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Author Topic: what is data size of a transaction?  (Read 471 times)
LoyceV
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January 02, 2022, 08:34:48 AM
Merited by o_e_l_e_o (4), pooya87 (3), ABCbits (3)
 #21

Meanwhile, unless the pool controls nearly half of the entire world's hashpower, the chances that they will solve the next 3 blocks in a row before the rest of the world succesfully solves 3 blocks are very very slim.
This got me curious: how often has it happened? At Bitcoin block data available in CSV format, I have Blockchair.com's guessed_miner data (with 36% Unknown).
I checked (from yesterday's data) how many times a known guessed mining pool mined more than one block in a row:
10 blocks in a row: once.
9 blocks in a row: once.
8 blocks in a row: 4 times.
7 blocks in a row: 13 times.
6 blocks in a row: 60 times.
5 blocks in a row: 234 times.
4 blocks in a row: 1033 times.
3 blocks in a row: 5392 times.
2 blocks in a row: 35045 times.

Code:
occurrence: block-range guessed_miner
10: 308424-308433 GHash.IO
9: 299449-299457 GHash.IO
8: 414125-414132 F2Pool
8: 305003-305010 GHash.IO
8: 303131-303138 GHash.IO
8: 303107-303114 GHash.IO
7: 715912-715918 F2Pool
7: 578401-578407 BTC.com
7: 522022-522028 BTC.com
7: 509782-509788 BTC.com
7: 508731-508737 BTC.com
7: 414688-414694 F2Pool
7: 412349-412355 F2Pool
7: 403771-403777 AntPool
7: 391394-391400 AntPool
7: 349830-349836 AntPool
7: 308180-308186 GHash.IO
7: 305153-305159 GHash.IO
7: 284432-284438 GHash.IO
6: 707977-707982 F2Pool
6: 706455-706460 AntPool
6: 680586-680591 AntPool
6: 658974-658979 F2Pool
6: 630804-630809 F2Pool
6: 630266-630271 F2Pool
6: 525832-525837 BTC.com
6: 524568-524573 AntPool
6: 522065-522070 BTC.com
6: 516800-516805 BTC.com
6: 514250-514255 BTC.com
6: 500800-500805 AntPool
6: 495737-495742 AntPool
6: 480198-480203 AntPool
6: 476916-476921 AntPool
6: 432537-432542 AntPool
6: 419118-419123 BW.COM
6: 414777-414782 F2Pool
6: 410351-410356 F2Pool
6: 409903-409908 AntPool
6: 402257-402262 AntPool
6: 397804-397809 F2Pool
6: 396191-396196 F2Pool
6: 383310-383315 AntPool
6: 383069-383074 F2Pool
6: 373894-373899 AntPool
6: 369377-369382 AntPool
6: 332841-332846 GHash.IO
6: 330193-330198 F2Pool
6: 326306-326311 F2Pool
6: 316569-316574 GHash.IO
6: 316512-316517 GHash.IO
6: 314858-314863 GHash.IO
6: 311072-311077 GHash.IO
6: 308892-308897 GHash.IO
6: 307634-307639 GHash.IO
6: 307509-307514 GHash.IO
6: 306597-306602 GHash.IO
6: 306505-306510 GHash.IO
6: 305487-305492 GHash.IO
6: 305479-305484 GHash.IO
6: 304605-304610 GHash.IO
6: 303980-303985 GHash.IO
6: 303485-303490 GHash.IO
6: 303152-303157 GHash.IO
6: 302543-302548 GHash.IO
6: 301403-301408 GHash.IO
6: 301356-301361 GHash.IO
6: 294369-294374 GHash.IO
6: 290653-290658 GHash.IO
6: 286954-286959 Eligius
6: 286150-286155 GHash.IO
6: 281134-281139 GHash.IO
6: 278970-278975 GHash.IO
6: 278310-278315 GHash.IO
6: 276090-276095 GHash.IO
6: 273238-273243 GHash.IO
6: 261362-261367 GHash.IO
6: 260899-260904 50BTC
6: 224466-224471 OzCoin
5: 710573-710577 ViaBTC
5: 704378-704382 F2Pool
5: 704051-704055 AntPool
5: 697769-697773 AntPool
5: 686618-686622 Poolin
5: 674320-674324 F2Pool
5: 671680-671684 F2Pool
5: 664892-664896 Binance
5: 662149-662153 F2Pool
5: 655986-655990 F2Pool
5: 645666-645670 F2Pool
5: 634068-634072 F2Pool
5: 624578-624582 F2Pool
