What will cause the next recession?

[MNbag]

What areas in the world would have the highest chance of causing the next recession?

Is recession inevitable?

What measures can prevent recessions?

Is it an end of a financial era or a temporary setback?

[jackg]

Is recession inevitable?

In the current climate, there aren't many people dictating how many live their lives and a lot of those people (setting rates of the central bank for example) come from very similar backgrounds and are quite similar. Banks aren't controlled by many people either and often follow others, in the UK many habe the exact same interest rates on loans...

What measures can prevent recessions?

Probably making governments have a stock pile of funds they can give away to companies to keep them afloat or try to find a balance in the economy of permenant fixed rate assets.

Is it an end of a financial era or a temporary setback?

This is going to depend on how long you think an era is. Typically, over 20+ years, it can be viewed as a temporary set back overall. For people with jobs, assets and businesses they lose during a recession, it is going to be an end of an era for them.

[NeuroticFish]

What areas in the world would have the highest chance of causing the next recession?

Since the Evergrande situation didn't really go beyond China's borders, I'd still think that the "western world" will ignite the match. And that's because there the financial institutions are heavily interconnected, hence favoring a domino effect.
I'd keep an eye on the countries dependent on Russia's (methane) gas/oil and current problems with electricity and gas over Europe, for example. With COVID situation in the last 1.5 years and now this.. something somewhere may break...

Is recession inevitable?

Not yet. Maybe after another couple of cycles.
Imho the recession is caused by greed that's not stopped properly by legislation. Greed makes financial companies make mistakes which at first are seen as bold moves until everything collapses.

What measures can prevent recessions?

It's hard to define such measures. I don't know. Maybe stop "living" on debt.

Is it an end of a financial era or a temporary setback?

I think that'll be just a setback. Politicians and actual finance people don't seem determined to wipe the current way of things, since it favors them too, greatly.

[fiulpro]

What areas in the world would have the highest chance of causing the next recession?

Is recession inevitable?

What measures can prevent recessions?

Is it an end of a financial era or a temporary setback?

Recession is honestly inevitable but preventable measures can be taken hands down:
1. The stability of the government comes first
2. The banks and other financial services have to be strong as well.
3. Private and Public companies needs to regulate their own personal assets at the same time they have to engage with the general public as well
4. Creating more jobs
5. Better education
6. Better healthcare
7. Controlling the debts owned by the government hands down and taking care of the taxes as well ( they cannot expect middle class people to pay high taxes and what's even about the negative interest rates ?? Why is it even a concept)
8. Having strong ties with the international countries that might help them grow more and making sure their local businesses is flourishing as well.
9. Engaging in things like cryptocurrencies as well ( can be used as a buffer during harsh times)
Etc..

I believe things like that can make a huge difference, small things done at the right time. The government has to control and help not just themselves but the people as well, that's where a strong economy will come from, which can be used as a hedge against recession..

[Ucy]

From the online definition of recession, it is seen as temporary thing. Unfortunately, what is coming isn't likely going to be temporal... So people should be well prepare for it. It will be caused by the people themselves.

[DooMAD]

Considering that we haven't really solved any of the problems that led to the 2008/2009 Global Financial Crisis, I'm not wholly convinced we ever got out of that recession.  It feels like one big, long, never-ending thing from then to now.  It's like they kludged together a patch with some duct tape and said it wall all better.  But it still looks like a shitshow teetering on a cliff edge to me.

[palle11]

From the online definition of recession, it is seen as temporary thing. Unfortunately, what is coming isn't likely going to be temporal... So people should be well prepare for it. It will be caused by the people themselves.

The temporal capable of rendering the people hopeless and the system being in comatose. Recession is not a temporal stuff because it impact can last a long time. The last recession is still felt till date and most of the countries still struggling with it. The solution out of recession is government going into partnership with the private sector go provide loan with very low interest rates that will last a longtime for repayment and the private sector will be able to gradually rebuild the business environment then money goes from the hands of few to larger part of the public who are going to put back the money through SMES. This will help to grow the economy but if government is basing on printing of money and only doing project by themselves that means the money won't spread the larger society but to the few who are in government and even illegally appropriating the money to themselves. There is need for sinceriooso that the policies of government can get down to the people and they will be involved in wealth creation.

[hugeblack]

The global economic system suffers from major crises every 10 to 20 years, and every time some aspects change and the economy returns to prosperity again, so if you are looking for fundamental changes in the economy, you need patience for a longer period of time.

We witnessed a global financial crisis in 2008 and the economy returned after that, and excessive printing in the time of Corona will accelerate the occurrence of an economic crisis, but the world is still witnessing health problems and therefore imposing strict financial laws will be easy.

So far, there are no economic indicators of the occurrence of such crises.

[wxa7115]

Considering that we haven't really solved any of the problems that led to the 2008/2009 Global Financial Crisis, I'm not wholly convinced we ever got out of that recession.  It feels like one big, long, never-ending thing from then to now.  It's like they kludged together a patch with some duct tape and said it wall all better.  But it still looks like a shitshow teetering on a cliff edge to me.

Agreed, this is something that I have been thinking for quite some time, back then supposedly new regulation would come so this did not happen again, and what happened? Nothing, many economists warned that if this opportunity was wasted and nothing was done then the sense of urgency to do something will fade and this means that things will repeat themselves, and now more than a decade later we are seeing they were right.

