US with problems to raise the debt ceiling... again

[bryant.coleman]

GOP handing out welfare benefits? What? The GOP consistently push to cut Medicaid, Medicare, and a variety of social security programs such as SNAP and TANF. Trump's big tax cuts, which contributed to a big chunk of his increased deficit prior to COVID, largely benefited the wealthiest in society - https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/publications/distributional-analysis-conference-agreement-tax-cuts-and-jobs-act/full. The top quintile made a saving of over $7,000 per year, with the lowest quintile making a saving of only $60 per year. How you can say that is catering to blue collar workers I don't know.

Trump claimed that his policies discourage American companies to shift jobs abroad, thereby securing native jobs (especially in the blue-collar sector). I will give you one example. In 2017, Trump forced Ford Automobiles to cancel their plans to open a car manufacturing unit in Mexico, and instead invest that amount in Michigan. And regarding Obamacare, Trump has always argued that it was putting a huge strain on small businesses. In the rust-belt states, even in 2020 Trump performed much better than what opinion polls predicted (especially in states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania).

[Kyraishi]

I don't think that there will be an issue with raising the debt ceiling.

They have demonstrated over and over again that they are willing to do this.

Perhaps it will take a while, but at the end of the day they will want to continue borrowing at astronomical figures at incredibly low rates, and will not let this roadblock push them back.

[Silberman]

If the country fails to meet its borrowing limits within the current period to overcome the financial situation and economic problems, it will be a dangerous event that will have a dangerous impact on the developing world developing economies will also be hit if the US government fails to take action interest rates will rise confidence will decline and economic growth will slow. It will further worsen the economic situation in the united states.

It's a different story for US though, I think they have enough influence to not follow the stuff that most countries abide by when it comes to borrowing stuff. They already have the solution in their country, and that would be taxing the uber rich people and companies in their country.

Correct, the US government has something that no other government has and that is that its fiat currency is the currency used as the reserve currency of the world, this means that they can get away with things that no other government can, they can reach levels of debt that no other country can because if the countries that are holding their currency as a reserve currency try to say anything about it then their reserves can go to dust if the US decides to keep printing more money, however I really think we are reaching a critical point in which it is possible that countries begin to decide to use their reserves, and this could create hyperinflation in the US as we have never seen before as that money finds its way back to the US.

[Sithara007]

Correct, the US government has something that no other government has and that is that its fiat currency is the currency used as the reserve currency of the world, this means that they can get away with things that no other government can, they can reach levels of debt that no other country can because if the countries that are holding their currency as a reserve currency try to say anything about it then their reserves can go to dust if the US decides to keep printing more money, however I really think we are reaching a critical point in which it is possible that countries begin to decide to use their reserves, and this could create hyperinflation in the US as we have never seen before as that money finds its way back to the US.

On top of that, the US Dollar is considered as the most stable fiat currency, and many of the countries that don't have their own currency (El Salvador, Ecuador.etc) use USD as default national currency. And this makes the situation even more interesting. The Federal Reserve can print unlimited amounts of banknotes, thereby increasing the inflation rate and then distribute the surplus funds among US citizens. However, those using USD in other countries will suffer from it, because the purchasing power of their savings will go down.

[o_e_l_e_o]

It is crazy that this happens so often, it seems to be every year or two now.

It is political theater. There is nothing in our Constitution which requires a debt ceiling. Both sides rack up debt when they are in power, but then Republicans threaten to default on that debt (and potentially force millions of people in to poverty) when they are not in power to try to score points against the Democrats. And yet some people still think Republicans are "fiscally responsible".

-snip-

Obviously Trump's very poor overall record on jobs isn't really a fair comparison due to COVID, but even before the pandemic, Trump's record on job was distinctly average when compared to the last 100 years.

On top of that, the US Dollar is considered as the most stable fiat currency

Widely used, maybe. Stable? Not even close. Take a look at the ballooning deficit, debt, debt ceiling, Federal Reserve balance sheet, etc. The most stable fiat currency is probably the Swiss Franc (CHF).

[stompix]

Widely used, maybe. Stable? Not even close. Take a look at the ballooning deficit, debt, debt ceiling, Federal Reserve balance sheet, etc. The most stable fiat currency is probably the Swiss Franc (CHF).

It is not such a big difference, if you compare to some other small currencies from Europe you will see it's nothing special, against the Czech crown it was 1:20 in 2005, it's 1:23 now, even against the euro it was 0.92 5 years ago it's still 0.92 today.
Besides, on long term even against the USD there is nothing major, just a 4% increase, of course with his and downs but for the last decade, the most traded currencies have somewhat kept the same ratio.

