Inflation & Supply Chain Issues-How bad is it going to get?!

[ChiBitCTy]

Right now things are starting to get a bit scary with not only how bad inflation has gotten, but also how bad supply chain issues are continuing to get.  The pandemic has caused a huge mess, and I'm curious how bad you guys see things getting and if it's as bad in your country as it is here in the United States.

First, how bad is inflation in your country..what % is it currently at?  (Here in the U.S. it's between 4-6% on average.  Many items have inflated much more such as seafood being around 20-30%)

Second, are you seeing supply chain issues in your country and how bad is it? (For example my favorite toilet paper has not been produced for well over a year now.  Recently my two favorite bags of chips have become unavailable from both supply chain issues and factories focusing on other items, putting them ahead of my FAVORITE damn chips lol).

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[Ucy]

I think I focus more on my needs or goods/services I need everyday... As far as I tell, there isn't much increase in price except in the price of water which I immediately stopped using after inquiring whether the increase was justified. Fortunately, there is steady supply of natural water at home which could be boiled before drinking, even though it's clean physically.

I think if price of something increase so much, better to look for good and cheaper alternatives of same/similar size rather than adding to the demand. If lots of people do this, that could force the price to come down.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

(Here in the U.S. it's between 4-6% on average.  Many items have inflated much more such as seafood being around 20-30%)

Thanks for posting that statistic, because I wasn't sure what the US inflation rate is right now.  That doesn't seem to be that high, but compared to all those years when inflation was near zero, it's really damn high.  And yep, that 4-6% doesn't apply across the board for all goods and services. 

Just look at gas prices, which have gone from an average of $2.0x (or something like that) to well over $3/gallon today--and that's a massive hit on people's wallets, since most people drive.  The folks with the huge, gas-guzzling SUVs are taking the biggest hit, though I have little sympathy for them.

Recently my two favorite bags of chips have become unavailable from both supply chain issues and factories focusing on other items, putting them ahead of my FAVORITE damn chips lol).

Oddly enough, I've noticed that regular Cheetos have been frequently out of stock in my area, though those awful hot ones are still on the shelves.  I've also seen cat food shelves near empty as of late.

As to your question of how bad it's going to get....I have no idea.  I assume the supply chain people are working on a fix and doing the best they can, though that's a pretty generous and optimistic assumption to make.  Let's say I'm hoping those things are true.

[Ultegra134]

Went to buy some Lipton tea (the large one, 1.5L), and let's just say that I bought something else. Prices have skyrocketed, even in soft drinks, that tea costed €2.39, which I find way too much. However, I've noticed plenty of goods having inflated prices. From soft drinks such as Cola, to chips and dairy and meat products. It's disturbing to say the least, daily grocery shopping has gone up a good 4%-5% I'd say, and this number is expected to rise.

According to TargetEconomics, Greece's annual inflation rate rose to 2.2% in September 2021, which is the highest since January of 2012.  Main upward pressure came from prices of transport (7.8 percent vs 6.7 percent in August); housing (4.7 percent vs 4.4 percent) and food & non-alcoholic beverages & tobacco (3.1 percent vs 3 percent). On a monthly basis, consumer prices inched up 2.1 percent.

Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/greece/inflation-cpi

[ChiBitCTy]

I think if price of something increase so much, better to look for good and cheaper alternatives of same/similar size rather than adding to the demand. If lots of people do this, that could force the price to come down.

The problem with this is most companies who produce cheaper/generic items are the same ones who make the name brand/full price items.  What really sucks is those generic items having increased in price too, where as they would normally feel like a sale.

(Here in the U.S. it's between 4-6% on average.  Many items have inflated much more such as seafood being around 20-30%)

Thanks for posting that statistic, because I wasn't sure what the US inflation rate is right now.  That doesn't seem to be that high, but compared to all those years when inflation was near zero, it's really damn high.  And yep, that 4-6% doesn't apply across the board for all goods and services. 

Recently my two favorite bags of chips have become unavailable from both supply chain issues and factories focusing on other items, putting them ahead of my FAVORITE damn chips lol).

Oddly enough, I've noticed that regular Cheetos have been frequently out of stock in my area, though those awful hot ones are still on the shelves.  I've also seen cat food shelves near empty as of late.

Did you mean to say 4-6% DOES apply across the board? Because that is the rate of inflation across the board in the US.  The vast majority of items are seeing inflation.  Most basic items are seeing that 4-6% rise but specialty items are really getting hit hard.  For example my buddy who runs a boat building business said the epoxy he uses for boats has increased by I believe it was 35%.  My dog food went up $10 a bag which is like 20% increase.

