Bitcoin's transaction volume in 2029

[brainactive]

Satoshi expects bitcoin to have a binary outcome and quoted "I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume."

We are currently 8 years away from the 20 year mark.

What do you think will happen by 2029?

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[clippers]

I believe that Satoshi Nakamoto originally meant that Bitcoin will either be widely recognized within 20 years or no one cares about it. It's not that Bitcoin's transaction volume will reach what order of magnitude. I think that Bitcoin in 2029 may exist more as a value calibration, just like the digital gold that people often say. By then, Bitcoin's transaction volume may not be very large, but its influence has penetrated into all aspects of people's lives.

[joniboini]

Why are you asking for something so far away? Just enjoy and see where we're going.

Things can change. Government can declare a ban, backtrack it, over and over again. So I see no point in worrying about that prediction. Just take a look at China's mining drama. You can just treat satoshi's post as some random guess too, where the numbers don't really matter.

[Kemarit]

You don't need to look far beyond, you just have to observed how large the volume is today in 2021 and say that obviously, the transaction will increase in time. And by that time, "almost all bitcoin" are going to be mined, so the supply and dwindling, but the demand will still be there that can push the price and obviously the transaction volumes.

[Darker45]

We are already more than halfway there and it seems very obvious that the rate of adoption is still rising, very far from its zenith. So I guess it is safe to assume that Satoshi is probably going to be right on the side of Bitcoin having a very large transaction volume rather than on having zero volume. However, the direction is also towards the increase of off-chain Bitcoin transaction volume due to the demand of Bitcoin properly functioning as sound money. These are very exciting times for Bitcoin.

[BIN-BIN]

When Satoshi said in the next 20 years bitcoin will have a large volume of transactions or not having a volume at all, what he means is in two ways 1 it means the level of adoption of bitcoin in the larger society and second, Satoshi statement shows how decentralized and unpredictable bitcoin is even to Satoshi himself that is why he could not make a stands statement on what bitcoin will be in the next 20 years.

In the year 2029, bitcoin could have a 21 million transaction volume or have zero volume.

[Zilon]

By "Large transactions volume " he meant global acceptance with multiple useage and I guess we are gradually getting there because so many nation's are gradually embracing the digital currency making it even more volatile than it was 8years ago and by his prediction in 20 years time which I feel it's even too far certainly bitcoin will get total dorminated and wider useage.

[yhiaali3]

Of course I expect the volume to be very large due to the increased demand for Bitcoin and the increase in transactions on the network tremendously. I think that what Satoshi predicted of a very large increase in volume after 20 years happened only 10 years later, the global adoption of Bitcoin has increased at a tremendous speed, especially In the past two years, although the increase in the block size of Bitcoin causes an annoying problem for everyone because it leads to delays in transactions, but on the other hand, this is good news because it means the expansion of the spread of Bitcoin.

[RokokGudangGaram]

I am one of those hoping and manifesting that by 2029, a large volume of transactions would be witnessed by all of us here. Cryptocurrency in general is slowly but gradually getting certain amount of acceptance in the global society. Although not all, but most are much aware now and more people has started indulging themselves with it today.

[skarais]

Hopefully someone holding a crystal ball will answer your question OP. While at this time we do not have the special ability to see the future of bitcoin whether it is still trading above $10K, $20K, $30K or $100K. One thing for sure is that as long as there is interest in bitcoin, we will still see it as something of value. I feel this thread fits better on a speculation board.

[franky1]

in 2000 internet was 0.005mb/s and 4gb hard drive was the norm
in 2005 internet was 0.5mb/s and 60gb hard drive was the norm
in 2009 internet was 1.5mb/s and 120gb hard drive was the norm

decisions were made that transactions of ~226byte had to fit into a 1mb based on the norm
this was ~4k transactions .. or the promoted "upto 7transactions a second"(4k)

but things have moved on
in 2015 1tb hard drives were available 25mb/s internet
in 2020 4tb hard drives were available 50mb/s internet

so internet speeds increased by 33x since 2009
hard drives have increased by 33x since 2009

yet blocks transaction capacity has not even surpassed the average of 4k a block of 2009
let alone being utilised to an hardware acceptable 33x growth(82k-132k(actual vs possible repsectively))

technology has moved on in 12 years, but capacity has stifled at ~2.5k for 4 years

