Bitcoin price: with 12 years from nothing to maturity

[JaanusRaim]

It is interesting to look at this zodiac circle:

31.10.2009 0.001 usd
31.10.2010 0.20 usd (+ 200 times), Tiger, red
31.10.2011 3.19 usd (+ 15.95 times), Rabbit, green
31.10.2012 11.20 usd (+ 3.51 times), Dragon, yellow
31.10.2013 216.00 usd (+ 19.29 times), Snake, blue
31.10.2014 348.67 usd (+ 1.61 times), Horse, black
31.10.2015 311.24 usd (+ 0.89 times), Sheep, white
31.10.2016 686.24 usd (+ 2.20 times), Monkey, grey
31.10.2017 5734.00 usd (+ 8.36 times), Rooster, brown
31.10.2018 6309.11 usd (+ 1.10 times), Dog, purple
31.10.2019 9550.60 usd (+ 1.51 times), Pig, pink
31.10.2020 13803.41 usd (+ 1.45 times), Rat, orange
31.10.2021 61343.90 usd (+ 4.44 times), Ox, beige.

Every year is unique, and they together form almost eight orders of magnitude (100 000 000 times) increases (+4.5 times or +350% per year, on average). The maximum rise potential from 0.001 usd is ca nine orders of magnitude (1 000 000 000 times) in nowadays purchasing power because there is no more money in the world 

I think, one thing is sure:
Bitcoin price has no potential to rise more than approximately one order of magnitude (10  times). The maximum price can not significantly exceed 1 000 000 dollars per bitcoin in nowadays purchasing power even with best scenario (mass adoption, becoming the currency of the world). We can say that bitcoin price has achieved (almost) full maturity in just 12 years - eight from nine orders of magnitude.
This means that there will be no price gain per year comparable to 2020-2021 (or the 2009-2021 average) without huge price crash - no room for 300% or higher price rises per year (in nowadays purchasing power) from present level.

[1715311702]

1715311702

[1715311702]

1715311702

[1715311702]

1715311702

[1715311702]

1715311702

[davis196]

Are you an astrology expert or something?
I've never seen someone to make analysis of the Bitcoin price based on zodiac signs.
We already know that it is almost impossible for the Bitcoin price to hit 1 million dollars.You just need common sense and basic understanding of economy and finance.There's no need to be expert in astrology or numerology in order see this conclusion.
Why don't you create a horoscope for Bitcoin?That would be interesting.
I guess that the future of Bitcoin is aligned by the stars.Everything is determined and we are all a bunch of puppets that have no agency and autonomy.The stars are what controls our lives,so we have to trust the astrologists more than any other experts and scientists.

[buwaytress]

Way to trick me into reading pseudo-astro-TA by leaving it out of the title ha!

What's interesting, from my own pseudo-familiarity of that calendar:
1. The first cycle happened in the year of the Tiger. Typically the year of maximum economic spurt. But because the tiger is cruel and forceful, the boom must come at the expense of others. A new cycles looms every 12 years... the next Tiger comes Feb next year, a few months from now. Here's the caveat: it's the water element, so it's the most sedate of the tigers.

2. The monkey is supposed to be chaos, neither good nor bad, but extremes in either way. 2016 was pretty benign in this regard.

Perhaps this, indeed, is the full maturity of Bitcoin. I don't think so though. Many surprises unseen en route.

[adaseb]

I never traded using astrology either however if you guys are ever on crypto Twitter there is some girl there which made tons of money trading Bitcoin using astrology. No idea if it’s real because it’s possible she could of deleted some of her unsuccessful predictions however some of them turned out to be true.

She didn’t necessarily predict a price or a direction but she would give a date, like 6 months into the future and on that particular day Bitcoin either had a huge bullish or bearish day. And it was exactly on that day that she predicted. No idea if it was just luck but maybe astrology has something to do with trading.

[kanayaTabitha]

Reaching 1 mil per bitcoin seems impossible for next year because the marketcap won't be have so much gain to reach that price, it only could happen if the big world leaders promotes bitcoin to their country but it's something that sounds impossible to happen.

