(Question) When Will Physical Crypto Coins & Tokens Enter A Bull Market?

[Eclipse33]

When and how do you think we will we see a bull market in crypto collectables?

From what happened with dogecoin, I think anything is possible.

All it would take is some celebrity or high status individual to post a photo of a physical crypto (And make it seem "Cool")  and people would begin breaking down the door to this forum.

Guys, think logically here. Some of these physical crypto coins have mintages anywhere from 2000 - 100 coins per edition.

The supply shock of having say a million people attempting to get their hands on these coins would blow the lid off this market.

Look at what happened with "Cryptopunks" and the whole NFT thing. Physical crypto coins are rarer and cooler than NFTs IMO.

What do you think?  

[ChiBitCTy]

I have been collecting physical cryptocurrency collectibles since around late 2014 early 2015 or so and have noticed several bull markets already.  I would argue that we are currently in one right now.  Just a few months ago, not even a year I would say, you could buy a Satori chip for $50-60 dollars, now they often sell for $200 dollars and up.  BTCC 1k Poker chips could be had for $90-125 a year ago or so, now I highly doubt that you could find one under $200-250.  

I have been trying to promote the physical cryptocurrency hobby for some time now.  I run the PhysicalCryptocurrency Instagram Page ( which I am currently locked out of, if anyone knows anyone who works at facebook, please help!) and have helped bring a few new collectors from it over the years, and it is growing, albeit slower than I had hoped for.  I also post a lot on other sites such as YouTube, Redditt, Twitter ( though reddit and twitter are filled with haters) etc.  There is that newer marketplace that someone from the forum recently sold a gold Kialara bar on, and have seen other physical collectibles selling on there lately but I can't think of the name of it.  I believe they sell a lot of NFTs on this site as well.  Maybe someone could help out with the name of it.. anyway moral of the story is more people need to share these items on social media and what not.  Every bit helps.

I have seen some very famous people pictured with physical cryptocurrency collectibles before, albeit only with Kialaras.  When I saw Kim Kardashian holding a Kialara I was pretty blown away (and texted Max/Kialara instantly who had not yet seen it) https://blog.wildtornado.casino/news/kim-kardashian-gets-a-tangible-bitcoin-at-the-poker-table/ .  After that happened, Kialara's flew off the shelves of Ebay at top dollar.  Ever since then they've become much harder to find on ebay, and even much more so of late.  Other famous people I've seen pictured with Kialaras include Bill Clinton, Steve Wazniak, and Changpeng Zhao.  I can't seem to find the photo of Zhao however (CEO of binance).

[Heisenberg_Hunter]

I can't seem to find the photo of Zhao however (CEO of binance).

Here is a picture of CZ holding a Kialara in his hand : https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1087999143526707201

Kialara's have got good attention since the beginning, because of their mind blowing artwork and more importantly the complexity of their build TBH. But truly speaking, the current market is literally greedy enough and many are running over Digital NFTs which aren't as good and complex as a physical one. Since the Da Vinci days and prior to them, physical art has always been complex to reproduce exactly as how they were. Many attempts to recreate Mona Lisa ended up in a failure and so will continue to happen. The same goes with minting a fake copy of physical bitcoin whereas it's easier to recreate a digital copy of a NFT art.

There is that newer marketplace that someone from the forum recently sold a gold Kialara bar on, and have seen other physical collectibles selling on there lately but I can't think of the name of it.

Seems like you are mentioning about https://scarce.city/ This is the marketplace where Bitcoin Penny sold their manhole and M-BTC sold the golden Kialara bar.

Just a few months ago, not even a year I would say, you could buy a Satori chip for $50-60 dollars, now they often sell for $200 dollars and up.  BTCC 1k Poker chips could be had for $90-125 a year ago or so, now I highly doubt that you could find one under $200-250. 

I think we still have a smaller set of audience and that is the reason these artworks are still heavily undervalued. For example, many of us were lucky enough to grab CryptoDeck Silver cards made by Corrosive for cheaper costs and I believe they are highly undervalued at the moment considering the amount of hard-work went into minting and polishing them. The same goes with other collectible coins and tokens.

