Help with revenue calculations

[DannyHamilton]

While I’ve been active here at bitcointalk for nearly a decade, I’ve avoided getting involved in mining.  It’s been my opinion that, given my local cost of electricity, the cheaper way for me to acquire bitcoins is to buy them, rather than mine them.  However, a few variables have changed recently, and I’m thinking about dipping my toe into the mining pool.  I know that, if I’m going to do this, I’ll need to acquire some sort of ASIC, and I’ll need to figure out how to get it set up.

Here’s the situation…

I now have an electric vehicle, and as such I now have 240 volt 60 amp circuit run to my garage.
I’ve recently insulated my garage to retain some heat.
I live in the Chicagoland area where outdoor winter temperatures regularly drop to -10 Celsius.
My garage doesn’t currently have ANY heating service run to it.

My thought (hope?) is that I can set up an ASIC in my garage, and generate enough heat this winter to keep the temperature in the garage above 0 Celsius while paying for the cost of heating the garage via the BTC generated by the ASIC.  Essentially, the ASIC (hopefully) becomes a garage heater that pays for its own electricity. At the end of the winter, I'd sell the ASIC (assuming I was able to maintain at least break even on the electricity for the duration), so the total cost of heating the garage for the winter would just be the difference between the purchase price and sale price of the ASIC.

I’m trying to figure out how efficient (MHash per Joule) the ASIC needs to be to break even on the electricity used at current difficulty and bitcoin exchange rate. I’m not sure if I’ve got the maths correct, and I was hoping some experienced miners here could check my calculations and let me know if I’ve messed up somewhere.

Here are the values I’m using for my calculations:

- Local electricity cost = $0.13 / kWh
- Current BTC exchange rate: $50,000 / BTC
- Current Satoshis earned per ExaHash: 7668 sat/EHash

Using those numbers, I seem to have calculated that I’ll need an ASIC that generates at least 9,418 MHash/Joule to earn the $0.13 per kWh that I’ll need to break even.  Does that sound right?  Did I mess up the calculation somewhere?  If so, can you explain the correct calculation for me?

Once I understand the correct calculation, I'll set up a spreadsheet where I can regularly update the electric rate, exchange rate, MHash per Joule of the ASIC, and difficulty to determine if I'm still earning at least my cost. That way I can shut off (and sell?) the equipment when it is no longer breaking even, or just avoid buying the equipment at all if I'm not going to be able to break even from the start.

[_Miracle]

I never found an accurate combined calculator but it's been years so maybe improvements have been made?

Here is an old favorite for 2 data points

https://alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator


"Bitcoin Mining Calculator
Got your shiny new ASIC miner? Wondering when it will pay off? If you enter your hash rate below, this page will calculate your expected earnings in both Bitcoins and dollars over various time periods (day, week, and month). It will not attempt to extrapolate difficulty or price changes -- it provides only instantaneous calculations (how much you'd make if all conditions remained as they were right now)."




I check Bitmain from time to time and cost+ the power requirements  always "astounds me"
https://www.bitmain.com

[Difidifi]

Here is a list with all ASIC miners, you can select them by algorithm, and it will show you the profitability https://www.asicminervalue.com/
They calculate a bit too optimistic.
What I would do is to select certain miners, enter their hashrate and power consumption along with your $0.13 /kWh into this website https://whattomine.com/asic (under ASIC SHA-256)
and this will give you accurate results on how profitable each miner truly is.

[philipma1957]

Danny go to viabtc.com

they show you  what they pay per th.

about 35 cents of the top of my head.

So a s17 pro using braiins software can do 50 th at 2 kwatts

so 2 x 24 = 48 round to 50 kwatts a day. that is 50 x .13 or 6.50 a day

and 50 x .35 = 17. 50

17.50- 6.50 = 11 in the black. but costly to buy a s17pro.

two s9 set to 10th each will burn 1600 watts or about 40 kwatts a day that is 5.20 power cost

they earn 20th x .35= 7 a day

that is 1.80 in the black but much cheaper to buy.

Pm for more info.

[Tsub]

While I’ve been active here at bitcointalk for nearly a decade, I’ve avoided getting involved in mining.  It’s been my opinion that, given my local cost of electricity, the cheaper way for me to acquire bitcoins is to buy them, rather than mine them.  However, a few variables have changed recently, and I’m thinking about dipping my toe into the mining pool.  I know that, if I’m going to do this, I’ll need to acquire some sort of ASIC, and I’ll need to figure out how to get it set up.

Here’s the situation…

I now have an electric vehicle, and as such I now have 240 volt 60 amp circuit run to my garage.
I’ve recently insulated my garage to retain some heat.
I live in the Chicagoland area where outdoor winter temperatures regularly drop to -10 Celsius.
My garage doesn’t currently have ANY heating service run to it.

