JJG’s Outline of Bitcoin Investment Ideas

[JayJuanGee]

Whoops.  I misspoke since I was thinking that the two tables should be in the same post - not just on the same page.

No problem, my reply is the same just swap the words page and post.  

I still like to see that data, even though maybe it is depicting something else.. since we could not have a 200-WMA if we do not have 200 weeks within the data set, so if the data set is drawing on another quantity of weeks, then it would start out being perhaps 20 weeks when there is 20 weeks of data, then it becomes 50 weeks once there is a year-ish of data, then it becomes 100 weeks when there is 2 years of data and finally graduating to showing the actual 200 WMA once there are 200 weeks of data.  

I understand you from one side but from the other I think that is frowned upon. Let's say that I am giving you a metric called AVG10 for analyzing the velocity of something based on 10 measurements of its velocity at different points in time. It is 25 m/s. You ask me to provide you the individual data points to verify my calculation, and I tell you it is just one entry of 25 m/s.   People who studied statistics or engineering where precision really matters would pull their hairs. Generally you're not allowed to call something 200-WMA if it is not based on 200 weeks, even with 199 weeks worth of data it would be seen as wrong. Up to you of course I am just sharing my experience.

I did not really understand the idea until recently, since I come to realize that the 200-WMAs that are listed on various cites are extrapolated during the periods prior to their having 200 weeks worth of data... Yet, I hardly have any idea regarding the purity of the data.  If the data is being pulled from one exchange, then there could be problems with the one exchange, and there could be problems with combining several exchanges.  Prior to 2017, there were so many exchanges with very questionable data in terms of its veracity - especially several of the Chinese exchanges.  Some folks were not sure if the exchanges were completely faking the data or if their trading volume was so high based upon their having had no fees, which would incentivize wash trading with BIG players and/or the exchanges themselves. 

I have a tendency to prefer Bitstamp's data - even though they have been criticized in the past for being low volume (like a fraction of the volume of some other exchanges).  So purity of data could be a question, even though I am not even sure from where the data is being extrapolated, if it is one exchange or some kind of aggregated data.

If we were to at least know the starting date and if the source of the data had been pretty much consistent, then there could be a note that exists for each of the earlier dates... that would describe how many weeks were used to calculate the data for each of the weeks, and so then there might be a period in which the data would reach and then exceed 200 weeks.  Even our tool has a spot price and 200-WMA price for each of the dates prior to mid 2014, and the data in the tool comes from Coingecko, yet I am not sure if it is aggregated data or if it comes from one exchange. 

A lot of folks do focus on spot price for their analysis, and even that can be all over the place even though factually spot price is how we buy and sell and how we have bought historically. There is some value in the longer averages over the shorter averages, even though the shorter averages can also be helpful, even though the full data set for something like a 200-WMA would not have had existed until mid-2014, and even the mid-2014 data set might have been somewhat incomplete if we concede that some of the exchanges might have had inaccurate ways of compiling their trade volume and price data.. so yeah, we take some of the earlier data with a grain of salt, even though that earlier data is still telling us something.. .. even though we can also argue the bitcoin trading remains in such early days in terms of the kinds of tools that are going to continue to evolve to exchange it whether through exchanges or through OTC (over the counter) that might not directly affect exchange prices, even though indirectly the exchange of coins off exchanges still may well affect exchange prices.
 

For clarity reasons, even though the contents are similar, I am more inclined towards keeping separate headers for each of the two tables, too.. and maybe there might be some benefits in my reconsideration the utility of keeping some of the columns within the posted results, since some of the columns are more relevant than others, and some of the columns had just been being used by me to approximate some calculation or to see some results that might no longer be as relevant to me as I thought that it was in some of my past uses of the table.

I was referring to something else. The second table is too long and it must be split. However, if you don't add a header on it or at least an invisible one the formatting is off. My idea is that it would be good to split the second table into two and have the header come up twice because the second table is very long. In effect it would be 3 tables in total. The one with only real data, and the one with projections now split into two.

I don't even know how to post the tables in a proper format in the first place.  I just have the raw Excel information that I have been updating every once in a while (and there was even something like an 18 month gap between my November 2023 publishing and the May 2025 update.. So, i keep my private data in my Excel spreadsheet, yet when I am wanting to talk about it, then I need some kind of an updated reference, which is part of the reason that I have for publishing it, so that guys might know what I am talking about whether referring to historical numbers or to my own projection of the numbers and how they might change from time to time based on plugging in new data.