[Beparanf]

Maybe after 10 or 20 years from now. Physical coin are prone to physical damage just like the normal fiat coin. Age and condition will make physical coin valuable in the the future. Coins existed long time ago while NFT is a fresh idea that's why it's hot and trending in the market. We can't compare physical coins to NFT.

[Eclipse33]

Maybe after 10 or 20 years from now. Physical coin are prone to physical damage just like the normal fiat coin. Age and condition will make physical coin valuable in the the future. Coins existed long time ago while NFT is a fresh idea that's why it's hot and trending in the market. We can't compare physical coins to NFT.

Maybe down the road a little people will buy and collect these coins as artifacts from young crypto era. Just like how collectors value rare roman coins and rare usa coins. Maybe they will like the physical crypto coins as well. Either way, I think its a good idea to have some diversification in your portfolio and some exposure to physical coins.

[OgNasty]

When and how do you think we will we see a bull market in crypto collectables?

If you are using Bitcoin as your cost basis then it is likely that there will never be a bull market in crypto collectibles without being the result of a drop in exchange rate resulting in you losing you real $ value even as the BTC price of your collectible rises, and they will likely continue to lose value slowly against Bitcoin forever over the long term.  If you are using USD as your cost basis (like the IRS, investors, businesses, & reality) then you are likely to make a decent return on your investment so long as you are buying maker funded collectibles and the makers took appropriate precautions, didn't make mistakes, and aren't scammers.

[Steeley]

Og brings up a point being discussed in another thread as well, where the question is, should you buy a rare coin loaded with .01 when it costs a total of .02, or just buy .02 of pure bitcoin? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5353289.0.

I think the answer that is most financially prudent would be to just buy BTC and Hodl. But for collectors, there is still a lot in our favor for buying & owning some cool collectibles.

The pressure right now to winning financially is that the premiums on coins, as much as we want to think purely in BTC, are being valued in fiat. So, imagine 1 BTC is $40,000 USD and .01 is $400. You buy the .02 coin = $800 USD. When BTC goes to $80,000, hypothetically, and at that moment, you sell the coin for the same exact premium of $400, the math comes out to you receiving back .015. This is a bad deal. The premium has to double in fiat value in order to just keep up and return .02 BTC to you, let alone make gains in BTC. On the other hand, the $800 you spent is now worth $1200. This is the conundrum. $1200 looks like a gain.

Right now 3 factors for keeping pace are in our favor.

1. This collectibles market is still very niche and has a lot of room to grow. How many semi-serious collectors are there right now? 500? 1000? The community could easily grow by 10x and keep premiums rising.
2. Inflation is on a bull run, so maybe the debasement of fiat keeps up with the growth of BTC, although BTC adoption seems to be blowing past just inflation.
3. Arbitrage. Right now most coins being created are popping up here in the forum; we all have a first opportunity to buy them. If you look at Ebay, Sarce.City, etc. you can see that arbitrage happening. The CI Doge coin is one extreme example of crazy increases in value on the premium. Most people new to this collectibles market just do not know where to go to find them. My early strategy was to buy 2 coins I wanted and sell one of them for double to pay for my collection. So far that has worked pretty well and some coins have sold for much more.

I've determined that you should buy coins in fiat when BTC is rising, and sell coins in BTC when there are dips.

[DaveF]

The biggest gains for a bull market that you will see IMO is from the older collectables. Say 2011 - 2014. Not as many coins, many of the makers are gone. Many of the coins are long lost / destroyed.

Compared to what we have now, where people who want to collect grab the coins as they come out and then hold them. As new people come in they get the newer ones and then slowly collect the older ones as they become available. BUT the older coins that are just not coming around as much are going to get very bullish as they come up less and less are more and more people want them.

-Dave

[Eclipse33]

The biggest gains for a bull market that you will see IMO is from the older collectables. Say 2011 - 2014. Not as many coins, many of the makers are gone. Many of the coins are long lost / destroyed.

Compared to what we have now, where people who want to collect grab the coins as they come out and then hold them. As new people come in they get the newer ones and then slowly collect the older ones as they become available. BUT the older coins that are just not coming around as much are going to get very bullish as they come up less and less are more and more people want them.

