JJG’s Outline of Bitcoin Investment Ideas

[JayJuanGee]

This is some really interesting stuff here!

Here is an updated table that contains actual facts projections through May 2025, and then projections from November 2025 until November 2090.  This table was formatted by AlcoHoDL, here, and there is an unedited version that goes through 2157, here.  

I added a couple of columns to this table, so consider Coins/10% to be presuming how many BTC it takes to be at a wealth of $800k based on the 200-WMA, and I presume an ability to withdraw at 10% of the dollar value per year in perpetuity, and to get an $80k per year income, the 4% field falls under traditional conception of a 4% withdrawal rate so presumes a $2 million wealth in order to sustain an $80k per year income.  The filthy rich column shows how many BTC are needed at the 200-WMA valuation to be at $100 million wealth status.    

Future projections of BTC spot value presumes that the BTC spot price tends to be at least $30k higher than the 200-WMA.

Since you are making future projections for a long time, I would like to see a column called real price or something. Later as we keep reaching new dates you could populate them to see where your prediction ended up when compared to the actual price on that date. I'm not sure if you'd be interested in including that, but I would. Something like this.

Date	SpotPrice	RealSpotPrice	200 WMA	%gain/time	Spotvs200	gain/time	Coins/10%FU Status	Coins/4%FU Status	Filthy-Rich
5/31/26	$107,639	To be added	$82,799	20.00%	0.00%	$13,800	9.66197018	24.15492544	1,207.7463

You could add it for both spot price and 200 WMA if you really wanted to track both after the fact. I'm just happy that I managed to edit all this table code correctly to include it lol, but the table code has nice formatting too.

The part about $800k, $2 million and $100 million seem a bit misformatted for me. Does anyone else see the same? I think that you can keep them in line in a better way than trying to match it using spaces or tabs. Try using a table row above but keeping all other entries empty. Like this.

							$800k	$2 million	$100 million
Date	SpotPrice	RealSpotPrice	200 WMA	%gain/time	Spotvs200	gain/time	Coins/10%FU Status	Coins/4%FU Status	Filthy-Rich
5/31/26	$107,639	To be added	$82,799	20.00%	0.00%	$13,800	9.66197018	24.15492544	1,207.7463

Regarding Format: I have been using an Excel spreadsheet to update the information, yet as you likely realize I cannot copy and paste the Excel spreadsheet information into the thread of the forum, so I have been getting help from some other members such as @fillippone and @AlcoHoDL in regards to some of the formatting of my tables.  In other words, I am not very good at working with tables on the forum, and I have not yet been able to learn how to do it properly.. so in that regard, I am open to get assistance from any member who might reformat any of the tables to make them more user-friendly in their readability.

Since of course, if the table is more readable, then also the information contained therein will become more clear in regards to its meaning and/or how it can be used.  Another thing is that bitmover has designed the website tool that compares the spot price to the 200-WMA price, which also has various ways to calculate backwards and forwards, and at the same time, I frequently discuss the various tools and tables in combination, and had even been in discussions with @bitmover regarding ways to potentially create a fuck you status table tool.. yet we have not successfully come up with a format for such tool, yet... Even though I also consider the tool to relate to time-based sustainable withdrawal, bitmover and I have not come up with a price-based sustainable withdrawal tool that is better than the Google spreadsheet that fillippone helped me to translate my Excel version and to put it on the google spreadsheet page (as I mentioned and linked to at the bottom of this post)..

Edit: Highlighted my name dropping, and added @ symbol in front of three names.

Regarding Substance (about past facts versus future projections):  I understand that I could probably present the information more clearly, and perhaps my choice to use the Spot Price Column and the 200-WMA as both 1) factually what happened and 2) projections of what I expect to happen, as you seem to be suggesting, this might have been more clearly presented if I had used a different column for past facts versus future projections.  

In any event, if I update the table, then all of the data for spot price and 200-WMA for dates prior to my update are based on actually what had happened already, and all of the dates into the future are projections into the future.  So I merely added the red highlighting in order to attempt to project that all data and dates on and after November 30, 2025 were projections of the BTC spot price and the 200-WMA into the future, and all of the data and dates before November 30, 2025 were factually what had already happened on each of those depicted dates.  

For sure, I could have had presented that information more clearly, and by the way, I am not trying to be any kind of guru about the future, I am just trying my best within 6 month time chunks to project out where the BTC price is going to go, and I understand if my projection for a 6 month time chunk is for 50% or 60% or more, then if it ends up ONLY being 15% or 20%, then that wrongness in the projection ends up potentially having a magnifying effect on the whole further out projections, and sure it is possible that the actual data will make up for the error or regress back to my mean, yet I still feel that my projections into the future are ballparked ideas rather than anything that I consider to be concrete, even though I still may well consider it prudent to attempt to act upon the ballparked ideas or for me to compare my own ballpark projections to the ideas that I see presented by others to see if they are in the same neighborhood as my projections, and if they deviate from my own projections, then what is their rationale (if any) for having such deviations, and many times when I see future projections, they have almost no rationale for their projecting out into the future beyond perhaps having some kind of a gut feeling, even though with mine I attempt to base my projections on the 200-WMA and also to have my slope of decreasing 200-WMA growth to go out into the future, even though it seems that some of my future 200-WMA growth rates get down into the 5-% annualized, which causes me to speculate that there are likely going to be some years of great outperformance and other years of great under performance (meaning negative numbers, even for the 200-WMA, perhaps?)

~~

Not a bad idea.

It might even be possible to download a CSV file containing all the analysis content. This would make it easier for users to analyze the data in other ways, or for personal control.

I am not sure how I would accomplish that, unless we could get bitmover to work on something or maybe another member would be interested in helping to achieve such a goal, if it is feasible.

[bitmover]

~~

Not a bad idea.

It might even be possible to download a CSV file containing all the analysis content. This would make it easier for users to analyze the data in other ways, or for personal control.

I am not sure how I would accomplish that, unless we could get bitmover to work on something or maybe another member would be interested in helping to achieve such a goal, if it is feasible.

It is easy to export csv data from all the charts that I generate here, as I already have it  in json
https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

I can create later on
 Is that what you are talking about?

[JayJuanGee]

~~

Not a bad idea.

It might even be possible to download a CSV file containing all the analysis content. This would make it easier for users to analyze the data in other ways, or for personal control.

I am not sure how I would accomplish that, unless we could get bitmover to work on something or maybe another member would be interested in helping to achieve such a goal, if it is feasible.

It is easy to export csv data from all the charts that I generate here, as I already have it  in json
https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

I can create later on
 Is that what you are talking about?

That sounds like it would be correct. The data would be different depending on which table we are drawing from, whether from the fuck you status chart or some other data that gets assembled by describing categories.   I might not even know what data might be more helpful for myself to be able to look through and analyze better, until I see it. 

Maybe joker_josue can chime in with a description of which data he was considering?  I think that he was referring to the fuck you status chart, but maybe he can clarify.

[joker_josue]

Maybe joker_josue can chime in with a description of which data he was considering?  I think that he was referring to the fuck you status chart, but maybe he can clarify.

Exporting the "Input Area" and "Output Area" data would allow the user to create a documented history of the possible movements and evolution of their behavior when applying this strategy.

In the end, you would have more autonomy to work with this data and adapt it to your needs.

Let's say the platform performed the calculations live, and the user's Excel file kept a history of the results.

[JayJuanGee]

Maybe joker_josue can chime in with a description of which data he was considering?  I think that he was referring to the fuck you status chart, but maybe he can clarify.

Exporting the "Input Area" and "Output Area" data would allow the user to create a documented history of the possible movements and evolution of their behavior when applying this strategy.

In the end, you would have more autonomy to work with this data and adapt it to your needs.

Let's say the platform performed the calculations live, and the user's Excel file kept a history of the results.

Your language is beyond my pay grade, since I thought that we were referring to the fuck you status chart, which is merely the below chart that has a bunch of data.  There is no input versus output.

                                                                                                             $800k                $2 million                      $100 million

Date	SpotPrice	200 WMA	%gain/time	Spotvs200	gain/time	Coins/10%FU Status	Coins/4%FU Status	Filthy-Rich
12/1/10	$0.23	$0.12	xxx	91.67%	xxx	6,666,667	16,666,667	833,333,333
6/1/11	$9.57	$1.03	758.33%	829.13%	$0.91	776,699	1,941,748	97,087,379

... etc, etc, etc.

However, bitmover's cite that has our sustainable withdrawal tool has input and out put aspects to it, and so the input is fairly limited in regards to what kinds of data could be inputted in order to receive and view outputted data from various angles based on various changes to the inputted data. 

It surely could be the case that with that sustainable withdrawal tool, there could be some value to be able to generate (and download) differing CSV files based on however the inputted data might be changed (if that is what you mean?)   I am not sure how I would use it, but if others can find ways to use it, then surely it could be valuable data generation.

[joker_josue]

                                                                                                             $800k                $2 million                      $100 million

Date	SpotPrice	200 WMA	%gain/time	Spotvs200	gain/time	Coins/10%FU Status	Coins/4%FU Status	Filthy-Rich
12/1/10	$0.23	$0.12	xxx	91.67%	xxx	6,666,667	16,666,667	833,333,333
6/1/11	$9.57	$1.03	758.33%	829.13%	$0.91	776,699	1,941,748	97,087,379

... etc, etc, etc.

However, bitmover's cite that has our sustainable withdrawal tool has input and out put aspects to it, and so the input is fairly limited in regards to what kinds of data could be inputted in order to receive and view outputted data from various angles based on various changes to the inputted data. 

It surely could be the case that with that sustainable withdrawal tool, there could be some value to be able to generate (and download) differing CSV files based on however the inputted data might be changed (if that is what you mean?)   I am not sure how I would use it, but if others can find ways to use it, then surely it could be valuable data generation.

Basically, it would be a table similar to the one you made.

I can use the tool to calculate the monthly withdrawal amount. Then, I export the data from the website to my Excel file, where I have the information/calculations for all the withdrawals I've made. This will allow me to do a more detailed analysis of all the movements I made, based on what data and perspectives.

You ask if this will be useful for anything specific? Well, it might not provide any specific help, but it could be interesting for analysis and statistics.

[Dogedegen]

Regarding Format: I have been using an Excel spreadsheet to update the information, yet as you likely realize I cannot copy and paste the Excel spreadsheet information into the thread of the forum, so I have been getting help from some other members such as @fillippone and @AlcoHoDL in regards to some of the formatting of my tables.  In other words, I am not very good at working with tables on the forum, and I have not yet been able to learn how to do it properly.. so in that regard, I am open to get assistance from any member who might reformat any of the tables to make them more user-friendly in their readability.

Thanks for sharing the story, now I understand better the situation here. Well the tables seem like something that I can get around with as the syntax is pretty clear. I can also try to help with this.

Regarding Substance (about past facts versus future projections):  I understand that I could probably present the information more clearly, and perhaps my choice to use the Spot Price Column and the 200-WMA as both 1) factually what happened and 2) projections of what I expect to happen, as you seem to be suggesting, this might have been more clearly presented if I had used a different column for past facts versus future projections.  

In any event, if I update the table, then all of the data for spot price and 200-WMA for dates prior to my update are based on actually what had happened already, and all of the dates into the future are projections into the future.  So I merely added the red highlighting in order to attempt to project that all data and dates on and after November 30, 2025 were projections of the BTC spot price and the 200-WMA into the future, and all of the data and dates before November 30, 2025 were factually what had already happened on each of those depicted dates.  

Well the table can be split into two, where all existing entries that are based on things that actually happened are in the first table and then comes a slightly modified table that includes prediction too. I will try to provide it in this post.

