Reality Check on Crypto

[MNbag]

Sometimes, this forum thinks that the rest of the world will flock to Bitcoin in droves because of its qualities.

Some people think that every potential user/investor will care about its decentralized features or its high value.

Well, it is not the case.

The people who go to BitcoinTalk are not the average investor: they are interested enough in crypto to make an account here.

It is not the posters you talk to, but the invisible lurkers who may be reading this very post.

[1714684851]

1714684851

[1714684851]

1714684851

[nakamura12]

Then what are you trying to tell or explain in this thread?. You got some point their not all you said is what it seems. You may think like that but there is more to be seen in the naked eye. What about the business man who run their own platform like casinos and sportsbook. Some of the lurkers didn't stay like that for long and I even read some thread where this person is a lurker and later on decided to create his/her account on bitcointalk for further learning and understanding.

[LoyceV]

This is really a strong message! Look at the nocoiner standing there, proudly presenting his (her?) findings. I would believe all of it, except for the fact that this guy (girl?) feels the need to create a presentation about it!
If crypto is worth so much attention from all those people who say it can't work, I can only conclude I'm on the right track.

I guess many people still really believe the "modern financial system" works in their favour. Bankers love that flawed idea!

[odolvlobo]

This is really a strong message! Look at the nocoiner standing there, ...

Umm. Is that sarcasm? That's Vitalik, and he's hardly a "no-coiner".

On the other hand, I disagree with his conclusion based on what most users think. I think it overlooks the effects of adoption.

[Gyfts]

Most users are decently served by the modern financial system currently, doesn't mean that will serve true in the future. It doesn't make much sense to me to use a currency that loses 2-5 percent of it's value every year, nor does it make sense to use a currency that can be closely monitored by the government and restricted on a whim. That's a lot of trust you're willing to give, and while you may trust your government today, it won't always be the case.

Go back to when Lebanon completely restricted access to bank accounts - https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/lebanon-bank-customers-regain-access-up-800-month-2021-06-04/

This absolutely can happen to a major country if you look at the trajectory of their economies and their currencies.

[_Miracle]

This is really a strong message! Look at the nocoiner standing there, ...

Umm. Is that sarcasm? That's Vitalik, and he's hardly a "no-coiner".

On the other hand, I disagree with his conclusion based on what most users think. I think it overlooks the effects of adoption.

That's what I thought  
I'm looking forward to using it as money again but I don't know how long that's going to be or if it will be.

[jaysabi]

This is really a strong message! Look at the nocoiner standing there, proudly presenting his (her?) findings. I would believe all of it, except for the fact that this guy (girl?) feels the need to create a presentation about it!
If crypto is worth so much attention from all those people who say it can't work, I can only conclude I'm on the right track.

I guess many people still really believe the "modern financial system" works in their favour. Bankers love that flawed idea!

Loool. You don't even recognize one of the most influential people in crypto in this picture in your haste to dismiss the wholly legitimate arguments he's presenting.  He's right about it too.  The vast majority of crypto "adopters" that have pushed the price so high don't actually care about decentralization.  Rude truth is that the majority of crypto enthusiasts are just FOMOing in trying to get rich.  And it's funny that people bitch about the USD losing 2% per year somehow thing a currency they can't predict the value of tomorrow is somehow better.

[Gyfts]

Loool. You don't even recognize one of the most influential people in crypto in this picture in our haste to dismiss the wholly legitimate arguments he's presenting.  He's right about it too.  The vast majority of crypto "adopters" that have pushed the price so high don't actually care about decentralization.  Rude truth is that the majority of crypto enthusiasts are just FOMOing in trying to get rich.  And it's funny that people bitch about the USD losing 2% per year somehow thing a currency they can't predict the value of tomorrow is somehow better.

It's more than 2 percent per year, it's 5 percent for USD, 2 percent would be a dream for most folks. 2 percent is the value that the fed aims for, under ideal conditions. And as I'm sure you know, the endless spending the US government is so familiar with does not help the inflation problem.

[adaseb]

What he says is partly true. The volatility is not good however this is why stable coins exist. Sure people in El Salvador are happy when BTC had a crazy rally since it became legal tender however they wouldn’t be too happy if it went the other way.

Imagine getting paid to Do a job in BTC. Then 1 month later it loses 20% value, then the month after another 20%. This obviously is way too volatile for most people, especially those that depend on their pay check. Hence why stable coins are important.

[Darker45]

While I agree that most users are not ideological decentralization advocates and that if they are coming from first world countries they are more or less decently served by the modern financial system, I highly disagree that these same people dislike price volatility. As a matter of fact, it's probably price volatility itself that brought them into the crypto market. Had Bitcoin's price value remained more or less stable, would these people have ever thought of buying Bitcoin? I don't think so. It was the wild swings that attracted many Bitcoin owners. Many of them could not even explain what Bitcoin really is at the time they entered. They're just attracted by the fact that there could be money in Bitcoin. That's prior to them trying to understand the technology more.