[The Cryptovator]

As a human, it's not possible to forecast about future which is 8 years away from us. But if Bitcoin exists until 2029 the no doubt the transaction volume will be higher than today. It's the same like you mentioned in the thread, I don't know your quote source, either "no volume or high transaction volume". But I believe we have overcomes no volume zone. At least in 2029 wouldn't happen with no volume IMO. But at the end of the day, it's a cryptocurrency and anything would happen at any time. So any judgments wouldn't consider accurate today.

[Hydrogen]

Its hard to say what bitcoin's true transactional volume is. There are no official statistics released for off chain transactions.

Crypto ETFs, banks and other financial institutions can buy/sell bitcoin significant volumes of BTC off blockchain without it showing up in the public ledger.

All we have are estimates of transaction volume, unless official numbers are disclosed in the future.

I wonder if it is possible to make a FOIA (freedom of information act) request to US banks to incentivize them disclosing that type of data.

[boyptc]

If we're just the same by that time with the situation right now, then it's no longer a question because we know what's happening.

It's still a long way to go and there will be some bans that will disrupt the market and as well as adoptions being declared by some countries too. We'll never know.

[hatshepsut93]

It's safe to say that Bitcoin is already here to stay, unless something very unforeseen happens, but chances for that are extremely tiny. However, if we ignore Lightning Network, transaction volume is probably be no different from what we have now, because it's unlikely we'll have a blocksize increase in this decade. And Lightning Network would actually make it very hard to count volume, because you can't monitor its transactions, so we'd have only some estimates.

[jostorres]

Satoshi expects bitcoin to have a binary outcome and quoted "I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume."

We are currently 8 years away from the 20 year mark.

What do you think will happen by 2029?

He wasn’t sure as to what would be the outcome, so he knew between the two things one was bound to happen , it might be the increase in future or that no one cares. But right now we already know that it is the increase in transactions, because we are already seeing that now.So in future it is going to get bigger, although I am still wondering what it would be like when all the bitcoins are mined.

We have seen how the whales (both individuals and institutions) are buying up billions of dollars worth of bitcoins and storing them away. And some of have always feared that in future that there might not be any coins left, although I don’t really believe that, because I feel the price will always increase to fit in with demand and moreover none of these people will hold it forever. If price and transactions fees should get high in future, it might affect it.

[CryptoStar19]

Well over the time-line of a decade or so, the absolute certain thing is that crypto is here to stay: bitcoin is either continue continue the current narrative and become the prominent digital store of value or become replaced by another... the latter, if at all, won't be happening anytime soon however.

[ranochigo]

It isn't hard to see why he said that.

Initial iterations of Bitcoin were not meant to scale, even though the limit for block size was 32MB at the very start. Probably would've been bottlenecked by the bandwidth of the nodes at that time, and wouldn't be able to scale too. It was refined to a more reasonable 1MB thereafter.

Satoshi's prediction lies on the premise that better solution to scale will eventually be implemented and the computer hardware continually gets better. Bitcoin would then be a more viable currency and offers intrinsic values that the payment systems doesn't offer at that time. People would be more compelled to use Bitcoin rather than the other payment processors. That, or a superior replacement comes about or a catastrophic event destroys Bitcoin.

[davis196]

Satoshi expects bitcoin to have a binary outcome and quoted "I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume."

We are currently 8 years away from the 20 year mark.

What do you think will happen by 2029?

At this point,we are just speculating about what will happen to Bitcoin in "insert random year of the future"?
Satoshi was wrong about this.Thinking that it's going to be either one outcome or the other and nothing in between.I think that the Bitcoin transaction volume in 2029 is going to be a little bit higher than 2021,but nothing drastic.
We don't know what does Satoshi meant by "very large transaction volume"?Is the current transaction volume of Bitcoin very large or is it medium?