My thought (hope?) is that I can set up an ASIC in my garage, and generate enough heat this winter to keep the temperature in the garage above 0 Celsius while paying for the cost of heating the garage via the BTC generated by the ASIC.  Essentially, the ASIC (hopefully) becomes a garage heater that pays for its own electricity. At the end of the winter, I'd sell the ASIC (assuming I was able to maintain at least break even on the electricity for the duration), so the total cost of heating the garage for the winter would just be the difference between the purchase price and sale price of the ASIC.

I’m trying to figure out how efficient (MHash per Joule) the ASIC needs to be to break even on the electricity used at current difficulty and bitcoin exchange rate. I’m not sure if I’ve got the maths correct, and I was hoping some experienced miners here could check my calculations and let me know if I’ve messed up somewhere.

Here are the values I’m using for my calculations:

- Local electricity cost = $0.13 / kWh
- Current BTC exchange rate: $50,000 / BTC
- Current Satoshis earned per ExaHash: 7668 sat/EHash

Using those numbers, I seem to have calculated that I’ll need an ASIC that generates at least 9,418 MHash/Joule to earn the $0.13 per kWh that I’ll need to break even.  Does that sound right?  Did I mess up the calculation somewhere?  If so, can you explain the correct calculation for me?

Once I understand the correct calculation, I'll set up a spreadsheet where I can regularly update the electric rate, exchange rate, MHash per Joule of the ASIC, and difficulty to determine if I'm still earning at least my cost. That way I can shut off (and sell?) the equipment when it is no longer breaking even, or just avoid buying the equipment at all if I'm not going to be able to break even from the start.

Go to www.whattomine.com and go to the ASIC section and look for SHA-256 miners.  My recommendation is that you need a "heater" not necessarily BTC.  Go for a highly profitable model.  The other thing is, once you start seeing the profits, you probably won't sell it.  I would go with something like a Goldshell KD5 or an LT5 Pro or a S19J 100Th (rigs are high right now).  So think long term.  Winter is not a one time occurance so why sell in the spring?  Keep it running and enjoy the profits year round!

[DannyHamilton]

Thanks everyone.  I'll look into this a bit more and possibly send one or two of you a PM for additional information.

My recommendation is that you need a "heater" not necessarily BTC.

Agreed.  I've thought about it some more, and even if I'm "mining at a loss" (electricity is costing more than I'm earning), it's still worth it to continue running the miner because I'm heating at a profit (spending about the same amount as I would have on running an electric heater, but gaining revenue, which a normal space heeateer would never do).

Go for a highly profitable model.

Since the primary goal is heating the garage, I'm starting to think that what I want is the ASIC that draws the most amps. That will be most effective at heating the space, and at that point ANY revenue is just a bonus.

The next step here is going to be figuring out where/how to purchase the equipment and how to avoid getting scammed.

The other thing is, once you start seeing the profits, you probably won't sell it.

You're probably right.  If it works well enough, I might even convince some friends and/or family to heat normally unheated spaces this way.

Keep it running and enjoy the profits year round!

I suspect that it's going to get way too hot in that garage in the summer to run an ASIC. I'm not interested in running extra cooling just to keep the ASIC running year round.  Too much effort for too little profit.

[btcxz]

You don't really need to worry about it being unprofitable ASIC mining  unless you have old hardware. Please check out whattomine and plug in your numbers to see what you'd earn. Basically anything newer than 2019 will earn you money.

[Tsub]

Thanks everyone.  I'll look into this a bit more and possibly send one or two of you a PM for additional information.

My recommendation is that you need a "heater" not necessarily BTC.

Agreed.  I've thought about it some more, and even if I'm "mining at a loss" (electricity is costing more than I'm earning), it's still worth it to continue running the miner because I'm heating at a profit (spending about the same amount as I would have on running an electric heater, but gaining revenue, which a normal space heeateer would never do).

Go for a highly profitable model.

Since the primary goal is heating the garage, I'm starting to think that what I want is the ASIC that draws the most amps. That will be most effective at heating the space, and at that point ANY revenue is just a bonus.

The next step here is going to be figuring out where/how to purchase the equipment and how to avoid getting scammed.

The other thing is, once you start seeing the profits, you probably won't sell it.

You're probably right.  If it works well enough, I might even convince some friends and/or family to heat normally unheated spaces this way.

Keep it running and enjoy the profits year round!

I suspect that it's going to get way too hot in that garage in the summer to run an ASIC. I'm not interested in running extra c and let thooling just to keep the ASIC running year round.  Too much effort for too little profit.

Here is the thing.  You don't want to go off of just "amp pull".  You want to look at profit and how you want to leverage it.  The other thing is, profit per amp is important, because once you get bit by the mining bug, you may want to buy another.  So take watt / volt (240) = amps.  Then divide the daily revenue by amps and get a $/amp ratio. 

My most protifable miner right now is mid pack on the amp pull, so I actually bought another one last week.  You will find your house to be amp constrained really really fast.  Go for $ per amp ratio and let that be a guide for you.