As to the prediction, BTC's volatility is enough that it wouldn't become substantially used as a unit-of-account. BTC may become a significant form of payment but the way BTC fluctuates against fiat, it is hard to just stick to the 1BTC is 1BTC mentality.

[Wexnident]

Hmm saying the first part is entirely true or entirely false seems wrong since there are investors that are joining in Bitcoin just because it's a highly speculative asset, and not really because it's a decentralized currency imo. I won't say for certain but I'd reckon there'd be a few traders out there with that kind of mindset. And as for volatility, I think it depends on how you view it? I mean your $1 could potentially turn into a $100 or 0 depending on the market, so saying that people hate it is probably because volatility was in against them, while they'd probably like it if volatility was with them.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

Am I the only one here who's going to question the context of Vitalik standing in front of that particular slide?  Personally, I have no idea when or where that presentation was or what he was saying at that moment.  Thus it's very hard for me to draw any conclusions from a single picture like that.

Imagine getting paid to Do a job in BTC. Then 1 month later it loses 20% value, then the month after another 20%. This obviously is way too volatile for most people, especially those that depend on their pay check. Hence why stable coins are important.

That's not why stablecoins are important at all.  First of all, I doubt you know anybody who gets their paycheck in bitcoin, let alone in something like USDT.  Second, the only purpose that I can see for stablecoins is to protect against volatility on exchanges (not in real life like your example), in between trades when you're waiting for a buying opportunity.  But I'd love to hear your counterargument if you see this.

But let's assume that Vitalik was arguing for all of those points shown on his slide; I agree that the current financial system does indeed serve most people quite well--at least as far as having checking accounts and basic banking functions available to them.  That's why we haven't seen people clamoring to adopt bitcoin, nor a groundswell of outrage that their debit cards don't work or that it's too costly to send money to others through services like PayPal.  If you're being honest with yourself, you'll admit that's true no matter how much you love bitcoin.

[jaysabi]

Loool. You don't even recognize one of the most influential people in crypto in this picture in our haste to dismiss the wholly legitimate arguments he's presenting.  He's right about it too.  The vast majority of crypto "adopters" that have pushed the price so high don't actually care about decentralization.  Rude truth is that the majority of crypto enthusiasts are just FOMOing in trying to get rich.  And it's funny that people bitch about the USD losing 2% per year somehow thing a currency they can't predict the value of tomorrow is somehow better.

It's more than 2 percent per year, it's 5 percent for USD, 2 percent would be a dream for most folks. 2 percent is the value that the fed aims for, under ideal conditions. And as I'm sure you know, the endless spending the US government is so familiar with does not help the inflation problem.

It's historically not 5% per year, not even close.  The inflation rate over the last 11 years averages 2% per year, and that's including the large increase in 2021.  It's been remarkably stable despite the massive quantitative easing.  And even assuming we used your wrong number of 5% per year, that would still be vastly superior as a currency to one that regularly depreciates 10% in a day.  That's an unusable currency that doesn't allow for any type of long term planning because volatility is a terrible quality for a currency to have.  The inability to plan long term is a death knell for any economy.

Year    Annual Inflation Rate
2011       3.0%
2012       1.7%
2013       1.5%
2014       0.8%
2015       0.7%
2016       2.1%
2017       2.1%
2018       1.9%
2019       2.3%
2020       1.4%
2021       5.4%

Source:  https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/

[bbc.reporter]

@MNbag. This is not very shocking except for the larpers who only hodl and dreaming to be rich. In reality, they do not use bitcoin for everyday payments, however, they will be very aggressive to call you an antagonizer.

The more honest people would not attack constructive criticsms but would ask and explore if bitcoin can really be used for mainstream adoption and everyday payments.



One month since launch, 12% of consumers have used the cryptocurrency, the Salvadoran Foundation for Economic and Social Development reported.

"Since yesterday, Salvadorans are inserting more cash (to buy #bitcoin) than what they are withdrawing from the @chivowallet ATMs," Bukele tweeted on Wednesday. "This is very surprising so early in the game."

But the foundation, which polled 233 companies across different sectors, found that the overall use was still low, with 93% of companies reporting no bitcoin payments.

"We're still not sure what benefits the government expected," said Leonor Selva of the National Association of Private Enterprises, one of several business groups that remains skeptical about the rollout.

Source https://www.reuters.com/technology/one-month-el-salvadors-bitcoin-use-grows-headaches-persist-2021-10-07/

[cabron]

Loool. You don't even recognize one of the most influential people in crypto in this picture in our haste to dismiss the wholly legitimate arguments he's presenting.  He's right about it too.  The vast majority of crypto "adopters" that have pushed the price so high don't actually care about decentralization.  Rude truth is that the majority of crypto enthusiasts are just FOMOing in trying to get rich.  And it's funny that people bitch about the USD losing 2% per year somehow thing a currency they can't predict the value of tomorrow is somehow better.

It's more than 2 percent per year, it's 5 percent for USD, 2 percent would be a dream for most folks. 2 percent is the value that the fed aims for, under ideal conditions. And as I'm sure you know, the endless spending the US government is so familiar with does not help the inflation problem.

