Drop from $60k to $30k was part of bull run cycle?

[GreatArkansas]

This chart looks really accurate, as the Twitter user said, it is a bitcoin cycle indicator. It shows the different phases of the cycle for Bitcoin since the beginning.
Another thing that I am surprised about here and amaze because of using a Fibonacci retracement and extension which will help to identify a pullback of a certain asset or best idea for price level for taking profits.

Currently, if we will base on the chart, we are in the Mania Phase, which is expecting to happen to start this month until the month of September.

What are your thoughts?

https://twitter.com/misconfig_exe/status/1408544229173858305/photo/1

[LoyceV]

I like the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, which puts us still in the HODL phase, and far from lower than a possible new ATH. Repeated drops have always been part of Bitcoin bull runs, but you can only be sure what it was when you're looking back afterwards.
A 50% drop can be followed by another 60% drop, but it can just as easily be followed by a 400% increase. My money is (quite literally) on the latter scenario.

The previous ATH never felt like a top. As Tytanowy Janusz put it:

I think that bubble that we've seen should not end up with 3 month consolidation. Thats not how bubble looks like. Every bitcoin bubble, dotcom bubble (tech bubbles), tulip bubble (dumb bubble), silver in 2011 ended with masive final spike - pure mania of street invesotrs and short squeez of early shorters.

[buwaytress]

Was just saying in another thread this really doesn't feel like it's done -- but we should be approaching that pointy top. Because a threefold price increase in 4 months -- relative to everything else Bitcoin's done in previous years -- really doesn't seem like the sort of massive peak supernova that's been descriptive of every bubble cycle thus far.

Won't be bitterly disappointed if we're all wrong, so I'm good to wait and see.

If we're right, though, it's got to be the next few months, though, huh?

[zanezane]

I do hope so that that's going to be the cycle and I think that if the prices did go up at 60k, I would probably sell about half of what I hodl so I can prepare in the case that it does go down again by about half. I already have a decent amount of bitcoin so I can afford to throw some away whenever the opportunity arrives.

[davis196]

Did this cycle indicator predict the Elon Musk/China FUD,which crashed the Bitcoin price from 56K to 35K back in May? I don't think so...
Those charts are good at predicting price patterns based on previous price patterns,which is a wrong approach,event though Bitcoin is kinda "designed" to move in pump/dump or bull/bear cycles.
Such charts/cycle indicators cannot predict when major FUD news will strike the Bitcoin market and crash the BTC price.The behavior of governments and crypto whales cannot be predicted by any online tool or software.

[thecodebear]

We're in a long term bull market (think super cycle - many years), so yes the drop in late Spring and the bottoming in the $30,000s was just the end of the first bullish phase of the super cycle. Which is why Bitcoin seems to be getting ready to come out of the market bottom and start moving up again after less than three months, because we're not in a crypto winter, just in a transition stage of the bull run. Market got a bit overheated (specifically shitcoins) this Spring plus there was the Musk market manipulating nonsense and the China mining ban, which all brought an end to the first bullish stage. Expect the next year or so to be bullish and price to probably go a bit over $100k (maybe double this year's high) before we see another of these medium term down periods / mini-bear markets.

Just don't expect a big pump and crypto winter coming at like end of this year. Some people think this will be like 2013 with two peaks. That's not what is going on. Price ain't gonna skyrocket to $200k in the next few months and then plummet back to $30k like you'd expect based on previous cycles. Next turn peak/bottom points will probably happen during 2022 and be in the $100k - $150k and $50k - $80k ranges. Halvings will still affect the market, though less so, but the four year cycle has now given way to a super cycle in which we don't see the massive boom thousands of percent booms nor the massive 80% busts, the new market participants are regulating the price a bit more than the pure FOMO and panic driven forces that previously made up 100% of the market.

[hugeblack]

I do not think the models will be identical because what happened in 2013 is not as happened in 2017 and do not forget the impact of Covid-19 that may add a new variable for the equation leads to be difficult to predict.

Many variables and expectations are open but the point of 60 thousand dollars was not the price of the price and we have seen much higher waves.
Do not forget that we are at the dreams levels if we return to the date of 2020 as no One believed to reach the level of 20 thousand.

[freedomgo]

It's not easy to predict the future since in general bitcoin is very unpredictable, however, sticking with the market trends, it will make things easy for me. With the recent movement, I believe that we are still heading in a bear market and after the bull run it's normal to see a price correction and some short bull run but it does not guarantee that we will be back to a bull market we experience in the later months last year and early months this year.

if we look at the last 2017 bull run, the price almost hit $20k but bitcoin dropped $3k+, people got panic because of a long correction then slowly bitcoin recovers until the right time has come where a new ATH was born again.

I can see the long-term movement as bullish and it might take years again to see a new ATH.

[OgNasty]

It's not easy to predict the future since in general bitcoin is very unpredictable, however, sticking with the market trends, it will make things easy for me. With the recent movement, I believe that we are still heading in a bear market and after the bull run it's normal to see a price correction and some short bull run but it does not guarantee that we will be back to a bull market we experience in the later months last year and early months this year.

if we look at the last 2017 bull run, the price almost hit $20k but bitcoin dropped $3k+, people got panic because of a long correction then slowly bitcoin recovers until the right time has come where a new ATH was born again.

I can see the long-term movement as bullish and it might take years again to see a new ATH.

The stock to flow chart has done a fairly good job at predicting future price movement in the past. There are a ton of different charts all showing the same thing. Big drops are necessary to clear out leverage and teach people to buy and hold instead of trade. It’s actually a good thing healthy growing markets do. I wouldn’t take $100K+ off the table for this year yet. At this point I would be more surprised if we don’t hit new highs in the next couple months.

[sheenshane]

The behavior of governments and crypto whales cannot be predicted by any online tool or software.