Having an astrology analysis to bitcoin price is quite interesting though. I don't know what is behind it and how the analysis goes but you should put 1 or 2 years ahead you predict price so it will be more quite interesting.
You could also do it with alts and create a continous thread, i'm sure many people will watch it 

[pooya87]

Reaching 1 mil per bitcoin seems impossible for next year because the marketcap won't be have so much gain to reach that price, it only could happen if the big world leaders promotes bitcoin to their country but it's something that sounds impossible to happen.

Market cap means absolutely nothing and whatever number it shows is not an indication of what the price can or can not be. Not to mention that people were saying the exact same thing as you are saying to day back in 2016 when price was $600. They said it is impossible for price to reach something like $20k because the market cap will be huge!!! And yet bitcoin reached $20k and now it has surpassed $60k too without needing any big "world leaders" promoting it or anything crazy like that!

[RealMalatesta]

It is interesting to look at this zodiac circle:
<snip>

What kind of astrology is this? A Chinese's one? Because, I heard their astrology is basically based on animals. How often this will repeat? For example, the first one (tiger, red) will come again or not? If it will come again means after how many other phases?

I always welcome different interpretations and perspectives and this time you have brought up astrology based one. The only thing, you must have included is some reference link, I really want to check and project these into the near future because like most others here, I am too keen on knowing the future rather than just getting know about the past.

I've never seen someone to make analysis of the Bitcoin price based on zodiac signs.

I have seen people were predicting bullion markets based on moon signs. Not common everywhere but few signal providers include moon signs to justify/support their predictions.

[JaanusRaim]

Are you an astrology expert or something?
I've never seen someone to make analysis of the Bitcoin price based on zodiac signs.
We already know that it is almost impossible for the Bitcoin price to hit 1 million dollars.You just need common sense and basic understanding of economy and finance.There's no need to be expert in astrology or numerology in order see this conclusion.
Why don't you create a horoscope for Bitcoin?That would be interesting.
I guess that the future of Bitcoin is aligned by the stars.Everything is determined and we are all a bunch of puppets that have no agency and autonomy.The stars are what controls our lives,so we have to trust the astrologists more than any other experts and scientists.

I have to say, I used zodiac signs and colors only as a metaphor here - to make more easy to remember these years and think about them. Another metaphor could be the human life circle: saying that bitcoin becomes teenager.
Really I do not think that bitcoin starts to behave differently because of its "teen years".

The only reason I afraid the hodl model (that has excellelntly worked until now) will no longer succeed, is the maturity problem - the one million usd per bitcoin is already near enough to hinder profits of hodl-model.
 

[Evgenklm]

How painful it is to look at the price below $ 1 for bitcoin and now I open CMC and just can't believe that the price is more than $ 60 thousand. The author is right that bitcoin may well rise to unthinkable and astronomical values, it only takes time.

[wxa7115]

Reaching 1 mil per bitcoin seems impossible for next year because the marketcap won't be have so much gain to reach that price, it only could happen if the big world leaders promotes bitcoin to their country but it's something that sounds impossible to happen.

Market cap means absolutely nothing and whatever number it shows is not an indication of what the price can or can not be. Not to mention that people were saying the exact same thing as you are saying to day back in 2016 when price was $600. They said it is impossible for price to reach something like $20k because the market cap will be huge!!! And yet bitcoin reached $20k and now it has surpassed $60k too without needing any big "world leaders" promoting it or anything crazy like that!

Agreed, when it comes to bitcoin it is better to let those thoughts behind us because the whole history of bitcoin is full of a bunch of things that bitcoin was not supposed to do and that it did anyway.

Bitcoin could or could not reach that price in the future but to categorically say that it will not happen is a mistake, especially when the price is not so far away, everything will depend on how high the price goes up during this cycle, if we reach something like 200k then one million could be possible during the next cycle but if it is closer to 100k then we may need two bull cycles before we could see that price.

[TimeTeller]

Reaching 1 mil per bitcoin seems impossible for next year because the marketcap won't be have so much gain to reach that price, it only could happen if the big world leaders promotes bitcoin to their country but it's something that sounds impossible to happen.

