Going for the Underdog or Not?

[Silberman]

A recent upset just happened in boxing between Caraballo and Sultan.
The odds before the fight for Sultan was about 5.x, so Caraballo was the heavy favorite because he has 0-loss record.
So sometimes, it is really worth betting on underdog especially if you know the caliber of the underdog.
But I do agree, most of the time, bookies are giving odds based on the likelihood of the results.

Betting on the underdog can be profitable as most gamblers that are not professional go for the safer bet so the odds you are going to see many times for the underdog are more attractive than what they would be otherwise, however it also depends on the nature of the sport, it is more difficult for the underdog to win in a team game like soccer than in a sport like boxing in which the whole fight can change in a single instant because one of the fighters made a mistake.

[Fortify]

I'm not sure if this had been asked before. This is just an example of some odds that I saw recently Fighter A (1.30) vs Fighter B (3.65). With this obviously, Fighter A is the people's champ and Fighter B is the underdog. 

Regardless of who is bigger and undefeated record, let's say you have no idea who these fighters are because the names can't even be read like Ulshrkubyki vs Ykwehgyfvbh. If you only have $10 left in your sports betting account, would you go for the champ which you can only earn $3, or go for the underdog which if he got lucky can triple your money?

It's a common trap that many people fall into, trying to make long shot bets when the amount they have remaining dwindles to almost nothing. It's somewhat similar to owning a stock - the stock doesn't know that you own it, nor does the bet act in some special way to your advantage because one side is an "underdog". I don't know the exact breakdown for this bet, but looking at it as a percentage may help to understand the outcomes - it may be similar to a 20% chance of the underdog winning versus a 80% chance for the predicted winner. To me it seems clear what will happen and I'd rather take the slower but more guaranteed route than have a 20% chance of success - maybe that's why I'm a bad gambler.

[carlfebz2]

A recent upset just happened in boxing between Caraballo and Sultan.
The odds before the fight for Sultan was about 5.x, so Caraballo was the heavy favorite because he has 0-loss record.
So sometimes, it is really worth betting on underdog especially if you know the caliber of the underdog.
But I do agree, most of the time, bookies are giving odds based on the likelihood of the results.

Betting on the underdog can be profitable as most gamblers that are not professional go for the safer bet so the odds you are going to see many times for the underdog are more attractive than what they would be otherwise, however it also depends on the nature of the sport, it is more difficult for the underdog to win in a team game like soccer than in a sport like boxing in which the whole fight can change in a single instant because one of the fighters made a mistake.

When dealing up with betting or gambling itself then i dont really believe much when it comes to safer bet but talking about being less risky then favorites

would be you best bet but it wont really be giving out assurance on having a precise win thats why there would be lots of considerations first before

choosing an underdog.This isnt something that you could just place bet just because you do feel it to do so or you're just feeling lucky today.lol

[Smartvirus]

Bet is a probability kind of thing and can only come out in one way. Now, having a $10 balance on your account with the intentions of having an all in one stake is a high stake risk and in many ways, puts you in a position that, you don't need to fail on you predictions.

As discomforting as this position may be, it simply means, you've got to dig in on the sports, the athletes and there statistics. Putting your money on a high odd that comes with a low probability of success is not a strategy. It's better to be patient and gradually build than to loose all in one bet just because of some faith in the underdogs. Should my research statistics prove anything, I'm most likely to skip the underdogs on a bet.

[Fredomago]

Have tested out on making big bets with underdogs because there are times that some hunch or words in my mind that there's some chances to win and of course you would based up on past performances of the said underdog team which as a gambler or bettor then there are several factors which you do really need to consider up first before making out
some underdog bet consideration so its a personal choice but its good that you should really test out with small amounts and wont really be going all in.

Underdog who is performing well, oh yes it's not bad betting for them but with Op's case it's far different, he's betting with all hope that luck will be there since he never know who's the players are, he just chose to place his bet with the underdog thinking that if ever that he got his luck he will earn more.

I can say that if you have that time to analyze the game, and you see what are the performances of that so-called underdog.

It won't be hard to place your bet, still have that big risk, but you have some point that the team or player will win and deliver good
compensation with your bet.

[timerland]

Bet is a probability kind of thing and can only come out in one way. Now, having a $10 balance on your account with the intentions of having an all in one stake is a high stake risk and in many ways, puts you in a position that, you don't need to fail on you predictions.

As discomforting as this position may be, it simply means, you've got to dig in on the sports, the athletes and there statistics. Putting your money on a high odd that comes with a low probability of success is not a strategy. It's better to be patient and gradually build than to loose all in one bet just because of some faith in the underdogs. Should my research statistics prove anything, I'm most likely to skip the underdogs on a bet.

I think that it's probably not a bad strategy if it brings you entertainment.

Betting for the underdog can be extremely fun given the fact that your outcomes are precisely the opposite of everyone else's.