For sure, I could have had presented that information more clearly, and by the way, I am not trying to be any kind of guru about the future, I am just trying my best within 6 month time chunks to project out where the BTC price is going to go, and I understand if my projection for a 6 month time chunk is for 50% or 60% or more, then if it ends up ONLY being 15% or 20%, then that wrongness in the projection ends up potentially having a magnifying effect on the whole further out projections, and sure it is possible that the actual data will make up for the error or regress back to my mean, yet I still feel that my projections into the future are ballparked ideas rather than anything that I consider to be concrete, even though I still may well consider it prudent to attempt to act upon the ballparked ideas or for me to compare my own ballpark projections to the ideas that I see presented by others to see if they are in the same neighborhood as my projections, and if they deviate from my own projections, then what is their rationale (if any) for having such deviations, and many times when I see future projections, they have almost no rationale for their projecting out into the future beyond perhaps having some kind of a gut feeling, even though with mine I attempt to base my projections on the 200-WMA and also to have my slope of decreasing 200-WMA growth to go out into the future, even though it seems that some of my future 200-WMA growth rates get down into the 5-% annualized, which causes me to speculate that there are likely going to be some years of great outperformance and other years of great under performance (meaning negative numbers, even for the 200-WMA, perhaps?)

I understand. I am merely impressed by this idea here as I have stated in other threads during our discussions even if they are not really something new as you have indicated yourself. Still, it would be really interesting to me to see how accurate your predictions based on this strategy are going to be. It would be nice to look back 5 or 10 years from now on. If it ends up being quite accurate then that gives it some extra likeliness that it will continue to be a good strategy!

Now if we are really lucky here this could unintended create a legendary moment similar to the origin of HODL. For that you have to be pretty accurate and for that we have to compare projected price to what actually happened. 

Anyway so here is my attempt at the table... let me know how you feel about it. This would be the first part with real things and the 3 categories aligned in the first row.

						$800k	$2 million	$100 million
Date	SpotPrice	200 WMA	%gain/time	Spotvs200	gain/time	Coins/10%FU Status	Coins/4%FU Status	Filthy-Rich
12/1/10	$0.23	$0.12	xxx	91.67%	xxx	6,666,667	16,666,667	833,333,333
6/1/11	$9.57	$1.03	758.33%	829.13%	$0.91	776,699	1,941,748	97,087,379
12/1/11	$3.06	$3.94	282.52%	-22.34%	$2.91	203,046	507,614	25,380,711
5/31/12	$5.18	$4.21	6.85%	23.04%	$0.27	190,024	475,059	23,752,969
11/30/12	$12.57	$5.42	28.74%	131.92%	$1.21	147,601	369,004	18,450,185
6/1/13	$129.09	$15.09	178.41%	755.47%	$9.67	53,015.2419	132,538	6,626,905
11/30/13	$1,127.45	$40.59	168.99%	2677.65%	$25.50	19,709.2880	49,273.2200	2,463,661
6/1/14	$640.16	$119.77	195.07%	434.49%	$79.18	6,679.4690	16,698.6725	834,934
11/30/14	$376.47	$183.18	52.94%	105.52%	$63.41	4,367.2890	10,918.2225	545,911
6/1/15	$223.32	$216.22	18.04%	3.28%	$33.04	3,699.9353	9,249.8381	462,492
12/1/15	$363.45	$250.78	15.98%	44.93%	$34.56	3,190.0471	7,975.1176	398,756
5/31/16	$531.41	$305.36	21.76%	74.03%	$54.58	2,619.8585	6,549.6463	327,482
11/30/16	$742.36	$387.63	26.94%	91.51%	$82.27	2,063.8237	5,159.5594	257,978
5/31/17	$2,329	$528.67	36.39%	340.55%	$141.04	1,513.2313	3,783.0783	189,154
11/30/17	$10,406	$1,042	97.10%	898.66%	$513.33	767.75431862	1,919.3858	95,969
6/1/18	$7,460	$2,363	126.78%	215.70%	$1,321	338.55268726	846.38172	42,319
11/30/18	$4,279	$3,161	33.77%	35.37%	$798	253.08446694	632.71117	31,636
6/1/19	$8,576	$3,727	17.91%	130.10%	$566	214.64985243	536.62463	26,831
11/30/19	$7,721	$4,927	32.20%	56.71%	$1,200	162.37061092	405.92653	20,296
5/31/20	$9,663	$5,917	20.09%	63.31%	$990	135.20365050	338.00913	16,900
11/30/20	$18,170	$7,338	24.02%	147.62%	$1,421	109.02153175	272.55383	13,628
5/31/21	$35,715	$12,753	73.79%	180.05%	$5,415	62.73033796	156.82584	7,841.2922
11/30/21	$57,849	$17,766	39.31%	225.62%	$5,013	45.02983226	112.57458	5,628.7290
5/31/22	$31,741	$22,070	24.23%	43.82%	$4,304	36.24830086	90.62075215	4,531.0376
11/30/22	$16,442	$24,101	9.20%	-31.78%	$2,031	33.19364342	82.98410854	4,149.2054
6/1/23	$27,245	$26,311	9.17%	3.55%	$2,210	30.40553381	76.01383452	3,800.6917
11/30/23	$37,810	$29,027	10.32%	30.26%	$2,716	27.56054708	68.90136769	3,445.0684
5/31/24	$68,372	$35,188	21.23%	94.30%	$6,161	22.73502330	56.83755826	2,841.8779
11/29/24	$95,662	$41,513	17.97%	130.44%	$6,325	19.27107171	48.17767928	2,408.8840
5/31/25	$104,011	$47,916	15.42%	117.07%	$6,403	16.69588446	41.73971116	2,086.9856

And this would would then be for the projections.

								$800k	$2 million	$100 million
Date	Projected SpotPrice	Real SpotPrice	Projected 200 WMA	Real 200 WMA	%gain/time	Spotvs200	gain/time	Coins/10%FU Status	Coins/4%FU Status	Filthy-Rich
11/30/25	$89,699	TBD	$68,999	TBD	44.00%	102.00%	$21,083	11.59436421	28.98591053	1,449.2955
5/31/26	$107,639	TBD	$82,799	TBD	20.00%	0.00%	$13,800	9.66197018	24.15492544	1,207.7463
11/30/26	$123,784	TBD	$95,219	TBD	15.00%	95.00%	$12,420	8.40171320	21.00428299	1,050.2141
5/31/27	$138,638	TBD	$106,645	TBD	12.00%	95.00%	$11,426	7.50152964	18.75382410	937.6912
11/30/27	$154,443	TBD	$118,802	TBD	11.40%	95.00%	$12,158	6.73386862	16.83467154	841.7336
5/31/28	$177,610	TBD	$136,623	TBD	15.00%	0.00%	$17,820	5.85553793	14.63884482	731.9422
11/29/28	$204,784	TBD	$157,526	TBD	15.30%	102.00%	$20,903	5.07852379	12.69630947	634.8155
5/31/29	$236,742	TBD	$182,110	TBD	15.61%	102.00%	$24,584	4.39295866	10.98239665	549.11983
11/29/29	$274,427	TBD	$211,098	TBD	15.92%	102.00%	$28,988	3.78970834	9.47427085	473.71354
5/31/30	$299,126	TBD	$230,097	TBD	9.00%	0.00%	$18,999	3.47679664	8.69199160	434.59958
11/30/30	$324,701	TBD	$249,770	TBD	8.55%	95.00%	$19,673	3.20294486	8.00736214	400.36811
5/31/31	$351,075	TBD	$270,058	TBD	8.12%	95.00%	$20,288	2.96232963	7.40582408	370.29120
11/30/31	$378,165	TBD	$290,896	TBD	7.72%	95.00%	$20,839	2.75012006	6.87530014	343.76501
5/30/32	$423,545	TBD	$325,804	TBD	12.00%	0.00%	$34,908	2.45546434	6.13866084	306.93304
11/29/32	$475,387	TBD	$365,682	TBD	12.24%	102.00%	$39,878	2.18769096	5.46922740	273.46137
5/31/33	$534,738	TBD	$411,337	TBD	12.48%	102.00%	$45,655	1.94487696	4.86219241	243.10962
11/29/33	$602,834	TBD	$463,719	TBD	12.73%	102.00%	$52,382	1.72518353	4.31295884	215.64794
5/31/34	$645,033	TBD	$496,179	TBD	7.00%	0.00%	$32,460	1.61232106	4.03080265	201.54013
11/29/34	$687,928	TBD	$529,175	TBD	6.65%	95.00%	$32,996	1.51178721	3.77946803	188.97340
5/31/35	$731,387	TBD	$562,606	TBD	6.32%	95.00%	$33,431	1.42195519	3.55488798	177.74440
11/30/35	$775,282	TBD	$596,371	TBD	6.00%	95.00%	$33,765	1.34144660	3.35361649	167.68082
5/30/36	$852,811	TBD	$656,008	TBD	10.00%	0.00%	$59,637	1.21949691	3.04874227	152.43711
11/29/36	$939,797	TBD	$722,921	TBD	10.20%	102.00%	$66,913	1.10662151	2.76655378	138.32769
5/30/37	$1,037,574	TBD	$798,134	TBD	10.40%	102.00%	$75,213	1.00233824	2.50584560	125.29228
11/29/37	$1,147,682	TBD	$882,832	TBD	10.61%	102.00%	$84,699	0.90617430	2.26543575	113.27179
5/31/38	$1,216,543	TBD	$935,802	TBD	6.00%	0.00%	$52,970	0.85488141	2.13720354	106.86018
11/29/38	$1,285,886	TBD	$989,143	TBD	5.70%	95.00%	$53,341	0.80878090	2.02195226	101.09761
5/31/39	$1,355,517	TBD	$1,042,705	TBD	5.42%	95.00%	$53,562	0.76723512	1.91808780	95.90439
11/29/39	$1,425,248	TBD	$1,096,344	TBD	5.14%	95.00%	$53,639	0.72969765	1.82424413	91.21221
5/30/40	$1,539,268	TBD	$1,184,052	TBD	8.00%	0.00%	$87,708	0.67564597	1.68911493	84.45575
11/29/40	$1,664,872	TBD	$1,280,671	TBD	8.16%	102.00%	$96,619	0.62467268	1.56168170	78.08409
5/30/41	$1,803,443	TBD	$1,387,263	TBD	8.32%	102.00%	$106,593	0.57667488	1.44168720	72.08436
11/29/41	$1,956,549	TBD	$1,505,037	TBD	8.49%	102.00%	$117,774	0.53154822	1.32887055	66.44353
5/30/42	$2,054,376	TBD	$1,580,289	TBD	5.00%	0.00%	$75,252	0.50623640	1.26559100	63.27955
11/29/42	$2,151,959	TBD	$1,655,353	TBD	4.75%	95.00%	$75,064	0.48328057	1.20820143	60.41007
5/31/43	$2,249,066	TBD	$1,730,051	TBD	4.51%	95.00%	$74,698	0.46241414	1.15603534	57.80176690
11/29/43	$2,345,481	TBD	$1,804,216	TBD	4.29%	95.00%	$74,165	0.44340588	1.10851470	55.42573493
5/30/44	$2,509,665	TBD	$1,930,511	TBD	7.00%	0.00%	$126,295	0.41439802	1.03599505	51.79975227
11/28/44	$2,688,855	TBD	$2,068,350	TBD	7.14%	102.00%	$137,838	0.38678180	0.96695449	48.34772472
5/30/45	$2,884,678	TBD	$2,218,983	TBD	7.28%	102.00%	$150,634	0.36052545	0.90131363	45.06568129
11/29/45	$3,098,966	TBD	$2,383,820	TBD	7.43%	102.00%	$164,836	0.33559586	0.83898965	41.94948244
5/30/46	$3,222,924	TBD	$2,479,172	TBD	4.00%	0.00%	$95,353	0.32268833	0.80672082	40.33604081
11/29/46	$3,345,395	TBD	$2,573,381	TBD	3.80%	95.00%	$94,209	0.31087507	0.77718768	38.85938421
5/30/47	$3,466,164	TBD	$2,666,280	TBD	3.61%	95.00%	$92,899	0.30004350	0.75010876	37.50543790
11/29/47	$3,585,036	TBD	$2,757,720	TBD	3.43%	95.00%	$91,440	0.29009471	0.72523676	36.26183816
5/30/48	$3,800,138	TBD	$2,923,183	TBD	6.00%	0.00%	$165,463	0.27367425	0.68418563	34.20928128
11/28/48	$4,032,707	TBD	$3,102,082	TBD	6.12%	102.00%	$178,899	0.25789130	0.64472826	32.23641282
5/30/49	$4,284,444	TBD	$3,295,727	TBD	6.24%	102.00%	$193,644	0.24273859	0.60684647	30.34232361
11/28/49	$4,557,246	TBD	$3,505,574	TBD	6.37%	102.00%	$209,847	0.22820802	0.57052005	28.52600230
5/30/50	$4,693,963	TBD	$3,610,741	TBD	3.00%	0.00%	$105,167	0.22156118	0.55390296	27.69514786
11/29/50	$4,827,741	TBD	$3,713,647	TBD	2.85%	95.00%	$102,906	0.21542167	0.53855416	26.92770818
5/30/51	$4,958,452	TBD	$3,814,194	TBD	2.71%	95.00%	$100,547	0.20974288	0.52435719	26.21785963
11/29/51	$5,085,990	TBD	$3,912,300	TBD	2.57%	95.00%	$98,106	0.20448331	0.51120828	25.56041384
5/29/52	$5,340,289	TBD	$4,107,915	TBD	5.00%	0.00%	$195,615	0.19474601	0.48686503	24.34325127
11/28/52	$5,612,644	TBD	$4,317,418	TBD	5.10%	102.00%	$209,504	0.18529592	0.46323980	23.16198979
5/30/53	$5,904,614	TBD	$4,542,010	TBD	5.20%	102.00%	$224,592	0.17613346	0.44033364	22.01668200
11/28/53	$6,217,915	TBD	$4,783,011	TBD	5.31%	102.00%	$241,001	0.16725865	0.41814661	20.90733067
5/30/54	$6,404,452	TBD	$4,926,502	TBD	3.00%	0.00%	$143,490	0.16238703	0.40596759	20.29837929
11/28/54	$6,586,979	TBD	$5,066,907	TBD	2.85%	95.00%	$140,405	0.15788725	0.39471812	19.73590597
5/30/55	$6,765,322	TBD	$5,204,094	TBD	2.71%	95.00%	$137,187	0.15372514	0.38431285	19.21564245
11/29/55	$6,939,334	TBD	$5,337,949	TBD	2.57%	95.00%	$133,856	0.14987029	0.37467572	18.73378605
5/29/56	$7,216,907	TBD	$5,551,467	TBD	4.00%	0.00%	$213,518	0.14410605	0.36026512	18.01325582
11/28/56	$7,511,357	TBD	$5,777,967	TBD	4.08%	102.00%	$226,500	0.13845700	0.34614250	17.30712512
5/29/57	$7,823,950	TBD	$6,018,423	TBD	4.16%	102.00%	$240,456	0.13292519	0.33231297	16.61564830
11/28/57	$8,156,063	TBD	$6,273,895	TBD	4.24%	102.00%	$255,472	0.12751250	0.31878124	15.93906190
5/30/58	$8,400,745	TBD	$6,462,112	TBD	3.00%	0.00%	$188,217	0.12379854	0.30949635	15.47481738
11/28/58	$8,640,167	TBD	$6,646,282	TBD	2.85%	95.00%	$184,170	0.12036805	0.30092012	15.04600620
5/30/59	$8,874,099	TBD	$6,826,230	TBD	2.71%	95.00%	$179,948	0.11719500	0.29298749	14.64937439
11/28/59	$9,102,352	TBD	$7,001,809	TBD	2.57%	95.00%	$175,579	0.11425618	0.28564046	14.28202291
5/29/60	$9,466,446	TBD	$7,281,882	TBD	4.00%	0.00%	$280,072	0.10986171	0.27465429	13.73271433
11/28/60	$9,852,677	TBD	$7,578,982	TBD	4.08%	102.00%	$297,101	0.10555507	0.26388767	13.19438349