If we compare it with currencies from the so-called third world it's pretty damn stable, gaining 2-300% even against countries who are not at war or under sanction or went through a revolution, I think all south American currencies have lost at least 3x compared to the USD in the last ten years.

Deficit, debt, spending, inflation, people would still put more faith in the economy of the US rather than in the Russian economy who has barely 10% debt to GDP ratio but who has a habit of going bankrupt. Romania has 30% ratio, one of the lowest in the EU, and interestingly they have a homeownership of nearly 90%, what would you buy dollars, euros, or Romanian lions?

Obviously Trump's very poor overall record on jobs isn't really a fair comparison due to COVID, but even before the pandemic, Trump's record on job was distinctly average when compared to the last 100 years.

To be honest, considering the amount of Americans that were screaming they will immigrate to Canada if Trump becomes president and how many anticipated another catastrophe and collapse, I must say he did pretty well, he actually managed to raise the employment rates (I never look at unemployment rates as I consider that misleading) a thing Biden will have no way to accomplish, not with millions of immigrants coming into the country, no matter how many trillions he will spend with that stupid bill he will not be able to create 5 million jobs on top of the lost ones and adding the population ratio.

[o_e_l_e_o]

I'm not familiar with this debt ceiling rise, what does it do? It's the first time that I've heard of it. I just assume that probably it's the increase in what they can borrow for loans or that they're debt just increased.

If the US government hit the debt ceiling, then they are not allowed to borrow any more money to fund government expenditure. There are a variety of temporary measures they can enact to free up some more money to continue to pay their expenditures for a short period of time, in the range of a month or two, but once these run out, the government essentially defaults on its debt. It's unclear exactly what would happen here, but it would likely involve huge cuts across the board in everything from healthcare to education, salaries not being paid, millions of jobs losses, and a huge financial crisis. There would also be huge implications around the world if the government of the primary reserve currency in the world effectively said "Uhhh yeah, we can't honor its value anymore."

It is not such a big difference, if you compare to some other small currencies from Europe you will see it's nothing special, against the Czech crown it was 1:20 in 2005, it's 1:23 now, even against the euro it was 0.92 5 years ago it's still 0.92 today.
Besides, on long term even against the USD there is nothing major, just a 4% increase, of course with his and downs but for the last decade, the most traded currencies have somewhat kept the same ratio.

Yes, the difference is not huge, as it won't be with any fiat currency, but it is significant enough over long periods. 20 years ago a US dollar bought around 1.6 Swiss Francs, today it only buys around 0.9. 20 years ago a Euro bought 1.49, today it buys 1.08. You'll see similar (or even worse) ratios with CNY, JPY, GBP, RUB, etc.

Obviously I don't disagree that the USD is far more widespread and widely used, but saying it is the most stable fiat currency is just plain incorrect.

[leea-1334]

China owns 1 Trillion of US debt by the way

Not only China, but Japan and many other countries own a lot of U.S. government bonds, too. The USA is immensely dependent on foreign countries. If at some point these countries decide to stop buying U.S. government bonds, the U.S. will no longer be able to issue any debt at all in this form without its currency collapsing.

Yes, every big country owns a lot of debt from each other, but China is the biggest holder of US treasury bonds and even after already letting go of a lot they still own almost 40% more than the next.

The only reason US debt going higher does not seem like a legitimate concern for economists is because every other country (including China) is also putting up debt every year,,, just not as bad as US, who loves going to war for made up reasons. I will not be surprised one day they go to war with Bitcoin  

[oHnK]

every single time the same, if just a political game, the opposition is against it to put pressure on the party who runs the country, nothing else, nobody really wants a complete shutdown, they use this as a bargain to reach agreements.

I'm far more concerned about that 3.5 trillion bill, which will come with a lot of headaches and will just amplify what's happening, is not enough that the snowball is rolling downhill anyhow on it own, you feel the need to give it a serious push.

I see that the political conditions between these parties are only just playing their roles, no one is really carrying out their responsibilities and authorities.  Due to the fact, every decision between parties is only limited to bargaining for interests.  Because basically, it's not the people who focus on them but their own power.  Debt and policies only become their instruments to strengthen their power in personal and group interests, not in the name of society.

[SquallLeonhart]

Again, the US Government has spent more than expected and now has to borrow more to pay the bills. If this was you, this is the closest to an overdraft on your account that a country gets. The problem is that the limit has to be raised by law, and it is not simple to do so in an age of exacerbated partisanship and little wide-angle vision about the needs of the country.

Incredible as it may seem, the US could actually default in its obligations.