There were plenty of past posts (prior to my publishing an update) where I just said that my own private data gave slightly different numbers as compared to the older data, and many times we might be talking about ballparkedly rather than specifics, since I am surely not proclaiming that it would be too likely that any of my future projections would coincidentally end up striking with exactness.

For the rest of your post we are in agreement and I think I have given enough input here so this is my final post for now. If you need any help with tables send me a message or notify me in any post where we are engaging. I will gladly help you. I hope to see a positive result with this strategy.

I anticipate that the next update in the fuck you status chart won't probably come until after the November data is in (and maybe it can be difficult to be motivated to update it depending on how different it might be from the original projection).  At the same time, it seems that bitmover has taken an interest in your ideas regarding the possibility of visualizing the data in the sustainable withdrawal tool, yet there might need to be more specifics in order to help with that.

Our conversation here has also sparked some communications in regards to the extent to  which some cost of living adjustment input might be able to be placed in the Simulator, which I would like to see some kind of an added feature like that, even though sometimes it can take a bit of time to make certain kinds of updates, and sometimes there might need to be some back and forth interaction to both clarify and/or to make sure that whoever is making the change is in agreement to make the change.  In terms of the fuck you status table, maybe it could be possible to bring DirtyKeyboard in to see if he can put the table-like data in lines rather than tables, as Joker_jouse had mentioned to be a way to include more data in one post.

[bitmover]

I anticipate that the next update in the fuck you status chart won't probably come until after the November data is in (and maybe it can be difficult to be motivated to update it depending on how different it might be from the original projection).  At the same time, it seems that bitmover has taken an interest in your ideas regarding the possibility of visualizing the data in the sustainable withdrawal tool, yet there might need to be more specifics in order to help with that.

Our conversation here has also sparked some communications in regards to the extent to  which some cost of living adjustment input might be able to be placed in the Simulator, which I would like to see some kind of an added feature like that, even though sometimes it can take a bit of time to make certain kinds of updates, and sometimes there might need to be some back and forth interaction to both clarify and/or to make sure that whoever is making the change is in agreement to make the change.  In terms of the fuck you status table, maybe it could be possible to bring DirtyKeyboard in to see if he can put the table-like data in lines rather than tables, as Joker_jouse had mentioned to be a way to include more data in one post.

I am a bit lost in all those posts.

Can you ELI5 me about those new visualizations, @Dogedegen?


Is the idea simple to add a theorical a customizable inflation rate?

Don't you guys think that bitcoin will adjust its value according to the inflation rate? Similar to what gold and real state do (in theory)

[Dogedegen]

I am a bit lost in all those posts.

Can you ELI5 me about those new visualizations, @Dogedegen?

We went a bit too far.   In my post you can find all 3 tables, the second one is split into two as they don't fit into a single post https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg65855133#msg65855133. I hit some limit. As far as the visualizations are concerned, they are for the future as we don't have the data yet. Basically these would be the things to visualize I think.

One, compare the projected spot price with the real one.
Two, compare the projected 200-WMA with the real one.
Three, chart also the deviations of the real values from the projections in percentage terms.

I would wait for at least 2 data points to arrive first though after the date 5/31/26.

[BitBakerr1]

Please clarify when you actually sell bitcoin so you can profit.
What are your sell parameters and have any of them been met since you started buying btc or have you only held and never sold?
Just Curious. 

Sell means Buying Again from a setisfied price close to me.

If you are selling Intelligently sell on a Price in which you are not lossing much and Market is in its Top Blossom then Market will make corrections Buy such dips and stay Happy as Taking profit as well not lossing valueable assets.

It is difficult to have an idea about every change in the market and it takes a lot of time, so I think that buying Bitcoin and keeping it for a long time is a good idea, so an investor does not have to spend a lot of time thinking about the changes in the market movement. If we have such an idea that we will sell, buy again, buy again, sell again, then our profit will not be very high, so we should hold on to them without paying multiple trading fees and set a specific time so that the investor can sell his investment after a certain time or after a certain profit.

Apartt from profitability, there are also so many other benefits that comes when an investor approaches Bitcoin with a long term mentality( 4-10years+). For this benefits to be fully actualized the investor has to have a solid strategy( like DCA), a discretionary income, a safety net( emergency funds) .....

Some of this benefits includes:

1) Reduced stress emotionally
2) Protection from panic or forced selling
3) Freedom from trying to time the market perfectly
4) A steadyy growthh of one's Bitcoin's portfolio regardless of short term price swings...etc.

