Hackers/Public will have Access to Quantum Computers in 5-10 years?

[very_452001]

There's a couple of interesting white papers to read:

https://arqit-res.cloudinary.com/image/upload/v1627024109/Assessment_of_Quantum_Threat_To_Bitcoin_and_Derives_Cyrptocurrencies_nrp6iq.pdf

https://arqit-res.cloudinary.com/image/upload/v1627369111/Digital_assets_The_security_problem__yya4bn.pdf


So Quantum Computers will be available to buy in the shops in lets say 10 years time from now and 5 years from now the first commercial business grade quantum computers will be available for sale for businesses.

Quantum computers can get anyone's private keys in fraction of a second.

The few quantum computers in the world today owned by the Big tech giants such as google, Microsoft, even china has one is used to harvest all that data from billions of people to a single point Ai. These quantum computers are massive, require a lot of cooling and are power hungry that require nuclear reactors to run them. But these are the 1st generation quantum computers.

Eventually these quantum computers will get smaller, more efficient to run off the electricity in your home and everyone will have quantum computer in their bedrooms when they hit the shelves in shops or on Amazon online in 10 years time but at a crazy price tag so not everyone can afford one in 10 years time but they will get cheaper and become mainstream especially with gamers for obvious reasons. Playing fortnite at crazy 16k resolution at million frames per second.

So how can Bitcoin survive in this technological quantum era? The B in Bitcoin stands for Bits. Quantum computing is Qubits meaning it can be a binary 1 or 0 at the same time similarly like a light switch being on or off at the same time that sounds crazy and impossible.

Will there be Qitcoin or somewhat?

[1714798449]

1714798449

[o_e_l_e_o]

Quantum computers can get anyone's private keys in fraction of a second.

No, they can't.

Quantum computers can exponentially speed up solving the discrete logarithm problem, but can only linearly speed up finding a collision for a hash. What this means in practice is that they are only useful for brute forcing private keys in which the attacker knows the public key. Given that you public key is only revealed when you make a transaction, sign a message, or otherwise choose to share it, then if you only ever send bitcoin to brand new addresses which you never reuse and never share the public key of, then your bitcoin is 100% safe. A quantum attacker cannot obtain a private key only from knowledge of the address.

Further, quantum computers aren't an "all or nothing" thing. Sure, the first quantum computer might hit the market in a decade, but it will be inefficient and have a very small number of qubits. It would still take thousands of years to crack a single private key. It will be centuries before quantum computers reach the stage that they can reverse a public key to a private key in a "fraction of a second".

At some point, bitcoin will fork to a quantum resistant algorithm.

[kaggie]

More bits will simply be added to new keys.
How many more bits will depend on the strength of the quantum computers.
Addresses will have to update before old ones are crack (still a big if).
Hopefully this will happen slowly enough so that individuals can update their addresses.
Satoshi's coins would though possibly be cracked, and perhaps we will learn more about the identity of SN.

I've never understood the hype around quantum computers. Isn't it just a move back to analog, with a fancy new term?
The problem doesn't change much for much more powerful computers, quantum or otherwise.

[BrianH]

It is fascinating. I am glad you posted this, because I was about to post a thread on this. Had not heard about the threat to crypto from quantum computers in probably a decade, but quantum technology seems to be making major(?) breakthroughs, recently.

Google recently announced they had developed "time crystals," which from my dumbed down interpretation are basically quantum transistors. The problem with quantum computers is that their current "transistors" decay rapidly, are hard to manufacturer and have to be replaced frequently. Time crystals solve both of these problems and potentially make quantum computers a reality. (Don't be evil) Google is the LAST company I would want making these discoveries.

Then again, they have been talking about quantum computing probably before I was born, so who knows how close they really are. But the concern is real if governments were able to develop these machines or have already done so.

China already has a quantum computer?

The news comes after China announced in late 2020 it had achieved 'quantum supremacy' with the development of a photon powered quantum computer.

The Chinese computer is called Jiuzhang and was designed by scientist, Chao-Yang Lu and is said to have the potential to solve mathematical problems in seconds that the world’s fastest conventional computer, Japan’s Fugaku, would take an estimated 600 million years to solve.

China, a country hostile to Bitcoin, Ethereum and decentralised finance cryptocurrencies, could potentially undermine the encryption used to store transactions used in blockchain ledgers if their quantum computer becomes more developed.

Quantum computing could also lay bare private communications, company data, military secrets and obliterate digital banking records.

Quantum computing could utilise the strange effects of quantum mechanics, such as superposition and entanglement, and accelerate the speed by which a quantum computer can solve certain problems, such as hacking encrypted communications in seconds.

The good news is, encryption can and will evolve.

Quantum computers can get anyone's private keys in fraction of a second.