But at the end of the day, you're not going to achieve better outcomes in the long run by doing this. Your profits are going to be very similar to if you bet on random events or bet on the favourites, because betting markets are generally quite efficient.

[BitcoinAccepted]

If I have some spare amount and wanted to place bets of unknown matches? First thing I will do is to make a simple search on the internet about those two teams and probably watch a few games or highlights or previous data for both teams. It's free and well I don't want to place bets randomly even though it shows on the odds who has an advantage but it was an underdog and we are not sure what they are capable of.

[Ryker1]

If I have some spare amount and wanted to place bets of unknown matches? First thing I will do is to make a simple search on the internet about those two teams and probably watch a few games or highlights or previous data for both teams. It's free and well I don't want to place bets randomly even though it shows on the odds who has an advantage but it was an underdog and we are not sure what they are capable of.

Well it is always to have good research before you will place your bet either you will know each of them. Just like what happened in the lastest Pacquiao's fight, people are expected that the beast of the boxing industry will always win on the fight, but actually, it all depends on luck and the situation and the second option is what we called to them skills. Underdog does not mean that they don't have a chance to win, sometimes if they got lucky, they will also win against in the favor of odds.

[molsewid]

Well it is always to have good research before you will place your bet either you will know each of them. Just like what happened in the lastest Pacquiao's fight, people are expected that the beast of the boxing industry will always win on the fight, but actually, it all depends on luck and the situation and the second option is what we called to them skills. Underdog does not mean that they don't have a chance to win, sometimes if they got lucky, they will also win against in the favor of odds.

As a bettor we should always set consideration in any aspects of a fighter that you will going to place a bet with, assessing which are the advantages and disadvantages of a fighter would give you an idea which one would be worth to bet for. Like the recent fight of Pacquiao, we have a recent thread here that discussed the recent fight of this famous boxer one of the things that many bettors consider is the age of Pacquiao, also some of his past fights shows that his skills and speed slows down unlike the usual speed that made him known in this sport. Betting in underdog were risky but assessing the fighter will be a big help to made up a good decision of betting.

[Betwrong]

~
it's interesting how many of the principles from trading, investment and risk management can be applied to gambling

you'd never bet all you have on a fight or sports gambling, but betting <1% or even <0.0001% of what you have won't hurt at all and may be a good source of entertainment

That's what I'm saying all the time! First of all you should have fun with your gambling. Don't want your fun has turned into disaster? Make small bets. And if you are making pretty small bets already, why don't try to bet on the underdog then? Thus if you lose, you lose not that much, but if you win it's significant compared to your bet size. It's always a pleasure to win such bets.

[nakamura12]

Though there are different answers been given already but i'll share what I can share. To answer your question is to answer this question first. Why do you gamble?. If you can answer that then choosing between the fighters will be much less doubt on which side you will bet either the champ or the underdog. If you gamble for fun then losing $10 won't be a problem but if it tripled then you'll have more fun, thrill or whatever reason why you gamble.

[justdimin]

Other than personally knowing a player or patriotism, I could not figure out any other reason to bet on underdogs.

You nailed it. Personally no one might be having any other reason to go betting on underdog other than what you have mentioned. I am just seeing it is like you are getting rewards for your patriotism or for the faith you are showing on a player or team for whatever reasons.

Always betting on underdogs might lead to be losing all of our bankroll sooner or later. Or if you are making good rewards from your betting on underdogs then those player or team is no more underdog, right?

I am seeing betting on underdog and winning massive profits is similar to arbitrage opportunity in trading. very rare but we can enjoy decent profits.

[l3pox]

~
it's interesting how many of the principles from trading, investment and risk management can be applied to gambling

you'd never bet all you have on a fight or sports gambling, but betting <1% or even <0.0001% of what you have won't hurt at all and may be a good source of entertainment

That's what I'm saying all the time! First of all you should have fun with your gambling. Don't want your fun has turned into disaster? Make small bets. And if you are making pretty small bets already, why don't try to bet on the underdog then? Thus if you lose, you lose not that much, but if you win it's significant compared to your bet size. It's always a pleasure to win such bets.

totally agree
going for the underdog will by a high risk with higher reward play
maybe not the best one for those who get stressed out easily

would be curious to know if most gamblers do it to have fun or to make money
or both, maybe

[Zilon]

If I have some spare amount and wanted to place bets of unknown matches? First thing I will do is to make a simple search on the internet about those two teams and probably watch a few games or highlights or previous data for both teams. It's free and well I don't want to place bets randomly even though it shows on the odds who has an advantage but it was an underdog and we are not sure what they are capable of.

But Instead of risking all $10 on either the underdog nor the favorite athlete if I can't get quality statistics of both fighters I would rather split the $10 unevenly then bet on each fighter this way no matter the outcome I wouldn't be in total loss. Risking all $10 means the statistics of either fighter portrays strength for a sure win otherwise the sharing method is what I adopt

[finaleshot2016]

If I have some spare amount and wanted to place bets of unknown matches? First thing I will do is to make a simple search on the internet about those two teams and probably watch a few games or highlights or previous data for both teams. It's free and well I don't want to place bets randomly even though it shows on the odds who has an advantage but it was an underdog and we are not sure what they are capable of.