Joeboy you are correct, all this benefits can only be achieved if you are investing in Bitcoin for long term which is 4 - 10 years, and again just like you said actualizing this you need to use DCA Bitcoin investment strategy, use discretionary income and have a strong backup funds which are emergency, reserve and float funds not just emergency funds lastly which is very important you need to have good management skill without this it will be impossible to have use DCA Bitcoin investment strategy, or even having a Discretionary income and backup funds.
The reason why you will be able to have and use all these is if you have a good management skill.
Without a good management skill you will spend anyhow and in the cause of that you will be lift without discretionary income and you won't be able to build a backup funds which are emergency, reserve and float funds and lastly you will find it difficult to use DCA Bitcoin investment strategy since you will be running out of money quickly if you are not managing your income very well, so good management skill is very important to succeed in long term Bitcoin investment.

[JayJuanGee]

I am a bit lost in all those posts.

Can you ELI5 me about those new visualizations, @Dogedegen?

We went a bit too far.   In my post you can find all 3 tables, the second one is split into two as they don't fit into a single post https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg65855133#msg65855133. I hit some limit. As far as the visualizations are concerned, they are for the future as we don't have the data yet. Basically these would be the things to visualize I think.

One, compare the projected spot price with the real one.
Two, compare the projected 200-WMA with the real one.
Three, chart also the deviations of the real values from the projections in percentage terms.

I would wait for at least 2 data points to arrive first though after the date 5/31/26.

I am a little confused about the extent to which putting much if any efforts into accuracy of projections is of much relevance, since surely there likely are going to be expectations that future projections are reasonable, yet the past accuracy of the projections is not likely to tell us the extent to which future projections are very good.  Maybe I am being a fud dud in regards identifying some kind of utility with that kind of a visualization - even though surely I understand and appreciate why guys would like to attempt to plan their futures based on events that are more likely to happen rather than not - yet there still seem to be too many variables that could throw off future projections, and perhaps the best that we get is that the 200-WMA is a lagging indicator of current price, so not ONLY can we see that the 200-WMA has historically always gone up, but we can start to see that if the BTC price is spending too much time at or near the 200-WMA, then future 200-WMA numbers might begin to dampen, even if they might not go into the negative. 

So currently all of my future projections keep the 200-WMA with a positive slope, yet I am not ruling out the possibility that there could be periods of time in which it either is close to zero or goes into a negative slope for some period of time.. .. so it just becomes so difficult to know when those kinds of events might end up happening, yet we still can be very much advantaged by attempting to use such a delayed indicator to determine our withdrawal levels (if any).

Maybe there could be some way of creating the visualization that you imagine without involving too much work, and sure I am not against something like that if it is not too labor intense to try to make and/or to maintain such a thing.. and as I already mentioned, I have not even been updating my own predictions every 6 months on the website since I cannot even figure out how to do it, even though on my Excel spreadsheet, I update it fairly regularly. .and then lock in the numbers every 6 months so that my attempt to predict the next 6 months will go from the part that is locked in rather than having somewhat outdated data (even if the data might be off by only 10% or less, that level of difference between prior prediction and current projections forward can make quite a large impact several years out, unless there is some kind of change in the future data to cause the wrong future projection to revert back to the mean, which surely could end up happening if we are looking out at a long enough time horizon. .we might have some crazy ass up or down movement, but then several months or maybe even a year or more, we might end up having some crazy ass move that is opposite to the prior crazy ass move that ends up causing the whole thing to appear as a kind of wash, and even allows the earlier prediction to still end up being correct, even though there was a period of time that it was a bit out of kilter in one direction or the other...

Please clarify when you actually sell bitcoin so you can profit.
What are your sell parameters and have any of them been met since you started buying btc or have you only held and never sold?
Just Curious. 

Sell means Buying Again from a setisfied price close to me.

If you are selling Intelligently sell on a Price in which you are not lossing much and Market is in its Top Blossom then Market will make corrections Buy such dips and stay Happy as Taking profit as well not lossing valueable assets.

It is difficult to have an idea about every change in the market and it takes a lot of time, so I think that buying Bitcoin and keeping it for a long time is a good idea, so an investor does not have to spend a lot of time thinking about the changes in the market movement. If we have such an idea that we will sell, buy again, buy again, sell again, then our profit will not be very high, so we should hold on to them without paying multiple trading fees and set a specific time so that the investor can sell his investment after a certain time or after a certain profit.