5: 621569-621573 F2Pool
5: 617204-617208 Poolin
5: 613750-613754 BTC.com
5: 612276-612280 F2Pool
5: 611449-611453 F2Pool
5: 604445-604449 BTC.com
5: 601322-601326 F2Pool
5: 597549-597553 F2Pool
5: 588024-588028 BTC.com
5: 587176-587180 BTC.com
5: 585644-585648 BTC.com
5: 583194-583198 BTC.com
5: 565462-565466 F2Pool
5: 564965-564969 AntPool
5: 553993-553997 SlushPool
5: 545505-545509 BTC.com
5: 545270-545274 F2Pool
5: 541302-541306 BTC.com
5: 540394-540398 SlushPool
5: 536337-536341 AntPool
5: 535142-535146 BTC.com
5: 529863-529867 F2Pool
5: 529572-529576 BTC.com
5: 529520-529524 BTC.com
5: 527215-527219 BTC.com
5: 518347-518351 BTC.com
5: 515563-515567 BTC.TOP
5: 512686-512690 BTC.com
5: 512323-512327 BTC.com
5: 510842-510846 BTC.com
5: 510656-510660 BTC.com
5: 510461-510465 BTC.com
5: 509274-509278 BTC.com
5: 507117-507121 BTC.com
5: 503611-503615 BTC.com
5: 502337-502341 AntPool
5: 499301-499305 AntPool
5: 498580-498584 SlushPool
5: 498304-498308 BTC.com
5: 497630-497634 BTC.com
5: 494866-494870 ViaBTC
5: 489575-489579 AntPool
5: 476752-476756 AntPool
5: 476159-476163 AntPool
5: 473231-473235 BTC.TOP
5: 468672-468676 BTC.TOP
5: 463832-463836 F2Pool
5: 450171-450175 AntPool
5: 448745-448749 AntPool
5: 448564-448568 AntPool
5: 445890-445894 AntPool
5: 445530-445534 AntPool
5: 444662-444666 AntPool
5: 444318-444322 AntPool
5: 440323-440327 AntPool
5: 437032-437036 F2Pool
5: 436685-436689 BW.COM
5: 428491-428495 BW.COM
5: 425865-425869 F2Pool
5: 423331-423335 F2Pool
5: 421067-421071 AntPool
5: 418741-418745 AntPool
5: 418664-418668 F2Pool
5: 418510-418514 F2Pool
5: 417266-417270 F2Pool
5: 416487-416491 F2Pool
5: 415872-415876 AntPool
5: 415151-415155 F2Pool
5: 414825-414829 F2Pool
5: 413884-413888 F2Pool
5: 412838-412842 F2Pool
5: 412178-412182 AntPool
5: 412056-412060 AntPool
5: 411718-411722 F2Pool
5: 411194-411198 F2Pool
5: 410922-410926 AntPool
5: 409897-409901 AntPool
5: 409635-409639 F2Pool
5: 409278-409282 AntPool
5: 408624-408628 AntPool
5: 408308-408312 F2Pool
5: 407627-407631 F2Pool
5: 407206-407210 AntPool
5: 407000-407004 AntPool
5: 406547-406551 AntPool
5: 405426-405430 AntPool
5: 405209-405213 F2Pool
5: 404133-404137 AntPool
5: 403183-403187 AntPool
5: 402677-402681 F2Pool
5: 402625-402629 AntPool
5: 402481-402485 AntPool
5: 401754-401758 F2Pool
5: 400218-400222 AntPool
5: 398530-398534 AntPool
5: 393485-393489 AntPool
5: 393435-393439 AntPool
5: 393102-393106 AntPool
5: 392764-392768 F2Pool
5: 391689-391693 F2Pool
5: 387574-387578 AntPool
5: 386776-386780 F2Pool
5: 386454-386458 F2Pool
5: 385662-385666 F2Pool
5: 384532-384536 F2Pool
5: 382076-382080 BitFury
5: 381855-381859 F2Pool
5: 381439-381443 F2Pool
5: 379132-379136 F2Pool
5: 375885-375889 BitFury
5: 374286-374290 F2Pool
5: 371745-371749 F2Pool
5: 370875-370879 BitFury
5: 369435-369439 F2Pool
5: 367246-367250 AntPool
5: 362535-362539 F2Pool
5: 361702-361706 F2Pool
5: 359438-359442 AntPool
5: 359179-359183 AntPool
5: 357438-357442 F2Pool
5: 352616-352620 F2Pool
5: 350260-350264 BW.COM
5: 350160-350164 F2Pool
5: 350088-350092 F2Pool
5: 348635-348639 F2Pool
5: 338127-338131 F2Pool
5: 336817-336821 F2Pool
5: 336012-336016 F2Pool
5: 333753-333757 F2Pool
5: 333727-333731 F2Pool
5: 332608-332612 F2Pool
5: 331608-331612 F2Pool
5: 330971-330975 F2Pool
5: 329689-329693 F2Pool
5: 328608-328612 F2Pool
5: 328246-328250 GHash.IO
