As we are approaching the next halving I thought it might be interesting to revisit this thread to see how the predictions worked out.
I've updated Table 6 to show the predictions vs the actuals and compare the accuracy:
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.postimg.cc%2F15LqJrr6%2FComparing-Halvings-Table7.png&t=665&c=WXU1RMUl90qqkw)
Key observations:
a. the post-halving high came much sooner than expected and was slightly lower (-9%) than predicted but still over 90% accurate!
b. the relative increase (halving to halving) was actually more or less on-prediction at ~8x vs the ~9x predicted
c. the low was actually a lot higher (by 22%) than predicted
d. although the low was early compared to the predicted date, this was almost entirely due to the high itself being early, the time from high to low was almost exact at 376 days vs 388 predicted
Looking ahead to the halving in 2024 and the hoped for subsequent high,
if the trend continues:
i. the high will be about 2-2.5 times the price at the halving
ii. the high will arrive about 12-18 months after the halving
iii. the subsequent low will be about 12 months after the high
I'll update again once we have reached the halving and we know the actual dates and values.
None of this constitutes financial advice and is just for amusement!