mikeywith
Legendary
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Activity: 2212
Merit: 6367
be constructive or S.T.F.U
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57TH will make you a bout $21.5 a day before the power bill, since you posted this 2 days ago, i'll just worth with the highest number you could have had then which is $22.5 with btc price at $46,800.
This means, you think you will be paying $2.5 a day to run a 57TH gear, for that to be accurate you need to spend 10 cents an hour, based on your 16c kWh, you will need a gear that consumes 625w and puts out a 57TH, that means a gear that has an efficiency of 11w/th, which is about 30% of the consumption of the most effienct gear known to mankind, so no, your numbers are WRONG.
The best gear you could buy will be in the 30w/th range, which will be $6.5 for the power bill per day, and the cost will be in the 7k range, so as it stands it's 437.5 days to pay back for the machine, not sure what you did wrong, but your numbers are far off.
But just to answer your question, the numbers you see on whattomine.com and the other website are rather accurate (assuming you input the right power consumption which I think you didn't), it's not a guessing game, they take your "potential" hashrate and divide it by the total hashrate and since the block reward is constant, it's easy to accurately (not 100% accurate since luck and block fees vary) tell you how much you could have made today, but here is a recent incident, 2 days ago when you did the math, you could have got $22.5, now it shows $21.5, it goes out to show that it's very normal for this number to keep dropping.
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