5: 328118-328122 F2Pool
5: 327687-327691 F2Pool
5: 325682-325686 F2Pool
5: 322346-322350 GHash.IO
5: 321006-321010 GHash.IO
5: 320350-320354 F2Pool
5: 317892-317896 F2Pool
5: 316501-316505 GHash.IO
5: 314391-314395 GHash.IO
5: 312959-312963 GHash.IO
5: 312188-312192 GHash.IO
5: 312055-312059 GHash.IO
5: 311481-311485 F2Pool
5: 311393-311397 GHash.IO
5: 311286-311290 GHash.IO
5: 309189-309193 F2Pool
5: 309036-309040 GHash.IO
5: 307798-307802 GHash.IO
5: 307710-307714 GHash.IO
5: 307517-307521 GHash.IO
5: 307121-307125 GHash.IO
5: 307039-307043 GHash.IO
5: 306964-306968 GHash.IO
5: 306457-306461 GHash.IO
5: 306125-306129 GHash.IO
5: 305854-305858 GHash.IO
5: 305420-305424 GHash.IO
5: 305195-305199 GHash.IO
5: 304654-304658 GHash.IO
5: 304587-304591 GHash.IO
5: 304422-304426 GHash.IO
5: 304333-304337 GHash.IO
5: 304194-304198 GHash.IO
5: 304179-304183 GHash.IO
5: 303993-303997 GHash.IO
5: 302970-302974 GHash.IO
5: 302476-302480 GHash.IO
5: 302322-302326 GHash.IO
5: 302036-302040 GHash.IO
5: 302030-302034 GHash.IO
5: 301935-301939 GHash.IO
5: 301681-301685 GHash.IO
5: 299784-299788 GHash.IO
5: 299338-299342 GHash.IO
5: 296778-296782 GHash.IO
5: 296221-296225 GHash.IO
5: 292121-292125 GHash.IO
5: 291994-291998 GHash.IO
5: 290890-290894 GHash.IO
5: 290616-290620 GHash.IO
5: 289528-289532 GHash.IO
5: 289210-289214 GHash.IO
5: 288676-288680 GHash.IO
5: 288574-288578 GHash.IO
5: 288297-288301 GHash.IO
5: 287703-287707 GHash.IO
5: 287459-287463 GHash.IO
5: 286364-286368 GHash.IO
5: 285322-285326 GHash.IO
5: 285191-285195 GHash.IO
5: 285041-285045 GHash.IO
5: 283504-283508 GHash.IO
5: 282057-282061 GHash.IO
5: 280799-280803 GHash.IO
5: 280030-280034 GHash.IO
5: 278163-278167 GHash.IO
5: 276765-276769 GHash.IO
5: 276470-276474 GHash.IO
5: 275408-275412 GHash.IO
5: 274956-274960 GHash.IO
5: 274011-274015 GHash.IO
5: 272628-272632 GHash.IO
5: 272535-272539 GHash.IO
5: 270094-270098 GHash.IO
5: 268471-268475 GHash.IO
5: 267368-267372 GHash.IO
5: 266521-266525 GHash.IO
5: 266257-266261 GHash.IO
5: 264471-264475 GHash.IO
5: 248046-248050 ASICMiner
5: 245294-245298 50BTC
5: 243162-243166 50BTC
5: 241562-241566 50BTC
5: 235774-235778 50BTC
5: 204488-204492 SlushPool
4: 714846-714849 ViaBTC
4: 714711-714714 F2Pool
4: 713378-713381 F2Pool
4: 713042-713045 AntPool
4: 712262-712265 F2Pool
4: 712242-712245 Binance
4: 712237-712240 F2Pool
4: 711304-711307 AntPool
4: 711138-711141 AntPool
4: 709809-709812 AntPool
4: 709256-709259 F2Pool
4: 709003-709006 F2Pool
4: 708635-708638 ViaBTC
4: 707987-707990 F2Pool
4: 707528-707531 AntPool
4: 707190-707193 F2Pool
4: 706859-706862 AntPool
4: 706740-706743 AntPool
4: 706178-706181 AntPool
4: 706123-706126 F2Pool
4: 704484-704487 AntPool
4: 704394-704397 F2Pool
4: 704085-704088 F2Pool
4: 703795-703798 F2Pool
4: 703149-703152 AntPool
4: 702872-702875 Poolin
4: 701708-701711 SlushPool
4: 701662-701665 F2Pool
4: 701346-701349 F2Pool
4: 701335-701338 F2Pool
4: 700200-700203 Poolin
4: 699776-699779 AntPool
4: 698972-698975 AntPool
4: 697658-697661 AntPool
4: 697519-697522 AntPool
4: 697502-697505 AntPool
4: 697246-697249 ViaBTC
4: 697215-697218 AntPool
4: 695474-695477 ViaBTC
4: 694426-694429 AntPool
4: 694221-694224 AntPool
4: 692884-692887 Binance
4: 690030-690033 AntPool
4: 689403-689406 Binance
4: 687914-687917 F2Pool
4: 686306-686309 AntPool
4: 685552-685555 F2Pool
4: 682211-682214 AntPool