Market cap means absolutely nothing and whatever number it shows is not an indication of what the price can or can not be. Not to mention that people were saying the exact same thing as you are saying to day back in 2016 when price was $600. They said it is impossible for price to reach something like $20k because the market cap will be huge!!! And yet bitcoin reached $20k and now it has surpassed $60k too without needing any big "world leaders" promoting it or anything crazy like that!

Agreed, when it comes to bitcoin it is better to let those thoughts behind us because the whole history of bitcoin is full of a bunch of things that bitcoin was not supposed to do and that it did anyway.

Bitcoin could or could not reach that price in the future but to categorically say that it will not happen is a mistake, especially when the price is not so far away, everything will depend on how high the price goes up during this cycle, if we reach something like 200k then one million could be possible during the next cycle but if it is closer to 100k then we may need two bull cycles before we could see that price.

Anything is possible but sometimes we need to be realistic in looking at how things will come into fruition.
Because some people will have high expectations and if those expectations are not met, usually, they will spread fud in the market.
But what bitcoin achieved up to this day, is really considered a very big milestone for crypto history.
We can't really say impossible these days, but be conservative as we are talking tons of money here.
It is good to be optimistic with the market, but we also need to consider the reality of things so we will not get disappointed.

[darkangelosme]

It is interesting to look at this zodiac circle:

31.10.2009 0.001 usd
31.10.2010 0.20 usd (+ 200 times), Tiger, red
31.10.2011 3.19 usd (+ 15.95 times), Rabbit, green
31.10.2012 11.20 usd (+ 3.51 times), Dragon, yellow
31.10.2013 216.00 usd (+ 19.29 times), Snake, blue
31.10.2014 348.67 usd (+ 1.61 times), Horse, black
31.10.2015 311.24 usd (+ 0.89 times), Sheep, white
31.10.2016 686.24 usd (+ 2.20 times), Monkey, grey
31.10.2017 5734.00 usd (+ 8.36 times), Rooster, brown
31.10.2018 6309.11 usd (+ 1.10 times), Dog, purple
31.10.2019 9550.60 usd (+ 1.51 times), Pig, pink
31.10.2020 13803.41 usd (+ 1.45 times), Rat, orange
31.10.2021 61343.90 usd (+ 4.44 times), Ox, beige.

Every year is unique, and they together form almost eight orders of magnitude (100 000 000 times) increases (+4.5 times or +350% per year, on average). The maximum rise potential from 0.001 usd is ca nine orders of magnitude (1 000 000 000 times) in nowadays purchasing power because there is no more money in the world 

I think, one thing is sure:
Bitcoin price has no potential to rise more than approximately one order of magnitude (10  times). The maximum price can not significantly exceed 1 000 000 dollars per bitcoin in nowadays purchasing power even with best scenario (mass adoption, becoming the currency of the world). We can say that bitcoin price has achieved (almost) full maturity in just 12 years - eight from nine orders of magnitude.
This means that there will be no price gain per year comparable to 2020-2021 (or the 2009-2021 average) without huge price crash - no room for 300% or higher price rises per year (in nowadays purchasing power) from present level.

That is the reason many people see Bitcoin as an investment cause it is increasing year by year and surely you can have profit for sure, we're not be surprised if Bitcoin will reach 1,000,000 USD someday.

[cabron]

12 years only, that's how much it grew. It may not even be the mature price, it still can grow.

But BTC had been crashing over and over. Its been buried several times as we see there are obituaries of it. There will be another when it's going to dip once again but every time there is a dip, it gives another room for growth. The room is all because of its scarcity of BTC, there is nothing like that because GOLD is can be suppressed by regulators and the big institutions.

[Poker Player]

I, although I find astrology silly, like all superstitions, find the analysis you make amusing.

The maximum price can not significantly exceed 1 000 000 dollars per bitcoin in nowadays purchasing power even with best scenario (mass adoption, becoming the currency of the world). We can say that bitcoin price has achieved (almost) full maturity in just 12 years - eight from nine orders of magnitude.
This means that there will be no price gain per year comparable to 2020-2021 (or the 2009-2021 average) without huge price crash - no room for 300% or higher price rises per year (in nowadays purchasing power) from present level.

