Decision Time for Bitcoin Dominance?

[dragonvslinux]

BTC dominance (BTC.D) looks to be at a crucial value. Currently at the VPVR (volume) point of control from the past 6 months data, as well in between the 50 & 200 Day MAs. Notably the 50 MA is rising (short-term bullish) while the 200 MA is declining (long-term bearish). While it has twice found support from 40% levels, it has also twice been rejected from a previous long-term support trend-line (now resistance).



While looking bearish on the Weekly time-frame with the 50 MA continuing to decline, there are some bullish factors to consider. There is bullish divergence on the RSI & CMF, as well as most notably the 200 Week MA has now stopped declining, for the first time ever. The last 200 Weekly candles takes us back to January 2018, when dominance was previously at 40%, hence it is currently at 57%, in between the 40-70% range as well as now no longer with a bearish bias. Despite BTC dominance below below it, as well as the 50 Week MA.



Personally I'm feeling slightly bearish on altcoins for the reason above and have taken considerable profits over the past 6 months, after the initial rally of altcoin dominance from 40% to 60%. Many analysts remain bullish on altcoins outperforming Bitcoin, while others remain sceptical, waiting for a break below 40% for further confirmation, or potentially continued rejection from the 200 Day MA in the shorter term.

Another consideration is that when Bitcoin moved from $10K to $30K, it's dominance also rose from 60% to 70%. Similarly, the recovery from $40-60K also saw a rise in dominance from 40% to 50%. Additionally, towards the end of 2017, after a 6 month altcoins season, Bitcoin's dominance increased from 50% to 70% while it's moved from $5K to $20K.

Data from Blockchain Center otherwise calculates 47% altseason, ie 53% Bitcoin season, confirming indecision in the market right now.

Please bare in mind, this speculation has nothing to do with the value of altcoins to fiat currency, only in comparison to Bitcoin.

Do you think Bitcoin dominance will continue to decline in the near future, or is due a bounce back to 50-60%, where the 50 & 200 Weekly MAs lies, as well as resistance level?

[timerland]

I do think that BTC dominance will fluctuate around 40-50%.

The crypto space is going to get larger over time with a lot more projects in total, but at the end of the day the consensus is that crypto investors treat BTC as a store of value of sorts.

The utility of bitcoin is therefore unhindered with the majority of new projects, who primarily take market cap away from things like ETH and BNB instead.

[mindrust]

Of course it is bound to decline in the long term. That is inevitable because you can create as many alts as you want and some people will always search for the next big thing which means the interest for alts will never completely vanish.

From an investor's perspective, buying some promising shitcoin while its marketcap very low makes more sense than buying the market leader. You can lose money too but if you guess right it will make much more lie x100, x1000 returns.