Is Satoshi Dice Still Fair?

[sukbir]

On 20th July, Satoshidice made a big change on their website by decreasing the winning number drastically.
Following are the changes:



As a daily player, I notice that one of the player was winning almost 50+ BCH per day from betting on x25, x3 and 1.5.
During the time Satoshi Dice had around 450 BCH in their wallet, and as the player was aiming for max win return (10 BCH). Therefore, in 4-to-5-day course the player cleared out the Satoshi Dice wallet to around 5 BCH and transferred to his address.

NOTE: This is the player address: “qz37fjswavhu2q88eu5y378kfnl752xul5vf23wnua”

https://blockchair.com/bitcoin-cash/address/qz37fjswavhu2q88eu5y378kfnl752xul5vf23wnua

I do play and observe the site on daily basis and notice a significant change on site as none of the players seems to get back their own initials on their bets. – See attached image (captured on: 12/08/2021)





The reason my claim for this is because after the changes in the site, the same player lost around 80% of their winning in just few days which helped Satoshi dice recovered more than the amount they lost in less than a week. Currently they have 520+ BCH in their main wallet.

SatoshiDice Main_Wallet =
https://blockchair.com/bitcoin-cash/address/qz9cq5m250zxqfvvm2p5hp4yv7rung4shukgcguxjd

Since the changes has been made, it seems like the dice is no longer fair.

To support my claim on this, I tried to dig deeper and captured my own live bets on which I found the number has been decreased also, does not match the percent shown on the website.

The followings are the win rates before and after the changes made on site:

% Shown in site for x1000= 0.10%
% Captured on live bet for x1000 = % Before changes = 0.000991
% Captured on live bet for x1000 = % After changes = 0.000976


As seen above, the site shows 0.10% winning change in x1000, however my research on it shows the winning percent was only “0.000991” before the changes were made but, after the changes even though the number did not change a lot “0.000976” it is not fair to provide false information to players as it is no where near 0.10%.

Please see the captured data information below: -

% Captured on live bet for x1000 before the changes made on site:
bet: 65
betAmount: 0.002
broadcasted: true
depositTxHash: "8e893580e81f040dfcf6ff62f26b0fa4f10efd40e380440ab0a698dc89939bda"
id: 2700486
jackpotWin: 0
jackpotWon: false
overmax: false
payout: 2
payoutTxHash: "c11df44c4d331f27351ac1a965aa5c9584579a1862bb834fef1638de73e3c53d"
paytable: 28
playerAddress: "1HEzMdNN6t48zCzef5qJhBDP6fp8TbftJH"
progressiveContribution: 0
randomSeed: "3f6f53efe94c31f524dbad8d639ad99fa53b33042cc4ca0f84e17e65f42acb27"
refunded: 0
roll: 47
serverSeedHash: "277ca0b480f1937d9c7def989b1d315a65e1267b0d43af16747b9ce9b26074a3"
status: 3
timestamp: "Jan 12, 2021 6:20:54 AM"
timestampUnix: 1610432454694
valid: true
vout: 0
win: true
winChance: 0.000991
type: "event"

% Captured on live bet for x1000 after the changes made on site:
{
    "game": {
        "serverSeedHash": "6624aa45d902233a0a34bff96b6fc9fd114534a5d87a0d0dcb3e275767e1b240",
        "winChance": 0.000976,
        "overmax": false,
        "roll": 9,
        "payout": 1,
        "broadcasted": true,
        "payoutTxHash": "0b619bfa8cefd8e820f92812ecd7a5e382089560127a8db12cfdb0d652571c86",
        "playerAddress": "1E8z59uZLm7kFXpDbGUqg752pJAbyF53o5",
        "paytable": 41,
        "vout": 2640,
        "randomSeed": "c999348a0a9eb3668f96b8c28211f07a658a2cb84c76076e7bdaa8d50a7946b7",
        "bet": 64,
        "valid": true,
        "jackpotWin": 0,
        "betAmount": 0.001,
        "timestampUnix": 1628339753572,
        "progressiveContribution": 0,
        "jackpotWon": false,
        "refunded": 0,
        "id": 6410319,
        "depositTxHash": "4be7a7a2c0165796eddb6cc653ec52e6a2504c9603f931fe8716facc0e5a3e3d",
        "win": true,
        "status": 3,
        "timestamp": "Aug 7, 2021 12:35:53 PM"
    },
    "type": "event"
}

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[just_Alice]

It all seemed like a reasonable assumption to me until I reached the point where you describe win chance. As I understand, the main idea is that the website has made some changes after a big win by a certain player to recover their losses - a plausible idea. But the numbers are so insignificantly different: 0.000991 vs 0.000976, do you really think that could’ve helped the website to trick players and make them lose more often?

You also compare the declared winning chance to the real one. I agree, they differ seriously, but that doesn’t have anything to do with the matter. You’ve had no complaints against the website before, right? Even though the winning chance was different from alleged already then.

To conclude, I believe this may be true, but the evidence isn’t sufficient.

[janggernaut]

I wouldn't want touch new satoshi dice site again (at least until they have proven they are legit just like old days). The site was went offline for quite long time before came back again in gambling industry (seems with new owner).

Simple advice, just play on reputable gambling site which known trusted instead looking for other gambling site

[ralle14]

With those winning roll changes that means they've adjusted their house edge but that doesn't mean they're not fair just because the win chance they've mentioned in the site is slightly off.

What if they just want to make things look clean that's why they rounded off the value.

The site was went offline for quite long time before came back again in gambling industry (seems with new owner).

The current owner is somewhat reputable though they also own bitcoinvideocasino (if you've heard that site).

[nakamura12]

With those winning roll changes that means they've adjusted their house edge but that doesn't mean they're not fair just because the win chance they've mentioned in the site is slightly off.

What if they just want to make things look clean that's why they rounded off the value.

The site was went offline for quite long time before came back again in gambling industry (seems with new owner).

The current owner is somewhat reputable though they also own bitcoinvideocasino (if you've heard that site).

Correct, if I am the owner of that site and I change the winning or the house edge does not mean I can't be trusted. It's also not easy to take care of the site especially if you have more than one site to take care of. There are other reasons why they made some changes. Maybe the site is doing some recovery from house edge especially op mentioned that there is a player who won 50+ bch everyday and a gambling site that doesn't have a feature where a peror a group of people can invest and use their money as part of the bankroll. Gambling sites that doesn't have a lot of bankroll are most likely to go bankrupt if they didn't change the winning percentage or chance. So, I support ralle14's statement.