Inflation & Supply Chain Issues-How bad is it going to get?!

[RealMalatesta]

It's going to get very bad, and all this inflation and chain supply issues looks like a manufactured and designed global reset economy crash ready to happen in next year 2022 I think.
I don't trust any of the numbers they are showing us for inflation because they are 100% rigged to be low, everyone can see that prices for everything went sky high, and cargo ships are staying stuck for weeks.
Anyone who thinks that this in temporary and transitory thing is delusional and lives in some fairytale, and I am not sure we can avoid it because people are blindly listening their governments, that is like a blind man leading everyone into abyss.
Owning Bitcoin, land and other hard assets is now crucial, but I would also get ready for hunger games and bigger electricity restrictions soon.

Unfortunately that happens all the time. We end up with companies getting richer thanks to our money, and then we end up with not really pay them anymore, or at least not be able to pay them. Which causes us to have debt, and which causes them to not have any new buyers. So, what happens? Companies start to suck since they can't sell stuff, and people are already in big debt because they bought back in the day but can't now, and the market crashes.

This happens all the time, it is expected to happen again, it will never stop happening, it will keep on happening all the time. So all in all I would say that we are going to end up with something like a system change eventually, maybe not now, not this decade, but one day in the future it will be forced to happen.

[wxa7115]

Right now things are starting to get a bit scary with not only how bad inflation has gotten, but also how bad supply chain issues are continuing to get.  The pandemic has caused a huge mess, and I'm curious how bad you guys see things getting and if it's as bad in your country as it is here in the United States.

First, how bad is inflation in your country..what % is it currently at?  (Here in the U.S. it's between 4-6% on average.  Many items have inflated much more such as seafood being around 20-30%)

Second, are you seeing supply chain issues in your country and how bad is it? (For example my favorite toilet paper has not been produced for well over a year now.  Recently my two favorite bags of chips have become unavailable from both supply chain issues and factories focusing on other items, putting them ahead of my FAVORITE damn chips lol).

It is pretty bad as you may guess and this is happening all over the world, I just made a purchase for an item and the expected time for its arrival is two months and quite honestly I think that is too optimistic, it will probably take 3 months at the earliest.

However I think we are bound to see an improvement on this situation as businesses will try to do everything they can to have their supply chain working and they will pay extra for it and this will bring more people and companies to the field and solve the issue eventually.

[Hydrogen]

Here is an interesting piece on inflation published back in 2011.

Inflation Actually Near 10% Using Older Measure

12 April 2011

Inflation, using the reporting methodologies in place before 1980, hit an annual rate of 9.6 percent in February, according to the Shadow Government Statistics newsletter.

Since 1980, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has changed the way it calculates the CPI in order to account for the substitution of products, improvements in quality (i.e. iPad 2 costing the same as original iPad) and other things. Backing out more methods implemented in 1990 by the BLS still puts inflation at a 5.5 percent rate and getting worse, according to the calculations by the newsletter’s web site, Shadowstats.com.

https://www.cnbc.com/id/42551209

....

A debate could be had over where current day inflation would legitimately be tallied. Governments around the world normally sugar coat and polish statistics to paint a prettier picture of current events.

The real question is: do people want inflation and supply chain disruptions to improve. Enough to be informed and support the right steps necessary to fix them. Delegating the decision making process to complete strangers can sometimes be a forfeiture of all decisions affecting ones future.

[Sir Legend]

This is an important thing for the country to always maintain inflation and the supply chain, in my country, commodity prices can vary by hundreds of percent, this is because the country's infrastructure is still lagging, and maintaining a balanced supply is something that the state must do.

[stompix]

I'll just focus on the supply chains at macro level from personal experience:
Some are broken beyond repair at this moment, some are doing just fine.

So, at least in my country or rather than that my region, the things that worked almost flawless:
The whole chain of logistics between my family farm and the meat processing and the superstores, we had zero hiccups with this from the start of April. The guys that run the trucks say that's the same for most of the other businesses in the region, so that's the good part.