However there is a huge difference, back then governments were nowhere as indebted as they are now so they could solve the crisis by giving money to private companies and socialize the losses, this is not possible anymore, so the possibility of a complete economic meltdown is more real than it has ever been during the last decades, I hope it does not happen but at this point I think it is inevitable, however they are so good at hiding what they are doing that I will not be surprised if it takes decades to get there.

[DooMAD]

Considering that we haven't really solved any of the problems that led to the 2008/2009 Global Financial Crisis, I'm not wholly convinced we ever got out of that recession.  It feels like one big, long, never-ending thing from then to now.  It's like they kludged together a patch with some duct tape and said it wall all better.  But it still looks like a shitshow teetering on a cliff edge to me.

Agreed, this is something that I have been thinking for quite some time, back then supposedly new regulation would come so this did not happen again, and what happened? Nothing, many economists warned that if this opportunity was wasted and nothing was done then the sense of urgency to do something will fade and this means that things will repeat themselves, and now more than a decade later we are seeing they were right.

However there is a huge difference, back then governments were nowhere as indebted as they are now so they could solve the crisis by giving money to private companies and socialize the losses, this is not possible anymore, so the possibility of a complete economic meltdown is more real than it has ever been during the last decades, I hope it does not happen but at this point I think it is inevitable, however they are so good at hiding what they are doing that I will not be surprised if it takes decades to get there.

Yet, instead of taking the necessary corrective action, look where those who are primarily responsible for the mess instead attempt to point the blame.  Their timing to publish this just now is impeccable:
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/oct/13/bitcoin-could-trigger-financial-meltdown-warns-bank-of-england-deputy

Bitcoin could trigger financial meltdown, warns Bank of England deputy
Sir Jon Cunliffe likens danger to 2008 crash and calls for tough regulation of cryptocurrencies

A senior Bank of England policymaker has warned that digital currencies such as bitcoin could trigger a financial meltdown unless governments step forward with tough regulations.

Likening the growth of cryptocurrencies to the spiralling value of US sub-prime mortgages before the 2008 financial crash, the deputy governor Sir Jon Cunliffe said there was danger financial markets could be rocked in a few years by an event of similar magnitude.

You couldn't make it up.  

[LUCKMCFLY]

This is a very interesting topic, but I think that everything has been delayed, for me the recession was going to start in China, but the Chinese quickly obtained liquidity through the Stock Market taking advantage of the pandemic crisis, when there was a panic many sold cheaply and they bought , but now the problem will focus on the debt, and the main Debt is from the USA, there will come a time when the debt will not be able to be paid and everything will begin to fall, obviously in this case the European economy will have more boom with the EUR, but By having good relations there could be possible help from the European community, of course this is what I am speculating, I have seen many documentaries where they affirm that the biggest bubble are the Euro and the dollar.

Currently with all the stuff that exists at the economic level, it is the main lifeline for the economic recession, another salvation like that could not have been better, for now I think there will be no recession.

[teosanru]

What areas in the world would have the highest chance of causing the next recession?

Is recession inevitable?

What measures can prevent recessions?

Is it an end of a financial era or a temporary setback?

There has always been just one thing that causes recessions, it has been "debt". It can be housing debt of retail customers, it can be the corporate debt of large organisations or it can be national debt in the form of fiscal deficits or what we in simple terms called inflation, just like we saw Evergrande crisis which happened due to liquidity issues with repayment of debt. So just look at the indicators of debt, debt which is more than the financial viability of companies or Individuals will definitely trigger the next financial apocalypse.

[alviemery96]

All countries in the world are not immune to recession but what matters is how they mitigate it. I suddenly remembered 2008 was the year of the global recession and it made a lot of people difficult in life, they were very good at hiding it by giving money to private and social companies that lost their investment and The main reserve fund is nearly exhausted, so the possibility of a full-blown economic recession is more real than at any time in recent decades.

[Hydrogen]

The next recession will be caused by apathy, indifference and people generally not caring about things that are important.

Our culture encourages people to not care about oil prices, inflation, taxes, job markets, the deficit, economy. Under the premise that not caring about these things improves our quality of life.

In reality, not caring about things is a self destructive trend. Perhaps a main cause behind circumstances deteriorating as far as they have over the past 50 years.

If events like recessions are to be avoided, people have to start caring about things.

[DooMAD]

The next recession will be caused by apathy, indifference and people generally not caring about things that are important.

Our culture encourages people to not care about oil prices, inflation, taxes, job markets, the deficit, economy. Under the premise that not caring about these things improves our quality of life.

In reality, not caring about things is a self destructive trend. Perhaps a main cause behind circumstances deteriorating as far as they have over the past 50 years.

If events like recessions are to be avoided, people have to start caring about things.

Problem is, anyone who wants to change the status quo gets labelled a radical and the smear campaigns start.  It clearly benefits the ruling class for everything to work exactly how it does right now.  A select few are making an absolute killing out of all of this.  If no one cares, it's because anyone who has ever tried to change things for the better gets piled on by those entrenched vested interests who have all the money and don't want things to change.  Our political system (if you can even call it one) breeds apathy and disillusionment.

[haidil]

There may be many ideal theories in overcoming a country's economic recession. However, it will never work as it should if in the end everything returns to aligning individual and group interests rather than fixing the economy as a whole.
If this disease is still attached to all high-ranking circles, then every time you want to get out of the threat of recession, plus the post-pandemic economic recovery will only be a dream.