It's kinda good to be true and I tend to agree with this, Bitcoin price will remain unpredictable, and sometimes the price varies of the news and trend by the government's adoption will always have an effect on the Bitcoin price and it could be moving in an unknown direction.

But there's nothing wrong with this chart indicator, this is just a tool to technically support our prediction and it could be there's really have different phases of the cycle on the Bitcoin price.  However, if you're going to ask me about the market condition we are still good and I think the price will not go down below $30k dollars this year, even though there's no infinite growth but at least we saw strong resistance right after a correction as of now.

It's tougher to predict, but the thing that comes up in my mind, a new ATH has been done and we need to wait for another next halving before it will create another all-time high.

[adaseb]

I never realised the Fib projection of 1.618 actually was strong support back in 2017 and this year. First time I've seen this on a chart. Very interesting. Could we be in this super cycle and go to like $150K or so, maybe. Who knows?

Keep in mind that there is always a chance that the right shoulder of the weekly chart could hold and we can still retest the $30K area, or even the last ATH of $20K or 200WMA which is like $14K or so.

People are very bullish right now however because they are thinking 2021 is a repeat of 2013 where we bottomed in July and will top out in Nov/Dec. And it'll break the $64K and stall out somewhere at the end of the year over $100K.

[Baofeng]

I never realised the Fib projection of 1.618 actually was strong support back in 2017 and this year. First time I've seen this on a chart. Very interesting. Could we be in this super cycle and go to like $150K or so, maybe. Who knows?

Keep in mind that there is always a chance that the right shoulder of the weekly chart could hold and we can still retest the $30K area, or even the last ATH of $20K or 200WMA which is like $14K or so.

People are very bullish right now however because they are thinking 2021 is a repeat of 2013 where we bottomed in July and will top out in Nov/Dec. And it'll break the $64K and stall out somewhere at the end of the year over $100K.

Yeah, the S2F model points a similarity to a 2013 that's why its prediction is still $100k.

And the last quarter of the year was a really strong push, just like what we have seen in previous bull runs or even last year. The last bottom though is $28k, or least around the line, there's also one thread saying that we should get to $14k first before we expect a massive bull run before the end of the month, but so far we didn't reach that yet.

[Kong Hey Pakboy]

I do not think the models will be identical because what happened in 2013 is not as happened in 2017 and do not forget the impact of Covid-19 that may add a new variable for the equation leads to be difficult to predict.

Many variables and expectations are open but the point of 60 thousand dollars was not the price of the price and we have seen much higher waves.
Do not forget that we are at the dreams levels if we return to the date of 2020 as no One believed to reach the level of 20 thousand.

Exactly, history in this one never seem to repeat itself which is a good thing because you don't exactly have the constant people in the market, it will grow in number or it will decrease overtime. I do hope too that with a different model, we see that it results in something really positive.

[Macadonian]

Was just saying in another thread this really doesn't feel like it's done -- but we should be approaching that pointy top. Because a threefold price increase in 4 months -- relative to everything else Bitcoin's done in previous years -- really doesn't seem like the sort of massive peak supernova that's been descriptive of every bubble cycle thus far.

Won't be bitterly disappointed if we're all wrong, so I'm good to wait and see.

If we're right, though, it's got to be the next few months, though, huh?

Before the end of the year a new ATH will be established watch this space

[pealr12]

I have been reading similar view from a crypto analyst I follow, he believes we are still in bull run that btc will record another ath, so am hoping he is right, now seeing this post seem like many people are of the same opinion, let's hope this eventually plays out as many people are predicting, I keep buying little amount of btc to increase my stack.

[Review Master]

Looks like, crossover of 20 & 50 weekly MA won't start bear market as par the OP's chart. But that crossover was the starting of bear market in the past two bull season. Lets see what'll happen in the upcoming months, bullish or bearish. TBH, i'm still hoping to see bitcoin more than $100k and won't wonder if history doesn't repeat this time. 

[hatshepsut93]

This chart looks really accurate, as the Twitter user said, it is a bitcoin cycle indicator. It shows the different phases of the cycle for Bitcoin since the beginning.

I don't think looking at the past can help a lot with prediction Bitcoin's future, there's very little data to look for patterns, and you should also keep in mind that conditions greatly changed - Bitcoin went from being traded by amateurs with a few millions of daily volume to being traded by pros and having many billions in volume. Also things like derivatives were non-existent in early days, but now they are clearly influencing short-term price, as you can see how the pumps/dumps are aligned with things like options expiration dates.

[Kusman]

Maybe it was, maybe not. I don't really know. But in my opinion, it was not related to a bull run cycle. It was one of the usual dumps after a huge rise. It's always happened before. This is a part of this market, the volatility. And I don't think that this will ever change. I mean that these coins (except stable ones) will never change their main characteristics. We were in the bear market and now it started seeming like we've entered the bull market again.

[proudhon]

[AliMan]

~snip~

This chart looks really accurate, as the Twitter user said, it is a bitcoin cycle indicator. It shows the different phases of the cycle for Bitcoin since the beginning.
Another thing that I am surprised about here and amaze because of using a Fibonacci retracement and extension which will help to identify a pullback of a certain asset or best idea for price level for taking profits.

Currently, if we will base on the chart, we are in the Mania Phase, which is expecting to happen to start this month until the month of September.

What are your thoughts?

https://twitter.com/misconfig_exe/status/1408544229173858305/photo/1

That looks promising to see right now, I've seen little down trend after $40k was achieved but as the fluctuations progressively undertaking right this moment let's see more great changes happens. Bull run cycle has different behavior, what we're having as of these days was just successive developments, $30k or below was only part of its growing value. Cherish every footsteps, and don't let your fear break it all down and our journey towards $60k will again blossom.