Yeah I've seen the same thing with stores here. My local Mexican grocery store is now completely out of basic Tostito's chips. My local CVS looks like a barren wasteland.  I just saw on the news that most grocery stores are starting to see the effects of this and once again things like toilet paper are running low now.  This is all getting ugly ugly ugly!

[Fortify]

Right now things are starting to get a bit scary with not only how bad inflation has gotten, but also how bad supply chain issues are continuing to get.  The pandemic has caused a huge mess, and I'm curious how bad you guys see things getting and if it's as bad in your country as it is here in the United States.

First, how bad is inflation in your country..what % is it currently at?  (Here in the U.S. it's between 4-6% on average.  Many items have inflated much more such as seafood being around 20-30%)

Second, are you seeing supply chain issues in your country and how bad is it? (For example my favorite toilet paper has not been produced for well over a year now.  Recently my two favorite bags of chips have become unavailable from both supply chain issues and factories focusing on other items, putting them ahead of my FAVORITE damn chips lol).

It seems we are still in the very early stages of inflation and how bad it'll get depends on how long it perseveres. People in most countries will likely be able to tolerate a year or two of inflation without too devastating an impact - it will erode their salaries and push up the cost of living, so it closes the margin between income and outgoings. However the real challenge will be longer term, unless it is gotten under control it could cause central bank interest rates to rise which will cause a lot of trouble for home owners in 2-5 years time after the mortgages come up for renewal. If people are used to paying 2% it will be a big shock to see it rise up to 5-10% and will seriously curtail spending power, this has a knock on effect and ultimately leads to recessions.

[dothebeats]

Here it's down to 4.5%, from a staggering 7.2% just a month before due to continuous printing of money and sudden lockdowns that contributed to goods being inflated. The price of basic necessities are still kept in check, although vegetables, fruits, and other such produce from farms kept on climbing all year round. Poultry products are also on the rise, too, and I don't think there will be a stop to this any time soon since the country is still on the works of reopening its economy for the nth time.

Imports are still steady, though the production of some of the local goods (such as sardines, chips, etc.) slowed down. I rarely see one of the local potato chips that I always buy whenever I go to the grocery, possibly because they still haven't resumed 100% of their operations.

[Ultegra134]

Right now things are starting to get a bit scary with not only how bad inflation has gotten, but also how bad supply chain issues are continuing to get.  The pandemic has caused a huge mess, and I'm curious how bad you guys see things getting and if it's as bad in your country as it is here in the United States.

First, how bad is inflation in your country..what % is it currently at?  (Here in the U.S. it's between 4-6% on average.  Many items have inflated much more such as seafood being around 20-30%)

Second, are you seeing supply chain issues in your country and how bad is it? (For example my favorite toilet paper has not been produced for well over a year now.  Recently my two favorite bags of chips have become unavailable from both supply chain issues and factories focusing on other items, putting them ahead of my FAVORITE damn chips lol).

It seems we are still in the very early stages of inflation and how bad it'll get depends on how long it perseveres. People in most countries will likely be able to tolerate a year or two of inflation without too devastating an impact - it will erode their salaries and push up the cost of living, so it closes the margin between income and outgoings. However the real challenge will be longer term, unless it is gotten under control it could cause central bank interest rates to rise which will cause a lot of trouble for home owners in 2-5 years time after the mortgages come up for renewal. If people are used to paying 2% it will be a big shock to see it rise up to 5-10% and will seriously curtail spending power, this has a knock on effect and ultimately leads to recessions.

You seem to know what you're talking about, I have a genuine question, though, how do things return to "normal"? How do we return to pre-inflation levels? For instance, fuel prices keep rising, so are most of our daily goods, how are these prices going to return to more humane levels? Is this thing a one off, which will last a few months before it dies down?

[teosanru]

Right now things are starting to get a bit scary with not only how bad inflation has gotten, but also how bad supply chain issues are continuing to get.  The pandemic has caused a huge mess, and I'm curious how bad you guys see things getting and if it's as bad in your country as it is here in the United States.

First, how bad is inflation in your country..what % is it currently at?  (Here in the U.S. it's between 4-6% on average.  Many items have inflated much more such as seafood being around 20-30%)

Second, are you seeing supply chain issues in your country and how bad is it? (For example my favorite toilet paper has not been produced for well over a year now.  Recently my two favorite bags of chips have become unavailable from both supply chain issues and factories focusing on other items, putting them ahead of my FAVORITE damn chips lol).