4: 681756-681759 AntPool
4: 681677-681680 F2Pool
4: 681388-681391 F2Pool
4: 681382-681385 F2Pool
4: 681074-681077 Huobi
4: 680599-680602 F2Pool
4: 680170-680173 ViaBTC
4: 679851-679854 BTC.com
4: 679341-679344 Binance
4: 679229-679232 ViaBTC
4: 679130-679133 ViaBTC
4: 679104-679107 F2Pool
4: 678327-678330 F2Pool
4: 678260-678263 F2Pool
4: 677855-677858 Poolin
4: 677543-677546 AntPool
4: 677004-677007 AntPool
4: 671923-671926 F2Pool
4: 671225-671228 F2Pool
4: 669869-669872 Huobi
4: 669565-669568 Binance
4: 668915-668918 AntPool
4: 667783-667786 F2Pool
4: 666278-666281 F2Pool
4: 665654-665657 F2Pool
4: 665130-665133 AntPool
4: 664924-664927 Binance
4: 664031-664034 F2Pool
4: 663226-663229 F2Pool
4: 662936-662939 F2Pool
4: 660924-660927 F2Pool
4: 659586-659589 F2Pool
4: 659070-659073 F2Pool
4: 658921-658924 F2Pool
4: 658452-658455 F2Pool
4: 655612-655615 F2Pool
4: 655607-655610 Poolin
4: 654919-654922 Binance
4: 654358-654361 Poolin
4: 653543-653546 Poolin
4: 651729-651732 F2Pool
4: 651289-651292 F2Pool
4: 649961-649964 AntPool
4: 648946-648949 Poolin
4: 648834-648837 Poolin
4: 648599-648602 Poolin
4: 647530-647533 F2Pool
4: 646760-646763 F2Pool
4: 645470-645473 Poolin
4: 645332-645335 F2Pool
4: 644742-644745 F2Pool
4: 643891-643894 Poolin
4: 640613-640616 F2Pool
4: 640252-640255 Poolin
4: 638668-638671 AntPool
4: 638185-638188 BTC.com
4: 638025-638028 F2Pool
4: 637600-637603 Poolin
4: 636260-636263 F2Pool
4: 634958-634961 BTC.com
4: 634565-634568 F2Pool
4: 633728-633731 Poolin
4: 633374-633377 Poolin
4: 633003-633006 F2Pool
4: 632870-632873 BTC.com
4: 632451-632454 F2Pool
4: 631858-631861 Poolin
4: 631556-631559 Poolin
4: 630913-630916 BTC.com
4: 630717-630720 F2Pool
4: 629669-629672 Poolin
4: 629657-629660 F2Pool
4: 629584-629587 F2Pool
4: 629276-629279 F2Pool
4: 628719-628722 F2Pool
4: 626813-626816 F2Pool
4: 625430-625433 BTC.com
4: 624063-624066 F2Pool
4: 623732-623735 F2Pool
4: 623207-623210 Poolin
4: 622320-622323 F2Pool
4: 621354-621357 Poolin
4: 620201-620204 Poolin
4: 618995-618998 AntPool
4: 618976-618979 F2Pool
4: 617780-617783 Poolin
4: 617670-617673 F2Pool
4: 617034-617037 F2Pool
4: 616888-616891 F2Pool
4: 611898-611901 F2Pool
4: 611824-611827 F2Pool
4: 608287-608290 BTC.com
4: 606555-606558 F2Pool
4: 606314-606317 BTC.com
4: 606292-606295 BTC.com
4: 606121-606124 BTC.com
4: 602959-602962 F2Pool
4: 601547-601550 F2Pool
4: 601186-601189 BTC.com
4: 600572-600575 F2Pool
4: 598120-598123 BTC.com
4: 597490-597493 F2Pool
4: 596022-596025 BTC.com
4: 595864-595867 BTC.com
4: 592431-592434 BTC.com
4: 592190-592193 BTC.com
4: 592134-592137 BTC.com
4: 591559-591562 BTC.TOP
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4: 590986-590989 BTC.com
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4: 590829-590832 BTC.com
4: 589974-589977 F2Pool
4: 589681-589684 BTC.com
4: 589349-589352 BTC.com
4: 588546-588549 BTC.com
4: 587666-587669 AntPool
4: 587080-587083 BTC.com
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4: 585091-585094 F2Pool
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4: 583287-583290 BTC.com
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4: 582823-582826 BTC.com
4: 581945-581948 BTC.com
4: 581715-581718 ViaBTC
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4: 579942-579945 F2Pool
4: 579806-579809 SlushPool
4: 578415-578418 BTC.com
4: 577506-577509 BTC.com