I could not post the second part of it I always get an error? Is there a size limit for tables or maybe per user rank? Because if I preview it in another post that only has the second part it works.

Code:

[table]
[tr][td][/td] [td][/td] [td][/td] [td][/td] [td][/td] [td][/td] [td][/td] [td][/td] [td][b]$800k[/b][/td] [td][b]$2 million[/b][/td] [td][b]$100 million[/b][/td][/tr]
[tr][td][b]Date[/b]          [/td][td][b]Projected SpotPrice[/b]     [/td][td][b]Real SpotPrice[/b]     [/td][td][b]Projected 200 WMA[/b]     [/td][td][b]Real 200 WMA[/b]     [/td][td][b]%gain/time[/b]     [/td][td][b]Spotvs200[/b]     [/td][td][b]gain/time[/b]     [/td][td][b]Coins/10%FU Status[/b]     [/td][td][b]Coins/4%FU Status[/b]     [/td][td][b]Filthy-Rich[/b][/td]
[/tr][tr][td]5/29/61[/td][td]$10,262,706[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$7,894,389[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]4.16%[/td][td]102.00%[/td][td]$315,407[/td][td]0.10133779[/td][td]0.25334449[/td][td]12.66722428[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]11/28/61[/td][td]$10,698,341[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$8,229,493[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]4.24%[/td][td]102.00%[/td][td]$335,104[/td][td]0.09721134[/td][td]0.24302834[/td][td]12.15141704[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]5/29/62[/td][td]$11,019,291[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$8,476,378[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]3.00%[/td][td]0.00%[/td][td]$246,885[/td][td]0.09437994[/td][td]0.23594985[/td][td]11.79749227[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]11/28/62[/td][td]$11,333,341[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$8,717,954[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]2.85%[/td][td]95.00%[/td][td]$241,577[/td][td]0.09176465[/td][td]0.22941161[/td][td]11.47058072[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]5/30/63[/td][td]$11,640,191[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$8,953,993[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]2.71%[/td][td]95.00%[/td][td]$236,039[/td][td]0.08934561[/td][td]0.22336403[/td][td]11.16820166[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]11/28/63[/td][td]$11,939,591[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$9,184,301[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]2.57%[/td][td]95.00%[/td][td]$230,308[/td][td]0.08710516[/td][td]0.21776290[/td][td]10.88814496[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]5/29/64[/td][td]$12,417,175[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$9,551,673[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]4.00%[/td][td]0.00%[/td][td]$367,372[/td][td]0.08375496[/td][td]0.20938740[/td][td]10.46937016[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]11/27/64[/td][td]$12,923,796[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$9,941,381[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]4.08%[/td][td]102.00%[/td][td]$389,708[/td][td]0.08047172[/td][td]0.20117929[/td][td]10.05896441[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]5/29/65[/td][td]$13,461,632[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$10,355,102[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]4.16%[/td][td]102.00%[/td][td]$413,721[/td][td]0.07725660[/td][td]0.19314151[/td][td]9.65707555[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]11/28/65[/td][td]$14,033,056[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$10,794,658[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]4.24%[/td][td]102.00%[/td][td]$439,557[/td][td]0.07411073[/td][td]0.18527682[/td][td]9.26384106[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]5/29/66[/td][td]$14,454,048[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$11,118,498[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]3.00%[/td][td]0.00%[/td][td]$323,840[/td][td]0.07195216[/td][td]0.17988041[/td][td]8.99402045[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]11/28/66[/td][td]$14,865,988[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$11,435,375[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]2.85%[/td][td]95.00%[/td][td]$316,877[/td][td]0.06995835[/td][td]0.17489588[/td][td]8.74479383[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]5/29/67[/td][td]$15,268,485[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$11,744,988[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]2.71%[/td][td]95.00%[/td][td]$309,613[/td][td]0.06811416[/td][td]0.17028540[/td][td]8.51426997[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]11/28/67[/td][td]$15,661,209[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$12,047,084[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]2.57%[/td][td]95.00%[/td][td]$302,096[/td][td]0.06640611[/td][td]0.16601528[/td][td]8.30076394[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]5/29/68[/td][td]$16,287,657[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$12,528,967[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]4.00%[/td][td]0.00%[/td][td]$481,883[/td][td]0.06385203[/td][td]0.15963008[/td][td]7.98150379[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]11/27/68[/td][td]$16,952,194[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$13,040,149[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]4.08%[/td][td]102.00%[/td][td]$511,182[/td][td]0.06134899[/td][td]0.15337248[/td][td]7.66862393[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]5/29/69[/td][td]$17,657,676[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$13,582,828[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]4.16%[/td][td]102.00%[/td][td]$542,679[/td][td]0.05889790[/td][td]0.14724474[/td][td]7.36223708[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]11/27/69[/td][td]$18,407,215[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$14,159,396[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]4.24%[/td][td]102.00%[/td][td]$576,568[/td][td]0.05649958[/td][td]0.14124896[/td][td]7.06244802[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]5/29/70[/td][td]$18,959,432[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$14,584,178[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]3.00%[/td][td]0.00%[/td][td]$424,782[/td][td]0.05485397[/td][td]0.13713491[/td][td]6.85674565[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]11/28/70[/td][td]$19,499,775[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$14,999,827[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]2.85%[/td][td]95.00%[/td][td]$415,649[/td][td]0.05333395[/td][td]0.13333487[/td][td]6.66674346[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]5/29/71[/td][td]$20,027,732[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$15,405,948[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]2.71%[/td][td]95.00%[/td][td]$406,120[/td][td]0.05192800[/td][td]0.12981999[/td][td]6.49099965[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]11/28/71[/td][td]$20,542,870[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$15,802,208[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]2.57%[/td][td]95.00%[/td][td]$396,260[/td][td]0.05062584[/td][td]0.12656459[/td][td]6.32822967[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]5/28/72[/td][td]$21,364,585[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$16,434,296[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]4.00%[/td][td]0.00%[/td][td]$632,088[/td][td]0.04867869[/td][td]0.12169672[/td][td]6.08483622[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]11/27/72[/td][td]$22,236,260[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$17,104,815[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]4.08%[/td][td]102.00%[/td][td]$670,519[/td][td]0.04677046[/td][td]0.11692614[/td][td]5.84630690[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]5/29/73[/td][td]$23,161,644[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$17,816,649[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]4.16%[/td][td]102.00%[/td][td]$711,834[/td][td]0.04490182[/td][td]0.11225455[/td][td]5.61272763[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]11/27/73[/td][td]$24,144,817[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$18,572,936[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]4.24%[/td][td]102.00%[/td][td]$756,287[/td][td]0.04307343[/td][td]0.10768357[/td][td]5.38417830[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]5/29/74[/td][td]$24,869,162[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$19,130,124[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]3.00%[/td][td]0.00%[/td][td]$557,188[/td][td]0.04181886[/td][td]0.10454715[/td][td]5.22735758[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]11/27/74[/td][td]$25,577,933[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$19,675,333[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]2.85%[/td][td]95.00%[/td][td]$545,209[/td][td]0.04066005[/td][td]0.10165012[/td][td]5.08250615[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]5/29/75[/td][td]$26,270,455[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$20,208,042[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]2.71%[/td][td]95.00%[/td][td]$532,710[/td][td]0.03958820[/td][td]0.09897050[/td][td]4.94852484[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]11/28/75[/td][td]$26,946,164[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$20,727,819[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]2.57%[/td][td]95.00%[/td][td]$519,776[/td][td]0.03859547[/td][td]0.09648869[/td][td]4.82443436[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]5/28/76[/td][td]$28,024,011[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$21,556,931[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]4.00%[/td][td]0.00%[/td][td]$829,113[/td][td]0.03711103[/td][td]0.09277758[/td][td]4.63887919[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]11/27/76[/td][td]$29,167,390[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$22,436,454[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]4.08%[/td][td]102.00%[/td][td]$879,523[/td][td]0.03565626[/td][td]0.08914065[/td][td]4.45703227[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]5/28/77[/td][td]$30,381,220[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$23,370,170[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]4.16%[/td][td]102.00%[/td][td]$933,715[/td][td]0.03423167[/td][td]0.08557918[/td][td]4.27895911[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]11/27/77[/td][td]$31,670,852[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$24,362,194[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]4.24%[/td][td]102.00%[/td][td]$992,024[/td][td]0.03283776[/td][td]0.08209441[/td][td]4.10472062[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]5/29/78[/td][td]$32,620,978[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$25,093,060[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]3.00%[/td][td]0.00%[/td][td]$730,866[/td][td]0.03188133[/td][td]0.07970331[/td][td]3.98516565[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]11/27/78[/td][td]$33,550,676[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$25,808,212[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]2.85%[/td][td]95.00%[/td][td]$715,152[/td][td]0.03099789[/td][td]0.07749471[/td][td]3.87473568[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]5/29/79[/td][td]$34,459,060[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$26,506,969[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]2.71%[/td][td]95.00%[/td][td]$698,757[/td][td]0.03018074[/td][td]0.07545185[/td][td]3.77259273[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]11/27/79[/td][td]$35,345,390[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$27,188,762[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]2.57%[/td][td]95.00%[/td][td]$681,792[/td][td]0.02942392[/td][td]0.07355980[/td][td]3.67799023[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]5/28/80[/td][td]$36,759,206[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$28,276,312[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]4.00%[/td][td]0.00%[/td][td]$1,087,550[/td][td]0.02829223[/td][td]0.07073058[/td][td]3.53652906[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]11/27/80[/td][td]$38,258,981[