Apartt from profitability, there are also so many other benefits that comes when an investor approaches Bitcoin with a long term mentality( 4-10years+). For this benefits to be fully actualized the investor has to have a solid strategy( like DCA), a discretionary income, a safety net( emergency funds) .....

Some of this benefits includes:
1) Reduced stress emotionally
2) Protection from panic or forced selling
3) Freedom from trying to time the market perfectly
4) A steadyy growthh of one's Bitcoin's portfolio regardless of short term price swings...etc.

Joeboy you are correct, all this benefits can only be achieved if you are investing in Bitcoin for long term which is 4 - 10 years, and again just like you said actualizing this you need to use DCA Bitcoin investment strategy, use discretionary income and have a strong backup funds which are emergency, reserve and float funds not just emergency funds lastly which is very important you need to have good management skill without this it will be impossible to have use DCA Bitcoin investment strategy, or even having a Discretionary income and backup funds.
The reason why you will be able to have and use all these is if you have a good management skill.
Without a good management skill you will spend anyhow and in the cause of that you will be lift without discretionary income and you won't be able to build a backup funds which are emergency, reserve and float funds and lastly you will find it difficult to use DCA Bitcoin investment strategy since you will be running out of money quickly if you are not managing your income very well, so good management skill is very important to succeed in long term Bitcoin investment.

You don't seem to be wrong in anything that you said in your post BitBakerr1, even though I get the sense that you are trying to lock in a bit of rigidness, even though surely DCA is a backbone to buying and the development of strong cashflow management skills and practices is going to help to make the whole process go more smoothly as compared to guys who might not develop and employ strong cashflow management practices.

Ultimately guys use their own judgement to try to come to some kind of balance that is meaningful to them and the life circumstances that they are wanting to attempt to balance, so even if we might presume that investing into bitcoin should be a fairly high priority, guys are likely to come to various conclusions regarding how high of a priority to make bitcoin, which would affect how aggressive or whimpy that they choose to be in regards to their bitcoin accumulation - and even with bitcoin accumulation, many of us understand that DCA is the best of practices for bitcoin newbies whether rich or poor, yet there still sometimes can come into play buying on dips and/or lump sum buying practices, that also could affect newbies, whether rich or poor, even though having less discretionary income might cause dip buying and even lump sum buying to be less practical and those situations might not come up as frequently if guys do not have as much discretionary income (or even from time to time discretionary funds) coming available to them.

Regarding your talking about float in the same way as you seem to be talking about back up funds, comes off as a bit confusing.. since I like to think that float will tend to be extra money that might be kept between pay periods that has not yet been determined if it is needed for expenses, so float really cannot be considered as usable in any kind of a short term way until the expenses upon which it is backing is resolved (or comes to be known)..

Let's say for example, you have some various expenses that are related to construction that are likely going to be anywhere between $1k and $2k, and you already had most of the construction done. and maybe you even made some of the payments, yet you have the extra bills still coming in through October and November, and you expect all of it to be resolved by November... but some of the bills might come in in October.  So the float might be money that you had available and you were going to put it into your discretionary funds, yet you figure that you have to prepare for the worst case scenario of $2k coming due in October, so you keep the $2k in your funds, and sure maybe some bills come in through October and some come in through November, and as each part of the bill ends up getting resolved, you can recalculate the extent to which you are keeping the extra money in your account or if you are putting the extra money into your discretionary funds. Let's say that a more or less better case scenario ends up playing out, and the contractor tells you that he has worked out all of the numbers for the labor and for the materials, and he can even give you a discount on some of the matters since you were helpful in saving some of the costs, so he is going to bill you $1k for the whole job, and you don't have to pay it until the end of November.  Thus all of a sudden, you might have $1k cleared, or even $2k cleared if you have more money coming in November that you know will cover the $1k bill that is due to be paid at the end of November, so then whatever freed amount of money would end up going from the float and into your discretionary funds... which you might choose to put part or all of the $1k that is due in November into your reserve funds... so that it is there until you pay the bill.

I understand that there can be overlap between the concepts, and we might not agree about what to call these various kinds of back up funds or float or how they might be used in our real world applications.  One of the worse situations can be if we are not sufficiently prepared and then our expenses end up being way higher than what we expected and/or our income ends up being way lower than expected, and so when the bills come due, we might not have enough to cover them all or maybe we end up tapping into some of our funds that we were not expecting to tap into in order to cover the unexpected problematic cashflow situation.

