TA shows potential bullish breakout - if history repeats

[WePiggy]

Following the ups and downs from before shows a similar pattern where the next stage is a nice pump and a huge green candle.

If it does indeed repeat then buying now would be a rather profitable move

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[NeuroticFish]

The markets had a bad days due to fear of COVID (Dow falls 652 points on Fed chief Powell's tapering comments and Omicron variant concerns)
I don't know what will happen next:
1. it may be that people will sell bitcoin too and keep the money for whatever comes
2. it may be that people will invest into Bitcoin the money they've got from stocks, since the economy is expected to have problems, but they still want to earn


Of course, 1 means bearish market, and 2 bullish. Sometimes bitcoin acts like it would be coupled with stocks, sometimes it does the opposite, or neither. (I said acts like, since they are not coupled).

[BitMaxz]

That's a pretty good analysis but the problem is Bitcoin price is unpredictable it could be a trap or you might be right.
For now, it's always better to set stop-limit loss and watch for the price movement.

And always monitor news because there is some news that has a big impact on the Bitcoin price like the news about COVID above.
There are tools that you can use to monitor all news here https://cryptopanic.com/

And monitor inflow/outflow on cryptoquant.com for a better analysis. Remember there are many whales that can manipulate the price a bit that could potentially push the price up or down.

[TimeTeller]

That's a pretty good analysis but the problem is Bitcoin price is unpredictable it could be a trap or you might be right.
For now, it's always better to set stop-limit loss and watch for the price movement.

And always monitor news because there is some news that has a big impact on the Bitcoin price like the news about COVID above.
There are tools that you can use to monitor all news here https://cryptopanic.com/

And monitor inflow/outflow on cryptoquant.com for a better analysis.

The new Omicron variant is said to influence the financial market again.
But this is yet to be seen also in crypto market. It may even have positive effect on btc as people are looking for alternative investment options during crisis.
But we really can't tell much up until the situation is over. For now, keeping up with the updates and eyes open with the progress in the market.

[crwth]

The stock to flow model suggests that by the end of this year we should be around $100,000 in value. And I think with the technical analysis that you have there it's possible to reach that amount. I think It matters what the following months that we are going to have this year which is now December would push us to the next rally. Maybe a lot of people would get into it.

[Fundamentals Of]

If it does indeed repeat then buying now would be a rather profitable move

History will always repeat itself, if not now or tomorrow, it will be sooner or later. So I suggest that buying now will always be a profitable move. That buying alone is already profit in the making. The only thing that one should remind oneself after that is to make sure it is not sold before profit has materialized.

The breakout pattern specifically seen in the chart may or may not happen at all. But it does not mean a breakout will not arrive. It surely will. It is just a matter of when.

[Dave1]

Yeah, that is if history repeats itself. The thing with crypto is that the data we have is still very small to really points a similar pattern.

But who knows, maybe if we will have to settle down after the scare of a new variant spreading across the globe, maybe crypto market and the rest will take a breather and recover this month of December.

[cabron]

Yeah, that is if history repeats itself. The thing with crypto is that the data we have is still very small to really points a similar pattern.

But who knows, maybe if we will have to settle down after the scare of a new variant spreading across the globe, maybe crypto market and the rest will take a breather and recover this month of December.

History has always repeated itself. That's how we got the price of BTC today as it keeps repeating. But maybe because we are just too early in this space, we are still in the process of inviting people to join the blockchain revolution and own BTC. OP's chart however is in 1HR chart which I think is not the way to look at patterns of history repeating itself. It should have been in the daily or weekly chart to actually see it clearer. You don't see the pattern with just the VOLUME indicator.

If the pattern repeats what happened in Sept 2020, the price could actually go up to more than $300K after a few months.

[suchmoon]

I read the title as "bullshit breakout" and thought - finally, someone being honest about TA and how it relates to Bitcoin. But no, it turns out this is again some zoomorphic surmise of random events.

Bitcoin will probably go up or down or sideways, as it always does. Join the HODL cult and stop worrying.

And just so you don't think I'm making this up, I added a couple of patterns that the OP missed:

[btc_angela]

The stock to flow model suggests that by the end of this year we should be around $100,000 in value. And I think with the technical analysis that you have there it's possible to reach that amount. I think It matters what the following months that we are going to have this year which is now December would push us to the next rally. Maybe a lot of people would get into it.

Do you think we can grow to x2 in 4 weeks to make the price at least $100k before the end of the year? IF this happen this obviously we are in a bubble already and it doesn't look good in my opinion.

As for the TA, still a hit or miss, the thing is that we are in a dip so it's really profitable to buy at this point regardless if you are a TA guy or just an ordinary but smart investor.

[Botnake]

The stock to flow model suggests that by the end of this year we should be around $100,000 in value. And I think with the technical analysis that you have there it's possible to reach that amount. I think It matters what the following months that we are going to have this year which is now December would push us to the next rally. Maybe a lot of people would get into it.

Do you think we can grow to x2 in 4 weeks to make the price at least $100k before the end of the year? IF this happen this obviously we are in a bubble already and it doesn't look good in my opinion.