I am surprised that US is facing supply chain issues despite no lockdown being imposed in the country, this shows how fragile the US Economy is at it's core, even though I think these issues are just a one time event and will obviously heal them up in coming few months, they surely have impacted quite a lot of people. Honestly I don't blame government or systems for it, in such black swan events these things always happen, supply chains would still have been disrupted if there was no inflation, moreover 4-6% isn't that high in a developing country but as developed countries don't often face such high inflation it could be really hurting for sure.

[Findingnemo]

I am noticing a drastic price increase on the food related products like meat, veggies, cooking oil in the recent days which are about 20 to 40% rise before covid 19 situation but government claims that there is no such increase and remain silent about people shouting at them for everything, I think the consequences will get worsen in the coming months and this how it will be from now on.

[LoyceV]

First, how bad is inflation in your country..what % is it currently at?

Officially, inflation is now 2.7%. But the official inflation calculation always seems like it's designed to keep numbers low, even though the price of almost anything I buy increases much faster.
People often say "taxation is theft", but I'd say inflation is the real theft because it's hidden. As a consumer, I'd be much better off without inflation. I love buying things with Bitcoin and seeing how products get cheaper over the years! Inflation is forced upon us by central banks and governments, probably to give the illusion of getting more money while in reality it makes it much more different to compare real prices (and wages) between generations.

Second, are you seeing supply chain issues in your country and how bad is it?

I've been trying to buy a certain bicycle that's just not available. Other than that, supply chain problems just lead to a higher price.

there isn't much increase in price except in the price of water which I immediately stopped using

How much do you pay for water if I may ask? Here I pay $0.0015 per liter drinking water (that's why we use drinking water to flush the toilet).

Just look at gas prices, which have gone from an average of $2.0x (or something like that) to well over $3/gallon today--and that's a massive hit on people's wallets

Looks like you have no idea how lucky you are! Here, Euro95 (the most common fuel with 10% ethanol) costs $9.22 per gallon. We almost hold the record, only Hongkong left to beat

I am surprised that US is facing supply chain issues despite no lockdown being imposed in the country, this shows how fragile the US Economy is at it's core

Have you seen the Backlog of cargo ships at southern California ports? I'm not sure how recent this backlog is, but considering container transportation is now very scarce and very expensive, having 100 ships waiting to unload hundreds of thousands of containers means all those containers can't be used elsewhere:

“These issues go through the entire chain, from ship to shelf,” Pete Buttigieg, the transportation secretary, told ABC7. “That’s why we’re not just working with the ports. It’s the truckers, the rail companies, the operators and also those retail companies that are at the other end of those supply chains.”

It's ironic: containerships were created because standardised containers are very convenient and made shipping very cheap. That advantage is gone now.

[Gyfts]

Current predictions are inflation will continue on to 2023 at high rates, but the US economy is going to grow slow too, so it's not just an inflation problem. High money supply and labor shortages, less products on the shelve. To some extent, the supply chain issues were inevitable due to Covid, but the US seems to be unique in that they pay people to stay home and do nothing, therefor lower skilled jobs are empty for months on end. From what I understand, most of the importing happens on the coast of California, and of course, California has basically turned into a welfare state during the course of the pandemic, so not like this was not expected.

[dkbit98]

It's going to get very bad, and all this inflation and chain supply issues looks like a manufactured and designed global reset economy crash ready to happen in next year 2022 I think.
I don't trust any of the numbers they are showing us for inflation because they are 100% rigged to be low, everyone can see that prices for everything went sky high, and cargo ships are staying stuck for weeks.
Anyone who thinks that this in temporary and transitory thing is delusional and lives in some fairytale, and I am not sure we can avoid it because people are blindly listening their governments, that is like a blind man leading everyone into abyss.
Owning Bitcoin, land and other hard assets is now crucial, but I would also get ready for hunger games and bigger electricity restrictions soon.

[Nightz]

Right now things are starting to get a bit scary with not only how bad inflation has gotten, but also how bad supply chain issues are continuing to get.  The pandemic has caused a huge mess, and I'm curious how bad you guys see things getting and if it's as bad in your country as it is here in the United States.

First, how bad is inflation in your country..what % is it currently at?  (Here in the U.S. it's between 4-6% on average.  Many items have inflated much more such as seafood being around 20-30%)

Second, are you seeing supply chain issues in your country and how bad is it? (For example my favorite toilet paper has not been produced for well over a year now.  Recently my two favorite bags of chips have become unavailable from both supply chain issues and factories focusing on other items, putting them ahead of my FAVORITE damn chips lol).

Great topic and I think what's worse is the fact that the insane crisis was there way before the pandemic began. I came across an article and couldn't believe it, but then reached out to a friend who has an IT company in the heart of San Francisco, and what I am going to post does not even only apply to those living right in the center. Check this article headline out from CNBC:

"In San Francisco, households earning $117,000 qualify as ‘low income’"

That is quite insane to say the least and my friend said that this is not just a relative figure because there are so many rich people, it is just the fact that you pay 5k per months for a shoe box as your apartment.

