Bitcoin Stock to Flow Multiple Chart (Price / S2F Price)| blue again

[Husires]

I did not find a dedicated topic that is updated periodically about S2F Price, I decided to create this topic and will update it every 3 days to avoid spam.
Local rule: All discussions are related to charts only.

Stock-to-Flow Multiple (463d)
2021-07-24, 23:59 UTC

ln(actual / model)

Actual price: $34,166.91
Model price: $91,588.35
S2F multiple: -0.99


Sources: https://twitter.com/s2fmultiple/status/1419156779045433351

about Stock-to-Flow & discussion:

Stock-to-Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity

[WePiggy]

What's worrying about this trend is that it has never gone outside the light blue bands at the lower end, only the upper end when it peaks. It the price does dip again it will be the first time on record (excluding the beginning) that it has dropped so low based on this model.

Will it mean that it is an exceptional opportunity to buy, or will the model be invalidated? Also, it might cause a capitulation event where people stop believing and cash out. Let's hope the bottom is in and it won't drop lower than $31.5k

[hatshepsut93]

What's worrying about this trend is that it has never gone outside the light blue bands at the lower end, only the upper end when it peaks. It the price does dip again it will be the first time on record (excluding the beginning) that it has dropped so low based on this model.

Will it mean that it is an exceptional opportunity to buy, or will the model be invalidated? Also, it might cause a capitulation event where people stop believing and cash out. Let's hope the bottom is in and it won't drop lower than $31.5k

The model was likely created to fit the lower ranges to create a feeling that it's very accurate, and if the price goes even higher than it predicts, that's even better. So, if Bitcoin won't reach and stay at $100k soon, the model would start looking bad and its author will probably release an adjusted one which will have lower range.

[Husires]

Stock-to-Flow Multiple (463d)
2021-07-26, 23:59 UTC

ln(actual / model)

Actual price: $37,444.78
Model price: $92,818.94
S2F multiple: -0.91


Source: https://twitter.com/s2fmultiple/status/1419881554990542895

We are still under evaluation. The model predicts a price of about $90,000, we are less than $40,000.

The price may increase significantly in the coming days, but it seems that the price is still able to maintain this pattern.

What's worrying about this trend is that it has never gone outside the light blue bands at the lower end, only the upper end when it peaks. It the price does dip again it will be the first time on record (excluding the beginning) that it has dropped so low based on this model.

Don't be afraid, see the update.

[maisao1991]

this is a chart i feel the level of 100k$ looks very bad this is an unpredictable chart , i personally feel this chart is really just a prediction the author of the model did the rotation chart move more and more unpredictable about its reality.

[Husires]

Stock-to-Flow Multiple (463d)
2021-08-21, 23:59 UTC

ln(actual / model)

Actual price: $49,070.24
Model price: $104,665.80
S2F multiple: -0.76

Source https://twitter.com/s2fmultiple/status/1429303638527250433

[Husires]

Stock-to-Flow Multiple (463d)
2021-08-28, 23:59 UTC

ln(actual / model)

Actual price: $48,852.47
Model price: $102,836.13
S2F multiple: -0.74

* Note: The price is very close to the blue border, we are expected to get 60k soon, the current positions are still good to buy.

Source: https://twitter.com/s2fmultiple/status/1431840355670974465

[Husires]

Warning These recommendations are long-term models for those who want to build a long-term investment portfolio.
It should not be taken as investment advice.


Stock-to-Flow Multiple (463d)
2021-09-12, 23:59 UTC

ln(actual / model)

Actual price: $46,180.61
Model price: $101,423.30
S2F multiple: -0.79


Source: https://twitter.com/s2fmultiple/status/1437276177815805956

The price is still in the range that makes buying currently very good, it is unlikely that the price will stay under the 50k dollar levels for the coming months, so it may be the last time we see the price at this level for a long time during this year.

[dragonvslinux]

Looks like buying time 

Going to dump more altcoin profits for satoshis I think 

[Husires]

I saw a lot of fear starting to spread so let's look at things more broadly:

My worst case scenario for 2021 (price/on-chain based): Aug>47K, Sep>43K, Oct>63K, Nov>98K, Dec>135K

Source: https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1406577006230245376


Stock-to-Flow Multiple (463d)
2021-09-20, 15:59 UTC

ln(actual / model)

Actual price: $43,318.47
Model price: $101,430.21
S2F multiple: -0.79


Source: https://twitter.com/s2fmultiple/status/1439812895089565698

[tabas]

I saw a lot of fear starting to spread so let's look at things more broadly:

FUD, cannot be avoided and they'll take the opportunity when they see the market starts to drop.

My worst case scenario for 2021 (price/on-chain based): Aug>47K, Sep>43K, Oct>63K, Nov>98K, Dec>135K

Source: https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1406577006230245376

We'll see if this is going to happen, still remaining positive despite the few thousand bucks of drop. People still have to analyze how much it has been since bitcoin has recovered from the lowest just also this year.