USA could increase the debt ceiling as much as they want and as long as people keep giving USD a lot of value and they do not care about the debt they have, then it will not be a problem for them. If another weak nation did what USA is doing right now then the value of that nation's currency would be destroyed, but when USA does it then it is nothing at all, which is the biggest advantage they have.

If it was a problem and they couldn't do it then they would have avoided it as well, but since they are doing fine then it becomes not a problem for them at all. I personally believe that we should not be shocked if they increase it again in few years and then again and again because nobody does anything to stop them.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

On the bright side, if a shutdown occurs, they can't vote on or pass the infrastructure bill containing crypto regulation (which many disapprove of).

I thought they already voted and passed it.  Did they not?  I'm certainly against that bill, and I contacted my senators about a month ago and voiced my opinion on it.  My state is blue, so I'm not keeping my hopes up if indeed they haven't voted on it yet.

There are a variety of temporary measures they can enact to free up some more money to continue to pay their expenditures for a short period of time, in the range of a month or two, but once these run out, the government essentially defaults on its debt. It's unclear exactly what would happen here, but it would likely involve huge cuts across the board in everything from healthcare to education, salaries not being paid, millions of jobs losses, and a huge financial crisis.

And it's amazing that this would follow all the money printing and stimulus and unemployment benefits--basically the government creating money and giving it away like it was cheap candy.  I have no idea what the morons in the government are going to do, but frankly I'd rather just take the consequences sooner rather than later.  All they've been doing for years is kicking the can down the road, and they can't keep doing that indefinitely.

[Darker45]

And now here is the Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, warning that the government is now about to run out of cash by October 18. That's just a little more than two weeks from now. Even with that bleak possibility, however, the republicans and the democrats have yet to meet halfway about the issue of raising the debt ceiling.^[1]

On the bright side, if a shutdown occurs, they can't vote on or pass the infrastructure bill containing crypto regulation (which many disapprove of).

I thought they already voted and passed it.  Did they not?  I'm certainly against that bill, and I contacted my senators about a month ago and voiced my opinion on it.  My state is blue, so I'm not keeping my hopes up if indeed they haven't voted on it yet.

It seems they haven't yet. The standoff continues and reconciliation is nowhere to be seen in the near future. And now the democrats are resorting to another way of avoiding shutdown. They are now trying to pass the reconciliation bill, which wouldn't require a vote from a single republican for as long as every democrat votes yes to it. However, it seems they are still facing a hard time selling the same to every single democrat in the senate. It appears Senators Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin are opposed to it.^[2][3]

[1] https://edition.cnn.com/2021/09/28/economy/debt-ceiling-deadline-yellen
[2] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/whats-in-reconciliation-bill/
[3] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/government-shutdown-2021-senate-bill-vote/

[Gyfts]

It's probably in the interest of the US just to open up the new credit card and raise the debt ceiling, because the debt burden is never going to be lowered. It's just best to pretend that Americans are stupid enough to believe they can continue spending and somehow never default on their loans. What's even more scary is the 3.5 trillion in additional spending they want to do, absolute madness.

[Sithara007]

On top of that, the US Dollar is considered as the most stable fiat currency

Widely used, maybe. Stable? Not even close. Take a look at the ballooning deficit, debt, debt ceiling, Federal Reserve balance sheet, etc. The most stable fiat currency is probably the Swiss Franc (CHF).

OK.. I would agree. US Dollar is at least the most recognized fiat currency and the one with maximum acceptability. CHF is one of the strongest fiat currencies available (I would rate the Norwegian Krone as another strong fiat currency). But it is hardly used in international trade and rarely features among the forex reserves of various countries. The Swiss government also has made no attempt to widen the usage of CHF. It is surprising, because it is a much stronger currency when compared to USD, EUR, GBP or JPY.

[robattfield]

I quite doubt on this matter whether the US government is in danger of shutting down
And the reality is that there will be concrete solutions and the problem is still becoming very politically tense, going beyond the economic sphere before. It is not uncommon for the beginnings of the US economy to fall into a recession if the debt ceiling is breached.

[o_e_l_e_o]

I thought they already voted and passed it.  Did they not?

It voted and passed the Senate. It's currently being debated in the House. It was supposed to have been voted on earlier this week, but it seems Pelosi keeps pushing it back because she's not sure it will pass.

All they've been doing for years is kicking the can down the road, and they can't keep doing that indefinitely.

And they show no signs of stopping. $3.5 trillion here, another $1 trillion there. The debt isn't just increasing, but the rate of increase is increasing as well. It took the entire history of the US until 1996 to rack up $5 trillion in debt. It then took 13 years until 2009 to add another $5 trillion on top. The last $5 trillion we've added didn't even take 2 years. In the 80s, as a percentage of GDP our debt was 30%. By 2000, 55%. By 2010, 90%. Today, above 130%. How far can we go until people starting losing faith in the USD? For comparison, in 2010 during the Greek debt crisis, their debt-to-GDP ratio was 150%, peaking at 180% a few years later. We are only a few years away from those numbers at this rate.