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$29,429,986[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]4.08%[/td][td]102.00%[/td][td]$1,153,674[/td][td]0.02718316[/td][td]0.06795790[/td][td]3.39789495[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]5/28/81[/td][td]$39,851,167[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$30,654,744[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]4.16%[/td][td]102.00%[/td][td]$1,224,758[/td][td]0.02609710[/td][td]0.06524276[/td][td]3.26213782[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]11/27/81[/td][td]$41,542,782[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$31,955,986[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]4.24%[/td][td]102.00%[/td][td]$1,301,242[/td][td]0.02503443[/td][td]0.06258608[/td][td]3.12930412[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]5/28/82[/td][td]$42,789,066[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$32,914,666[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]3.00%[/td][td]0.00%[/td][td]$958,680[/td][td]0.02430527[/td][td]0.06076319[/td][td]3.03815934[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]11/27/82[/td][td]$44,008,554[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$33,852,734[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]2.85%[/td][td]95.00%[/td][td]$938,068[/td][td]0.02363177[/td][td]0.05907942[/td][td]2.95397116[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]5/29/83[/td][td]$45,200,086[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$34,769,297[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]2.71%[/td][td]95.00%[/td][td]$916,563[/td][td]0.02300881[/td][td]0.05752201[/td][td]2.87610073[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]11/27/83[/td][td]$46,362,689[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$35,663,607[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]2.57%[/td][td]95.00%[/td][td]$894,310[/td][td]0.02243183[/td][td]0.05607958[/td][td]2.80397889[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]5/28/84[/td][td]$48,217,196[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$37,090,151[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]4.00%[/td][td]0.00%[/td][td]$1,426,544[/td][td]0.02156907[/td][td]0.05392267[/td][td]2.69613355[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]11/26/84[/td][td]$50,184,458[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$38,603,429[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]4.08%[/td][td]102.00%[/td][td]$1,513,278[/td][td]0.02072355[/td][td]0.05180887[/td][td]2.59044346[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]5/28/85[/td][td]$52,272,934[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$40,209,949[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]4.16%[/td][td]102.00%[/td][td]$1,606,520[/td][td]0.01989557[/td][td]0.04973893[/td][td]2.48694668[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]11/27/85[/td][td]$54,491,832[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$41,916,794[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]4.24%[/td][td]102.00%[/td][td]$1,706,845[/td][td]0.01908543[/td][td]0.04771357[/td][td]2.38567863[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]5/28/86[/td][td]$56,126,587[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$43,174,298[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]3.00%[/td][td]0.00%[/td][td]$1,257,504[/td][td]0.01852954[/td][td]0.04632386[/td][td]2.31619285[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]11/27/86[/td][td]$57,726,195[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$44,404,765[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]2.85%[/td][td]95.00%[/td][td]$1,230,467[/td][td]0.01801608[/td][td]0.04504021[/td][td]2.25201055[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]5/28/87[/td][td]$59,289,132[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$45,607,024[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]2.71%[/td][td]95.00%[/td][td]$1,202,259[/td][td]0.01754116[/td][td]0.04385289[/td][td]2.19264469[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]11/27/87[/td][td]$60,814,122[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$46,780,094[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]2.57%[/td][td]95.00%[/td][td]$1,173,070[/td][td]0.01710129[/td][td]0.04275323[/td][td]2.13766137[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]5/28/88[/td][td]$63,246,687[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$48,651,298[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]4.00%[/td][td]0.00%[/td][td]$1,871,204[/td][td]0.01644355[/td][td]0.04110887[/td][td]2.05544363[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]11/26/88[/td][td]$65,827,152[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$50,636,271[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]4.08%[/td][td]102.00%[/td][td]$1,984,973[/td][td]0.01579895[/td][td]0.03949738[/td][td]1.97486897[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]5/28/89[/td][td]$68,566,615[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$52,743,550[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]4.16%[/td][td]102.00%[/td][td]$2,107,279[/td][td]0.01516773[/td][td]0.03791933[/td][td]1.89596643[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]11/26/89[/td][td]$71,477,152[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$54,982,425[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]4.24%[/td][td]102.00%[/td][td]$2,238,875[/td][td]0.01455010[/td][td]0.03637526[/td][td]1.81876300[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]5/28/90[/td][td]$73,621,467[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$56,631,898[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]3.00%[/td][td]0.00%[/td][td]$1,649,473[/td][td]0.01412631[/td][td]0.03531579[/td][td]1.76578932[/td]
[/tr][tr][td]11/27/90[/td][td]$75,719,679[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]$58,245,907[/td][td]TBD[/td][td]2.85%[/td][td]95.00%[/td][td]$1,614,009[/td][td]0.01373487[/td][td]0.03433718[/td][td]1.71685884[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Well the table can be split into two, where all existing entries that are based on things that actually happened are in the first table and then comes a slightly modified table that includes prediction too. I will try to provide it in this post.

That does look nicer and is a bit easier to read when the past actual data and the projected are in different tables - but it is nice to have them on the same page too, to be able to compare the past, actual data, versus the projections of how the numbers might play out in coming years.

[edited out]

I understand. I am merely impressed by this idea here as I have stated in other threads during our discussions even if they are not really something new as you have indicated yourself.

I suppose some ideas involve my taking ideas from other places (and people), and then other places I have put together my own metrics, theories and interpretations  to attempt to apply the principles to bitcoin.

Still, it would be really interesting to me to see how accurate your predictions based on this strategy are going to be.

We do not have a lot of data, and we might even consider that the first 3-4 years might not be very good to count, since even the 200-WMA was built upon incomplete data since there was not even 4 years of bitcoin price history prior to 2014, and even the pre-2014 data was during a period in whihc bitcoin was such a niche asset..

So maybe we can ONLY start to take the 200-WMA data somewhat seriously in late 2014, so if we might look at the percentage increases in the 200-WMA per 6 month period, the range is 126.78% on the high end, and 9.17% on the low end.  I am not sure if we have enough data, yet we might be able to project a bit of a decreasing increase in the 200-WMA, yet at the same time, since the 200-WMA is a lagging indicator, we can also potentially see that we might need to reduce our withdrawal rate before it comes, since we might be deciding to withdraw from our BTC holdings based on the 200-WMA (bottom numbers rather than all-over-the-place BTC spot price numbers).  

So if we were to be engaged in time-based sustainable withdrawal, we might make adjustments to our withdrawals based on what we see in the price and perhaps how far the BTC price is from the 200-WMA in either one direction or another direction.

It would be nice to look back 5 or 10 years from now on. If it ends up being quite accurate then that gives it some extra likeliness that it will continue to be a good strategy!

I was battling a bit with bitmover regarding the practicality of the back-testing tool that he created and put on the website (he labelled it as "Simulation), yet I think that the back testing "Simulation" tool holds up quite well to project withdrawing from BTC holdings based on the various formulas that I had suggested that would include individualized inputting of the data.   You might have to play around with it to give you hypotheticals regarding how many coins that you might have had when you started with such method of withdrawal and then see how many coins you would have today based on how you had chosen to withdraw from your then stash several years in the past.

Now if we are really lucky here this could unintended create a legendary moment similar to the origin of HODL. For that you have to be pretty accurate and for that we have to compare projected price to what actually happened. 

Of course, I am striving to try to be accurate, yet I expect that every 6 months (or whenever I update the current numbers, then the future projections are going to be affected every 6 months, so maybe there might be some 6 month periods that I am within 10% of getting it right and then there are other 6  months that my numbers might be off by 20% to 30% or more, so then I would just attempt to adjust and maybe, sure, I could reconsider if my projections might need to be adjusted to account for whatever historical pattern appears to be happening.

On an individual level, many of us might merely need to be ballparkedly in the right direction, since maybe we have leeway and cushion within our own holdings, whether we are more exclusively retaining bitcoin and dollars or if we might have some other assets and/or income sources.

I have been personally testing it out with a pilot program since 2022, and the system is working great - and actually the system is working in a way that the spending is sticking to 4% rather than 10% withdrawal, even though it could have had gone to the 10% withdrawal formula and it would have had been just fine in regards to the amount of bitcoin spent from the system... So largely the bitcoin holdings are growing way faster than the withdrawal rate, which is not necessarily a bad problem to have.

Anyway so here is my attempt at the table... let me know how you feel about it. This would be the first part with real things and the 3 categories aligned in the first row.

[two tables edited out]

Yeah.  Putting it into two tables does come off as being more clear about past numbers as compared with the future projections.. makes it more readable to separate the two data sets out like that.  We could consider if the the next update in the end of November, might be able to get posted as two tables.

By the way, it is looking almost impossible to get to my $68,699 projection since my current numbers on my spreadsheet are looking a lot lower based on how the past 4 months have been going and that there are ONLY two months left.. so finishing somewhere in the $55k to $60k arena is looking more realistic, unless there is some kind of explosive UPwards movement in the coming two months... Oh, and I am mostly paying attention to the 200-WMA since the spot price is merely 30% higher than the 200-WMA.

I could not post the second part of it I always get an error? Is there a size limit for tables or maybe per user rank? Because if I preview it in another post that only has the second part it works.

Yep.  There is some kind of a limit, and I believe it is the same for everyone (not based on forum rank).   There might be some tricks.  We could ask Dirty Keyboard how he figured out some way to post a lot of tables every day.  There might be some kind of a trick that he does.