But Instead of risking all $10 on either the underdog nor the favorite athlete if I can't get quality statistics of both fighters I would rather split the $10 unevenly then bet on each fighter this way no matter the outcome I wouldn't be in total loss. Risking all $10 means the statistics of either fighter portrays strength for a sure win otherwise the sharing method is what I adopt

That is not always what a typical gambler does; no total loss is just not gaming. Some people will constantly take a risk in order to get a faster profit; this is natural in gambling because it is not gambling if there is no risk at all. But, yes, we all have different gambling tastes, and sometimes we need to play it cautious in order to keep our money.

[pawanjain]

If I have some spare amount and wanted to place bets of unknown matches? First thing I will do is to make a simple search on the internet about those two teams and probably watch a few games or highlights or previous data for both teams. It's free and well I don't want to place bets randomly even though it shows on the odds who has an advantage but it was an underdog and we are not sure what they are capable of.

But Instead of risking all $10 on either the underdog nor the favorite athlete if I can't get quality statistics of both fighters I would rather split the $10 unevenly then bet on each fighter this way no matter the outcome I wouldn't be in total loss. Risking all $10 means the statistics of either fighter portrays strength for a sure win otherwise the sharing method is what I adopt

There are times when we play for fun and there are times when we play to win and both of them have their own specifications.
I use the same strategy whenever I play to win and divide my amount such that whatever range I put in gets me total profit.
The rest of the times when I play for fun I go all in and risk it all in a single bet.
So it actually depends on what our priorities are.

[Peanutswar]

It's more ideal it happens on sports game bet, this kind of bet always happen fighting player against the underdog some people think it's already a win-win situation but again it's sports anything can happen no one knows that an underdog can win the game looks like a high risk-reward sometimes people. makes a YOLO bet or betting to underdogs just to risk and double up their money. But again not all the time it happens so there is a chance people will choose up the secured bet which is on the side of the higher chance to win.

[mindrust]

When they mess up though, they usually cancel the bets on that game. I have seen it before. Every once is a while you get lucky and get away with it but if the bookie was losing big amounts because of that bag, they can always cancel the bets and say that it is their right to do so. They are not in the money losing business in the end. The players are.

Yes, I also saw this sometimes, but usually it happens even before the start of the fight, since the bookmakers see a big imbalance in the bets and do not want to take risks (suspecting a contractual fight or something like that). But these are the rarest events compared to the total number of fights. We can assume that bookmakers rarely make mistakes. Or they understand that the frequent cancellation of accepted bets will scare betters away.

True. If they were doing these mistakes constantly, they wouldn't have that business going for a long time. The thing is, there are many casinos which take their data from many different data providers. So it is not like there is only one casino/data provider which calculates the odds of every game there is. There are multiple sources which makes the players' job easier if they want to find those "odd" games.

That's also why arbitrage betting is not allowed on casinos. They don't want you to look for these mistakes.

[Hamphser]

~
it's interesting how many of the principles from trading, investment and risk management can be applied to gambling

you'd never bet all you have on a fight or sports gambling, but betting <1% or even <0.0001% of what you have won't hurt at all and may be a good source of entertainment

That's what I'm saying all the time! First of all you should have fun with your gambling. Don't want your fun has turned into disaster? Make small bets. And if you are making pretty small bets already, why don't try to bet on the underdog then? Thus if you lose, you lose not that much, but if you win it's significant compared to your bet size. It's always a pleasure to win such bets.

Not only to be a disaster but rather a frustrating and a stressful kind of game which gambling shouldnt really be on this way or like this way because we do

make bets for entertainment but well its unavoidable on not to have those kind of reactions because we do really lost up money which it is understandable

on having those kind of reactions since we are just human beings so those reactions are really pretty normal but not how it should be.

[worldofcoins]

If you only have $10 left in your sports betting account, would you go for the champ which you can only earn $3, or go for the underdog which if he got lucky can triple your money?

First if you are not certain about the Fighters, you do your research and check statistics from their very recent encounters, before you place your bet. You check their preparations for the encounter. Fighter A the champ may just be an overhyped fighter with old glory, who may loose as a result of underestimating the underdog, who in some cases train very hard and when they are out to fight, you see the hunger in them to win. I am a risk take plus I like big wins, i may decide to risk it and bet on the underdog knowing a win will bring big profit.

I think there could be youtube videos of those fighters, of them, saying how hard they worked for the match, etc.

Also as Ruchi mentioned their statistics speak a lot.
Today for example is the game of DWG vs EDG in LoL worlds.
DWG here has been undefeated till now and has also Defeated T1 which was superior to EDG (Statistically speaking).
So there's a good chance DWG will win this and the odds for DWG are around 1.3x