Comparing bitcoin halvings - 2012 to 2020 - and now looking ahead to 2024

[sunsilk]

@OPs prediction for 2022 is likely but I'm looking forward after the next halving by 2024.

2024 and next halving is too far away. We either continue on the same cycle trend which means price has a lot more to gain before it starts crashing down or this marks the end of the 4-year cycles in which case we are still going to see rises but not nearly as much. $100k by first half of 2022 would my guess in second scenario.

A few days from now, 2021 is about to end. Then here comes the 2022, another 2 years in the wait for the next halving to come. That won't be that far anymore as the time seems to be quicker every time we're too busy with the market.

$75k-$100k by next year by Q2 sounds good to everyone of us. Whether the cycle would be the same or not, the reality is that bitcoin is really bound to go up regardless of the trends and cycles and that's the pattern of what halving gives to it.

[Oceat]

Well, at least there's a figure that we could assume what would be the future price if history would repeat itself. I know Bitcoin is always unpredictable but with that figure we could assume anywhere near of that price would be the next price target. I can't believe how low it gets when it hits the bottom if we compare it from the chart although I believe it may not be that accurate but the bottom would be closer to that price. Fud and Fomo will change the outcome of those predicted price plus the price manipulation of whales if they have to. It would depends on all individual if they would follow the chart or let the future decide.

[tygeade]

First I don’t think there is enough data to use the prior halvings to predict future halvings, but if we are going to try to do that we ought to at least use the data we have.  The data we have suggests that the impact of each halving will be smaller than the one before, as the proportion of the total supply that is affected by the halving reduces over time.

Well, but I do not agree that the price at the time of halving is a significant one to consider unlike what we usually do with high and low price levels in between 2 halving event. I guess if you go with low happened before first halving and then high after first halving then you may need to re-evaluate everything which might be getting us a complete set of new ATH in 2022.

Overall, I am not convinced with your predicted ATH for current cycle. Anyway, time will answer and let's see what is going to happen and how much respect bitcoin market is able to provide to its own past history of events.

[philipma1957]

First off you leave out the price war between bitmain and spondoolies this was the s5 and the sp10

the companies sold them fast and cheap driving down the price of coin from nov 2014 to jan 2015

it is also why the ½ ing was 3 years and 7 months vs 3 years and 10 months next time.

Since part of these factors are left out it partially negates the theory you have.


This ½ ing  you are leaving out holy covid we all going to die concept.

It really alters the growth rate of mining gear.

In principle I do agree that the ½ ings will have less influence but other factors have meaning.






As for the idea the asset is now too big and cant grow much.

Gold is on its way out as a storage of wealth.
asteroid mining ⛏ may make gold common.
so all gold holders may need to shift to an asset such as BTC for wealth storage.

Gold is about 8 trillion so BTC could gain as the shift happens over the next few years.

[bitgolden]

I do not agree that the price at the time of halving is a significant one to consider unlike what we usually do with high and low price levels in between 2 halving event.

Not just the price at the time of halving, even low or high are not enough parameters to predict about the future. Yeah, all your calculations will become invalid when one more intuition will be deciding to invest billions of dollars with long term plans (I am confident about more corporates will copy the business model of microstartegy for sure).

I remember someone wrote here on speculations like "FOMO is not limited to any formula". Hence, all speculations are done for just informative purposes and not for exact predictions.

We all know what a limited supply will do against unlimited demand. Just follow that.

[tertius993]

First off you leave out the price war between bitmain and spondoolies this was the s5 and the sp10

the companies sold them fast and cheap driving down the price of coin from nov 2014 to jan 2015

it is also why the ½ ing was 3 years and 7 months vs 3 years and 10 months next time.

Since part of these factors are left out it partially negates the theory you have.


This ½ ing  you are leaving out holy covid we all going to die concept.

It really alters the growth rate of mining gear.

In principle I do agree that the ½ ings will have less influence but other factors have meaning.


As for the idea the asset is now too big and cant grow much.

Gold is on its way out as a storage of wealth.
asteroid mining ⛏ may make gold common.
so all gold holders may need to shift to an asset such as BTC for wealth storage.

Gold is about 8 trillion so BTC could gain as the shift happens over the next few years.

Regarding the mining equipment price war - yes and so does everyone else who says "Every previous halving has looked like x therefore this one will too."

Remember this is simply about trying to do a more rigorous assessment and comparison of the previous halvings and seeing if we could roll it forward onto this one.  I'm not in any way invested in it as a prediction, indeed I'd be delighted if bitcoin leaped to $250k (or any other massive number anyone likes to propose) ... more than delighted, I'd be ecstatic!

Regarding asteroid mining - not in our lifetimes, we're decades away from having that capability.  Moreover, even if we could mine asteroids, why would we mine them for gold?  Its hardly the most essential element we are short of, and mining it in any volume would crash the price here, to very little benefit.

[philipma1957]

First off you leave out the price war between bitmain and spondoolies this was the s5 and the sp10

the companies sold them fast and cheap driving down the price of coin from nov 2014 to jan 2015

it is also why the ½ ing was 3 years and 7 months vs 3 years and 10 months next time.

Since part of these factors are left out it partially negates the theory you have.


This ½ ing  you are leaving out holy covid we all going to die concept.

It really alters the growth rate of mining gear.

In principle I do agree that the ½ ings will have less influence but other factors have meaning.


As for the idea the asset is now too big and cant grow much.

