Options traders aim for $100K Bitcoin by the end of 2021, is there a chance?

[dubst4r]

How realistic is it that a majority of Bitcoin investors are aiming for a $100,000 BTC price by the end of 2021?

Bitcoin (BTC) investors are known for being bullish, and even during 50% corrections like the current one, most analysts remain optimistic. One reason for investors' endless optimism and belief in infinite upside could be BTC's decreasing issuance and the 21 million coins fixed supply limit.

However, not even the most accurate models, including the stock-to-flow (S2F) from analyst Plan B, can predict bear markets, crashes, or FOMO-induced (fear of missing out) pumps. Traders usually misinterpret these concepts as value and price expectations can be easily mistaken.

Bitcoin does not exist in a vacuum, even if BTC maximalists think so. Therefore, its price action heavily depends on how many dollars, euros, and yuans are in circulation and interest rates, real estate, equities, and commodities. Even global economic growth and inflationary expectations impact the risk appetite for people, companies, and mutual funds.

More @ https://cointelegraph.com/news/options-traders-aim-for-100k-bitcoin-by-the-end-of-2021-is-there-a-chance

[Poker Player]

You'd better comment on the article you link to, OP.

All the predictions I have read this year gave a minimum of $100K as the price of Bitcoin this year. I don't know if in the last couple of months any will have changed but most likely not. I guess if we get to November at these prices or the current price drops below $20K some predictions will start to be rethought. For my part I remain bullish in the medium and long term.

[Ararbermas]

$10K is more realistic.  

are you sure? seems you frustrated waiting for good improvement. Lol  wherein that's why its too easy for you to make a prediction. I agree that 100k is too much and too far to reach by the end of 2021. but perhaps it's impossible as well to plunges on that value which is 10k as it keeps holding the current support level for how many weeks or it's been months i guess. And did you know how many attempts bitcoin trying to break the support? Probably not.. If i were you try to check the graph mate and make speculate it.

[Oceat]

One thing I'm certain is that there will be a $100k price of Bitcoin but it's not going to happen this year. So expect it already that we will see the price in the next halving since every halving there's a bull run. I've already throw the possibility of expecting a price like that within this year. It's been two months already since the last time Bitcoin touch the ATH price and what we see at the market is a continuous fud.

Well, lucky for us the price stayed at $30k+ which is higher enough than the last ATH price on 2017. You guys better stack some Bitcoin if 2024 is approaching but that's kinda too far away from the reality yet. Who knows? Apple might switch to Bitcoin someday just like what the PayPal did.

[Saidasun]

You'd better comment on the article you link to, OP.

All the predictions I have read this year gave a minimum of $100K as the price of Bitcoin this year. I don't know if in the last couple of months any will have changed but most likely not. I guess if we get to November at these prices or the current price drops below $20K some predictions will start to be rethought. For my part I remain bullish in the medium and long term.

All have the good news about El Salvador adopting Bitcoin as legal tender have not had the major impact that people thought it would and Bitcoin has gone down in price since. People making these bold predictions were probably a part of that demographic that thought this would steer us into a more bullish market and making it seem like 100k was not too unrealistic.

They have probably changed their minds now they have seen the opposite reaction to that news.

[yhiaali3]

Due to the price growth of the history of Bitcoin, most people see that the opportunity may be repeated based on the historical similarity, the price during the history of Bitcoin has grown several times and achieved more than ATH soaring during its history, in addition, most analysts expect Bitcoin to reach 100k and some expect much more So most people tend to Hold their bitcoins until a new ATH is achieved maybe the end of this year.
In fact, this is quite logical because all those who sold bitcoin in the past regretted that they gave up bitcoin at such cheap prices. Whenever bitcoin hits a new high, people wish they had bought bitcoin at the previous high. I think that's what will happen this time too. Those who sell now will regret it in the future.

[eaLiTy]

How realistic is it that a majority of Bitcoin investors are aiming for a $100,000 BTC price by the end of 2021?