[leea-1334]

And they show no signs of stopping. $3.5 trillion here, another $1 trillion there. The debt isn't just increasing, but the rate of increase is increasing as well. It took the entire history of the US until 1996 to rack up $5 trillion in debt. It then took 13 years until 2009 to add another $5 trillion on top. The last $5 trillion we've added didn't even take 2 years. In the 80s, as a percentage of GDP our debt was 30%. By 2000, 55%. By 2010, 90%. Today, above 130%. How far can we go until people starting losing faith in the USD? For comparison, in 2010 during the Greek debt crisis, their debt-to-GDP ratio was 150%, peaking at 180% a few years later. We are only a few years away from those numbers at this rate.

To be fair, most countries are also increasing their rate of debt increase. Us in Asia here are also making shocking debt increases, in the last 10 to 20 years almost all of us have doubled our debt,,, and yet I see things are not getting better with inflation and economic crisis getting worse not better. I guess we are all following US financial tactics and it is getting us nowhere.

Luckily we do not have wars to pay for too otherwise I probably will end up homeless.

What happens now if US becomes Greece? Can they save themselves?

[stompix]

What happens now if US becomes Greece? Can they save themselves?

If the US would end like Greece you wouldn't care about them anymore because everyone in this world would be so deep in sh*** a submarine would be crushed. And don't think gold or bitcoin or having a garden would save you, such an economic disaster would drag down instantly both the Eu and China, then the contagion will spread to every last place in this world and even people who come into cities once a year to buy salt and sell fur would be affected.

On the bright side, if a shutdown occurs, they can't vote on or pass the infrastructure bill containing crypto regulation (which many disapprove of).

I thought they already voted and passed it.  Did they not?

It voted and passed the Senate. It's currently being debated in the House. It was supposed to have been voted on earlier this week, but it seems Pelosi keeps pushing it back because she's not sure it will pass.

I'm getting confused with all these damn bills.
Isn't the one with the crypto-related stuff the infrastructure bill, that should be voted prior to this one on social spending, the one with 3.5t? So if this doesn't pass the other has no chance of going through, because if the leftist wing doesn't vote on this one of the courses the moderates will drop that one too?

Seriously sometimes politics in the US are more messed up than in European countries where having 6-10 parties in the parliament is normal.

[Gyfts]

I thought they already voted and passed it.  Did they not?

It voted and passed the Senate. It's currently being debated in the House. It was supposed to have been voted on earlier this week, but it seems Pelosi keeps pushing it back because she's not sure it will pass.

All they've been doing for years is kicking the can down the road, and they can't keep doing that indefinitely.

And they show no signs of stopping. $3.5 trillion here, another $1 trillion there. The debt isn't just increasing, but the rate of increase is increasing as well. It took the entire history of the US until 1996 to rack up $5 trillion in debt. It then took 13 years until 2009 to add another $5 trillion on top. The last $5 trillion we've added didn't even take 2 years. In the 80s, as a percentage of GDP our debt was 30%. By 2000, 55%. By 2010, 90%. Today, above 130%. How far can we go until people starting losing faith in the USD? For comparison, in 2010 during the Greek debt crisis, their debt-to-GDP ratio was 150%, peaking at 180% a few years later. We are only a few years away from those numbers at this rate.

The US federal reserve liabilities chart just shows you where all this economic policy ends up.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm

Taking on more assets than they can chew, unfortunately. All in the so called quantitative easing strategy which they hoped would not produce inflation, except it did. So now you're left with an increased money supply and a balance sheet that doesn't quite add up.

The inflation crisis isn't necessarily a surprise, a lot of the institutional investors are calling this properly. But as far as total USD collapse, perhaps you're right that the debt will be the tipping point at which the debt to GDP ratio will reach a critical point. Although I must say, anyone that is paying even a little attention has probably already jumped ship.

[zanezane]

It's probably in the interest of the US just to open up the new credit card and raise the debt ceiling, because the debt burden is never going to be lowered. It's just best to pretend that Americans are stupid enough to believe they can continue spending and somehow never default on their loans. What's even more scary is the 3.5 trillion in additional spending they want to do, absolute madness.

Well, credit card is a billion dollar industry so US government will definitely not let go of that one, they will continue this even though they know that the economy won't be able to handle it, plus it's hard for them to fall because they're a superpower nation so they know their way around this kind of stuff.