible that miners will stop mining if their land is no longer suitable. because every human must seek profit in all endeavors,

You mean the network will be insecure if there are less miners? Well, I don't think it will happen very soon, the increasing numbers of hashrate means that bitcoin mining is profitable that more miners join the guessing game. Hashrate falls this month but it still much higher than the last few years.

Like what happened to china, they banned crypto mining, but simply people just ship the miners to other part of the world to continue the operation, what I mean, banning crypto on some area, or no longer suitable on that land or having a hard time on some part of the world due to electricity cost or etc. wont stop someone to continue their work if it gives them enough and probably more profit.

[oHnK]

there is a possibility that the network will become more insecure if there is less BTC to be mined, and it is possible that miners will stop mining if their land is no longer suitable. because every human must seek profit in all endeavors,

You mean the network will be insecure if there are less miners? Well, I don't think it will happen very soon, the increasing numbers of hashrate means that bitcoin mining is profitable that more miners join the guessing game. Hashrate falls this month but it still much higher than the last few years.

I wonder why the indicator is a slightly better number of miners for security on the network.  Actually, there is no single technology that is safe from crime, even an electric current that can be deadly can be stolen by many people and that is a common thing.  If you demand perfection, nothing is perfect in this life.  Security can be achieved if we ourselves are able to keep our activities free from mistakes using technology.

[ik5656]

Bitcoin is The Futher of Global Money.Many people already Except BTC. Maney Country  Banned Bitcoin becuse They Don't Know BTC Algorithm.I hope Futher World Lead Bitcoin.The Bitcoin Mining Power is the most popular now a days. So People Easily Investment in Bitoicoin Economic financial Decentralization System.

[ninkdwi]

safe? of course not from all sides there is no safe word here.
First, I think the security of the wallet must be monitored because there have been many cases claiming that the wallet has been hacked etc. so we need to double up on security because I'm sure the bad guys must have bad intentions if they find out.
the second in terms of price is quite good but remember that here it is fluctuating so it's hard to predict and for someone to hold slowly, of course there will be no problem because in the future many think that bitcoin will be bright but for those who hold it for a while I don't think it's suitable to say it's safe to invest here because of these fluctuations.

[drwoo]

When you talk about the fees for off-chain transactions, are you thinking about exchanges dividing their profits with miners? Or what other off-chain transactions are there that generate a fee?

LN as of now still settles transactions on-chain so that'll be opening or closing a channel. If there is a still some degree of scarcity with on-chain transactions, then these kinds of settlement transactions will be more expensive but users won't have to pay a great deal of money when you spread it over to the many transactions that the user could've made while on LN.

For now we still have enough time to figure out a way to make Bitcoin work even when there are no coinbase transactions anymore. But that is still some time to go.

Coinbase transactions will always exist. They're the only required transaction in a Bitcoin block.

You are of course right about coinbase transactions will forever exist. I meant that one day coinbase transactions will just not have a block reward anymore, my fault.

But what I still can't get my head around is if we don't have a block reward anymore, or let's say a block reward very close to zero, do you think fees will still be sufficient to keep the network running / the miners mining while at the same time be feasible enough to allow for micro transactions at scale?

[taufik0911]

if 21 million bitcoins have been mined there will be no effect on the security of blockchains but what is clear is that the nodes continue to grow and most likely transaction fees will increase because miners only get rewarded from the total transaction fee for 1 block
maybe you can learn more details first