You don't, just raise the garage door and put a box fan behind it.  I live in Texas, the garage is 99 degrees so I flush out the heat (but I am moving to immersion cooling).  You want the heater.  If it gets "too hot" then just unplug it for a few months and come back!

[kano]

The main problem with any calculation is it will be wrong tomorrow.

The price varies every day and the difficulty varies every 2 weeks.

The biggest winners this year are those mining last year with new equipment back then, that didn't switch off and sell their hardware due to such calculations.

The main point would be to not pay ridiculous high prices for miners, and ensure that your elec cost has a good expectation of being covered for a good distance into the future even if the price isn't much higher and also if the diff does go a lot higher.

[DannyHamilton]

You don't really need to worry about it being unprofitable ASIC mining  unless you have old hardware.

Sounds like nonsense to me. Now I'm wishing I had made this thread self-moderated.

Please check out whattomine and plug in your numbers to see what you'd earn.

Thank you for uselessly repeating what has already been said by two other people in this thread.

Here is the thing.  You don't want to go off of just "amp pull".  You want to look at profit and how you want to leverage it.

The other thing is, profit per amp is important, because once you get bit by the mining bug, you may want to buy another.

Right now, I'm looking for a garage heater that earns a bit of Bitcoin to offset it's costs a bit. If it does a good job of keeping the garage above o degrees celsius throughout the winter, then I'll probably become more interested in helping friends and family do the same than in taking up mining for myself at any scale.  Mining for any significant profit is an arms race that has never interested me, and most of the time it seems like I can get a better return purchasing bitcoin than purchasing mining equipment.

You may be right, I might change my mind once I get started, but for now I can only plan based on what I know about myself.

So take watt / volt (240) = amps.

Thanks, I'm already aware of the relationship between amps, watts, and volts (as well as the many other units of power, work, energy, potential, current, resistance, etc).

My most protifable miner right now is mid pack on the amp pull, so I actually bought another one last week.

At the moment, I think I'm probably more interested in the most effective heater. However, there are a few other variables to consider...
If two different pieces of equipment each emit roughly the same amount of heat and one of them costs significantly more to purchase (or to run), then the cheaper one is preferred.
It two different pieces of  equipment each emit roughly the same amount of heat and one generates significantly more revenue, then the higher revenue is preferred.

Obviously those variable play against each other quite a bit.  It's likely that I'll find that one unit costs more to purchase but ALSO generates more revenue.  What I'm trying to figure out is how to balance those competing incentives.

You will find your house to be amp constrained really really fast.

Just to heat the unheated spaces?  I doubt it.

just raise the garage door and put a box fan behind it.  I live in Texas, the garage is 99 degrees so I flush out the heat (but I am moving to immersion cooling).

None of that sounds appealing to me.

If it gets "too hot" then just unplug it for a few months and come back!

Yep, it will probably remain unplugged from March through October.  It's possible I might decide to leave it running until mid-May.

The main problem with any calculation is it will be wrong tomorrow.

The result of the calculation is constantly changing, but the formula should be consistent.  If I can get the formula correct, then I can write some software to gather the inputs and text me when the result crosses a threshold. That way I'll know when to run it and when not to.  However, now that I've come to the realization that I'll still want to run it even when it isn't profitable (since what I'm really looking for is a heated that simply offsets its operating costs a bit), the calculation that I initially asked about is no longer so important.  Far more important is getting enough heat for a reasonable initial purchase price, and maximizing the revenue for a given amount of heat.

The price varies every day and the difficulty varies every 2 weeks.

I'm well aware of how often the bitcoin exchange rate and the difficulty change. Initially, I thought I wanted to take that into consideration, but I now realize that neither of those really matter for this purpose.

The biggest winners this year are those mining last year with new equipment back then, that didn't switch off and sell their hardware due to such calculations.

I'm not looking to "win" any contest.  I just want to heat my garage, but I'd like my space heater to earn as much bitcoin as it can.

The main point would be to not pay ridiculous high prices for miners,

This is what I have no experience with.  I'm moving into this process slowly and carefully to try to avoid overpaying and avoid getting scammed.

[philipma1957]

As I said pm me for info. Basically you want a cheap used miner like an s9 .

you want it to run on firmware that allows it to be fairly quiet .


You want a decent price..

You do not need to know anything but what viabtc pays per th.

they pay 30.52 cents so a s9 set to 10 th earns $3.05 a day

https://www.viabtc.com/ will show you what it pays per th once you open an account

so $3.05 earned and burns about 20kwatts or $2.00 if you have 10 cent power

and about $3.00 if you have 15 cent power.

So a s9 at 300 bucks if you have 10 cent power is an okay deal

an s9 at 250 bucks if you have 15 cent power kind of works.

If your power is over 15 cents  an s9 is not a good choice.

If your power is over 20 cents an s9 is a poor choice.

Good luck in what you pick.