2021-07-10 Medium - How Much Will One Bitcoin Be Worth In 20 Years?

[acquafredda]

I’m starting off this article strong with such a title. This is the question that everyone in the general public has been asking for a long time now. But it’s also a question that no one can answer accurately.
If you knew what the price of Bitcoin would be in 20 years, it would be easy for you to buy or sell all your Bitcoin now to take advantage of it.
As you well know, life doesn’t work that way. That’s what makes it so exciting and thrilling to live. We never know what tomorrow will bring. When Satoshi Nakamoto created Bitcoin, he had no guarantee that his invention would succeed.
Instead, he built Bitcoin in such a way that it provides essential guarantees to its users.

https://www.inbitcoinwetrust.net/how-much-will-one-bitcoin-be-worth-in-20-years-ca577216edcf

Since I became a bitcoiner I liked to speculate around the price simply because it is inevitable not to give any value to something that many consider a remarkable achievement and invention in the history of mankind.
The author quoted some ideas of Hal Finney who truly got the big picture about BTC since day one.
The article is a pure speculation but a rather interesting one.

[stomachgrowls]

The article is a pure speculation but a rather interesting one.

But that qouted words above is indeed true when talking about speculation and talking about future events that would happen in Bitcoin.Come to think of that even predicting on tomorrows weather

wont be 100% accurate and how much more if we do talk about 20 years in the future? We might see Bitcoin is on the main talk of the town now and we can presume that it would really be

a good investment or payment system on the future based up on the current things that we are seeing but its not really giving out guarantees that it would be still having that worth or
would simply be replaced by something new.

[NeuroticFish]

The article is a pure speculation

Interesting or not, it's speculation and rather worthless. A lot of things can happen in 20 more years.
I mean that we have speculations for next month, end of year and so on and the chance they're accurate are slim. What does a longer term speculation bring? Nothing, really. Sorry.

As long as there's some demand for Bitcoin, the scarcity caused by the limited supply will keep pushing the price up. All the rest is speculation.

[hv_]

What will it be used for ?

[Vishnu.Reang]

IMO, Bitcoin will be able to achieve it's peak valuation in another 10 years or so (~2030). I don't want to predict the scenario for very distant future, because similar to other technological innovations, Bitcoin also has a limited shelf-life. In fact it is surprising that despite so much of competition from technologically superior altcoins such as Cardano, Polkadot and Chainlink, none of them have even come close to topple Bitcoin from the top position. Anyway, I am skeptical about Bitcoin surviving for the very distant future. The current format for private keys are not going to hold for more than 10-15 years from now. Either Bitcoin will be replaced, or it will undergo hard-forks to remove the vulnerabilities.

[Slow death]

I'm shocked at how people in the crypt world manage to exaggerate their optimism, this passage of the article almost made me fall out of bed:

For Hal Finney, with the total success of Bitcoin, the price of a Bitcoin could reach $10 million.

This is a big exaggeration and I hope that no one is buying bitcoin with the hope that in 20 years' time they will be a millionaire. we have to look at our own age, our life expectancy when we do hodl, it doesn't make much sense for someone to just do hodl for 20 years, bitcoin is to be used to buy things

[cr1776]

I'm shocked at how people in the crypt world manage to exaggerate their optimism, this passage of the article almost made me fall out of bed:

For Hal Finney, with the total success of Bitcoin, the price of a Bitcoin could reach $10 million.