It is a possibility that we would see a huge rally by the end of this year, we can only speculate how long it would be but i am expecting the price to reach around $75k by the end of this year before a major correction.

Bitcoin (BTC) investors are known for being bullish, and even during 50% corrections like the current one, most analysts remain optimistic. One reason for investors' endless optimism and belief in infinite upside could be BTC's decreasing issuance and the 21 million coins fixed supply limit.

The limited supply of BTCitcoin is the real factor but there is a views coming up from certain institutional investors and haters that BTCitcoin might be limited but they forked many coins which does not mean it is only 21 million. I am expecting that narrative will be used for a while.

However, not even the most accurate models, including the stock-to-flow (S2F) from analyst Plan B, can predict bear markets, crashes, or FOMO-induced (fear of missing out) pumps. Traders usually misinterpret these concepts as value and price expectations can be easily mistaken.

You cannot predict accurately any market situation, the stock market can be predicted depending on the growth of the company but in cryptocurrency no charts will explain anything and there is not much data even to calculate anything remotely accurate, the only aspect is that the number of coins are limited and the halving will help in reducing the number of coins earned per block and it will have an impact on the valuation and that is the only accurate prediction we can make.

[proudhon]

There is zero chance bitcoin can maintain a price above $35k, therefore there is a negative chance it can reach $100k in 2021...or ever. Fact.

[Kemarit]

Well if we are going to based in on S2F model, it points to Bitcoin reaching 6 digits and going for more. So all hopes are still there for the price to at least reach $100,000 this year. The last all time high we had is $64,000, so it's very close.

If institutions keeps investing just like the way they did leading to that all time high, then there is a good probability that we might hit it. We still have like 6 months to go, if we didn't touch it this year, then by early 2022. So the market is still open wide and hopefully we can all achieved it.

[Fundamentals Of]

Is there a chance? Of course there is. I also share the investors' optimism of Bitcoin. If I were asked of what I think about the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 within the year, I would also say it is more probable that it will happen rather than not. But you have to understand that Bitcoin hodlers are expected to be bullish. They have got a stake in it. They have Bitcoin. What do you expect from them? Just like me, I not only see the possibility of Bitcoin hitting $100,000 within the year, I also hope for it.

[Reatim]

How realistic is it that a majority of Bitcoin investors are aiming for a $100,000 BTC price by the end of 2021?

Don't be stupid to believe that because if majority of Bitcoin investors are aiming for that 100,000$ value then market should not drops like what is happening today.
Look at the market it falls more than half from the ATH meaning half of the investors had already withdrawn their fund so how is that?

Bitcoin (BTC) investors are known for being bullish, and even during 50% corrections like the current one, most analysts remain optimistic. One reason for investors' endless optimism and belief in infinite upside could be BTC's decreasing issuance and the 21 million coins fixed supply limit.

Just remember that not all who invest in bitcoin are trusting this coin because majority of those are just players in which they are only betting to earn then withdraw and only small part are those really here to buy and hold.

[livingfree]

It has become a realistic price because we've moved up to $64k.

But if bitcoin just didn't moved to that price then for sure that majority won't believe to see that price and we're only going to aim for the coming back of its 2017's all time high price.

And that's only $20k.

[ILuckyGuyI]

Is there a chance? Yes, there is. Seeing Bitcoing getting stuck between $30k and $35k shouldn't make anyone be certain that Bitcoin won't reach a new ATH. On the contrary, I think that there's not really too much time left for us to leave the bear market behind. After that, we'll have another big rally and Bitcoin will increase gradually day by day. Before the winter, I expect to see a new ATH. And after that, I believe that it will break a really huge record before the end of this year

[pooya87]

One reason for investors' endless optimism and belief in infinite upside could be BTC's decreasing issuance and the 21 million coins fixed supply limit.

That is wrong.
The reason for increasing price is not the fixed supply but the increasing demand. If anyone doubts this they can visit the altcoin market and see the long term price of altcoins with capped supplies that keeps declining due to lack of demand.

