Do you think this is the last four year cycle?

[Husires]

The decrease in the quantity supplied was one of the factors that lead to the continuous rise in the price of Bitcoin and it is expressed in what is known as the Bitcoin four-year cycle chart.

Do you think from this point forward price will not correlate with the halving?
I mean that the effect of the "halving pump" is over and has not become as effective as it was in the past as the price will not be associated with a significant increase after a year from the last rise.

There is still more than 100 years of mining to reach all the total coins and therefore it must be broken within a few years or become of little impact, especially with many coins in circulation and few of them to be mined.

[davis196]

We will have to wait for the next halving,in order to verify whether or not the halving pump still works.
If you ask me,there will always be a Bitcoin halving pump or a halving hype.The traders and investors are usually expecting the Bitcoin price to increase after a halving,so they are buying more BTC before the halving,which means the Bitcoin price will increase after the halving.This looks more like a self-fulfilling prophecy.
I don't think that there's a direct connection between the lower block reward and the higher Bitcoin price.

[pooya87]

Do you think from this point forward price will not correlate with the halving?

No, this will never happen. The only thing that will change is the degree of this correlation.

Let me just clarify that I believe there are two kind of correlations here. One is the hype that lasts about 1 or 2 months during the halving itself and another is the long term rise that comes after the actual halving and lasts a couple of months to a year. The rest (the 4 year cycle) is all about adoption and nothing else.
The hype itself (the short one) will eventually stop and we may not see any small bubbles that burst during those months. But the long term effect will always be there since the newly generated supply will be 50% less after the halving but at the same time the total supply that is being created is decreasing (it was 7200/day at first then 3600 > 1800 and now 900 BTC/day) so at some point 50% less won't make a difference like after a couple of halvings when 7 BTC/day turns into 3.5 BTC/day!

The longer term rises (the 4 year cycle) as I said is not about the halving but it is all about adoption. If we continue seeing bitcoin's adoption growth like the past decade the price rise will also be the same if not bigger and faster.

[zanezane]

It's not, the four year cycle is permanent in my opinion. Halving has proven time and time again that it's always followed by a pump so I don't think that we will see a four year cycle ending. Plus it cuts the supply in half and the lower the supply combined with higher demand will always result in higher prices.

[crwth]

I think if we have this in mind moving forward, it would entirely depend on a couple of things

• Demand towards BTC
• How many miners would sell their stack
• Supply that people are willing to let go

If there are many people HODL-ing and many people have decided to HODL only, then there would be less supply, and it's going to be a matter of time when you are going to make this a point of change. More people want BTC or Not.

I would always want to have more price action towards BTC as it would rise so much. The most significant effect is where people are more involved, and more people are buying cryptocurrencies. Having the majority of coins in mind, it will have a higher rise in price since there is less left to be purchased or minted. 

All of this is always speculation.

[Wexnident]

No, I actually think the same thing would happen in the next cycle, proof of it was the recent cycle we had. The one fueling the pumps in each cycle would probably the increase in adoption at every cycle imo. It's like an accumulation of the effects of adoption, one that is quite steady and constant. The 2018 one was a different one with it being a bubble, but the chances of it happening again are low imo since people who would start investing in Bitcoin again would know what happened in 2018 already. Ofc, this speculation relies on the adoption of Bitcoin in the future.

[aoluain]

Interesting thread and interesting posts.

I came to this thread thinking about some commentators on Twitter who were saying over the last
few months that the 4 year cycle will change and starting with this current cycle.

I guess what they mean or what I'm taking by that is there wont be a 2 year bear phase after the bull
phase directly after the halving. This also ties in with what has been posted above, supply, demand,
adoption is changing.

We have seen in the past and currently the phases in the four year cycle

The Halving
The bull phase
The bear phase
The anticipation phase ahead of the next halving.

[mk4]

What I think, is that people shouldn't really strictly follow the S2F chart. In the first place, it's just a model, not something that we should literally follow 1:1. It can break up and down, as we have seen in the past, but the point is that in the end bitcoin's price still follows the trend. Because in the first place— fud, regulations, and news in general obviously can't be factored in a price:supply model.

But to answer your question, I don't think it's the last 4 year cycle. But I wouldn't be surprised if it was. No one can predict price movements as per usual anyway.

[hatshepsut93]

The previous cycle was the last one in a sense that there won't be any x100 price increase between the bottom of the last cycle and the top of the next cycle. It's easy to have such growth when marketcap goes from millions of dollars to billions, but we're now in trillion territory. Bitcoin would need to touch $350-400k range before the next halvening for the pattern to remain intact, and I don't see it happening.