Gold is on its way out as a storage of wealth.
asteroid mining ⛏ may make gold common.
so all gold holders may need to shift to an asset such as BTC for wealth storage.

Gold is about 8 trillion so BTC could gain as the shift happens over the next few years.

Regarding the mining equipment price war - yes and so does everyone else who says "Every previous halving has looked like x therefore this one will too."

Remember this is simply about trying to do a more rigorous assessment and comparison of the previous halvings and seeing if we could roll it forward onto this one.  I'm not in any way invested in it as a prediction, indeed I'd be delighted if bitcoin leaped to $250k (or any other massive number anyone likes to propose) ... more than delighted, I'd be ecstatic!

Regarding asteroid mining - not in our lifetimes, we're decades away from having that capability.  Moreover, even if we could mine asteroids, why would we mine them for gold?  Its hardly the most essential element we are short of, and mining it in any volume would crash the price here, to very little benefit.

Dude make gold as common as copper and the worlds electrical systems improve so much it would be hard to,scale.

why do you think 3 superrich dudes are doing space launches.

google asteroid with gold and read that one single known  asteroid  has way more than 50x the worlds known supply.

divert it to the moon and endless solar power is buildable.

simple  but not easy peasy.

long term gold is worth less than silver based on the amount known on that one particular asteroid.

and gold is such a good e
conductors

[tertius993]

I do not agree that the price at the time of halving is a significant one to consider unlike what we usually do with high and low price levels in between 2 halving event.

Not just the price at the time of halving, even low or high are not enough parameters to predict about the future. Yeah, all your calculations will become invalid when one more intuition will be deciding to invest billions of dollars with long term plans (I am confident about more corporates will copy the business model of microstartegy for sure).

I remember someone wrote here on speculations like "FOMO is not limited to any formula". Hence, all speculations are done for just informative purposes and not for exact predictions.

We all know what a limited supply will do against unlimited demand. Just follow that.

As posted above I am not invested in it in any sense ... it was merely an interesting intellectual exercise.

And yes, I am sure you are right when comparing limited supply vs unlimited demand, but we clearly don't have unlimited demand and I am unsure what is going to create it?

[tertius993]

First off you leave out the price war between bitmain and spondoolies this was the s5 and the sp10

the companies sold them fast and cheap driving down the price of coin from nov 2014 to jan 2015

it is also why the ½ ing was 3 years and 7 months vs 3 years and 10 months next time.

Since part of these factors are left out it partially negates the theory you have.


This ½ ing  you are leaving out holy covid we all going to die concept.

It really alters the growth rate of mining gear.

In principle I do agree that the ½ ings will have less influence but other factors have meaning.


As for the idea the asset is now too big and cant grow much.

Gold is on its way out as a storage of wealth.
asteroid mining ⛏ may make gold common.
so all gold holders may need to shift to an asset such as BTC for wealth storage.

Gold is about 8 trillion so BTC could gain as the shift happens over the next few years.

Regarding the mining equipment price war - yes and so does everyone else who says "Every previous halving has looked like x therefore this one will too."

Remember this is simply about trying to do a more rigorous assessment and comparison of the previous halvings and seeing if we could roll it forward onto this one.  I'm not in any way invested in it as a prediction, indeed I'd be delighted if bitcoin leaped to $250k (or any other massive number anyone likes to propose) ... more than delighted, I'd be ecstatic!

Regarding asteroid mining - not in our lifetimes, we're decades away from having that capability.  Moreover, even if we could mine asteroids, why would we mine them for gold?  Its hardly the most essential element we are short of, and mining it in any volume would crash the price here, to very little benefit.

Dude make gold as common as copper and the worlds electrical systems improve so much it would be hard to,scale.

why do you think 3 superrich dudes are doing space launches.

google asteroid with gold and read that one single known  asteroid  has way more than 50x the worlds known supply.

divert it to the moon and endless solar power is buildable.

simple  but not easy peasy.

long term gold is worth less than silver based on the amount known on that one particular asteroid.

and gold is such a good e
conductors

In what way will it improve it?  Copper is actually a superior conductor of electricity than gold, see for example here: https://www.bluesea.com/resources/108/Electrical_Conductivity_of_Materials

I read about that asteroid at the time, and whilst I agree it exists I don't think we are anywhere near having the technological capability to do anything about it.

As for the "3 superrich dudes" ... firstly because they are extraordinarily vain, and secondly because they see a financial return and not necessarily from mining asteroids.

[tertius993]

As we are approaching the next halving I thought it might be interesting to revisit this thread to see how the predictions worked out.

I've updated Table 6 to show the predictions vs the actuals and compare the accuracy:



Key observations:
a. the post-halving high came much sooner than expected and was slightly lower (-9%) than predicted but still over 90% accurate!
b. the relative increase (halving to halving) was actually more or less on-prediction at ~8x vs the ~9x predicted
c. the low was actually a lot higher (by 22%) than predicted
d. although the low was early compared to the predicted date, this was almost entirely due to the high itself being early, the time from high to low was almost exact at 376 days vs 388 predicted

Looking ahead to the halving in 2024 and the hoped for subsequent high, if the trend continues:
i. the high will be about 2-2.5 times the price at the halving
ii. the high will arrive about 12-18 months after the halving
iii. the subsequent low will be about 12 months after the high

I'll update again once we have reached the halving and we know the actual dates and values.

None of this constitutes financial advice and is just for amusement!

[kfactor]

None of this constitutes financial advice and is just for amusement!

I am amused. An interesting exercise, good work.