Now during the pandemic even many people from the middle class ended up living in tents on the streets in SF well known for those masses of homeless.

That's painful.

[Uang_kartal]

when I'm going through everything feels difficult.. I'm optimistic that there's still something I can eat during a pandemic like this.. it shouldn't be the time to just prepare everything.. the impact of the pandemic is very bad.. the country is in crisis with the economic process paralyzed. .. staying at home is not the solution.. The inflation rate for the calendar year (January–August) 2021 is 0.84 percent and the year-on-year inflation rate.. this is sad.. making the prices of products and services increase.. online buying and selling also experienced delays due to lockdown.. hopefully my story is not too painful to imagine

[Coyster]

First, how bad is inflation in your country..what % is it currently at?  (Here in the U.S. it's between 4-6% on average.  Many items have inflated much more such as seafood being around 20-30%)

It's pretty high/bad in my country at the moment, I do not know the official percentage, but from my personal daily experiences, inflation seems to be skyrocketing over here as things stands now, another thing is, my country was In a pretty bad state before the pandemic and quite as expected the pandemic has made things a whole lot worse. This is another thing to point out, I believe countries that were struggling perviously are in more mess and things will get bad and even worse for them quicker than countries that could boast of a stable economy before the pandemic.

Second, are you seeing supply chain issues in your country and how bad is it?

I'm yet to experience any issues with supply chain, the only thing that's happening is that the contents and quality of products produced are gradually reducing/declining, and I think it's as a result of a hike in the cost of production, well, if things continue in this way then sooner or later they'll outrightly stop the production of some items/products.

[Lucius]

First, how bad is inflation in your country..what % is it currently at?

In the EU, inflation is between 2-4% according to official figures, but some economic experts warn that these figures are much higher, because the biggest feature of politicians is that they serve nicely packaged lies.
 

Second, are you seeing supply chain issues in your country and how bad is it? (For example my favorite toilet paper has not been produced for well over a year now.  Recently my two favorite bags of chips have become unavailable from both supply chain issues and factories focusing on other items, putting them ahead of my FAVORITE damn chips lol).

I'm sorry about the toilet paper, it's my least concern - but it's quite noticeable that everything has become more expensive, not only because of the disrupted supply chain, but also because of the increase in fuel prices, which logically caused a chain reaction. Since this development was expected, I created some supplies of basic necessities sufficient for at least 6 months, in addition to producing some food in my garden, which will allow me to be somewhat self-sustaining.

I have long since developed various survival tactics and I am not afraid of inflation or supply disruptions, I have survived much worse than that - but I understand that people are afraid when they see what is happening. Unfortunately, this is due to the fact that we have become a consumer society that depends on big producers, and when they get into trouble, those at the bottom of the food chain can really find themselves in big trouble.

[electronicash]

i'm not feeling the supply chain issue in my country but the prices is going to the moon particularly the gas so it could still be a supply chain issue causing more demands. but there isn't so much news about it in my country compared to US news which they see port congestion while the delivery ships are docking nearby.

they couldn't just move to another port to unload what they have. it may take days but i suppose it's better than just waiting for weeks in the middle of the sea.
they are saying that if you have something to order for Christmas, this October might be the best time to order for it may be able to reach your doorstep right on time for xmas.

[fiulpro]

The supply chain issues are definitely going to be big for the countries like the US where they import most of the stuff and the factories are not really sufficient enough to handle everything. For the developing countries, the supply chain issues are a bit better but the inflation is worse since their economy is going down due to lack of international exchange.

Plus you should be aware that it's going to affect the upcoming festivals as well. People are going to pay a lot more than the MRP or what it should have been. Therefore what we are seeing right now is not even that bad, one should wait for the Christmas.

[Ultegra134]

i'm not feeling the supply chain issue in my country but the prices is going to the moon particularly the gas so it could still be a supply chain issue causing more demands. but there isn't so much news about it in my country compared to US news which they see port congestion while the delivery ships are docking nearby.

they couldn't just move to another port to unload what they have. it may take days but i suppose it's better than just waiting for weeks in the middle of the sea.
they are saying that if you have something to order for Christmas, this October might be the best time to order for it may be able to reach your doorstep right on time for xmas.

Neither do I, it's not like I've seen a shortage of anything, it's mostly that all prices have gone up, for most goods you can find in the supermarket. I don't believe that we'll face an issue with shortages anytime soon, but prices are expected to rise significantly in the near future.