CHINA Banning bitcoin: PBOC Says All Crypto-Related Transactions Are Illegal

[Kittygalore]

The impression this move from China gave to me is, Bitcoin has only become MORE valuable in China, and that the people under that tyrannical State has come to need Bitcoin MORE than they did BEFORE the ban.

I could say the same although tyrannical seem a bit off, if they're tyrannical then they're cruel to their own people but the only problem is that they're almost close to that since they still have concentration camps and they enforce heavy surveillance. That is also my indicator to accumulate more bitcoin because I know that when China gets into something like this, the market will eventually go up.

[1714564030]

1714564030

[1714564030]

1714564030

[1714564030]

1714564030

[1714564030]

1714564030

[Wind_FURY]

The impression this move from China gave to me is, Bitcoin has only become MORE valuable in China, and that the people under that tyrannical State has come to need Bitcoin MORE than they did BEFORE the ban.

I could say the same although tyrannical seem a bit off, if they're tyrannical then they're cruel to their own people but the only problem is that they're almost close to that since they still have concentration camps and they enforce heavy surveillance. That is also my indicator to accumulate more bitcoin because I know that when China gets into something like this, the market will eventually go up.

“Tyrannical” does NOT automatically mean “Cruel”, tyrranical simply means dictatorial, which is truly what the system the Chinese people is under.

Plus the “value” of Bitcoin in China is not only in financial terms, but in protecting an individual’s freedom/human rights.

[Stunzz]

Is this ban on bitcoin totally or the people can still trade their bitcoin normally because China has been banning some parts of bitcoin but it doesn't ban bitcoin entirely. I thought that they were out of the game after all this time but they're still trying to make waves.

However I don't think it all matters anymore because at exact 4 years ago, China's crypto crackdown sent bitcoin down 30%. In fact, I think now that China are finally pulling the plug and no longer able to "ban it again" is one of the awesome news I've ever heard.

[Tybi]

Is this ban on bitcoin totally or the people can still trade their bitcoin normally because China has been banning some parts of bitcoin but it doesn't ban bitcoin entirely. I thought that they were out of the game after all this time but they're still trying to make waves.

However I don't think it all matters anymore because at exact 4 years ago, China's crypto crackdown sent bitcoin down 30%. In fact, I think now that China are finally pulling the plug and no longer able to "ban it again" is one of the awesome news I've ever heard.

The Chinese government declared 2017 Bitcoin illegal and banned cryptocurrency trading and use. That year, the Chinese government banned the exchange and expelled it from the country. But it's a matter of laughter A few months later, the Chinese government again recognized Bitcoin.

[Lucius]

• This is going to be an historic error for China, as it was banning bitcoin mining

Today I read that the situation in China in terms of electricity is quite bad and that the north of the country is particularly affected, and there are big problems in as many as 17 provinces across the country. The problem is that the price of coal has doubled since last year, and the Chinese authorities have frozen prices for households, which is why more and more companies are getting into big trouble. On the other hand, the south is affected by high heat and lack of rain, which has significantly reduced hydropower production.

It seems that the Chinese could not support crypto mining even if they wanted to, because as far as I could understand the situation was so bad that China asked Russia for help.

https://thediplomat.com/2021/09/coal-shortages-force-blackouts-across-china/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/09/30/china-asks-russia-boost-electricity-amid-widespread-blackouts/

[JayJuanGee]

• This is going to be an historic error for China, as it was banning bitcoin mining

Today I read that the situation in China in terms of electricity is quite bad and that the north of the country is particularly affected, and there are big problems in as many as 17 provinces across the country. The problem is that the price of coal has doubled since last year, and the Chinese authorities have frozen prices for households, which is why more and more companies are getting into big trouble. On the other hand, the south is affected by high heat and lack of rain, which has significantly reduced hydropower production.

It seems that the Chinese could not support crypto mining even if they wanted to, because as far as I could understand the situation was so bad that China asked Russia for help.

https://thediplomat.com/2021/09/coal-shortages-force-blackouts-across-china/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/09/30/china-asks-russia-boost-electricity-amid-widespread-blackouts/

"It seems that the Chinese could not support crypto mining even if they wanted to, because as far as I could understand the situation was so bad that China asked Russia for help."