[joker_josue]

Yep.  There is some kind of a limit, and I believe it is the same for everyone (not based on forum rank).   There might be some tricks.  We could ask Dirty Keyboard how he figured out some way to post a lot of tables every day.  There might be some kind of a trick that he does.

What it does is post everything in lines and doesn't use tables. 

To make it work, I suggest subdividing the larger table into another one, but without the header and immediately after, for continuous reading.

[MrNata]

Please clarify when you actually sell bitcoin so you can profit.
What are your sell parameters and have any of them been met since you started buying btc or have you only held and never sold?
Just Curious. 

Sell means Buying Again from a setisfied price close to me.

If you are selling Intelligently sell on a Price in which you are not lossing much and Market is in its Top Blossom then Market will make corrections Buy such dips and stay Happy as Taking profit as well not lossing valueable assets.

It is difficult to have an idea about every change in the market and it takes a lot of time, so I think that buying Bitcoin and keeping it for a long time is a good idea, so an investor does not have to spend a lot of time thinking about the changes in the market movement. If we have such an idea that we will sell, buy again, buy again, sell again, then our profit will not be very high, so we should hold on to them without paying multiple trading fees and set a specific time so that the investor can sell his investment after a certain time or after a certain profit.

[Dogedegen]

That does look nicer and is a bit easier to read when the past actual data and the projected are in different tables - but it is nice to have them on the same page too, to be able to compare the past, actual data, versus the projections of how the numbers might play out in coming years.

Well yeah, keep them on the same page just split them according to our needs and preferences.

We do not have a lot of data, and we might even consider that the first 3-4 years might not be very good to count, since even the 200-WMA was built upon incomplete data since there was not even 4 years of bitcoin price history prior to 2014, and even the pre-2014 data was during a period in whihc bitcoin was such a niche asset..
So maybe we can ONLY start to take the 200-WMA data somewhat seriously in late 2014, so if we might look at the percentage increases in the 200-WMA per 6 month period, the range is 126.78% on the high end, and 9.17% on the low end.

Well that would be more precise. You could remove it or mark it as N/A in the table for this time period because it does not make sense to have it built on incomplete data to me.

I was battling a bit with bitmover regarding the practicality of the back-testing tool that he created and put on the website (he labelled it as "Simulation), yet I think that the back testing "Simulation" tool holds up quite well to project withdrawing from BTC holdings based on the various formulas that I had suggested that would include individualized inputting of the data.   You might have to play around with it to give you hypotheticals regarding how many coins that you might have had when you started with such method of withdrawal and then see how many coins you would have today based on how you had chosen to withdraw from your then stash several years in the past.

I played around a little bit a few days ago, it was interesting to see. Still there is a small argument to be made against backtesting in terms of it being adequate evidence for a functioning strategy. If you know past results you can make a strategy today that will work great if you backtest it. A kind of strategy hindsight bias thing. Even if you are not purposely trying to manipulate the strategy to fit the past results to make it work there are so many biases that subtly play in a person's head when devising one because of all the knowledge one has about a previous period of time. I am not saying here is any case of manipulation of course! I am trying to explain why it is more interesting or objective to see how the strategy plays out in the future as that data is not predictable and you can't adjust it to make it work for unknown events of the future. Either it will work or it won't.

Of course, I am striving to try to be accurate, yet I expect that every 6 months (or whenever I update the current numbers, then the future projections are going to be affected every 6 months, so maybe there might be some 6 month periods that I am within 10% of getting it right and then there are other 6  months that my numbers might be off by 20% to 30% or more, so then I would just attempt to adjust and maybe, sure, I could reconsider if my projections might need to be adjusted to account for whatever historical pattern appears to be happening.

Small fluctuations are to be expected though otherwise people may see you as a God.   It would be a nice visualization to chart these fluctuations later. Maybe there will be a trend in them. Maybe the fluctuation % reduces over time as Bitcoin matures more and this strategy gains accuracy as time passes, something like that.

By the way, it is looking almost impossible to get to my $68,699 projection since my current numbers on my spreadsheet are looking a lot lower based on how the past 4 months have been going and that there are ONLY two months left.. so finishing somewhere in the $55k to $60k arena is looking more realistic, unless there is some kind of explosive UPwards movement in the coming two months... Oh, and I am mostly paying attention to the 200-WMA since the spot price is merely 30% higher than the 200-WMA.

I think everything is on the table for Q4. Let's wait and see!

Yep.  There is some kind of a limit, and I believe it is the same for everyone (not based on forum rank).   There might be some tricks.  We could ask Dirty Keyboard how he figured out some way to post a lot of tables every day.  There might be some kind of a trick that he does.

What it does is post everything in lines and doesn't use tables.  

To make it work, I suggest subdividing the larger table into another one, but without the header and immediately after, for continuous reading.

Unless I did something wrong it doesn't work this way. I think the reason is because the second table won't follow the column layout and spacing without the header. Here is how it was.



The other way would be to just split the table in two, I don't see why not? Repeat the header at some point like 2050 or 2060.




It would be possible to do it with spaces or hidden characters but then we would be fiddling around a lot trying to get it consistent. If there are ever some larger changes in the table it will need manual adjusting again. I think a clean split into two is better. Anyway for people who are not very familiar with this table they are likely to forget which heading is which when they are looking at a long table like this somewhere in the middle or at the end. So there is a benefit to having the header come up again.  

[JayJuanGee]

Yep.  There is some kind of a limit, and I believe it is the same for everyone (not based on forum rank).   There might be some tricks.  We could ask Dirty Keyboard how he figured out some way to post a lot of tables every day.  There might be some kind of a trick that he does.

What it does is post everything in lines and doesn't use tables. 

To make it work, I suggest subdividing the larger table into another one, but without the header and immediately after, for continuous reading.

So then it seems that a line version would be better, at least for the larger tables to the extent to which anyone is interested in seeing (at a glance) how the numbers project out, even though the further that the numbers are projected out, the more abstract they become.

I also like to consider that when we are projecting out, we are projecting out in today's dollars - even though that might be unrealistic too, yet it is way too difficult to know how much the dollar will debase, and it seems less concrete if we might project out in terms of Big Macs or some other goods/services (Hookers, Lambos and Blow) that might be a bit more of a constant... In the sense that I am projecting in today's dollars, then I am surely going to be wrong, since it is quite likely that the dollar will continue to debase beyond recognition, and there may well need to be some kind of a currency reset in the coming 30-50 years, since it is so difficult to know how TPTB (the powers that be) are going to be able to keep kicking the can down the road in regards to their abilities to breathe life back into a system that is becoming increasingly perverted by its level of ongoing debasement.

I don't mind the idea of being able to continuously read, yet it seems to me that if the header is removed between the two tables, then it might just get us back to where we were previously - in terms of my having had put the data into one table - even though surely the divide in two tables does seem to make it more obvious that something is different between the first table and the second table (past facts versus future projections).

It seems that some of my earlier tables, I was only able to post until 2074, and AlcoHoDL was able to figure out a way to get it to post until 2090 - even though my actual data in my Excel spread sheet (that can be changed on a whim) goes until 2157.  Dogedegen's latest future projection table was ONLY able to post the data up until 2060 (at least partly explained by trying to put two tables in one post).

 I thought that there was some curiosity (and potential value) in terms of being able to see the data projection out until the currently planned end of the block rewards in about 2140, and then perhaps to attempt to project 10-20 years beyond anticipated end of the block rewards.  Even with relatively low CAGRs, the amounts become so astonishingly large, so it becomes hard to know if something is likely to be missing in attempts to project out that far, since we cannot necessarily anticipate the impacts of any future discoveries/inventions and at the same time, great set-backs could end up playing out too, which ends up changing the whole calculous, just like in the 19th century, the impact of electricity, the automobile, the airplane, microprocessors (like the computer), the internet and/or great technologies (potentially including bitcoin) would have had greatly affected the 19th century predictions that largely predated such inventions/discoveries.

Please clarify when you actually sell bitcoin so you can profit.
What are your sell parameters and have any of them been met since you started buying btc or have you only held and never sold?
Just Curious. 

Sell means Buying Again from a setisfied price close to me.

If you are selling Intelligently sell on a Price in which you are not lossing much and Market is in its Top Blossom then Market will make corrections Buy such dips and stay Happy as Taking profit as well not lossing valueable assets.

It is difficult to have an idea about every change in the market and it takes a lot of time, so I think that buying Bitcoin and keeping it for a long time is a good idea, so an investor does not have to spend a lot of time thinking about the changes in the market movement. If we have such an idea that we will sell, buy again, buy again, sell again, then our profit will not be very high, so we should hold on to them without paying multiple trading fees and set a specific time so that the investor can sell his investment after a certain time or after a certain profit.

Within both my investment ideas thread and my sustainable withdrawal thread, I presume that a person needs to reach a status of overaccumulation before he should be authorizing himself to sell any of his bitcoin stash.  Part of the rationale is that the accumulation of bitcoin is accomplished better by ongoing buying of bitcoin, and if you engage in selling in order to try to accumulate more bitcoin, you are going down a path of taking chances (gambling) that you would be able to accumulate more bitcoin with that method rather than just sticking with ongoing buying of bitcoin (or at least HODLing during periods in which you are witnessing the BTC price going down rather than up).

I consider that the implications of reaching overaccumulation status allows a guy to authorize himself to be able to sell within the overaccumulated amount since he no longer needs to accumulate bitcoin, he can sell some of his bitcoin within the overaccumulated amount, which would not necessarily mean that he is aiming to buy back any BTC with whatever amount that he sold yet he could end up buying back if the BTC price ends up going down (even though his aim was not necessarily to sell in order to buy back cheaper).

In this regard, his being in overaccumulation status would give him freedom (or self-authorization) to be able to sell within the overaccumulated amount and perhaps to be able to bring himself back to sufficient accumulation (by having had sold some BTC) and no longer being in overaccumulation status... At the same time, not selling so much BTC as to put him back into a situation in which he determines that he has to resume accumulating BTC.

Of course, guys are likely to come to differing ideas and definitions regarding what overaccumulation might mean to them and they might even make mistakes in regards to their being in overaccumulation status, whether thinking in terms of long term, medium term or short term.  

Even my own ideas and definitions regarding overaccumulation status has changed through the years that I have been in bitcoin and/or when I first came to the conclusion that I had reached adequate and/or overaccumulation status in late 2014.  In late 2014, I had considered that I had reached sufficient accumulation status when more or less my the amount that I had invested into bitcoin had more or less equalled 10% of the quasi-liquid value of all of the other assets in my then investment portfolio.  Therefore, in late 2014, I concluded that I could largely rest, settle down and/or not be so anxious about accumulating bitcoin because I largely met my target and I had enough.   I thought to myself that perhaps, I might just buy bitcoin from time to time to make sure that it retained itself at around 10% of the size of my quasi-liquid investment portfolio, yet I had no reason to really try to continue to accumulate it or to sell it.  

At that time, part of my own problem came with BTC dropping in price after I had made the determination that I had enough... When I first determined that I had enough (which was like September / October 2014) BTC prices were around $380-ish, so I was thinking that the then BTC price dip that had extended pretty much throughout 2014 was at or near its bottom, so then from there on out even if we might have some temporary ups and downs, we would likely float around in the $300s to $400s for an undetermined amount of time, and maybe slowly climb back up in price over the next 1-4 years or whatever.  

I was still fairly new to bitcoin, so I did not want to attempt to place any outrageous expectations, yet I considered if bitcoin could grow from $300s with more or less on average of 6% to 10% per year growth for the coming few years or even into the long run, I would be more than happy with those kinds of price performance results.  Surely, I knew about various theories of greater BTC price performance, and I did not consider greater performance to be outside of the realm of possibilities, yet at the same time, I did not want to overly get my hopes up with "pie in the sky" ideas that may or may not end up happening.