This is a big exaggeration and I hope that no one is buying bitcoin with the hope that in 20 years' time they will be a millionaire. we have to look at our own age, our life expectancy when we do hodl, it doesn't make much sense for someone to just do hodl for 20 years, bitcoin is to be used to buy things

What specifically was wrong with Hal's analysis?  What he said and the math follows easily.  He didn't say it would do that, just that it was one possibility with a tremendous risk/reward ratio.  Recall that at the time it sounded a lot like today with people saying it is a scam, ponzi, worthless, that it will never reach $1 etc:

“It’s interesting that the system can be configured to only allow a certain maximum number of coins ever to be generated. I guess the idea is that the amount of work needed to generate a new coin will become more difficult as time goes on.
One immediate problem with any new currency is how to value it. Even ignoring the practical problem that virtually no one will accept it at first, there is still a difficulty in coming up with a reasonable argument in favor of a particular non-zero value for the coins.
As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world. Then the total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million.
So the possibility of generating coins today with a few cents of compute time may be quite a good bet, with a payoff of something like 100 million to 1! Even if the odds of Bitcoin succeeding to this degree are slim, are they really 100 million to one against? Something to think about…”

Most people who understood it at the time were saying that it was something of a binary proposition, either it will be worth very little, or a whole lot.

[sanjusajan]

It is great thinking about the bitcoin price and as we know there are many more cryptocurrencies and now btc is the top coin but in the feature, there will be the other  crypto in place of it because in crypto there is no any guessing it depends upon feature of the coin and the users of it so I think there will be other or bitcoin and it is very difficult to be in the place of bitcoin but it is the crypto market there can be anything so I hope bitcoin will be forever and it should be

[Argoo]

IMO, Bitcoin will be able to achieve it's peak valuation in another 10 years or so (~2030). I don't want to predict the scenario for very distant future, because similar to other technological innovations, Bitcoin also has a limited shelf-life. In fact it is surprising that despite so much of competition from technologically superior altcoins such as Cardano, Polkadot and Chainlink, none of them have even come close to topple Bitcoin from the top position. Anyway, I am skeptical about Bitcoin surviving for the very distant future. The current format for private keys are not going to hold for more than 10-15 years from now. Either Bitcoin will be replaced, or it will undergo hard-forks to remove the vulnerabilities.

Well, I quite agree with your point of view. In another ten years, everything will change. We see that the current cryptocurrency is far from perfect, and therefore it will continue to change and improve. Bitcoin in this regard is already far behind. In ten years, he will either become different or lose his status as the leader of the cryptocurrency. As for its price, its estimated price even at half a million dollars seems to me from the realm of fantasy. The higher the price of bitcoin rises, the more difficult such an increase will be. I do not know who will invest such large sums of money, seeing that it still periodically drops in price, although so far with a general rise in price. In general, it is too difficult to build forecasts for the development of cryptocurrency, and especially its price.

[Lucius]

This is a big exaggeration and I hope that no one is buying bitcoin with the hope that in 20 years' time they will be a millionaire. we have to look at our own age, our life expectancy when we do hodl, it doesn't make much sense for someone to just do hodl for 20 years, bitcoin is to be used to buy things

No one should be surprised by anything related to Bitcoin, because we don't need to go back to the beginning at all, but maybe only 5 years in the past and read how people thought then - I believe we would find it hard to find anyone mentioning the price we have today. Furthermore, Hal was a great visionary and one of those who is certainly very much lacking in the crypto world - so I would not say that he is exaggerating, but only talking about the complete success of Bitcoin that can happen in 10 or 20 years.

Imagine a time when central banks store Bitcoin as they store gold today, as millions of people try to get hold of every satoshi that appears on the market every day - $10 million per BTC doesn't seem so impossible, especially considering that $ will continue to lose in value.

[sanjusajan]

In the world of crypto we cannot say for the feature there are many other crypto which are working hard to make their coin more strong and in the feature may be bitcoin or another crypto will be top  1 and if the bitcoin run according to the before 2 years then it will be above 2 million in coming 20 years I think but I cannot say exactly because it is crypto market and there is no any fixed but I hope the bitcoin is top 1 and it will be top 1 in the feature.

[Tashana]

It's hard to say, I think there is 10 million US dollars, maybe faster.
But I still can't believe that Bitcoin will continue to rise. Its value shouldn't be rising all the time. Now the price of the house has fallen. There is no commodity that has been rising.