[BitBakerr1]

Please clarify when you actually sell bitcoin so you can profit.
What are your sell parameters and have any of them been met since you started buying btc or have you only held and never sold?
Just Curious. 

Sell means Buying Again from a setisfied price close to me.

If you are selling Intelligently sell on a Price in which you are not lossing much and Market is in its Top Blossom then Market will make corrections Buy such dips and stay Happy as Taking profit as well not lossing valueable assets.

It is difficult to have an idea about every change in the market and it takes a lot of time, so I think that buying Bitcoin and keeping it for a long time is a good idea, so an investor does not have to spend a lot of time thinking about the changes in the market movement. If we have such an idea that we will sell, buy again, buy again, sell again, then our profit will not be very high, so we should hold on to them without paying multiple trading fees and set a specific time so that the investor can sell his investment after a certain time or after a certain profit.

Apartt from profitability, there are also so many other benefits that comes when an investor approaches Bitcoin with a long term mentality( 4-10years+). For this benefits to be fully actualized the investor has to have a solid strategy( like DCA), a discretionary income, a safety net( emergency funds) .....

Some of this benefits includes:
1) Reduced stress emotionally
2) Protection from panic or forced selling
3) Freedom from trying to time the market perfectly
4) A steadyy growthh of one's Bitcoin's portfolio regardless of short term price swings...etc.

Joeboy you are correct, all this benefits can only be achieved if you are investing in Bitcoin for long term which is 4 - 10 years, and again just like you said actualizing this you need to use DCA Bitcoin investment strategy, use discretionary income and have a strong backup funds which are emergency, reserve and float funds not just emergency funds lastly which is very important you need to have good management skill without this it will be impossible to have use DCA Bitcoin investment strategy, or even having a Discretionary income and backup funds.
The reason why you will be able to have and use all these is if you have a good management skill.
Without a good management skill you will spend anyhow and in the cause of that you will be lift without discretionary income and you won't be able to build a backup funds which are emergency, reserve and float funds and lastly you will find it difficult to use DCA Bitcoin investment strategy since you will be running out of money quickly if you are not managing your income very well, so good management skill is very important to succeed in long term Bitcoin investment.

You don't seem to be wrong in anything that you said in your post BitBakerr1, even though I get the sense that you are trying to lock in a bit of rigidness, even though surely DCA is a backbone to buying and the development of strong cashflow management skills and practices is going to help to make the whole process go more smoothly as compared to guys who might not develop and employ strong cashflow management practices.

Ultimately guys use their own judgement to try to come to some kind of balance that is meaningful to them and the life circumstances that they are wanting to attempt to balance, so even if we might presume that investing into bitcoin should be a fairly high priority, guys are likely to come to various conclusions regarding how high of a priority to make bitcoin, which would affect how aggressive or whimpy that they choose to be in regards to their bitcoin accumulation - and even with bitcoin accumulation, many of us understand that DCA is the best of practices for bitcoin newbies whether rich or poor, yet there still sometimes can come into play buying on dips and/or lump sum buying practices, that also could affect newbies, whether rich or poor, even though having less discretionary income might cause dip buying and even lump sum buying to be less practical and those situations might not come up as frequently if guys do not have as much discretionary income (or even from time to time discretionary funds) coming available to them.

Regarding your talking about float in the same way as you seem to be talking about back up funds, comes off as a bit confusing.. since I like to think that float will tend to be extra money that might be kept between pay periods that has not yet been determined if it is needed for expenses, so float really cannot be considered as usable in any kind of a short term way until the expenses upon which it is backing is resolved (or comes to be known)..

Let's say for example, you have some various expenses that are related to construction that are likely going to be anywhere between $1k and $2k, and you already had most of the construction done. and maybe you even made some of the payments, yet you have the extra bills still coming in through October and November, and you expect all of it to be resolved by November... but some of the bills might come in in October.  So the float might be money that you had available and you were going to put it into your discretionary funds, yet you figure that you have to prepare for the worst case scenario of $2k coming due in October, so you keep the $2k in your funds, and sure maybe some bills come in through October and some come in through November, and as each part of the bill ends up getting resolved, you can recalculate the extent to which you are keeping the extra money in your account or if you are putting the extra money into your discretionary funds. Let's say that a more or less better case scenario ends up playing out, and the contractor tells you that he has worked out all of the numbers for the labor and for the materials, and he can even give you a discount on some of the matters since you were helpful in saving some of the costs, so he is going to bill you $1k for the whole job, and you don't have to pay it until the end of November.  Thus all of a sudden, you might have $1k cleared, or even $2k cleared if you have more money coming in November that you know will cover the $1k bill that is due to be paid at the end of November, so then whatever freed amount of money would end up going from the float and into your discretionary funds... which you might choose to put part or all of the $1k that is due in November into your reserve funds... so that it is there until you pay the bill.