Further, quantum computers aren't an "all or nothing" thing. Sure, the first quantum computer might hit the market in a decade, but it will be inefficient and have a very small number of qubits. It would still take thousands of years to crack a single private key. It will be centuries before quantum computers reach the stage that they can reverse a public key to a private key in a "fraction of a second".

Good to know. What about the hashing algorithm itself? Could it hijack mining?

[kryptqnick]

The general topic of quantum computers as a potential threat to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies has been discussed many times here. Nobody knows for sure how that technology is going to develop and whether it will go significantly beyond what we already have. To make cryptos obsolete, we need a breakthrough in quantum computing, and so far, the topic has been around for years without breakthroughs. When the technology is at early stages, it's really hard to predict if it thrives in the future. When people landed on the Moon in 60s, tourism to planets of the Solar system by the end of the 20th century sounded like a very realistic prediction. And yet, here we are 60 years later, still only being able to go into space and to land of the Moon at best. What I'm saying is that maybe the threat of quantum computers to cryptos will remain the same in 60 years, too.

[Kittygalore]

I don't know if an industrial or a space mission scale of a quantum computer is going to be commercially available for that span of time, yes it's possible that it will be available but I don't think it will be the end for crypto because I am sure that most commercially available is probably going to overheat really fast. Plus, quantum computers are so sensitive and they're the size of a room so it's still impossible to see it really commercially available, maybe a rich person can afford one.

[o_e_l_e_o]

More bits will simply be added to new keys.

No, they won't be.

A quantum computer doesn't just perform the same calculations faster than a regular computer. Rather, depending on the problem it is solving, it can use different processes or algorithms altogether. Instead of it taking an exponential number of operations to reverse a public key to a private key (2^x, where x is the number of bits), it only takes in the order of x³. Moving from 128 bits to 129 bits for regular computer adds another 3.4*10³⁸ operations, but for a quantum computer, only adds another 49,547 operations, which is trivial. It's not simply a case of adding more bits - it requires a fork to a different algorithm altogether.

Good to know. What about the hashing algorithm itself? Could it hijack mining?

It is likely that at some point in the future, quantum computers will become more energy efficient and cheaper than ASICs when it comes to mining. This will not be a sudden event, but rather a gradual process, just as the move from GPUs to ASICs was not a sudden event. Just as the owner of the first ASICs couldn't suddenly mount a 51% attack, neither will the owner of the first quantum computers designed for mining.

[maju69]

If a Quantum computer could do that without the owner's knowledge, then it's pretty clear that the former would be blamed for inventing the production themselves, since at least they've included scripts hoping for data storage. It would be very dangerous, for its users. So far we haven't come across any complaints that went viral enough when shoppers lost some of their data after using a Quantum computer.

[suzanne5223]

First, this issue has been discussed several time on this forum and what I see is that people hype this Quantum computer than its capacity. However, it will take about a thousand or hundred years before Quantum computers that stand a chance to get wallet private keys will be develop, and even if it develops it's still not a threat to Bitcoin and it can't also break the SHA512 which Bitcoin use but it can only derive wallet private keys through an exposed public key.

[dkbit98]

Oh boy it's one more of those quantum computers doomsday thread...  

Quantum computers can get anyone's private keys in fraction of a second.

Who told you that? TV or CNN?
If that is true, all those lost coins private keys would be cracked and sold by now, and that didn't happen.
Quantum computers will be limited doing only one function and by the time they become mainstream, everything will be cracked not just Bitcoin, that means all bank and military security.

So how can Bitcoin survive in this technological quantum era?

Same way like all other encryption related tech we use today.
I guess it will be one more ''death'' of Bitcoins for mainstream media...

Will there be Qitcoin or somewhat?

No, but there are already some shitcoins that are ''quantum resistant''.

[CryptoBuds]

So how can Bitcoin survive in this technological quantum era?

Same way like all other encryption related tech we use today.
I guess it will be one more ''death'' of Bitcoins for mainstream media...

Nontechnical people are reacting like that quantum computer has the superpower to go to people's houses, and will steal their cold storage/physical wallets.
They are so concerned about 256 bits Bitcoin private keys as if 4 digit atm PIN and bank card PIN are irresistible. The algorithm system used in Bitcoin, "ECDSA" is also used to secure the Fb, Twitter, Email, and other messaging apps. No one is talking about that but everyone is so much concerned about Bitcoin.
Another thing is, SHA-256 algorithm is theorized to be quantum-resistant, where Bitcoin is using SHA-512 further secured than SHA-256.

[Kong Hey Pakboy]

Nope, I don't think so. We are at a stage in quantum computing where it's still experimental and the size of one quantum computer is the same size as old computers back then which is worth a room. And I don't think that we will see it become a commercial product until they've figured out how to compact it like a PC and resolve the overheating issue due to the movement of particles.

[Stalker22]

So Quantum Computers will be available to buy in the shops in lets say 10 years time from now and 5 years from now the first commercial business grade quantum computers will be available for sale for businesses.