Do you really believe this above statement?

Just from my superficial understanding of bitcoin mining, it could provide incentives to smoothen out extremes and even contribute towards providing incentives for the harnessing of energy in remote places that could also end up subsidizing energy production in less remote places.  

In other words, I doubt that an automatic dismissal of bitcoin as being a positive force would be a proper conclusion.. but maybe you (or someone else) could explain why bitcoin would be a negative force in regards to energy production and consumption in an area in which energy problems exist?  By the way, I am suggesting to look at both production and consumption incentives rather than merely seeming to look at the consumption side and presuming production incentives to be constant... otherwise you appear to be spouting out superficial mainstream talking points about energy consumption being bad and presuming bitcoin also to be a bad consumptive thing and with little to no actual utility (or positive societal contribution).

[XCANA]

This is not new to us again since the ban at this time has no serious effect on Bitcoin and crypto currency at large which simply mean that China is loosing it influence on Bitcoin as it use to be in the past. Though we understand that China cannot support Bitcoin or crypto currency mining since they are currently having power problem in the country but that alone should not be the main why they should ban all crypto currency activities in the country.

[timerland]

My thoughts on this are as follows:

- It was already clear that China was not pro-bitcoin, and as such this was more of an re-iteration of ideas rather than a new ban.
- It has been done multiple times before without avail.
- The decentralization of the network means that bitcoin will survive this regardless of whether other countries follow suit.

Nothing to worry about.

[Lucius]

"It seems that the Chinese could not support crypto mining even if they wanted to, because as far as I could understand the situation was so bad that China asked Russia for help."

Do you really believe this above statement?

Unless everything we read in recent days is just a simple lie, the Chinese really have big problems with electricity supply, entire provinces are dark and power cuts will take at least 5-6 months. I wrote very clearly that the reason is a drastic increase in the price of coal (over 100%) and a reduction in production from hydro sources - if there is not enough energy for households and much-needed industry, it is no wonder that the Chinese first get rid of what really consumes a lot of energy, and on the other hand it is quite the opposite of their political ideology.

There is no need to link the “Bitcoin is bad for the environment” theory to what is currently happening in China, nor is the problem of crypto mining something that was decided 2 weeks ago. Crypto mining has only become a collateral victim of what was first (at least as far as I know) mentioned in 2011.

The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said on Monday it was seeking public opinions on a revised list of industries it wants to encourage, restrict or eliminate. The list was first published in 2011.
The draft for a revised list added cryptocurrency mining, including that of bitcoin, to more than 450 activities the NDRC said should be phased out as they did not adhere to relevant laws and regulations, were unsafe, wasted resources or polluted the environment.

The concept of decentralized currency in a communist country was negatively marked 10 years ago, and it doesn't matter what the real reasons are, because communism is the complete opposite of what Bitcoin represents. Therefore, it was not a question of whether China would completely ban everything related to cryptocurrencies, but only a question of when it would do so.

[Wind_FURY]

• This is going to be an historic error for China, as it was banning bitcoin mining

Today I read that the situation in China in terms of electricity is quite bad and that the north of the country is particularly affected, and there are big problems in as many as 17 provinces across the country. The problem is that the price of coal has doubled since last year, and the Chinese authorities have frozen prices for households, which is why more and more companies are getting into big trouble. On the other hand, the south is affected by high heat and lack of rain, which has significantly reduced hydropower production.

It seems that the Chinese could not support crypto mining even if they wanted to, because as far as I could understand the situation was so bad that China asked Russia for help.

https://thediplomat.com/2021/09/coal-shortages-force-blackouts-across-china/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/09/30/china-asks-russia-boost-electricity-amid-widespread-blackouts/

Isn’t the “shortage” of coal in China self-inflicted? I believe they ordered to stop importing coal from some countries, but most of their supply are coming from Australia. It’s a political move, because China doesn’t want Australia to interfere in their claim of Taiwan and the regions in the South China Sea.