[slaman29]

I think there will always be a halving correlation but there will be changes, as I even said a few times before in old threads.

Firstly, the years will get longer.
Secondly, the drasticness will reduce (no more 90% drops and no more 20x rallies).
And no more mining spikes up and down also I think.

[rhodelmabanal]

The decrease in the quantity supplied was one of the factors that lead to the continuous rise in the price of Bitcoin and it is expressed in what is known as the Bitcoin four-year cycle chart.

Do you think from this point forward price will not correlate with the halving?
I mean that the effect of the "halving pump" is over and has not become as effective as it was in the past as the price will not be associated with a significant increase after a year from the last rise.

There is still more than 100 years of mining to reach all the total coins and therefore it must be broken within a few years or become of little impact, especially with many coins in circulation and few of them to be mined.

Based on the Bitcoin standing and in some good news that we always hear, I think the four years cycle will continue. However everything still depend on the upcoming news and in upcoming updated about the development of crypto in the near future, everything may change so we always need to invest an amount that we can afford to loss.

[Hippocrypto]

There's still a possible 5th cycle that's going to exist this year which also projected as wave 5 of market trend.
We seem to noticed several attempts that btc market will go beyond $50k but it's not yet happening, because of that scenario. When it comes at worst stage, the price might go down again then halving stage would be able to take place one day.
Increase will be triggered once the demand also increase consistently.

[GreatArkansas]

This cycle is always possible. But we have a lot of things to consider, especially the fractals.
Another thing that is correlated with this cycle is the stock-to-flow (S2F) model which is kinda showing a similarity with this cycle, repeating the history.
This chart also showing that we should see $100,000 at the end of this year, the same as Stock-to-flow (S2F) model. $100,000 is still on my target this year and next year, but we should not be so positive about it, we still can't guarantee it.

[STT]

The latest rise was more to do with the Dollar dilution then halvening, we would have taken a bit longer to have risen this much maybe an extra year to accumulate enough involvement and volume.   I do remember saying each halvening matters less then the last, its effect is far less dramatic each iteration and despite this latest giant rise I think thats still the case in percentage influence.  It doesnt mean we slow down because demand might rise and supply of the dollar as we've seen could become excessive in helping BTC remain bullish.

[Kyraishi]

I personally do not think so.

I think that bitcoin has a long term future ahead of us and this is just the start. In fact, only around 10-20% of the advanced world has adopted bitcoin/cryptos in general.

Still a great deal of room for upward growth and the scarcity of bitcoin is not dictated by anything other than the 4 year halving cycles. 2024-25 should still be a good year for crypto overall.

[decodx]

I am certain that there will be another 4-year cycle. How? Well, because we're right in it. The current price is around 50k and it's been over a year since the last halving.
Your chart ends in 2019.

[Dave1]

Do you think from this point forward price will not correlate with the halving?
I mean that the effect of the "halving pump" is over and has not become as effective as it was in the past as the price will not be associated with a significant increase after a year from the last rise.

Could be, but bitcoin market is fairly young so we can't really correlate any data to say that the "halving pump" will be over.

Personally, I think we will have two super cycles of bull run as oppose to one four year cycle.

Market is evolving and so is the pattern.

[pooya87]

I came to this thread thinking about some commentators on Twitter who were saying over the last
few months that the 4 year cycle will change and starting with this current cycle.

The thing about a 4-year cycle is that it is "4 years" and this current cycled didn't start yesterday, it started 3.5 years ago. And when the first 3 years are the same ([2018]the 1 year bear market as the big bubble bursts [2019] the smaller drops and accumulation phase [2020] positive signs and small rises [2021] big rise and finally the bubble at $500k) they can't claim that the "cycle will change this time"!
In other words the 80% of the cycle hasn't changed so far and the remaining 20% doesn't have any reason to change either.

To be clear I'm not saying it is impossible for the cycle to break but saying that we have no signs of any sort of change.

[boyptc]

The expected pump after the halving should be by the end of this year. I think if we're still going to correlate that, there's more to happen by the end of this year.

But it could be that the halving effect started also end of last year but that's quite early and then the correction that we've seen early this year, that could also be the bear that's expected to come every after ATH. Although, it just too quick.

[LogitechMouse]

The price of Bitcoin is heavily dictated by the sentiments of the investors themselves.
The Stock-to-flow model is just a model itself but investor see it as a basis into when they will invest.
The 4 year cycle of Bitcoin is just another cycle but for the investors, it is a perfect time for them to buy after the halving causing the price to rise.

I also think that this "cycle" that they are saying will stay as long as the investors are thinking the same. I don't think that this will be the last and there will be more in the future as long as investors see it as a perfect time to buy, they will buy causing it to rise.