Regarding this point, I disagree. As poyaa87 points out, the same was said before, and it is obvious that there has to be a limit just as it is logical that the returns are lower as the price and market cap grows, as you very well point out, but if you take into account that the global total wealth is $420T and Bitcoin currently has only $1T of market cap, it is clear that it can make more than 20x which is the limit you put.

[aoluain]

There are many who think there is no limit to how Bitcoin can climb price wise.
Bitcoin is still in its infancy and can attract much more attention, I posted before
that there are only going to be 21,000,000 coins, its limited and people in general
have yet to wake up to the benefits it offers and its superiority to any other investment.

31.10.2009 0.001 usd
31.10.2010 0.20 usd (+ 200 times), Tiger, red
31.10.2011 3.19 usd (+ 15.95 times), Rabbit, green
31.10.2012 11.20 usd (+ 3.51 times), Dragon, yellow
31.10.2013 216.00 usd (+ 19.29 times), Snake, blue
31.10.2014 348.67 usd (+ 1.61 times), Horse, black
31.10.2015 311.24 usd (+ 0.89 times), Sheep, white
31.10.2016 686.24 usd (+ 2.20 times), Monkey, grey
31.10.2017 5734.00 usd (+ 8.36 times), Rooster, brown
31.10.2018 6309.11 usd (+ 1.10 times), Dog, purple
31.10.2019 9550.60 usd (+ 1.51 times), Pig, pink
31.10.2020 13803.41 usd (+ 1.45 times), Rat, orange
31.10.2021 61343.90 usd (+ 4.44 times), Ox, beige.

These numbers are very interesting but the reference to the animals and colours
is irrelevant really.

[beerlover]

BTC had been crashing over and over. Its been buried several times as we see there are obituaries of it. There will be another when it's going to dip once again but every time there is a dip, it gives another room for growth. The room is all because of its scarcity of BTC, there is nothing like that because GOLD is can be suppressed by regulators and the big institutions.

Corrections are part of every market; if you have noticed even centralized stock or government's bonds are finding big dips time to time for various reasons (change in policy or profit booking or etc). So, there will be no wonder that bitcoin got crashed many time in the past and it may face again in near future as well but we can ignore all these as overall trend is positive.

Limited supply must be the core reason why we are having bitcoin at current levels. Still, we cannot ignore its community. Stronger community must have been playing support role like people were continuing their holding even among big crashes. These 12 years are just a starting phase, we need to enter into phase only here after where recognizing by governments might be playing vital role.

[Kasabus]

12 years only, that's how much it grew. It may not even be the mature price, it still can grow.

But BTC had been crashing over and over. Its been buried several times as we see there are obituaries of it. There will be another when it's going to dip once again but every time there is a dip, it gives another room for growth. The room is all because of its scarcity of BTC, there is nothing like that because GOLD is can be suppressed by regulators and the big institutions.

Bitcoin has gone so far and i don't even know if bitcoin will certainly mature or how far its maturity price will be. As long as its making significant price growth from time to time, despite of the inevitable occurrence of price corrections, then it will be very good to see. However, it doesn't cross my mind that astrology is something to do with bitcoin price movement. Well, if it really does, then i think its good as we have more other bases now for price prediction. One thing i am certain, as long as its adoption continues and never stops, then we will witness more price increase in the coming days and months.

[romero121]

This thread gives the best of the value difference between years. The same level of variation could happen after years. After this same time period we can see similar level of growth. The same is being mentioned through a small meme post.

[STT]

12 years is a long time, during this time the Dollar has not stayed as one but now is a lesser version of its previous self.   The US dollar of 2009 is not the US dollar of 2021, we dont live in that fixed value world anymore.

Bitcoin price has no potential to rise more than approximately one order of magnitude

dont place any limits on BTC when we lack that certainity in any regard

[yhiaali3]

Beautiful astronomical statistics on Chinese towers, of course you will not find much of those who believe in Chinese astronomical towers but we can say through this statistic that it is fun to see bitcoin develops a small child until he becomes great tendon in the world of money and economy, Bitcoin is the big master now but it did not Up to maturity until this moment.
For the Bitcoin price is very possible to see it at  1 million$ in the future but I personally do not wish it because at that time will become a dream that is difficult to get, and then has arrived at the mission and started the stage of loss and fading.