[fillippone]

• This is going to be an historic error for China, as it was banning bitcoin mining

Today I read that the situation in China in terms of electricity is quite bad and that the north of the country is particularly affected, and there are big problems in as many as 17 provinces across the country. The problem is that the price of coal has doubled since last year, and the Chinese authorities have frozen prices for households, which is why more and more companies are getting into big trouble. On the other hand, the south is affected by high heat and lack of rain, which has significantly reduced hydropower production.

It seems that the Chinese could not support crypto mining even if they wanted to, because as far as I could understand the situation was so bad that China asked Russia for help.

https://thediplomat.com/2021/09/coal-shortages-force-blackouts-across-china/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/09/30/china-asks-russia-boost-electricity-amid-widespread-blackouts/

Isn’t the “shortage” of coal in China self-inflicted? I believe they ordered to stop importing coal from some countries, but most of their supply are coming from Australia. It’s a political move, because China doesn’t want Australia to interfere in their claim of Taiwan and the regions in the South China Sea.

A lot of displacements in the energy markets are "self-imposed":

• Coal shortages in China are self-imposed retaliation against a nasty neighbor.
• Gas shortage in Europe are a self-imposed choke as we chose to rely on the Russian friends to heat our houses
• Gas importance in Europe is a self-imposed choice because we self-imposed a ban on nuclear energy
• Cap and trade scheme are self-imposed costs on top of energy costs hindering enterprise competitivity

The common root of this is: Politics interfering with free markets.

[stompix]

"It seems that the Chinese could not support crypto mining even if they wanted to, because as far as I could understand the situation was so bad that China asked Russia for help."

Do you really believe this above statement?

Yes it, is quite true.

Just from my superficial understanding of bitcoin mining, it could provide incentives to smoothen out extremes and even contribute towards providing incentives for the harnessing of energy in remote places that could also end up subsidizing energy production in less remote places.  

No, unfortunately, it's not working like that.
Balancing productions means you're taking 1 apple from the 4 apple pile and put it in the two apple pile. Bitcoin mining looks at the price per apple and eats two out of that pile if they are the cheapest, then it moves to the next two that are next by price.
There is no balancing when you're consuming a lot of the resources based on price.

If miners would only do this they would only mine during sunny and windy days but nobody is going to do so, what was happening in Sichuan was an exception, they built thousands of micro dams for one purpose and then they realized they could have just built the dam, not the powerplant, so they were left in the rainy season with a lot of extra power, the extra power that was gone when the rain stopped and miners would go back to good old Xinjiang and rely on coal. You can see that there was no balance, when energy was abundant bitcoin mining consumed the extra, when the rain stopped and there was no extra bitcoin mining still consumed, again, the cheapest.

By the way, I am suggesting to look at both production and consumption incentives rather than merely seeming to look at the consumption side and presuming production incentives to be constant... otherwise you appear to be spouting out superficial mainstream talking points about energy consumption being bad and presuming bitcoin also to be a bad consumptive thing and with little to no actual utility (or positive societal contribution).

One coal plant owner says that his energy is cheap is reliable, it runs 24/7 and it doesn't need subsidies from the government, while the sun is unreliable, panels are also polluting and it's costlier. The sun farm owner says that coal is polluting, coal will eventually run out, that solar panels don't pollute the atmosphere and that the technology will get better and cheaper. Should I throw about views from nuclear or hydro? Everyone is right in what they are saying, there is no perfect truth and no perfect good.

There are bad facts about mining, nobody can deny it, there are positives also, but the most important thing is that one should never equal bitcoin with bitcoin mining, Bitcoin is about decentralization, abut being your own bank, about a lot of things, bitcoin mining is a business. Nothing else! It's a mean business like everything else, and just like exchanges, wallets providers and everyone else involved in it draws its revenue from the bitcoin price, it has nothing to do with the foundation bitcoin was built on.

Musk and the others are businessmen, they tell people what they think from their own perspective and their own interest. Do you think bitcoin miners are angels? No f way*! For example, the so-called Bitcoin Mining Council was telling us how they will mine with green energy and so, what was Marathon doing? Well, investing millions in expanding a coal powerplant, and the only reason was the price, you can't compete with that, no solar farm will offer you 2 cents power, not even Bukele magic well that produces more than power than the next 5 biggest wells in the world will be able to do so.

