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December 03, 2011, 01:11:53 AM |
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Rather than punctuated equilibrium with significantly different metastable ranges, I think (and hope) we'll see a slow and gradual rise in the exchange rate, perhaps 1-10 cents per week. Like most finance and banking, bitcoin is more useful to more people when it's boring and relatively static. In the $3 range, 3 cents per week is still a 4% rise per month, a far better ROI than almost any other investment.
I don't see the price going above $4 this month, maybe a spike but I'd be surprised if the price stabilized above $4 before mid-January. Bitcoin was obviously oversold at $2, given the triple bottom and subsequent rises each time over the past two months, and I think the main reason it didn't drop further is that miners stopped selling as many coins. If the price rises to the $4+ range this month, I think miners will start selling a higher percentage of their coins, adding downward pressure on the price. Also, the downward pressure from the holiday season starts now, and will continue well into January, as more people than usual will feel broke.
So, temper those enthusiasms, and here's to holding $3-$4 until the end of the year. <clink> Cheers!
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