-snip-
SD standards-based memory cards, like most semiconductor cards, store information in flash memory. The current technology along with normal usage typically gives the card a
lifespan of 10 years or more, allowing consumers to upgrade their devices for many years and reduce consumer electronic waste. Source :
https://www.sdcard.org/consumers/faq/I believe the statement "
along with normal usage" indicates that it's based from a scenario when the flash drive is constantly being used to delete & copy files.
For cold storage purposes, the flash drive wont even be used so it wont "
write" any more data so it should last longer than that.
For example, I have a dormant USB2.0 thumb drive from 9 years ago and the contents are still intact time I tried, guess it will be broken by the next year :D
Of course having multiple backup in different portable drives as a failsafe is recommended.