And now back to the China thing.
The Chinese did a lot of bad moves, and unfortunately, bitcoin indeed was a victim or a sacrifice.
As you might know from the news, the US is trying to build a new NATO in the pacific, see the Aussie submarine deal for example, and China is not liking this, of course, so they did start banning and putting taxes on Australian goods and on coal, And then the shitshow started.

A coal mining accident (the one that wiped 30% of the hashrate in April), an immediate coal production cut, overestimating how much coal they can produce on their own, overestimating how easily they could get coal from other countries, European countries coming out of lockdowns and demand growing everywhere, manufacturing starting at full power and demanding energy and this happening during the rainy season when you have more hydro, so with things looking that black what would you do as a government?

Cut the things that will not trigger an avalanche in other sectors! Bitcoin mining fits it!
Cut the thing that you can't use as a political and economic tool! Bitcoin mining fits the criteria again!

When you're low on energy that you close factories, you start opening pits you've closed for environmental issues, you accord permits to mine for coal on every piece of land, what would you have chosen if you were in their position? Running a government is also a business, just like mining!

Ps, I own a few miners, they run probably on either coal or gas-produced energy, zero to the negative chance of it being green, I don't have nightmares for what I'm doing but I'm not going to lie and say that I'm doing it to protect the network or something like that, just like my parents aren't proudly marching in the street for feeding hundreds of people nor do they have remorse every night for running a pig farm that also involves, you know..killing. If I/we wouldn't do this others would do it, the result will be the same in the end.

Bitcoin is about freedom, bitcoin mining is about money.

[JayJuanGee]

"It seems that the Chinese could not support crypto mining even if they wanted to, because as far as I could understand the situation was so bad that China asked Russia for help."

Do you really believe this above statement?

Yes it, is quite true.

Just from my superficial understanding of bitcoin mining, it could provide incentives to smoothen out extremes and even contribute towards providing incentives for the harnessing of energy in remote places that could also end up subsidizing energy production in less remote places.  

No, unfortunately, it's not working like that.
Balancing productions means you're taking 1 apple from the 4 apple pile and put it in the two apple pile. Bitcoin mining looks at the price per apple and eats two out of that pile if they are the cheapest, then it moves to the next two that are next by price.
There is no balancing when you're consuming a lot of the resources based on price.

If miners would only do this they would only mine during sunny and windy days but nobody is going to do so, what was happening in Sichuan was an exception, they built thousands of micro dams for one purpose and then they realized they could have just built the dam, not the powerplant, so they were left in the rainy season with a lot of extra power, the extra power that was gone when the rain stopped and miners would go back to good old Xinjiang and rely on coal. You can see that there was no balance, when energy was abundant bitcoin mining consumed the extra, when the rain stopped and there was no extra bitcoin mining still consumed, again, the cheapest.

By the way, I am suggesting to look at both production and consumption incentives rather than merely seeming to look at the consumption side and presuming production incentives to be constant... otherwise you appear to be spouting out superficial mainstream talking points about energy consumption being bad and presuming bitcoin also to be a bad consumptive thing and with little to no actual utility (or positive societal contribution).

One coal plant owner says that his energy is cheap is reliable, it runs 24/7 and it doesn't need subsidies from the government, while the sun is unreliable, panels are also polluting and it's costlier. The sun farm owner says that coal is polluting, coal will eventually run out, that solar panels don't pollute the atmosphere and that the technology will get better and cheaper. Should I throw about views from nuclear or hydro? Everyone is right in what they are saying, there is no perfect truth and no perfect good.

There are bad facts about mining, nobody can deny it, there are positives also, but the most important thing is that one should never equal bitcoin with bitcoin mining, Bitcoin is about decentralization, abut being your own bank, about a lot of things, bitcoin mining is a business. Nothing else! It's a mean business like everything else, and just like exchanges, wallets providers and everyone else involved in it draws its revenue from the bitcoin price, it has nothing to do with the foundation bitcoin was built on.