4: 577164-577167 BTC.com
4: 576483-576486 BTC.com
4: 573838-573841 BTC.com
4: 573701-573704 AntPool
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4: 572609-572612 BitFury
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4: 552160-552163 SlushPool
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4: 545841-545844 SlushPool
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4: 543185-543188 AntPool
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4: 540708-540711 SlushPool
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4: 535687-535690 BTC.com
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4: 528861-528864 AntPool
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4: 528015-528018 BTC.com
4: 527503-527506 BTC.com
4: 527479-527482 BTC.com
4: 527267-527270 BTC.com
4: 527195-527198 BTC.TOP
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4: 522545-522548 ViaBTC
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3: 663015-663017 Binance
3: 662995-662997 Poolin
3: 662924-662926 ViaBTC
3: 662834-662836 Huobi
3: 662744-662746 AntPool
3: 662675-662677 F2Pool
3: 662644-662646 F2Pool
3: 662435-662437 Huobi
3: 662431-662433 F2Pool
3: 662393-662395 BTC.com
3: 662363-662365 F2Pool
3: 662280-662282 Binance
3: 662200-662202 F2Pool
3: 661882-661884 F2Pool
3: 661723-661725 F2Pool
3: 661623-661625 AntPool
3: 661398-661400 F2Pool
3: 660669-660671 Binance
3: 660664-660666 F2Pool
3: 660626-660628 F2Pool
3: 660563-660565 Huobi
3: 660507-660509 Poolin
3: 660357-660359 Huobi
3: 660252-660254 F2Pool
3: 660247-660249 F2Pool
3: 660244-660246 ViaBTC
3: 660157-660159 F2Pool
3: 660140-660142 Binance
3: 660117-660119 Binance
3: 659879-659881 F2Pool
3: 659757-659759 F2Pool
3: 659736-659738 Huobi
3: 659579-659581 Poolin
3: 659524-659526 Poolin
3: 659093-659095 F2Pool
3: 658889-658891 Binance
3: 658801-658803 Poolin
3: 658770-658772 Poolin
3: 658599-658601 F2Pool
3: 658521-658523 Poolin
3: 658512-658514 Binance
3: 658342-658344 Huobi
3: 658317-658319 F2Pool
3: 658073-658075 Poolin
3: 657931-657933 F2Pool
3: 657879-657881 F2Pool
3: 657824-657826 F2Pool
3: 657664-657666 F2Pool
3: 657614-657616 F2Pool
3: 656841-656843 Poolin
3: 656542-656544 AntPool
3: 656346-656348 F2Pool
3: 656032-656034 Poolin
3: 655829-655831 F2Pool
3: 655744-655746 Poolin
3: 655730-655732 F2Pool
3: 655616-655618 Poolin
3: 655462-655464 Binance
3: 655383-655385 Poolin
3: 655261-655263 AntPool
3: 654934-654936 F2Pool
3: 654787-654789 Huobi
3: 654620-654622 Poolin
3: 654492-654494 ViaBTC
3: 654439-654441 F2Pool
3: 654220-654222 Poolin
3: 654195-654197 Huobi
3: 654014-654016 AntPool
3: 653904-653906 F2Pool
3: 653781-653783 F2Pool
3: 653682-653684 Binance
3: 653626-653628 Poolin
3: 653574-653576 Poolin
3: 653394-653396 AntPool
3: 653366-653368 F2Pool
3: 653290-653292 ViaBTC
3: 652832-652834 Poolin
3: 652612-652614 F2Pool
3: 652532-652534 F2Pool
3: 652474-652476 OKEX
3: 652318-652320 F2Pool
3: 652255-652257 F2Pool
3: 652119-652121 ViaBTC
3: 651762-651764 Huobi
3: 651352-651354 1THash&58COIN
3: 651340-651342 Huobi
3: 651247-651249 Huobi
3: 651144-651146 1THash&58COIN
3: 651128-651130 F2Pool
3: 651045-651047 Poolin
3: 650831-650833 OKEX
3: 650268-650270 BTC.TOP
~snip~
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On the contrary, there is a huge risk to DannyHamilton from this step:
So the pool owner himself can do this with less risk.