Anyhow, I am supposed to be talking about how my perceptions of overaccumulation status ended up changing in part based on bitcoin's price performance during my early years and after I had already tentatively concluded that I had enough or more than enough bitcoin.  Largely what happened in late 2014 and into almost all of 2015, is that BTC prices largely dropped another 70% or more so largely bitcoin prices were mostly caught between the lower to mid $200s for an overwhelming majority of 2015, which largely stimulated me to continue to buy bitcoin beyond what I had earlier thought that I was going to do, which ended up bringing my BTC holdings to around 13.5% by late 2015, so largely I considered myself to be in overaccumulation status by around 3.5%.  

Another situation that came from arriving at overaccumulation status prior to the price pump that came after 2015 is that my 13.5% allocation, went up to around 85% allocation towards the 2017 peak and then dropped back down to as low as 45% allocation during the lowest of the 2018 price drops, yet during some point in that process (perhaps the run up to 2017), even though I developed (and practiced) a kind of process of selling on the way up and buying on the way down (which would be price based selling and/or price-based sustainable withdrawal), I came to a determine to sell no more than 10% of my holdings for every doubling of the BTC price (which ultimately ended up being a selling of less than 5% for every doubling of the BTC price), which largely meant that I was both letting my winner (BTC) ride and also able to enjoy the compounding of bitcoin's value each time that it doubled in price and I choose to not sell the majority part of the profits that were rolling over.  If you think about it, every time BTC (or any other asset) doubles in price, then half of it could be conceived as profits and the other half could be conceived as the principle... so largely I stuck with letting the BTC ride and letting the profits compound.. and engaged in only low levels of cashing out of profits, such as around 5% for ever doubling, as I already mentioned..

There is probably nothing wrong with my earlier way of assessing overaccumulation status, which then allows price-based sustainable withdrawal selling, even though now days, I like to consider/assess overaccumulation status in regards to how close my portfolio (or anyone's portfolio for that matter) might be towards being able to start to sustainably withdraw from it in a time-based kind of way, which seems to be a higher standard of sustainable withdrawal to be able to come to an assessment that your portfolio can be withdrawn from at any time and at any price as long as the size of the portfolio is within overaccumulation status and the withdrawals are not so great as to be greater than the ongoing growth of the bitcoin holdings... .  

Time-based sustainable withdrawal seems to be a higher status to achieve, yet it seems to give more liberties, even though surely both time-based sustainable withdrawal and price-based sustainable withdrawal can simultaneously achieved and a person can still stay within overaccumulation status while employing each of these sustainable withdrawal systems -since who should want to spend 4-10 years or longer getting his bitcoin holdings into overaccumulation status and then selling so many coins that he puts himself out of overaccumulation status and having to reaccumulate in order to return to such status?

For me, it does not seem logical to ever knock yourself out of BTC overaccumulation status once you have gone through whatever efforts of time and/or ongoing accumulation in order to reach such overaccumulation status.

[Joeboy]

Please clarify when you actually sell bitcoin so you can profit.
What are your sell parameters and have any of them been met since you started buying btc or have you only held and never sold?
Just Curious. 

Sell means Buying Again from a setisfied price close to me.

If you are selling Intelligently sell on a Price in which you are not lossing much and Market is in its Top Blossom then Market will make corrections Buy such dips and stay Happy as Taking profit as well not lossing valueable assets.

It is difficult to have an idea about every change in the market and it takes a lot of time, so I think that buying Bitcoin and keeping it for a long time is a good idea, so an investor does not have to spend a lot of time thinking about the changes in the market movement. If we have such an idea that we will sell, buy again, buy again, sell again, then our profit will not be very high, so we should hold on to them without paying multiple trading fees and set a specific time so that the investor can sell his investment after a certain time or after a certain profit.

Apartt from profitability, there are also so many other benefits that comes when an investor approaches Bitcoin with a long term mentality( 4-10years+). For this benefits to be fully actualized the investor has to have a solid strategy( like DCA), a discretionary income, a safety net( emergency funds) .....

Some of this benefits includes:

1) Reduced stress emotionally
2) Protection from panic or forced selling
3) Freedom from trying to time the market perfectly
4) A steadyy growthh of one's Bitcoin's portfolio regardless of short term price swings...etc.

[JayJuanGee]

That does look nicer and is a bit easier to read when the past actual data and the projected are in different tables - but it is nice to have them on the same page too, to be able to compare the past, actual data, versus the projections of how the numbers might play out in coming years.

Well yeah, keep them on the same page just split them according to our needs and preferences.

Whoops.  I misspoke since I was thinking that the two tables should be in the same post - not just on the same page.

We do not have a lot of data, and we might even consider that the first 3-4 years might not be very good to count, since even the 200-WMA was built upon incomplete data since there was not even 4 years of bitcoin price history prior to 2014, and even the pre-2014 data was during a period in whihc bitcoin was such a niche asset..
So maybe we can ONLY start to take the 200-WMA data somewhat seriously in late 2014, so if we might look at the percentage increases in the 200-WMA per 6 month period, the range is 126.78% on the high end, and 9.17% on the low end.

Well that would be more precise. You could remove it or mark it as N/A in the table for this time period because it does not make sense to have it built on incomplete data to me.

I still like to see that data, even though maybe it is depicting something else.. since we could not have a 200-WMA if we do not have 200 weeks within the data set, so if the data set is drawing on another quantity of weeks, then it would start out being perhaps 20 weeks when there is 20 weeks of data, then it becomes 50 weeks once there is a year-ish of data, then it becomes 100 weeks when there is 2 years of data and finally graduating to showing the actual 200 WMA once there are 200 weeks of data.  

Right now, I am thinking that it is too much work to remove it, even if we can note that it is depicting a shorter period of time until all of the data is there in order for it to constitute 200 weeks worth of data... And, I am not personally coming to great conclusions regarding that pre-2014 data, and frequently I have enjoyed asserting that BTC's price should not even be counted pior to 2012.. .... so if we look at January 2012 we can approximate (maybe guess) a price in which the spot price and the 200-WMA are ballparkedly at a similar point - $5.. and so then we can start to calculate from there.. even though, sure, maybe it is a bit of a fantasy, and maybe bitcoin's price has to start in 2014 or sometime soon thereafter, at some point when the 200-WMA (actual data) and the BTC price might have been at or near a similar price point.. ..which might be using something in the ballpark of $200 as our bitcoin price (and 200-WMA) starting point.  

Note: Take me with a bit of a grain of salt, since this is the first time that I am articulating such a new framework based on my currently thinking about both 1) the lack of data issue and then 2) at what point after there was sufficient data were both the 200-WMA and the BTC spot price at a similar place, and that likely could have had been somewhere around March 1, 2015.

I was battling a bit with bitmover regarding the practicality of the back-testing tool that he created and put on the website (he labelled it as "Simulation), yet I think that the back testing "Simulation" tool holds up quite well to project withdrawing from BTC holdings based on the various formulas that I had suggested that would include individualized inputting of the data.   You might have to play around with it to give you hypotheticals regarding how many coins that you might have had when you started with such method of withdrawal and then see how many coins you would have today based on how you had chosen to withdraw from your then stash several years in the past.

I played around a little bit a few days ago, it was interesting to see. Still there is a small argument to be made against backtesting in terms of it being adequate evidence for a functioning strategy.

In this case, you are just plugging the withdrawal formulas into whatever the bitcoin stash size might have had been at the start date and then seeing how many bitcoin you would have had spent by using such a formula, what the dollar value would have had been and then seeing how many bitcoin you would have today after following such a formula.  

Sure, you cannot know if the formula will continue to work into the future, and you surely could adjust the formula downward if you are worried that you might be depleting your BTC stash too fast by following such a formula.

So look at these numbers and consider the matter with some specifics and my describing how I think that the tool can be used in a meaningful way.  

Let's say that a guy had 34.51 bitcoin on September 1, 2022 (which remember is a low period in regards to bitcoin's prices going through a dippening period in which the 200-WMA fell below the spot price and even the BTC spot price got as low as 35% below the 200-WMA), and I specifically choose this number because it constitutes what I consider to be an arguable entry-level fuck you status, and so such guy began to withdraw at 10% per year (on a monthly pro-rata basis) based on the dollar value of the 200-WMA being at $800k, and surely with the way we constructed the formulas on the tool (in the website) he is having to withdraw less than $80k per year during the periods in which the BTC spot price is less than 25% above the 200-WMA, yet if he follows the guidelines of the tool, over the past 3 years (starting from September 1, 20022 until today and a starting BTC stash of 34.51 BTC), he ended up withdrawing right around $300k (which I recognize is more than $80k per year. .which may show there is some error in the tool) and slightly more than 6 BTC, which leaves him with a current bitcoin stash balance of about 28.46 BTC.

So we can plug the 28.46 BTC into the tool for today, and we can see that the guy would be able to give himself a pay raise of $70k-ish per year to raise his income to $150k per year (if he were to want to do so).

I think that there is enough of a cushion that we can figure out some formula that works for our own situation, and the withdrawal formula can likely be much more aggressive than the current 10% per year (based on the 200-WMA) that I have been recommending in the past several years.   For a few years, I have known that the formula can be more aggressive, yet I still want to error on the side of conservatism, to some extent, even though I might end up causing people to hold onto more bitcoin than they need to within their attempt to follow some kind of a reasonable time-based sustainable withdrawal.

In any case, I am not giving financial advice since each person has to figure out how to use the tool and find the formulas that work for them, and if they fuck up or the tool leads them in the wrong direction, that is on them to  figure out their own particulars and make sure that they are not selling too much (or too little) cornz too soon.

Note to @bitmover.  There is something that is not quite right about the calculations, and I am not really very bothered by such wrongness, since I think that overall guys have to figure for themselves if they are using the tool to help to guide them in their withdrawing on a monthly, quarterly or some other periodic basis, and if they withdraw too much or too little, yet at the same time, going through this process, I think that the simulator should have another user input that allows the user to estimate a cost of living increase that he is going to give himself each year.  So for example if he starts out at $80k in year 1, he can presume some kind of an annual increase in his withdrawal rate based on his estimations of how much the dollar might debase and/or how his own standard of living might go up, and we should use 7% as the default with the user being able to adjust it to be anywhere between 0% and 35%.  I am not sure how much value would come to allow the user to use a number that is higher than 35%, since that would be quite catastrophic if dollar debasement gets to such high levels (and it is not factually impossible to see such high rates, but I think it would be better to limit the tool to no more than 35% debasement per year.. which is already quite outrageous if that were to happen).

If you know past results you can make a strategy today that will work great if you backtest it. A kind of strategy hindsight bias thing.

I understand what you are saying, yet I believe that we are not engaging in such error, and we have to attempt to be practical and act upon some kind of information and attempt to adjust what we do within our judgement, and so to that extent hopefully, no one would be blindly following the tool outcomes without both coming to his own assessments and understanding somewhat how the tool is arriving at its calculated outputs (withdrawal guidelines).

Even if you are not purposely trying to manipulate the strategy to fit the past results to make it work there are so many biases that subtly play in a person's head when devising one because of all the knowledge one has about a previous period of time.

Of course we know that even though the 200-WMA has historically always gone up, it might not continue to go up, yet I personally believe that the 200-WMA is such a lagging indicator that using such 200-WMA provides a sufficient enough cushion so that we can make adjustments and perhaps even to choose to withdraw way under the amounts that we believe would be authorized because we prefer to error on the side of conservativism so that we don't overdo our withdrawal amounts and overly deplete our BTC stash too soon.