Musk and the others are businessmen, they tell people what they think from their own perspective and their own interest. Do you think bitcoin miners are angels? No f way*! For example, the so-called Bitcoin Mining Council was telling us how they will mine with green energy and so, what was Marathon doing? Well, investing millions in expanding a coal powerplant, and the only reason was the price, you can't compete with that, no solar farm will offer you 2 cents power, not even Bukele magic well that produces more than power than the next 5 biggest wells in the world will be able to do so.

And now back to the China thing.
The Chinese did a lot of bad moves, and unfortunately, bitcoin indeed was a victim or a sacrifice.
As you might know from the news, the US is trying to build a new NATO in the pacific, see the Aussie submarine deal for example, and China is not liking this, of course, so they did start banning and putting taxes on Australian goods and on coal, And then the shitshow started.

A coal mining accident (the one that wiped 30% of the hashrate in April), an immediate coal production cut, overestimating how much coal they can produce on their own, overestimating how easily they could get coal from other countries, European countries coming out of lockdowns and demand growing everywhere, manufacturing starting at full power and demanding energy and this happening during the rainy season when you have more hydro, so with things looking that black what would you do as a government?

Cut the things that will not trigger an avalanche in other sectors! Bitcoin mining fits it!
Cut the thing that you can't use as a political and economic tool! Bitcoin mining fits the criteria again!

When you're low on energy that you close factories, you start opening pits you've closed for environmental issues, you accord permits to mine for coal on every piece of land, what would you have chosen if you were in their position? Running a government is also a business, just like mining!

Ps, I own a few miners, they run probably on either coal or gas-produced energy, zero to the negative chance of it being green, I don't have nightmares for what I'm doing but I'm not going to lie and say that I'm doing it to protect the network or something like that, just like my parents aren't proudly marching in the street for feeding hundreds of people nor do they have remorse every night for running a pig farm that also involves, you know..killing. If I/we wouldn't do this others would do it, the result will be the same in the end.

Bitcoin is about freedom, bitcoin mining is about money.

There are aspects of your post that I agree with including that bitcoin miners are going to mine no matter if the energy costs are high, low, green or not green based on their own calculations, and so part of my point was just to assert that it is likely overall better for the overall energy infrastructure to have bitcoin miners in the mix and incentivizing the consumption of energy - even if they are perceived as consuming all the energy.. blah blah blah bullshit... and sure you seem to be arguing that bitcoin miners are leeches on the energy system... so we disagree about that.

Anyhow, it does seem quite apparent that bitcoin miners are going to attempt to gravitate towards where energy is cheapest - since they tend to be a lot more mobile than many other (probably the vast majority of) energy users.. so sometimes they will end up using various kinds of energy that is otherwise not able to be used by the users.. and having little costs because of having little value, and sure I understand that bitcoin miners are not exclusively using the low cost and inaccessible energy.  Sometimes they are using whatever energy they can because BTC prices are going up or whatever other incentives they might sometimes have to mine as many bitcoin as they can during a certain period of relatively low hashrate, for example. 

I am not going to go through your other various points and examples because they seem to be a mixed bag in which I agree with some aspects and disagree with other aspects, even though I believe that I had already sufficiently and adequately made many of my points in my earlier points, and I stand by those in the sense that I do not believe that your examples are negating nor contrary to my points, even if you seem to be arguing that they are.

[Wind_FURY]

• This is going to be an historic error for China, as it was banning bitcoin mining

Today I read that the situation in China in terms of electricity is quite bad and that the north of the country is particularly affected, and there are big problems in as many as 17 provinces across the country. The problem is that the price of coal has doubled since last year, and the Chinese authorities have frozen prices for households, which is why more and more companies are getting into big trouble. On the other hand, the south is affected by high heat and lack of rain, which has significantly reduced hydropower production.

It seems that the Chinese could not support crypto mining even if they wanted to, because as far as I could understand the situation was so bad that China asked Russia for help.

https://thediplomat.com/2021/09/coal-shortages-force-blackouts-across-china/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/09/30/china-asks-russia-boost-electricity-amid-widespread-blackouts/

Isn’t the “shortage” of coal in China self-inflicted? I believe they ordered to stop importing coal from some countries, but most of their supply are coming from Australia. It’s a political move, because China doesn’t want Australia to interfere in their claim of Taiwan and the regions in the South China Sea.