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January 02, 2022, 10:25:24 AM
 #22

This got me curious: how often has it happened?
As your data show, it is not that rare. Although you need 51% of the hashrate to be sure of overcoming the main chain eventually (provided you can sustain this hashrate for the length of time needed), you do not need 51% of the hashrate to have a reasonable chance of overcoming the main chain. Although not quite the same (since it is calculating ever catching up to the main chain, as opposed to mining x blocks in a row starting from now), this is essentially laid out in Section 11 - Calculations of the whitepaper. With 10% of the hashrate, you still have a 5% chance to overcome a 2 block deficit. With 30%, you have a 45% chance.

With 20% of the hashrate, which some large pools frequently have, then you still have a 0.1% chance to overcome a 10 block deficit. The GHash.IO numbers skew things a little, since they did control over 51% of the hashrate for a brief time in 2014.

So the pool owner himself can do this with less risk.
Yes, provided the users mining on that pool don't realize what is going on and abandon that pool, which could lead to complete collapse of the pool forever.
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January 02, 2022, 10:42:48 AM
 #23

The GHash.IO numbers skew things a little, since they did control over 51% of the hashrate for a brief time in 2014.
That's why I added the block numbers. If I ignore the very old blocks, these are the recent ones:
Code:
7: 715912-715918 F2Pool
6: 707977-707982 F2Pool
6: 706455-706460 AntPool
The one on top happened just last week, and all three happened in the past 10 weeks.