Worse than worse is everything that's related to importing heavy equipment and spare parts, we're waiting for some to be shipped out of the US for months and for some from the Netherlands about the same time but at least for the last, there is the hope of actually being processed. Complete disaster with everything that is construction material, from PVC to steel wire.

What could turn worse?
Rumors from our suppliers that fertilizer will go through the roof, and then when it comes to food you're going to see all of them skyrocketing. It's simple, you use fertilizer at 300% and gas at 200% the price you must at 25% or you won't get even, you don't use them your production is cut by 4 or 5 times, and then the law of demand and offer kicks in.
Prepare for a food shock new year, if farmers can't get cheap fertilizer/gas/seed in the spring in autumn you'll see twice the price for everything.

i'm not feeling the supply chain issue in my country but the prices is going to the moon particularly the gas so it could still be a supply chain issue causing more demands. but there isn't so much news about it in my country compared to US news which they see port congestion while the delivery ships are docking nearby.

Hihi, just because you don't see them talking about it doesn't mean that there isn't one. Besides, if some ports are congested then it means all the ships are standing by rather than delivering stuff so some ports that are free are just because they aren't receiving anything or exporting anything, which is also damn bad.

they couldn't just move to another port to unload what they have. it may take days but i suppose it's better than just waiting for weeks in the middle of the sea.

Most ports are not designed to deal with huge cargo ships, they lack the equipment and even if they would try and deal with it what takes 1-3 days in a big port will take weeks in a small one. And there is the problem of manpower the problem of cargo that needs to be loaded which would have to get moved to the next port also to be loaded and so on and on, you can't train crane operators in a few months nor can you install them that easy, let's not even talk about the depth of the port.

On the surface yeah, it's easy, do it but when you start crunching the numbers you will see how difficult it is.

[paxmao]

There is a huge backlog of work in the industry and most corporate client end organisations are pushing hard to get ahead in the current queue of delivery from suppliers, contractors and raw materials producers. The strain on the supply chain and the original producers is also funnelled into a clog of transportation by sea and, in many countries, by land.

My take, this will hurt the economy and last at least most 2022.

[beerlover]

First, how bad is inflation in your country..what % is it currently at?  (Here in the U.S. it's between 4-6% on average.  Many items have inflated much more such as seafood being around 20-30%)

Second, are you seeing supply chain issues in your country and how bad is it? (For example my favorite toilet paper has not been produced for well over a year now.  Recently my two favorite bags of chips have become unavailable from both supply chain issues and factories focusing on other items, putting them ahead of my FAVORITE damn chips lol).

This is quite similar to what we’re facing in my country as well, there have been an increase in the price of almost everything you can get in the market these days. And as for not finding things I need in the market, well I can find them but the problem that I’m having with most of them these days is that companies are beginning to reduce the number of items that were usually in their products they sell: take for example let’s say that you can buy a biscuit of $5 and see about four pieces of biscuits inside it, this time around if you buy that same biscuit you are going to see only three pieces inside it.

And the worst part of it is that even after they have decreased the number of items in that product, they will also increase the price as well which is really annoying. I just hope that things get better and not continue like this.

[Ultegra134]

I'd also like to note, despite not seeing any shortages or supply issues on most daily goods, I've faced multiple shortage issues when it comes to bicycle parts. I'm not sure what's exactly the case, my best guess would be the current supply can't keep up with the increased demand. However, this situation has been going on since the pandemic started.

Hasn't the increased demand pushed to a larger production, or is there a wider supply chain issue causing it?

[dkbit98]

I was looking to order one Raspberry Pi Zero for one of my DIY projects, and this device usually cost around $5, but I couldn't find it anywhere, it is either out of stock or it is 5 or 6 time more expensive.
More information and reports are showing that many microchips are also out of stock, and this is no affecting smartphones, computers, hardware wallets, mining hardware and every other electronic devices.
If you need any electronics parts my suggestion is to purchase them now and don't wait because I am hearing some news that it's going to get much worse in next few months.
We can live without microchips for sure, but now I am seeing that some postal service fees are going up almost 100% as well as essential food prices.