A lot of displacements in the energy markets are "self-imposed":

• Coal shortages in China are self-imposed retaliation against a nasty neighbor.

OK, then it isn’t about the price of coal “going double” starting since last year, but it’s about political decisions made because of some other political reason. I believe China would not have banned Bitcoin mining if it had not made that political decision. They expected it, and it wasn’t just another “attack on Bitcoin”.

[jaysabi]

People are overlooking the other big piece of news coming out of China now - the collapse of the biggest property company within China that has huge debts. Either one of two things is happening, or possibly a combination of both. Banning bitcoin puts a lot of news out there to distract from this massive company collapse that could ripple through the whole economy and send them into a recession. Secondly, a lot of people within authoritarian regimes are always looking to keep their money out of the hands of the central government that might confiscate it if they fall out of line or they're looking for convenient scapegoats at any time. This is an attempt to stop money fleeing the country in the simplest terms.

China is the most manipulated economy in the world and what happened to Evergrande is just the tip of the iceberg. The Chinese economy managed to attain so much growth in recent times because the investors had no option to go for anything other than the overpriced assets that were locally available. The average P/E ratios for Chinese stocks stand at 40-50, compared to 10-12 in the other markets. Real estate prices make no sense and a lot people invested in them since they had no other option. I won't be surprised if the Chinese economy undergo a massive correction sometime in the next 1-2 years. The ban on BTC is not going to help.

On the flip side, the ban on btc isn't going to hurt either.  China's economy is so divorced from crypto it doesn't matter at all if it's banned.  Virtually the only thing that matters to hundreds of millions of Chinese is the real estate market.

The vast majority of Chinese wealth is tied into the real estate market (around 75% of wealth is directly tied to the real estate market in China).  Some of this is cultural (single men are expected to own their own home before women will consider them a suitable partner for marriage), some of this is dangerously presumptive (because so much individual wealth is tied into real estate, the belief by the people is the government will never let the market crash), and some of it is dangerous speculation (because the assumption is people believe the government will support real estate prices, people buy multiple properties assuming the prices can never drop or will never be allowed to drop).  

The complex reasons for the current state however put extreme pressure on the government to support the real estate market, creating a self-feeding loop that pushes prices higher and the higher prices convince more people that the investments are safe.  A real estate crash in China would create wide-ranging social unrest in China, and the party knows this.

[Sithara007]

On the flip side, the ban on btc isn't going to hurt either.  China's economy is so divorced from crypto it doesn't matter at all if it's banned.  Virtually the only thing that matters to hundreds of millions of Chinese is the real estate market.

The vast majority of Chinese wealth is tied into the real estate market (around 75% of wealth is directly tied to the real estate market in China).  Some of this is cultural (single men are expected to own their own home before women will consider them a suitable partner for marriage), some of this is dangerously presumptive (because so much individual wealth is tied into real estate, the belief by the people is the government will never let the market crash), and some of it is dangerous speculation (because the assumption is people believe the government will support real estate prices, people buy multiple properties assuming the prices can never drop or will never be allowed to drop).  

The complex reasons for the current state however put extreme pressure on the government to support the real estate market, creating a self-feeding loop that pushes prices higher and the higher prices convince more people that the investments are safe.  A real estate crash in China would create wide-ranging social unrest in China, and the party knows this.

If what you have posted is true, then I am 100% sure that it is not viable in the long term. China is a rapidly ageing society and right now there is a surplus of apartment buildings. The number of vacant buildings will rise further, as the population ageing progresses. During the last 3 decades, some of this ageing used to be neutralized by younger workers from the rural areas migrating to the cities. But now the number of older people retiring and moving back to the rural regions is almost as large as the number of younger people who are moving in the other direction.