However, not even the most accurate models, including the stock-to-flow (S2F) from analyst Plan B, can predict bear markets, crashes, or FOMO-induced (fear of missing out) pumps. Traders usually misinterpret these concepts as value and price expectations can be easily mistaken.

You are not supposed to be able to predict anything with absolute accuracy. Wizards and witches can do it and they only exist in fairy tails. What we can do is to speculate and when it comes to bitcoin we can speculate its price in long term which means all the short term crashes and FOMOs become irrelevant.

Bitcoin does not exist in a vacuum, even if BTC maximalists think so. Therefore, its price action heavily depends on how many dollars, euros, and yuans are in circulation and interest rates, real estate, equities, and commodities. Even global economic growth and inflationary expectations impact the risk appetite for people, companies, and mutual funds.

Bitcoin is only affected by these things but it has never depended on any of these. As I said above the only determining factor that affects bitcoin price when you look at the bigger picture is its adoption. Otherwise the short term risk takers with a big appetite who come in to make quick profit due to some other market's crashing and fiat inflation are increasing the short term volatility.

Is there a chance?
Let's just say that we either see the end of the 4 year long cycles and there won't be any big bear markets or the target is still $400k.

[rhodelmabanal]

I think there is still a chance but a very small chance. I think we are going down below 30k$ in the next few days because bitcoin price is now at 30k$ if we are going to rise next months there is maybe a chance that we will reach 100k$ but if the price will drop down to 20k$ I think there will be no chance for 100k$ this year.

[STT]

No!  A straight answer for you, right to the point.    The full answer will be more complicated and involves a range of possibilities and probabilities and at least one scenario is yes its possible but imo not probable at this point.  Dollar has no fixed value so of course its possible but even if the herd bolts they dont have to move all in the direction BTC right away, I just doubt that simple scenario unfolds.
   Main reason we dont get the higher pricing near term or this year is Dollar has been too strong so far, I dont fear it being much stronger but it can certainly be sticky and reluctant to lose these levels which are at least in the region of last summer when BTC price was much lower.    That just means you already got alot of the gains for BTC and even in 20k, the correct attitude right now is gratitude and patience not any anxiety about fantasy targets on calendar terms.

[GreatArkansas]

Of course, they will say it and publicize it, it's like "buy the rumor, sell the news".
I am not saying that Bitcoin is not possible to reach $100,000 by the end of the year 2021, but sometimes being realistic is one of the best to do to not lose money.
Anyone can say random numbers. We already saw a huge price increase in Bitcoin since last year so, $100,000 is still possible this year.

[adaseb]

The way options work is that it doesn't mean it has to be over $100K before the end of the year. The reason why the higher strikes sometimes have more interest is because they are cheaper to buy than say a $50K option. And even if BTC doesn't go over $100K but it has a fast rally into say, $70K and heads down, then the premium will increase alot due to the higher delta. And the trader can sell the option before it expires and make a profit.

Remember when we traded at $40-50K, Deribit offered $400K options and there was tons of volume on those. And does that mean bitcoin would need to stay over $400K before expiry? No. Most of the option holders just bought it because it was very cheap and if bitcoin kept having those double digit days, it would of make alot of profit with little investment and doesn't have to hit $400K.

[worle1bm]

The btc market is predictable to some extent but not exactly so we can say $100k level will be achieved for sure but seeing the current market as it is trading between $29k down from $31k and we have already crossed 6 months period for 2021 so $100k this year seems difficult if no further support is provided at this level also.Both retail and institutional support is needed with any positively feedbacks from agencies to rise to that levels.So we can wait and hold our coins till that time frame and for sure it will be $100k at some point.

[buwaytress]

I know it doesn't look good right now with crucial support broken but I think the long term predictions made early in the year have not become invalidated. Six digit valuation is still possible, and we all have been through the motions on past rodeos to know we can still be on track.

Not holding my breath though. Prefer to be surprised than disappointed...