[tertius993]

I saw a lot of fear starting to spread so let's look at things more broadly:

FUD, cannot be avoided and they'll take the opportunity when they see the market starts to drop.

My worst case scenario for 2021 (price/on-chain based): Aug>47K, Sep>43K, Oct>63K, Nov>98K, Dec>135K

Source: https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1406577006230245376

We'll see if this is going to happen, still remaining positive despite the few thousand bucks of drop. People still have to analyze how much it has been since bitcoin has recovered from the lowest just also this year.

Its already gone below $43k - Stamp touched $40,193 yesterday.  Would have thought sub-$40k was quite likely before September is out.

[tabas]

Its already gone below $43k - Stamp touched $40,193 yesterday. 

I saw it right now on $41k.

Would have thought sub-$40k was quite likely before September is out.

Likely but the month hasn't ended it and many are still optimistic including me that we shouldn't worry about it.

[el kaka22]

Model price shows $101k but I am afraid that is not going to happen anytime soon. Don't get me wrong it is just a chart and you are not saying something, you are just telling what the chart shows and that's it. What I am going against here is not what you said or tell, it is what the chart shows. I believe that the price may not be over 50k by the end of the year if something do not change.

Right now, liquidity is getting lower plus the interest and attention bitcoin (and crypto as a whole) getting is lowering so we are in a prime situation to let whales manipulate the work. This is what they are doing right now and I am not entirely sure if we can be any good unless people start to really care about it.

[Husires]

Back in blue:

Stock-to-Flow Multiple (463d)
2021-10-17, 23:59 UTC

ln(actual / model)

Actual price: $61,462.22
Model price: $100,380.17
S2F multiple: -0.49

Source: https://twitter.com/s2fmultiple/status/1449959741015437317

My worst case scenario for 2021 (price/on-chain based): Aug>47K, Sep>43K, Oct>63K, Nov>98K, Dec>135K

Source: https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1406577006230245376

I don't want to be pessimistic but this month's acceleration has been faster than usual.
We are still in the blue zone which means the acceleration is likely to increase but keep in mind that the bottom is at 63k

[buwaytress]

63k bottom for October or bottom for 2021? If the house falls, post-Nov ATH, I doubt 63k is the bottom. 63k might be the eventual layover but only as a bounce from a severe selloff, following the bubble pattern anyway. But this year's rise hasn't been much like 2017's parabola (yet).

Not an avid follower of PlanB but I've been seeing him hitting the vids every now and then and yeah, his model's proven to be the most accurate (if you're generous with keeping his bottom line and not his upside, that is). So I'm happy if his "modest" 135k does hit in December -- it's incidentally what is my most optimistic TP, if I were looking to trade.

[sunsilk]

My worst case scenario for 2021 (price/on-chain based): Aug>47K, Sep>43K, Oct>63K, Nov>98K, Dec>135K

Source: https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1406577006230245376

I don't want to be pessimistic but this month's acceleration has been faster than usual.
We are still in the blue zone which means the acceleration is likely to increase but keep in mind that the bottom is at 63k

I saw this tweet of him from someone re posted it and shocks they're accurate. And telling about the 'worst case' then there's a better result that might be seen at the end of this year.

Well, let's see how it's going to go for November and December. I'd love to see it go from those two prices. $98k and $135k. For sure a lot will start selling at that point.

[darkangelosme]

Everything is possible dude that's why I don't rely so much on chart i just believe my in my intuition and so far luckyly it never fails me as of now  , I'll just follow the law of buy when low and sell when high.

[dragonvslinux]

My worst case scenario for 2021 (price/on-chain based): Aug>47K, Sep>43K, Oct>63K, Nov>98K, Dec>135K

Source: https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1406577006230245376

I don't want to be pessimistic but this month's acceleration has been faster than usual.
We are still in the blue zone which means the acceleration is likely to increase but keep in mind that the bottom is at 63k

Personally I interrupted the >$63K very different to yourself it seems. That of price exceeding $63K in October (which has already happened), or a close above $63K by the end of October (that we have yet to see). I'm otherwise much less convinced by the >$98K in November, even if admittedly this would be a mere 50% increase within a month (which after an 80% and 70% rises doesn't seem unrealistic). I was also very unconvinced by price reaching $63K in October, but given this happened, I'll acknowledge the fact that there is some validity to these price predictions: that of being considerably accurate so far.

The >$135K by December seems about right though

[Husires]

I have not updated this topic for a while, the recent rise, made me rethink it, people think BTC will be stable/crash but it can pump in green (like 2011) the coming months are the last chance to prove the feasibility of such schemes.

We can read this data with supply levels that have not moved in over a year at that level set since September 2020.

Source: @DylanLeClair_ & @100trillionUSD