On Raspberry website they say this is all temporary but I am not so sure about that:
https://www.raspberrypi.com/news/supply-chain-shortages-and-our-first-ever-price-increase/

I noticed that Trezor hardware wallet increased the price for Trezor Model T and they also wrote about global chip shortage and how that affect hardware wallets:
https://blog.trezor.io/how-the-global-chip-shortage-affects-crypto-hardware-d391f0c90ff0

[LoyceV]

the problem that I’m having with most of them these days is that companies are beginning to reduce the number of items that were usually in their products they sell: take for example let’s say that you can buy a biscuit of $5 and see about four pieces of biscuits inside it, this time around if you buy that same biscuit you are going to see only three pieces inside it.

That's called Shrinkflation, and it's been happening for as long as I can remember. Once in a while there's a promo with bigger packaging, but overall sizes shrink.

Example: Mars went from 62.5 to 58 to 51 grams. It's amazing how marketing works:

Mars says it's to encourage people to eat more healthily

Lol. Now I eat 2 of them.

[dbc23]

The pandemic brought in lots of economic instability and cause a a heavy inflation in the price of local food stuffs. We used to have food stuffs and it's ingredients at a very cheap rate but after the outbreak of the pandemic everything went abnormal. Now an average man lives like below the standard meal. This also affected the raw materials for some local production of different commodities which had cause a reduction in both quantity and quality

[electronicash]

So much talk about inflation and hyperinflation. What's the urgency? Panic in the air? 


Or maybe just needing last resort buyers for grossly inflated assets? We will find out soon I guess.

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

its becoming interesting because just recently jack dorsey of twitter tweeted abiut hyperinflation is coming. with that people will really panic buy in stores.  there was already incident in the news i think it was in ohio where the people are ransacking a grocery store. and rich families are hiring security guards for themselves.

i dont know what goes on in USofA but soomeone's got to wake Biden up.

[Hydrogen]

Rumors from our suppliers that fertilizer will go through the roof, and then when it comes to food you're going to see all of them skyrocketing. It's simple, you use fertilizer at 300% and gas at 200% the price you must at 25% or you won't get even, you don't use them your production is cut by 4 or 5 times, and then the law of demand and offer kicks in.
Prepare for a food shock new year, if farmers can't get cheap fertilizer/gas/seed in the spring in autumn you'll see twice the price for everything.

Its been said the human population of the world didn't explode, until the vast number of uses of crude oil were discovered. Prior to this, the technology didn't exist to grow enough food to support a larger human population.

Fuel for transportation is one use. Fertilizer and pesticides are another. Gasoline, crop fertilizer and pesticides are all synthesized from crude oil.

Which can both simplify and complicate addressing the issues we face.

I would encourage everyone to begin searching for alternatives to anything oil based. Thanks to modern science, there are many alternatives available.

Don't expect oil prices to decline anytime soon to save us. It won't happen. In my opinion anyway.

[Ucy]

I'd also like to note, despite not seeing any shortages or supply issues on most daily goods, I've faced multiple shortage issues when it comes to bicycle parts. I'm not sure what's exactly the case, my best guess would be the current supply can't keep up with the increased demand. However, this situation has been going on since the pandemic started.

Hasn't the increased demand pushed to a larger production, or is there a wider supply chain issue causing it?

Consider the possibility that AI is making many mistakes, nature is becoming too unstable, things are moving out of course and are not easily predictable.
I don't think sticking to the "program" will solve this. You need competent humans to take charge

[stompix]

Example: Mars went from 62.5 to 58 to 51 grams. It's amazing how marketing works:

Mars says it's to encourage people to eat more healthily

Lol. Now I eat 2 of them.

And now both Snickers and Bounty come in a 3 pack or Trio where instead of two pieces you obviously have 3 but they went down to 37.5 grams while the standard size is not 50grams, so you're buying 3 but you get two.