It's historically not 5% per year, not even close.  The inflation rate over the last 11 years averages 2% per year, and that's including the large increase in 2021.  It's been remarkably stable despite the massive quantitative easing.  And even assuming we used your wrong number of 5% per year, that would still be vastly superior as a currency to one that regularly depreciates 10% in a day.  That's an unusable currency that doesn't allow for any type of long term planning because volatility is a terrible quality for a currency to have.  The inability to plan long term is a death knell for any economy.

Year    Annual Inflation Rate
2011       3.0%
2012       1.7%
2013       1.5%
2014       0.8%
2015       0.7%
2016       2.1%
2017       2.1%
2018       1.9%
2019       2.3%
2020       1.4%
2021       5.4%

Source:  https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/

Unfortunately, it's not inflation that investors who are lurking are concern about but its profit because if not all, most of them expect prices to double after a day of buying a cryptocurrency. They are not planning to hold for a long time.

While those investors who have ideology hated binance for asking KYC, they send drivers licenses and passports to get every airdrop that is offered.

[davis196]

Most users are not ideological decentralization advocates

And so what?No Bitcoin user is obligated to believe in decentralization in order to use Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is a currency/financial asset.Bitcoin is NOT a religion or ideology.

Most users are decently served by the modern financial system.

Again...so what?If they are well served by the fiat system,then that's good for them.The crypto industry is an alternative to the banking system,but that doesn't mean that all crypto users are going to dump the banks or fiat money in general.
The "crypto vs.fiat" is just a competition,not a bloody battle,in which only one will remain.

Most users hate price volatility...

I hate price volatility as well,but that doesn't make me wanna dump Bitcoin.

It seems to me that this list of criticisms against crypto is out of context and the guy doing the presentation looks like Vitalik Buterin.

[joniboini]

It seems to me that this list of criticisms against crypto is out of context and the guy doing the presentation looks like Vitalik Buterin.

I think those points lead to the prediction on that slide, which essentially says that BTC will never be the major currency on the market. There might be a lot of users who use it daily, but it won't replace fiat, which is not necessarily anti-crypto.

Tbh OP doesn't make it clear what he's trying to do here. Sounds like he share the same sentiment, but his last sentence is quite ambiguous.

[LoyceV]

Is that sarcasm?

Partially.

That's Vitalik, and he's hardly a "no-coiner".

Lol, am I supposed to recognize him or something? I'd say "nocoiner" applies to anyone who doesn't hold Bitcoin, but in this case "shitcoiner" might fit better.
It does explain this slide though: he only used Bitcointalk to promote his own premined shitcoin, and left right after. He started strong with "code is law", and abandoned that too when he and his friends lost their coins in a smart contract they didn't understand. They even called the only person who understood the contract "the attacker" and hardforked their centralized coin, thereby abandoning the one USP they had.
Ethereum got big selling tokens for ICO-scams that spammed all over the internet.

Knowing who he is, it looks like he's talking about himself when he talks about "not advocating decentralization". And it also explains why he's still shitting on Bitcoin: he needs his own shitcoin to survive.

Loool. You don't even recognize one of the most influential people in crypto

Sorry, I don't do "influencers". Bitcoin is not about "influential people", Bitcoin keeps going despite many "influential" people declaring it's dead.

The vast majority of crypto "adopters" that have pushed the price so high don't actually care about decentralization.  Rude truth is that the majority of crypto enthusiasts are just FOMOing in trying to get rich.

I guess I have a different definition of "Bitcoin users". I follow the "Not your keys, not your coins"-principle, so all those people building a "portfolio" on an exchange don't even count. You don't call someone who buys Toyota stock a Toyota user, right?

The volatility is not good however this is why stable coins exist.

I've never liked stable coins: not only do you completely rely on a centralized third party, you're also exposed to the same inflation fiat money gives you. That's not "stable", it should be called "decreasing coins".

I'm not alone:

"yes... a shitcoiner is a nocoiner"

[fiulpro]

There is one thing that I have strong opinions about.

*The part about disliking the price Volatility*

The sole reason why people flock to bitcoins is because they have the rare opportunity to grow their investments, not just double or triple!! Being the 8th most valuable asset does come with ups and downs ofcourse, just like many other investments, there are whales, who might bring the price down or might be shooting it up in a matter of seconds. People do not hate Volatility, people hate when the price goes down.
Which is something important to consider as well, you have to hold your coins for the long term, plus if you are unsure about it then you just realize that *you do not loose until you do not sell*. Therefore I do believe the investors here are very well aware of the Volatility and this doesn't really freak them out, what causes probelm is panic. Which is entirely different.

[d_eddie]

It's historically not 5% per year, not even close.

-snip-

Year    Annual Inflation Rate
2011       3.0%
2012       1.7%
2013       1.5%
2014       0.8%
2015       0.7%
2016       2.1%
2017       2.1%
2018       1.9%
2019       2.3%
2020       1.4%
2021       5.4%

Source:  https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/

You do believe the official reported figures don't you. After all, they have no incentive to lie about that...