-Dave

Very good point Dave

[dolphriends]

The biggest gains for a bull market that you will see IMO is from the older collectables. Say 2011 - 2014. Not as many coins, many of the makers are gone. Many of the coins are long lost / destroyed.

Compared to what we have now, where people who want to collect grab the coins as they come out and then hold them. As new people come in they get the newer ones and then slowly collect the older ones as they become available. BUT the older coins that are just not coming around as much are going to get very bullish as they come up less and less are more and more people want them.

-Dave

Agree with 2011-2014 I would also add newer coins from the few older makers is a nice way to go for newer coins.

[JUPITYR]

For the average collector/investor, it could get tricky hold valuable BTC assets on a 3rd party coin.

I've started scaling out of my higher denom coins into lower ones to reduce the risk.

Maybe one day, intact crypto coins will be worth money for their collectible/historical value regardless of whether or not the privkey is secure or not. 

Ideally, the BTC-wealthy folks will hold on to some of the more rare, original funded items for posterity. 

[Eclipse33]

For the average collector/investor, it could get tricky hold valuable BTC assets on a 3rd party coin.

I've started scaling out of my higher denom coins into lower ones to reduce the risk.

Maybe one day, intact crypto coins will be worth money for their collectible/historical value regardless of whether or not the privkey is secure or not. 

Ideally, the BTC-wealthy folks will hold on to some of the more rare, original funded items for posterity. 

Funded items are definitely considered a liability as the private key could very well be compromised. You literally have to take the coin manufacturers credibility, history and reputation at face value and trust that they would do the right thing and not keep logs. We already have a long list of compromised scam coins because greed overcomes honor.

I think cas and lealana are safe bets but I have been told that lealana has had some slip-ups In the past ( I would love to have anyone in the audience chime in if they know the full story). 

just to add, buyer funded coins are not as desirable as maker funded coins. The maker funded coins will be significantly more valuable than buyer funded coins.

[Steeley]

This is bullish: https://www.ebay.com/itm/324760628000?hash=item4b9d3deb20:g:pR8AAOSwJJpgv6LX

The seller is starting at $1.1M (in the description he or she describes how the order will be cancelled if it does not come in at this price). It's certainly one hell of a coin with original packaging, but that is a large premium 

[blucepheus]

This is bullish: https://www.ebay.com/itm/324760628000?hash=item4b9d3deb20:g:pR8AAOSwJJpgv6LX

The seller is starting at $1.1M (in the description he or she describes how the order will be cancelled if it does not come in at this price). It's certainly one hell of a coin with original packaging, but that is a large premium 

They be dreamin’

[barryonion]

They will never sell it that price hahahaha!

[Eclipse33]

This is bullish: https://www.ebay.com/itm/324760628000?hash=item4b9d3deb20:g:pR8AAOSwJJpgv6LX

The seller is starting at $1.1M (in the description he or she describes how the order will be cancelled if it does not come in at this price). It's certainly one hell of a coin with original packaging, but that is a large premium 

Im still waiting for the first physical bitcoin to smash a million...

will it be a cas? Probably.

[Mbitr]

Im still waiting for the first physical bitcoin to smash a million...

will it be a cas? Probably.

What about a “Satoshi” Times ?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5316513.0

[Eclipse33]

Im still waiting for the first physical bitcoin to smash a million...

will it be a cas? Probably.

What about a “Satoshi” Times ?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5316513.0

not sure if it sold for 10 BTC, if it did then it is a worthy competitor.

[DaveF]

This is bullish: https://www.ebay.com/itm/324760628000?hash=item4b9d3deb20:g:pR8AAOSwJJpgv6LX

The seller is starting at $1.1M (in the description he or she describes how the order will be cancelled if it does not come in at this price). It's certainly one hell of a coin with original packaging, but that is a large premium 

I am guessing it's a 'get out of the sale' thing for them.
Get some free advertising for it, see where it goes and if it does go high enough let it go. But, if not they can come back to the nope didn't get my $1.1 million so not selling it.
Not sure what the eBay policy actually is on that.

-Dave