It's utterly false information and pure speculation. If you had any idea of quantum computing technology, you would not make such nonsense statements.

Quantum computers can get anyone's private keys in fraction of a second.

Once again, you are completely wrong. That is not how quantum computers work.

[aoluain]

OMG, the quantum computer threat again, we have ben over this on the forum on
numerous occasions. Read what @o_e_l_e_o is posting.

I can hear the level of concern some people have and I can sense it turning to panic
all for nothing.

Quantum Computers will be better utilised to contribute to the Bitcoin network and or
put into service by mining Bitcoin.

Also the Bitcoin development team dont sit around drinking coffee and playing games
they work on an unhackable decentralised cryptographic currency technology, and
will continue to do so.

[hd49728]

At some point, bitcoin will fork to a quantum resistant algorithm.

It is how the cryptocurrency can adapt to risk and Bitcoin is the strongest cryptocurrency. Bitcoin is created by satoshi and its total supply will be mined in more than 100 years. Many things will happen in one century and not only Quantum computers but Superb Quantum computers or anything very stronger than Quantum computers can be produced. However, with the fork adaptation, Bitcoin will adapt to risky computers and it will not be broken by new generations of computer.

Nobody can prevent forking process from Bitcoin. After the community vote and reach consensus, fork will be done.

[ranochigo]

People need to understand that quantum annealing isn't applicable to breaking ECDSA because it can't be used with Shor's algorithm. Quantum computers at its current stage are still underpowered such that it makes no difference to the security in the near future. You can't do much if you can't get a sufficiently powerful QC, which should be about 1200 qubits or thereabout for ECDSA.

There is no way in hell governments will let quantum computers out in public. You can break encryption and all the metadata collected by your agencies can then be cracked, why would they sell it to the general public?

However, with the fork adaptation, Bitcoin will adapt to risky computers and it will not be broken by new generations of computer.

Nobody can prevent forking process from Bitcoin. After the community vote and reach consensus, fork will be done.

Your existing addresses are all vulnerable, so is millions of Bitcoin left untouch in their original addresses. I'd cast some doubt on trying to reach consensus on sensitive issues like these. It is a far, far more complex issue than just forking Bitcoin.

[o_e_l_e_o]

Your existing addresses are all vulnerable

Why? Addresses which have not revealed their public key are quite safe, no?

so is millions of Bitcoin left untouch in their original addresses.

This is by far the more contentious issue and the one which will require much more discussion than forking to a quantum resistant algorithm. If sufficiently powerful quantum computers come along, then there will be consensus regarding forking to a quantum resistant algorithm, otherwise it will be the end of bitcoin. What there won't be consensus on is what to do about all the coins in reused addresses and old P2PK addresses which are susceptible to being stolen, including ~1 million bitcoin which are theorized to belong to Satoshi. I am very much in the "Well, let them be stolen camp", but I know that we disagree on this issue.

[ranochigo]

Why? Addresses which have not revealed their public key are quite safe, no?

Woops, wrong choice of words. I meant those either with their public key revealed or P2PK and with the owners having no means of retrieving them.

This is by far the more contentious issue and the one which will require much more discussion than forking to a quantum resistant algorithm. If sufficiently powerful quantum computers come along, then there will be consensus regarding forking to a quantum resistant algorithm, otherwise it will be the end of bitcoin. What there won't be consensus on is what to do about all the coins in reused addresses and old P2PK addresses which are susceptible to being stolen, including ~1 million bitcoin which are theorized to belong to Satoshi. I am very much in the "Well, let them be stolen camp", but I know that we disagree on this issue.

Yep, correct. We've had quite a discussion in that other thread as well.

Regardless, it would be quite hard to tell if there would be disagreements about solving the issue in the future as well, would probably have a myraid of schemes to choose from. Agreeing to solve the issue is a no brainer, how to solve it is also another potential problem.

[ccFOUND]

We have researched and found out that this topic had been long ago discussed many times as a matter of concern, but we came to know that quantum computers are not going to be a threat to bitcoin network or any of its private keys.

Please watch https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5195169.0

And if quantum computers were made to harm crypto, they would have done that already as IBM have their quantum computers, Google have them too. The major issue is, are these institutions going to touch these wallets to destroy crypto in general? Or are they not interested in touching crypto at all and will go on with what purpose these quantum computers are made for? That's the bigger question.

[o_e_l_e_o]

they would have done that already

No, they wouldn't. The quantum computers currently being researched around the world are not even close to powerful enough to even consider attacking a bitcoin key pair. It will be decades yet before they pose any real threat.

The major issue is, are these institutions going to touch these wallets to destroy crypto in general?

Why would they? What would be their incentive to attack bitcoin and crypto in general? Cause millions of tech savvy users and thousands of major corporations around the world to lose a lot of money? Hardly a good business plan for a tech company.