Surely, the idea of sustainable withdrawal is supposed to mean that it can be done perpetually, yet I doubt that it would be prudent to blindly follow such sustainable withdrawal recommendations if the BTC price starts to perform far outside of expected parameters.. such as if the 200-WMA started to go down rather than up or maybe the BTC spot price were to stay 20% or more below the 200-WMA for extended periods of time (such as 6 months or longer).   If the BTC price seems to be greatly suppressed for extended periods of time, then we should be able to increase the alertness in our antennas and figure out if we may well need to make adjustments to our withdrawal practices beyond the recommendations of the tool.  

The tool already attempts to account for extreme conditions, yet if the extremes are beyond the contemplations of the tool, then we need to exercise our own common sense.. so the mere fact that the tool might not catch all extremes and the tool might not be perfect, it seems quite possible that we can still be empowered by such pool and even empowered by BTC so that we are not letting outrageous scenarios (that may well  not even be close to happening) to contribute to our being dumbasses who do dumb things because we think that we need a more perfect resolution, when in fact it appears that we have something (BTC) that is close to the best, if not the best asset that is currently available to everyone and anyone who has a discretionary income, and we are going to look at it and say that it is not perfect enough, when it is likely the best game in town?  (and yeah, I am referring back to BTC, but I am also suggesting that the tool can also help us to figure out ways to accumulate, maintain our accumulation and also to figure out the levels upon which we are comfortable to employ sustainable withdrawal practices within guidelines of the tool).
 

I am not saying here is any case of manipulation of course! I am trying to explain why it is more interesting or objective to see how the strategy plays out in the future as that data is not predictable

Of course, we don't know the future.  If we are acting, we have to act now based on what information that we have, and sure theoretically, it is good to monitor how the tool is playing out as we go, yet we still need to be acting based on our own situation, whether we are in accumulation status, maintenance status or sustainable withdrawal status.  If we are not yet in sustainable withdrawal status, then sure we might be in a position that we can just continue to accumulate or maintain our bitcoin stash, but if we are already in sustainable withdrawal status, then we have to figure out how we are going to act within such status, and the tool gives us some parameters, even though we are ultimately responsible if we don't make sure that the calculations of the tool match our own ideas in regards to what we might be attempting to achieve... So the tool should end up empowering us to the extent that we might be able to understand what it is saying when we input our numbers and if we might want to follow its suggestions or make our own tool or to come to our own conclusions that may or may not include the calculations of the tool.

and you can't adjust it to make it work for unknown events of the future. Either it will work or it won't.

There are always unknowns in the future, which is true for any asset that we invest in and any tool that we attempt to use to guide us in what we do now (or what we don't do now).  

Some folks are going to be more right than others, and some folks are going to be directionally correct, so still advantage themselves by being directionally correct.

It seems to me that we are frequently making our choices based on knowns and unknowns, and attempting to do our best to hedge ourselves for a variety of scenarios that might play out, and surely some plays are smarter than others, and even if some plays might end up losers and some might end up winners, we might hope that whatever variation of plays that we might make for ourselves increases our odds of being more on the winner side than on the loser side, which seems to be part of the reason that a lot of guys who are involved in this forum have been erroring on the side of accumulating and holding bitcoin in the first place.

Hopefully, we are not getting overly distracted by various irrelevancies, and we are also realizing that there has been a certain amount of desperation coming out of status quo rich folks, institutions and governments in recent times, and hopefully, we are not allowing the desperations in their communications (and misinformation) is not causing us to engage in conduct that it not within our own better interests... and yeah, it is not always easy, including that status quo powers that be divide and conquer and they also seem to pit people against each other, gaslight and even employ both hard tactics and soft tactics in their seeming desperation to maintain various aspects of the status quo that may not even consider bitcoin as being part of what they might want "us" to be getting involved in.

We also may have to attempt to have our feet in both worlds, since it can be tough if any of us are cut off from banking systems and/or our abilities to participate in modern day information systems, whether on the internet or to the extent to which people meet, transact and interact in person... which truly we seem to have rights to be able to communicate, interact and transact in person, even though there are likely ongoing obstructions to our abilities to engage in those kinds of empowering ways.
 

Of course, I am striving to try to be accurate, yet I expect that every 6 months (or whenever I update the current numbers, then the future projections are going to be affected every 6 months, so maybe there might be some 6 month periods that I am within 10% of getting it right and then there are other 6  months that my numbers might be off by 20% to 30% or more, so then I would just attempt to adjust and maybe, sure, I could reconsider if my projections might need to be adjusted to account for whatever historical pattern appears to be happening.

Small fluctuations are to be expected though otherwise people may see you as a God.   It would be a nice visualization to chart these fluctuations later.

There are a variety of folks with good visualizations in their websites, and I am not opposed to guys coming up with visualizations and helping me to design such alternative ways of presenting the information, whether we work through bitmover or if there might be other guys who might be able to collaborate and design various ways of better seeing the data.  Crowd sourcing can be quite helpful since I have my own challenges in regards to how much I am able to design, but if anyone (including you Dogedegen) wants to figure out ways to present the information better, then I am more than receptive to trying to help to see those kinds of presentations come into some kind of a material (or would it be web-based?) existence.  

I am pretty that bitmover has been keeping the code to the JJG sustainable withdrawal tool as open source, even though I personally don't really know how to manipulate such code or if there might be incentives to design what we have so far in better ways.

Maybe there will be a trend in them. Maybe the fluctuation % reduces over time as Bitcoin matures more and this strategy gains accuracy as time passes, something like that.

That seems to be within some of the current presumptions that I had been trying to employ in my numbers, yet I am open to making adjustments to my own projections.
 

By the way, it is looking almost impossible to get to my $68,699 projection since my current numbers on my spreadsheet are looking a lot lower based on how the past 4 months have been going and that there are ONLY two months left.. so finishing somewhere in the $55k to $60k arena is looking more realistic, unless there is some kind of explosive UPwards movement in the coming two months... Oh, and I am mostly paying attention to the 200-WMA since the spot price is merely 30% higher than the 200-WMA.

I think everything is on the table for Q4. Let's wait and see!

Yep.  We cannot completely write off the upside numbers for the 200-WMA to reach $69k this year from playing out, even though at the moment they are seeming tough to reach within the 4th quarter.

By the way, I have heard some folks presenting theories that historically, the bull run has tended to end right around the time when the 200-WMA reaches the previous ATH (which also happens to be $69k), and surely it could be the case that once the 200-WMA reaches somewhere in the ballpark of $69k, this bull run might be over.  

We have to take those kinds of predictions (indicators) with a grain of salt, even though those kinds of pieces of information can be interesting to monitor and to see if they might end up playing out... and at the same time, we know that even if a correction starts to take place once the 200-WMA gets in the ballpark of the previous ATH of $69k, the 200-WMA will still continue to go up, even though by definition, the then BTC price will be dropping... so whether we were to hit such top at $130k, $180k, $300k or some other BTC spot price level, it is still to be seen how the 4th quarter is going to play out and to even see if any kind of potential top might drag itself into the 1st and/or 2nd quarters of 2026.

[edited out tables - and aspect of table discussion]

.......Anyway for people who are not very familiar with this table they are likely to forget which heading is which when they are looking at a long table like this somewhere in the middle or at the end. So there is a benefit to having the header come up again.  

For clarity reasons, even though the contents are similar, I am more inclined towards keeping separate headers for each of the two tables, too.. and maybe there might be some benefits in my reconsideration the utility of keeping some of the columns within the posted results, since some of the columns are more relevant than others, and some of the columns had just been being used by me to approximate some calculation or to see some results that might no longer be as relevant to me as I thought that it was in some of my past uses of the table.

[G_Besar]

Apartt from profitability, there are also so many other benefits that comes when an investor approaches Bitcoin with a long term mentality( 4-10years+). For this benefits to be fully actualized the investor has to have a solid strategy( like DCA), a discretionary income, a safety net( emergency funds) .....

Some of this benefits includes:

1) Reduced stress emotionally
2) Protection from panic or forced selling
3) Freedom from trying to time the market perfectly
4) A steadyy growthh of one's Bitcoin's portfolio regardless of short term price swings...etc.

The four benefits you mentioned will not be achieved by investors who complain a lot and often panic in the short term due to price fluctuations. This means that all four benefits can truly be achieved by all investors who are patient enough to invest for one or two cycles at a time, relying on discretionary income through the DCA method. Especially if you already have an emergency fund to protect yourself from unexpected emergencies. Anyone who tries to implement this more consistently without complaining will certainly reap even more benefits in the future, including the four benefits you mentioned. Because when there is a method that can be used by anyone, then there is only one word that is worth saying "want to or not" to do it.

[bitmover]

Note to @bitmover.  There is something that is not quite right about the calculations, and I am not really very bothered by such wrongness, since I think that overall guys have to figure for themselves if they are using the tool to help to guide them in their withdrawing on a monthly, quarterly or some other periodic basis, and if they withdraw too much or too little, yet at the same time, going through this process, I think that the simulator should have another user input that allows the user to estimate a cost of living increase that he is going to give himself each year.  So for example if he starts out at $80k in year 1, he can presume some kind of an annual increase in his withdrawal rate based on his estimations of how much the dollar might debase and/or how his own standard of living might go up, and we should use 7% as the default with the user being able to adjust it to be anywhere between 0% and 35%.  I am not sure how much value would come to allow the user to use a number that is higher than 35%, since that would be quite catastrophic if dollar debasement gets to such high levels (and it is not factually impossible to see such high rates, but I think it would be better to limit the tool to no more than 35% debasement per year.. which is already quite outrageous if that were to happen).

I understand, this could be something like an inflation rate input.

I think that this isn't quite effective. Let me explain.

This is not exactly a dollar withdrawal. We are withdrawing bitcoin. If the dollar loses value due to inflation, bitcoin will most likely adjust its USD value to a higher price.

Currencies usually adjust their value considering the inflation rate of each different currency. We can clearly see this in developing countries, where inflation is much higher and the fiat currencies in such countries always lose more value.

Small fluctuations are to be expected though otherwise people may see you as a God.   It would be a nice visualization to chart these fluctuations later.

There are a variety of folks with good visualizations in their websites, and I am not opposed to guys coming up with visualizations and helping me to design such alternative ways of presenting the information, whether we work through bitmover or if there might be other guys who might be able to collaborate and design various ways of better seeing the data.  Crowd sourcing can be quite helpful since I have my own challenges in regards to how much I am able to design, but if anyone (including you Dogedegen) wants to figure out ways to present the information better, then I am more than receptive to trying to help to see those kinds of presentations come into some kind of a material (or would it be web-based?) existence.  

I am pretty that bitmover has been keeping the code to the JJG sustainable withdrawal tool as open source, even though I personally don't really know how to manipulate such code or if there might be incentives to design what we have so far in better ways.

It's open source.

If you have any ideas for new charts, please tell them that I may work on them

[Lidger]

Please clarify when you actually sell bitcoin so you can profit.
What are your sell parameters and have any of them been met since you started buying btc or have you only held and never sold?
Just Curious. 

Sell means Buying Again from a setisfied price close to me.

If you are selling Intelligently sell on a Price in which you are not lossing much and Market is in its Top Blossom then Market will make corrections Buy such dips and stay Happy as Taking profit as well not lossing valueable assets.

It is difficult to have an idea about every change in the market and it takes a lot of time, so I think that buying Bitcoin and keeping it for a long time is a good idea, so an investor does not have to spend a lot of time thinking about the changes in the market movement. If we have such an idea that we will sell, buy again, buy again, sell again, then our profit will not be very high, so we should hold on to them without paying multiple trading fees and set a specific time so that the investor can sell his investment after a certain time or after a certain profit.

