I have become cautious on the market

[bbc.reporter]

I have become more cautious on the market from speculating that it might pump similar to the pump of December of 2020. My reasons for this are China Evergrande and the speculated connection of Tether’s holding of Chinese companies commercial paper. Tether’s lawyer denies this, however, we cannot trust his word until we can verify this.

Also, bitcoin is moving higher after the dump, however, open interest is not increasing and funding rate is negative. This implies traders are short selling.

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[Torque]

This implies traders are short selling.

In order to create large long positions...

[bbc.reporter]

@Torque. You might be correct, however, it is much more advisable to be cautious, I reckon. The Federal Reserve has also announced that tapering might begin on November and rate hikes are speculated to begin next year.



Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank could begin scaling back asset purchases as soon as November and complete the process by mid-2022, after officials revealed a growing inclination to raise interest rates next year.

Powell, explaining the US central bank’s first steps toward withdrawing emergency pandemic support for the economy, told reporters Wednesday that tapering “could come as soon as the next meeting.”

Source https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/fed-s-powell-says-taper-could-start-in-november-finish-in-mid-2022-121092300065_1.html


This will remove liqudity from the American market which might cause institutional funds to sell first because it is very much harder for them to move billions of money. I am afraid that this might cause fear and also affect the cryptospace market.

[Poker Player]

Really? I haven't.

This implies traders are short selling.

Since I invest for the long term, I care little about what traders do. I always prefer to see the price go up, but I know that's impossible. I buy regularly and I don't worry about what the price will do next month, I worry about where it will be in 4 and 8 years. Not just the price, but how the popularization and adoption of Bitcoin will have affected our society and our day to day lives.

[mk4]

That company doesn't have any connection with cryptocurrency market so I don't see why it could cause a bad movement in the market, plus it's likely that bitcoin will still pump in December, just hodl.

Not because there isn't any direct connection doesn't automatically mean that it can't have an effect in other markets. Evergrande has some connection to US markets(BlackRock, etc), and the US markets has some connection to the cryptocurrency markets.

[el kaka22]

<snip>

This will remove liqudity from the American market which might cause institutional funds to sell first because it is very much harder for them to move billions of money. I am afraid that this might cause fear and also affect the cryptospace market.

I wouldn't assume that it would create a panic right away. I am not saying it won't neither, but we should not come to assumptions of panic without having any proof in our hands. There could be panic, or there could be people who take advantage of this situation as well. Pandemic relief did helped many companies and without that we are looking at companies trying to handle all by themselves like economy is back on track.

However, we all know that it is not 100% fine right now, there are still some problems lingering, people are not spending as much as they did 2 years ago in most nations and we do still need unemployment checks for larger amount of people all around the world (no idea how it is in USA). All of which means that crypto is still safe haven, if you go into fiat then you might get screwed but in crypto the prices could be great and help you store your wealth.

[michellee]

More caution will be necessary when you want to enter the market because our prediction can not always work. You need to calm down for a while and not trying to enter the market before you are sure that the situation is good. I think those traders are still trying to make a profit in the situation to do many things to make money. The situation can change, but we must try to profit and not give up because of the situation.

[leea-1334]

I have become more cautious on the market from speculating that it might pump similar to the pump of December of 2020. My reasons for this are China Evergrande and the speculated connection of Tether’s holding of Chinese companies commercial paper. Tether’s lawyer denies this, however, we cannot trust his word until we can verify this.

Denial has become the operating word for this company though,,, so we should not be surprised they are reacting like this.

I think the market happened the way it did not directly because of this however,,, just manipulations as per expected, and as we can see it did not crash so badly and is already on the way towards recovery.

Caution is the wisest. Stay safe and do not panic.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Nothing has changed, we are still going to north of $100,000 this year. Q4 in a bull year is usually explosive, sit back & enjoy the show. Sell some in November & December though.

[$crypto$]

Nothing has changed, we are still going to north of $100,000 this year. Q4 in a bull year is usually explosive, sit back & enjoy the show. Sell some in November & December though.

Quite optimistic and holding on to the end of the year I hope this plan goes smoothly at the expected price.

Won't be daunted by other news I'll just focus my eyes on the future to see it as you said $100,000 is a fair price in Q4, so I'm going to take it easy.

If you see the market continues, the sense of misgiving will continue to exist.

[adaseb]

Tether already said last week that they hold no commercial paper from Evergrande.
If they did hold some paper they would either keep quiet or disclose it. However I am pretty sure they don’t hold any. And even if they did, it will be a small portion and not like 25% of their reserves.

Same with what the Fed reserve said. Most of the US companies don’t have that much direct exposure to Evergrande even if they did default. So most likely it won’t affect Bitcoin or USA stock market. I think people just watch too much “the big short” and think that another crisis will happen over this.