I seriously think we need a damn standard when it comes to this shit, bring back the normal bottles, no 470ml, 235ml, 960ml, make it mandatory for all of them to use 250,500, and 1l. That's it, f* your design, f* your whatever, everyone stick to this.
Same for food items, If I go to Carrefour or Aldi I would probably be able to get every possible package in 5 grams increments.

The only good thing that happened lately is that because of an EU directive some have started showing the price per/kg in most of the EU, and to be honest, it's damn helpful, I was amazed once to look at two nearly identical in size pudding cups that were close in price and to see that in price per kilo was actually more expensive by 40%! A few cents there, a few grams less, and there you have it!

Hasn't the increased demand pushed to a larger production, or is there a wider supply chain issue causing it?

In order to produce more, you need more machines, in order to get more machines, the manufacturer needs more materials, to get more material you need more machines to process them. this is not a thing that can be overcome in a few months.

[Vatimins]

     It is bad for every country right now. That, I can assure you. And yes, I am also afraid of this growing and quite difficult to solve problems with inflation that the world is facing right now. This is the reason why I along with the growing number of people are turning into this industry to somehow protect ourselves from the impending catastrophe that's about to happen because this is not something that can be questioned if, but when. One way or another the people who fail to see the potential of this industry will suffer badly for their stubborness. I just hope by then it still won't be too late for them because everyone has different capabilities in terms of finances and other stuff.

[adaseb]

From what I heard, there most likely won’t be shortages of gifts on Christmas from retailers which everyone is expecting due to the cargo ship container delays. People are panicking and buying gifts now because they are worried that the shelves will be empty on Christmas shopping season. Some items might be sold out like PS5 but most items will be available.

Basically retailers prepared for this in advance and they are basically paying a premium to get their container ships delivered on time. One tire company did this and they basically had to pay $25000 extra to get the tires delivered. And what they did instead is just add the cost to the consumer. So basically there will be tires but $30 surcharge for all of them.

With retail it will be the same. There will be gifts but if they had to be imported there will be a mark up most likely and people will still pay it.

[Darker45]

My country's average inflation, at least as of August within this year, is still beyond the government's target of 2%-4%, with 4% being the worst. It still stands at 4.4%, with regions outside the capital having a higher inflation than the average.

Of course, the pandemic has caused the prices of public utility vehicle fares primarily due to the social distancing measure. Petroleum prices are also rising. That's another contributing factor to the fare hike. But it is generally beyond the control of the government since the global petroleum market is beyond the country's control.

In terms of food, the prices of fish, poultry, and livestock products have also risen a lot. The African Swine Flu has contributed largely to the crippling supply chain. The shortage of pork caused the price to rise, even affecting other meat products whose demand suddenly rise as well as people are looking for alternatives.

Sources:

1. https://www.rappler.com/business/inflation-rate-philippines-may-2021
2. https://psa.gov.ph/statistics/survey/price/summary-inflation-report-consumer-price-index-2012100-august-2021

[Poker Player]

In my case I have not noticed a lack of products that I usually use, but I have noticed a rise in prices, mainly in electricity and gasoline, not so much in food, but little by little it is noticeable. Although I was recently promoted at work and I have had a considerable payraise, so between that, Bitcoin and other investments I think I will be able to cope well with inflation.

I would like to remind everybody that this is a direct consequence of political decisions; it is not like an earthquake or a storm, that you can do nothing to avoid it.

[Victorycoin]

In the midst of an epidemic inflation prevailed over everything there is also a kind of inflation of expenditures as inflation, which is often caused by the state rising taxes often sharpen the problem of inflation with taxes aimed at covering the rising costs of arms management social programs the state. Keep in mind that tax rates increase production costs, so the rate level should be optimal. Inflation of every commodity also develops the whole system of controlling the market economy this automatically reduces the effectiveness of economic regulators often making their use impossible.