Apartt from profitability, there are also so many other benefits that comes when an investor approaches Bitcoin with a long term mentality( 4-10years+). For this benefits to be fully actualized the investor has to have a solid strategy( like DCA), a discretionary income, a safety net( emergency funds) .....

Some of this benefits includes:

1) Reduced stress emotionally
2) Protection from panic or forced selling
3) Freedom from trying to time the market perfectly
4) A steadyy growthh of one's Bitcoin's portfolio regardless of short term price swings...etc.

It can be said that the DCA strategy is very well associated with investment today. Now those who are investing in Bitcoin are certainly aware of DCA investment and most of the investors are adopting the DCA strategy for their investment. Yes, of course, there are many benefits of the DCA investment strategy, which is why investors are giving the most importance to this strategy.

• An investor must want to invest in such a way that the investment does not feel pressured to him, in the DCA investment method, an investor can invest as he wishes, this is a freedom for him, this is an important reason for investors to use the investment strategy.

• The second reason is that every professional can invest by adopting this investment strategy, that is, those who had dreams of investing earlier but could not invest due to lack of good financial support, but now they can easily invest in Bitcoin.

• The third thing is not to be tense about market changes, since there is an opportunity to invest step by step, so now there is no need to look at the market changes to see when the price will come down for many and when investors will invest, rather now investors are getting the opportunity to invest in every change in the price in this method, which is becoming quite effective for investors.

[JayJuanGee]

Note to @bitmover.  There is something that is not quite right about the calculations, and I am not really very bothered by such wrongness, since I think that overall guys have to figure for themselves if they are using the tool to help to guide them in their withdrawing on a monthly, quarterly or some other periodic basis, and if they withdraw too much or too little, yet at the same time, going through this process, I think that the simulator should have another user input that allows the user to estimate a cost of living increase that he is going to give himself each year.  So for example if he starts out at $80k in year 1, he can presume some kind of an annual increase in his withdrawal rate based on his estimations of how much the dollar might debase and/or how his own standard of living might go up, and we should use 7% as the default with the user being able to adjust it to be anywhere between 0% and 35%.  I am not sure how much value would come to allow the user to use a number that is higher than 35%, since that would be quite catastrophic if dollar debasement gets to such high levels (and it is not factually impossible to see such high rates, but I think it would be better to limit the tool to no more than 35% debasement per year.. which is already quite outrageous if that were to happen).

I understand, this could be something like an inflation rate input.
I think that this isn't quite effective. Let me explain.

This is not exactly a dollar withdrawal. We are withdrawing bitcoin. If the dollar loses value due to inflation, bitcoin will most likely adjust its USD value to a higher price.

We seem to be visualizing the formula differently, and I understand that the spot price formula takes a set rate of BTC each time, so likely the formula would just increase the amount of the BTC withdrawal by 7% each year.  You likely recall that I am not much of a fan for the way that we had the spot price set up for this withdrawal tool, yet there still could be a way to allow for the inflation tool to continue to work, since it would be taking from the BTC balance at the rate that was originally inputted, and then after a year, it would take 7% more (that is if the person had put 7% as their inflation rate).

If the 200-WMA is used, then the same thing would be true..

So let's use a 7% inflation rate, and let's go by today's calculation that 15.712 BTC equals $80k per year, so the first year the withdrawal would be $80k, and then year two the withdrawal would be $85.6k, then the third year would be $91.6k, etc etc etc.  When we are employing the formula, then we can just calculate this every month or whenever we are making our withdrawals.

Yet for the simulator, we would have to put in the formula, and maybe it could be done annually or maybe it could be done monthly, so if the rate was 7% per year then the monthly increase would be 0.005833% (7%/12), and I recall that you already said that in the simulator you made you made presumptions about the withdrawal dates.  Wasn't it twice a month?  The note next to the simulator says that we are presuming withdrawals on the 8th and on the 22nd of each month within the simulation.  So if it is presumed as twice a month, then you could have the rate of withdrawal go up 0.0029167% (that is 7%/24) for each withdrawal past the original starting date.  

The 200-WMA uses the 200-WMA dollar value at the time.

Currencies usually adjust their value considering the inflation rate of each different currency.

Yeah, but we do not give any shits about the actual debasement of the dollar since we are manually inputting our determination in regards to how much we are presuming our yearly income needs to go up each year in order for us to maintain our expected standard of living.

We can clearly see this in developing countries, where inflation is much higher and the fiat currencies in such countries always lose more value.

This tool ONLY uses the dollar (at least so far, unless you want to become more creative and really confuse the situation).. and the user is putting in his assumption.  I like 7% as the default but the user can put whatever number he wants. So he is not figuring out how the dollar actually debased, but instead he is plugging in what he believes was the debasement rate (in the case of the simulator).. . The tool does not project forward, so we are manually doing that, yet if we are plugging the variables into the simulator, then we can put in how much we would have had increased our income each year.

So if we use my original example of a starting date of September 1, 2022, the first year, we would have been withdrawing at a monthly rate that was aiming to achieve a total withdrawal of $80k per year and ($6,667) per month, so then a year later starting on September, 1, 2023, the rate would become $85.6k (unless it is adjusted every month or twice a month as I think is the current formula that you had already put into the simulator (8th and 22nd).

Small fluctuations are to be expected though otherwise people may see you as a God.   It would be a nice visualization to chart these fluctuations later.

There are a variety of folks with good visualizations in their websites, and I am not opposed to guys coming up with visualizations and helping me to design such alternative ways of presenting the information, whether we work through bitmover or if there might be other guys who might be able to collaborate and design various ways of better seeing the data.  Crowd sourcing can be quite helpful since I have my own challenges in regards to how much I am able to design, but if anyone (including you Dogedegen) wants to figure out ways to present the information better, then I am more than receptive to trying to help to see those kinds of presentations come into some kind of a material (or would it be web-based?) existence.  

I am pretty that bitmover has been keeping the code to the JJG sustainable withdrawal tool as open source, even though I personally don't really know how to manipulate such code or if there might be incentives to design what we have so far in better ways.

It's open source.

If you have any ideas for new charts, please tell them that I may work on them

I would also prefer that you would be involved in working on whatever new bells and whistles that we might consider having added (to the extent that they are feasible or able to be made in ways that add to the presentation of the information), and surely there might be some guys who have some interesting ideas in regards to possible additions (or subtractions) as Dogedegen seems to have mentioned some few interesting possibilities that might be possible to add (perhaps?) .. and we can see if you can come up with something that accommodates the request for such new features, or if you might see some obstacles in regards to incorporating any of the suggested features.

Please clarify when you actually sell bitcoin so you can profit.
What are your sell parameters and have any of them been met since you started buying btc or have you only held and never sold?
Just Curious.  

Sell means Buying Again from a setisfied price close to me.

If you are selling Intelligently sell on a Price in which you are not lossing much and Market is in its Top Blossom then Market will make corrections Buy such dips and stay Happy as Taking profit as well not lossing valueable assets.

It is difficult to have an idea about every change in the market and it takes a lot of time, so I think that buying Bitcoin and keeping it for a long time is a good idea, so an investor does not have to spend a lot of time thinking about the changes in the market movement. If we have such an idea that we will sell, buy again, buy again, sell again, then our profit will not be very high, so we should hold on to them without paying multiple trading fees and set a specific time so that the investor can sell his investment after a certain time or after a certain profit.

Apartt from profitability, there are also so many other benefits that comes when an investor approaches Bitcoin with a long term mentality( 4-10years+). For this benefits to be fully actualized the investor has to have a solid strategy( like DCA), a discretionary income, a safety net( emergency funds) .....

Some of this benefits includes:
1) Reduced stress emotionally
2) Protection from panic or forced selling
3) Freedom from trying to time the market perfectly
4) A steadyy growthh of one's Bitcoin's portfolio regardless of short term price swings...etc.

It can be said that the DCA strategy is very well associated with investment today. Now those who are investing in Bitcoin are certainly aware of DCA investment and most of the investors are adopting the DCA strategy for their investment. Yes, of course, there are many benefits of the DCA investment strategy, which is why investors are giving the most importance to this strategy.

• An investor must want to invest in such a way that the investment does not feel pressured to him, in the DCA investment method, an investor can invest as he wishes, this is a freedom for him, this is an important reason for investors to use the investment strategy.
• The second reason is that every professional can invest by adopting this investment strategy, that is, those who had dreams of investing earlier but could not invest due to lack of good financial support, but now they can easily invest in Bitcoin.
• The third thing is not to be tense about market changes, since there is an opportunity to invest step by step, so now there is no need to look at the market changes to see when the price will come down for many and when investors will invest, rather now investors are getting the opportunity to invest in every change in the price in this method, which is becoming quite effective for investors.

Perhaps both of these posts appear like posts that a bot would make (or maybe some kind of an AI generated post).  

We are not talking about general advantages of DCA principles at this point in this thread, and perhaps you might want to engage with the thread topic a bit better and maybe ask some questions rather than acting like you know everything, including some of the ways that I talk about DCA in various parts of the thread to the extent that we are even talking about DCA at this time... even though various investment ideas can be discussed in this thread, even though it would seem better to post like a human that is trying to interact with other humans rather than posting as an academic, theoretically and/or sounding like a bot (or that you had AI draft most, if not all, of your post).

[Lidger]

We are not talking about general advantages of DCA principles at this point in this thread

@Joeboy has given some ideas about DCA investment strategy here and I have only answered his post, and I have enough knowledge about DCA investment so I hope I don't need to take help of AI to create a post about DCA investment. Please don't misunderstand.

For this benefits to be fully actualized the investor has to have a solid strategy( like DCA), a discretionary income, a safety net( emergency funds) .....

[Dogedegen]

Whoops.  I misspoke since I was thinking that the two tables should be in the same post - not just on the same page.

No problem, my reply is the same just swap the words page and post.  

I still like to see that data, even though maybe it is depicting something else.. since we could not have a 200-WMA if we do not have 200 weeks within the data set, so if the data set is drawing on another quantity of weeks, then it would start out being perhaps 20 weeks when there is 20 weeks of data, then it becomes 50 weeks once there is a year-ish of data, then it becomes 100 weeks when there is 2 years of data and finally graduating to showing the actual 200 WMA once there are 200 weeks of data.  

I understand you from one side but from the other I think that is frowned upon. Let's say that I am giving you a metric called AVG10 for analyzing the velocity of something based on 10 measurements of its velocity at different points in time. It is 25 m/s. You ask me to provide you the individual data points to verify my calculation, and I tell you it is just one entry of 25 m/s.   People who studied statistics or engineering where precision really matters would pull their hairs. Generally you're not allowed to call something 200-WMA if it is not based on 200 weeks, even with 199 weeks worth of data it would be seen as wrong. Up to you of course I am just sharing my experience.

For clarity reasons, even though the contents are similar, I am more inclined towards keeping separate headers for each of the two tables, too.. and maybe there might be some benefits in my reconsideration the utility of keeping some of the columns within the posted results, since some of the columns are more relevant than others, and some of the columns had just been being used by me to approximate some calculation or to see some results that might no longer be as relevant to me as I thought that it was in some of my past uses of the table.

I was referring to something else. The second table is too long and it must be split. However, if you don't add a header on it or at least an invisible one the formatting is off. My idea is that it would be good to split the second table into two and have the header come up twice because the second table is very long. In effect it would be 3 tables in total. The one with only real data, and the one with projections now split into two.

For the rest of your post we are in agreement and I think I have given enough input here so this is my final post for now. If you need any help with tables send me a message or notify me in any post where we are engaging. I will gladly help you. I hope to see a positive result with this strategy.