As for the TA, still a hit or miss, the thing is that we are in a dip so it's really profitable to buy at this point regardless if you are a TA guy or just an ordinary but smart investor.

What you have OP is definitely a hope for all of us and yes, it really has chances to happen because history might be repeating itself again and again. But with the market's high volatility, its very hard to predict  what will happen in the next days or months. Maybe we should focus more on the current condition of the market and take advantage of buying some potential coins that are still having low prices. But let's just keep hoping and stay optimistic that we will see a bullish market right before bear season starts, it could be this year or early next year.

[Poker Player]

The stock to flow model suggests that by the end of this year we should be around $100,000 in value. And I think with the technical analysis that you have there it's possible to reach that amount. I think It matters what the following months that we are going to have this year which is now December would push us to the next rally. Maybe a lot of people would get into it.

Not really. What it predicted was around $100k by the end of november, which already failed, and $135k. Perhaps the price will be boosted in December, but PlanB's model, as it was proposed, is no longer useful, and predictive models (which, no matter how much analysis they contain, will never predict with 100% reliability, far from it) will have to be rethought.

[Wexnident]

Looks more like wishful thinking (like I did) than a proper analysis tbh. Honestly, it doesn't look like the market is just going to do anything, more sideways movement is what I'd expect as usual. Well not that it matters to me really, go up or down, I'm still gonna hodl for a couple more years. Side if we just zoomed out, you can always see Bitcoin going up. It's just a matter of "when" exactly. So really, I don't think it matters that much if you're in the hodl cult, if you're not, well good luck watching the market daily.

[hugeblack]

What happened in the past will not be repeated because of the many variables that have occurred, but this does not prevent that there will be a rise, especially since Bitcoin is rising strongly when many believe that the price will not rise much.

Therefore, predicting the next month may be impossible, but levels like 92K do not seem impossible if we compare what happened at the beginning of this year.

In general, the effect of the new mutation of COVID will contribute to shaping what will happen this month.

[tertius993]

The problem with most TA and in fact most predictions is that they are made up of a cocktail of confirmation bias and wishful thinking.

[aoluain]

That's a pretty good analysis but the problem is Bitcoin price is unpredictable it could be a trap or you might be right.
For now, it's always better to set stop-limit loss and watch for the price movement.

And always monitor news because there is some news that has a big impact on the Bitcoin price like the news about COVID above.
There are tools that you can use to monitor all news here https://cryptopanic.com/

And monitor inflow/outflow on cryptoquant.com for a better analysis.

The new Omicron variant is said to influence the financial market again.
But this is yet to be seen also in crypto market.

Well unfortunately the crypto market is somewhat connected to the financial
market because traditional financial investors have infiltrated the crypto scene.


Hard to know if we will get a break out based on similar historical movements, the
Bitcoin market this year has bucked many trends along with some of PlanB's
predictions, so at the moment I'm not holding my breath for a massive breakout
let alone $100,000 year end.

[pooya87]

The markets had a bad days due to fear of COVID
I don't know what will happen next:

People react to news right away not with a large delay specially when we are talking about a 24/7 market like bitcoin. If they were to react to COVID news and other markets dumping they would have already showed some kind of reaction already.
Meanwhile price is currently $57k and doesn't seem interested in going down.

[NeuroticFish]

People react to news right away not with a large delay specially when we are talking about a 24/7 market like bitcoin. If they were to react to COVID news and other markets dumping they would have already showed some kind of reaction already.
Meanwhile price is currently $57k and doesn't seem interested in going down.

There was a flash dump yesterday, quickly going from over 59k to 56.6k, but the magnitude was small (flash dump for ants).
I find it interesting that it didn't go significantly up or down. And instead the news about the Canadian ETF have come. Again, with no effect on the price.
All in all, I think that Ratimov has nailed it:

More like your great desire to see a breakout in this picture than a real breakout signal. That is to say, wishful thinking.

[palle11]

The fast way that bitcoin recovers from dropping is what should matter . If the price comes back quick after the drop it means fear is no longer having an effect on the market because of the season. At every drop, more buyers are ready for an advantage and that put price back as they are having the speculation for bull and nobody want to stay outside. So that is steadily giving price recovery as it is ranging since morning for a bull direction.

[Lucius]

And now the market is not growing, it is now squeezed in a narrow corridor, between $53 000 and $58 000.

When I read that the narrow corridor is as high as $5000 (or rather it would be $6k because the price goes up to $59k), then I remember the good old days when we were debating whether the price would ever reach $1000 again, or whether it was realistic to expect $10k to at the end of this decade. I know that for day traders and those who invest in the short term, things like this make sense - but for the rest of us, it doesn't matter at all, nor will it be disappointing if we don't reach a new ATH this year.

People react to news right away not with a large delay specially when we are talking about a 24/7 market like bitcoin.

The only question is which people react first, because half the world should sleep while the other half is awake - and I think someone has tried to make a connection between the US and the Asian market (WO), that goes from assuming one market buys (price goes up) and when the second market wakes up, sales start. Of course, such things are impossible to prove precisely, because many traders often sleep only 3-4 hours and are active most of the time.