[palle11]

That company doesn't have any connection with cryptocurrency market so I don't see why it could cause a bad movement in the market, plus it's likely that bitcoin will still pump in December, just hodl.

The pump of 2017 around the last three months to the end of the year may be repeated from the way price moves and especially that countries coming to adopt bitcoin and create digital currency. I see traders having the sentiment and emotion of thinking there may be bear but definitely things have changed and we may not see that. As a result of fud for the December, they want to sell out there hodling to tether, though not a bad idea .

[GreatArkansas]

Another Tether FUD.
Ok, for all these past years, Tether FUD is always around. Especially about the rumours of bear run around 2018, when Bitcoin made a peak around $19,000 - $20,000. A lot of people also told that it was Tether.
So I am expected this kind of FUD too now. Tether. So it could be true or not, Tether doesn't release any announcement about this. So, for me, this is still another FUD.

[Rajamuda]

Nothing has changed, we are still going to north of $100,000 this year. Q4 in a bull year is usually explosive, sit back & enjoy the show. Sell some in November & December though.

I've like-minded with you, which's clear long-term is the best solution to deal with market conditions from time to time, it will still provide a sweet opportunity.
Basically being cautious is necessary, in this case... it can certainly encourage us to choose the right coin to pick, it is not worth choosing a coin (such as some altcoins) if it can't show its best side.

[STT]

That company doesn't have any connection with cryptocurrency market so I don't see why it could cause a bad movement in the market, plus it's likely that bitcoin will still pump in December, just hodl.

Everything is connected but generally anything outside of BTC isnt a real reason to sell a base holding .   In a trading sense we can easily see a lower price register on BTC because of purely outside factors.   Reason being half the price quoted most often is dollar related.    I think this is a China deflationary event but also the wider picture is China is reining in its capitalist economy elements which would be a significant alteration of advances made in the last couple of decades even back to the gains post Mao.
  We could describe this as the ultimate failure inherent in communist dictatorship but also I'd say it relates to Nixon shock in that the free trade Nixon opened with China came at the same time as a purposeful policy change to dilute value of the dollar given in exchange for that free trade, I think its partly in reaction to endless inflation that China has not found capitalism as useful as it should mostly because its in part missing from the modern world thanks to central banking inflationary policy.   Larger things are in play and sure I think they matter because it relates to volatility.

[adaseb]

Reason for the tether fud is that guy on Twitter who keeps posting conspiracy theories regarding tether. He has a large following and most believe his facts and his theories keep spreading and creating all this fud. I heard that he even was sued in the past because of this.

He most likely started this Evergrande commercial paper theory and another fud of tether fud started first on Twitter, then Reddit and now this forum. Tether fud has been going on for years and not going away anytime soon.

[bryant.coleman]

This is the first time that I am hearing about Tether holding commercial paper from Evergrande. If it is even remotely true, then we can expect a meltdown sometime soon in the cryptocurrency market. I have always had my suspicion about the Tether foundation. Despite miting $70 billion worth of tokens, they have never conducted an independent audit. Even for the asset breakdown, they have provided only some vague figures rather than detailed list of the assets they hold as reserves. If the OP is right, then we are in for something really bad. 

[aoluain]

Nothing has changed, we are still going to north of $100,000 this year. Q4 in a bull year is usually explosive, sit back & enjoy the show. Sell some in November & December though.

Yup last quarter is where the action will be and September has rarely been a good
month for the Bitcoin markets.

When Evergrande first came into the news a few days ago I knew the Crypto markets
would be affected, its too big not to and the markets are intertwined with traditional ones anyway.

This Evergrande saga has not gone away though so expect more news.

There are certainly people on YT with a lot of followers and a good bit of infleuence
who can create FUD at these times and unfortunately there will be innocent people
to take advantage of.

Why would Tether hold the Evergrande Commercial paper?
What is a commercial paper anyway?

[wajik-tempe]

Another Tether FUD.
Ok, for all these past years, Tether FUD is always around. Especially about the rumours of bear run around 2018, when Bitcoin made a peak around $19,000 - $20,000. A lot of people also told that it was Tether.
So I am expected this kind of FUD too now. Tether. So it could be true or not, Tether doesn't release any announcement about this. So, for me, this is still another FUD.

Not releasing any statement after the FUD spreading does this means tether is also involved about previous dump 
Q3-Q4 is always thrilling times for crypto market, it repeated every year. We also have to be careful what will happen next because it's impossible for the price to keep increasing more over we already touch the all time high this year. Maybe the whales are reloading their ammo for the next war 

[pooya87]

Also, bitcoin is moving higher after the dump,

When the price is artificially changed it becomes unstable, whether it is a pump or a dump. In this case when the drop was only because of panic sellers who have no brain to think the price comes back up when they are done selling since the demand doesn't go away just because a few are panicking.

Other than that because of the large amount of FUD on the internet these days I don't see any major upward movement coming for now.