Quote
With 10% of the hashrate, you still have a 5% chance to overcome a 2 block deficit
So if you try 20 times, it becomes quite likely to succeed once! But that also means 19 out of 20 times you missed out on the block reward, and that makes it very costly to attempt, especially since 2 confirmations is probably not enough for a large transaction to be accepted.

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January 02, 2022, 11:35:51 AM
 #24

The one on top happened just last week, and all three happened in the past 10 weeks.
According to https://btc.com/stats/pool?pool_mode=month, F2Pool have had 14.6% of the hashrate over the last month. There was therefore a 0.088% chance of them finding 7 blocks in a row.

But that also means 19 out of 20 times you missed out on the block reward, and that makes it very costly to attempt, especially since 2 confirmations is probably not enough for a large transaction to be accepted.
It's even worse than that. The calculations given in the whitepaper are to overcome a (for example) 2 block deficit and catch up to the main chain. But even if you pull that off, then you are only at the same height as the main chain, and every other miner on the network is already working on the next block for the main chain and won't accept your alternate chain unless you overtake the main chain. So with 10% of the hashrate, you have a 1 in 20 chance of catching up to the main chain, and even if you do that then you only have a 1 in 10 chance of finding a block at height+1 and overtaking the main chain.
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January 02, 2022, 11:41:58 AM
 #25

According to https://btc.com/stats/pool?pool_mode=month, F2Pool have had 14.6% of the hashrate over the last month. There was therefore a 0.088% chance of them finding 7 blocks in a row.
That 0.088% chance is per block, right? Not per month? If it's per block, it becomes quite likely to happen during a month with thousands of blocks.

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January 02, 2022, 11:54:21 AM
 #26

That 0.088% chance is per block, right?
Thinking about this more closely, I think I'm wrong to use the equation in the whitepaper.

The equation in the whitepaper is looking at overcoming an x block deficit at any point, whereas here we are looking at mining blocks in a row. So for example, if I mine 3 blocks in secret, but then the main chain mines 1, I can still keep going with my chain but my advantage is now only 2 blocks. Whereas in our scenario here, if I mine 3 blocks, but then the main chain mines 1, my chain is broken and I have to start again.

I think the equation to use here is simply proportion of hashrate raised to number of blocks in the chain, so in this case 0.1467.

With 14.6% of the hashrate, F2Pool have a probability of 0.146 to find the next block. If they do find the next block, they again have a probability of 0.146 to find the block after that, or 0.1462, and so on.

0.1467 works out to a chance of 0.00014%.

This is indeed the chance per block.
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January 02, 2022, 12:02:45 PM
 #27

0.1467 works out to a chance of 0.00014%.

This is indeed the chance per block.
That gives them about 0.6% chance of finding 7 blocks in a row in a month. With 5 large mining pools, the chance of either one of them finding 7 blocks in a row during a month becomes a few percent. During a year, it becomes quite likely one of the large pools will find 7 blocks, which is indeed what happens once in a while.

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January 04, 2022, 02:19:46 PM
 #28

3 blocks in a row: 5392 times.

The current block height is 717,165

5392 / 717165 = 0.75%

That's a 0.75% chance of pulling off the scam in any single attempt and an 18.75 BTC cost if you fail.

Unless you get quite lucky, you're going to need a scam value of 2,494 BTC (that's more than $112,230,000 at today's exchange rate) for an equivalent expected value.



pooya87 successfully mines a block containing Transaction_B, and decides to broadcast it immediately cashing in on both the 6.25 BTC block reward as well as the 10 BTC DannyHamilton just paid him, and then runs off with the 10 BTC. There is nothing DannyHamilton can do. pooya87 can simply deny all knowledge, and even if DannyHamilton can prove that pooya87 has scammed him, he can only do so by first outing himself as an attempted scammer.

True. My example was built on the assumption that pooya87 and DannyHamilton could be relied on to actually cooperate with each other. Other examples can be bilt that would reduce or eliminate this risk, but they pass additional risk on to one of the other 2 parties and/or increase the overall risk that the scam fails entirely. 
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January 09, 2022, 03:09:40 AM
 #29

Thank you DannyHamilton for the example above that is like a written play between three people.

R


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