I have checked the apartment prices in some of the major cities. Doesn't make any sense. They are as expensive as the apartments in Europe or the US. But the average wages are much below the level of Europe. So the vast majority of those who need them can't afford these apartments. Real estate sector calculated that the wages would grow as fast as they did in the first decade of this millennium, but that never happened. Either the apartment prices need to come down, or the government need to provide subsidies to those who need them.

[jaysabi]

On the flip side, the ban on btc isn't going to hurt either.  China's economy is so divorced from crypto it doesn't matter at all if it's banned.  Virtually the only thing that matters to hundreds of millions of Chinese is the real estate market.

The vast majority of Chinese wealth is tied into the real estate market (around 75% of wealth is directly tied to the real estate market in China).  Some of this is cultural (single men are expected to own their own home before women will consider them a suitable partner for marriage), some of this is dangerously presumptive (because so much individual wealth is tied into real estate, the belief by the people is the government will never let the market crash), and some of it is dangerous speculation (because the assumption is people believe the government will support real estate prices, people buy multiple properties assuming the prices can never drop or will never be allowed to drop).  

The complex reasons for the current state however put extreme pressure on the government to support the real estate market, creating a self-feeding loop that pushes prices higher and the higher prices convince more people that the investments are safe.  A real estate crash in China would create wide-ranging social unrest in China, and the party knows this.

If what you have posted is true, then I am 100% sure that it is not viable in the long term. China is a rapidly ageing society and right now there is a surplus of apartment buildings. The number of vacant buildings will rise further, as the population ageing progresses. During the last 3 decades, some of this ageing used to be neutralized by younger workers from the rural areas migrating to the cities. But now the number of older people retiring and moving back to the rural regions is almost as large as the number of younger people who are moving in the other direction.

I have checked the apartment prices in some of the major cities. Doesn't make any sense. They are as expensive as the apartments in Europe or the US. But the average wages are much below the level of Europe. So the vast majority of those who need them can't afford these apartments. Real estate sector calculated that the wages would grow as fast as they did in the first decade of this millennium, but that never happened. Either the apartment prices need to come down, or the government need to provide subsidies to those who need them.

There are a lot of things westerners have said about China that have not proven to be true.  For example, that the free aspects of the economy would make the country more democratic as the wealth it created caused people greater economic and political freedoms.  This was widely expected to be the case and it hasn't proven out.  So the prediction that their current system is 1) unsustainable and 2) poised to collapse are just a couple more predictions that, like the example I mentioned, seem likely but for which history has warned us against assuming to be true.

The aging population bit though you are absolutely right about.  And the ccp knows this, which is why you've seen new initiatives like the relaxing of the one-child policy to two-child, and then the relaxing of that to three-child, and the urging of raising larger families as a point of national pride and importance.  The government is trying to get people to have more children because the economy, and therefore the party's power, depends on it.

[fillippone]

• This is going to be an historic error for China, as it was banning bitcoin mining

Regarding to this, I found an interesting presentation from Nic Carter.
I am posting a  slide, just to outline how much this decision helped the birth of an industry in Texas:


https://niccarter.info/wp-content/uploads/txsummit_nc_oct08.pdf

On the same presentation there is another slide, forecasting the size of this industry, set to grow another 8x before 2030:


https://www.bitooda.io/public-files/091621%20BitOoda%20Hashrate%20Estimate%20Details.pdf

They literally ditched their leadership in the most promising industry on they last decade.

[Sithara007]

@fillippone, how much is China's market share now? From your charts, I can see that their share of the hash rate dropped from 75%+ in 2019 to <50% by mid-2021. I wonder how much it is now, since a number of large miners shifted their operations from China due to the ongoing bans. Also, it doesn't mean that mining has stopped completely in China. The government is allowing the existing farms to operate under strict terms (although I am not sure for how long they will be allowed to mine coins).

[GubiMixa1292]

When I read about China banning bitcoin mining I thought it was just a China-made FUD news, we were surprised to learn this news is actually true. This time it could be a news. same thing. Of course, this would be a serious mistake for China because China is one of the top BTC holders in the world they can manipulate the market and make huge profits. for your country. For many years, it is because they dominate the market that makes the economy of their country go up, so this is a very wrong decision of China.