I understand that there can be overlap between the concepts, and we might not agree about what to call these various kinds of back up funds or float or how they might be used in our real world applications.  One of the worse situations can be if we are not sufficiently prepared and then our expenses end up being way higher than what we expected and/or our income ends up being way lower than expected, and so when the bills come due, we might not have enough to cover them all or maybe we end up tapping into some of our funds that we were not expecting to tap into in order to cover the unexpected problematic cashflow situation.

JayJuanGee one thing I love about you is how you explain things very well and makes it very easy for people to understand you have done justice to this however what you should understand is that when it comes to real life application people usually do or follow what they feel is more easy for them, when it comes to how and when people can distribute there income to different back up funds is totally there choice.
From your explanation float funds are temporary or transitional money that is accessible for a short period before its final use or settlement and that's totally correct.
If our basic expenses is more than our income then we are poor and investing in Bitcoin becomes very difficult if not impossible, if such a person invest in Bitcoin he or she will always end up deeping hands into his or her Bitcoin investment.

[MrNata]

Please clarify when you actually sell bitcoin so you can profit.
What are your sell parameters and have any of them been met since you started buying btc or have you only held and never sold?
Just Curious. 

Sell means Buying Again from a setisfied price close to me.

If you are selling Intelligently sell on a Price in which you are not lossing much and Market is in its Top Blossom then Market will make corrections Buy such dips and stay Happy as Taking profit as well not lossing valueable assets.

It is difficult to have an idea about every change in the market and it takes a lot of time, so I think that buying Bitcoin and keeping it for a long time is a good idea, so an investor does not have to spend a lot of time thinking about the changes in the market movement. If we have such an idea that we will sell, buy again, buy again, sell again, then our profit will not be very high, so we should hold on to them without paying multiple trading fees and set a specific time so that the investor can sell his investment after a certain time or after a certain profit.

Apartt from profitability, there are also so many other benefits that comes when an investor approaches Bitcoin with a long term mentality( 4-10years+). For this benefits to be fully actualized the investor has to have a solid strategy( like DCA), a discretionary income, a safety net( emergency funds) .....

Some of this benefits includes:

1) Reduced stress emotionally
2) Protection from panic or forced selling
3) Freedom from trying to time the market perfectly
4) A steadyy growthh of one's Bitcoin's portfolio regardless of short term price swings...etc.

Joeboy you are correct, all this benefits can only be achieved if you are investing in Bitcoin for long term which is 4 - 10 years, and again just like you said actualizing this you need to use DCA Bitcoin investment strategy, use discretionary income and have a strong backup funds which are emergency, reserve and float funds not just emergency funds lastly which is very important you need to have good management skill without this it will be impossible to have use DCA Bitcoin investment strategy, or even having a Discretionary income and backup funds.
The reason why you will be able to have and use all these is if you have a good management skill.
Without a good management skill you will spend anyhow and in the cause of that you will be lift without discretionary income and you won't be able to build a backup funds which are emergency, reserve and float funds and lastly you will find it difficult to use DCA Bitcoin investment strategy since you will be running out of money quickly if you are not managing your income very well, so good management skill is very important to succeed in long term Bitcoin investment.

Yes, if our income is good, then our investment will continue normally, but if we forget to earn money in the middle of investing, then we will not be able to take our investment far. I definitely agree with this that long-term planning should be made when investing, but many people start investing with a long-term plan and cannot continue investing for a long time only because their financial management is not good. Since the amount of money a person can invest in Bitcoin depends on his income or whether he can form an emergency fund by spending all his expenses, it will be challenging for a person to invest consistently if he has a limited income.
However, if an investor remembers that he will invest even if it is difficult, then he will definitely try to increase his income, but if someone is not serious about investing, then even if his financial management is good, he will not be able to invest consistently.

[bitmover]

I understand you from one side but from the other I think that is frowned upon. Let's say that I am giving you a metric called AVG10 for analyzing the velocity of something based on 10 measurements of its velocity at different points in time. It is 25 m/s. You ask me to provide you the individual data points to verify my calculation, and I tell you it is just one entry of 25 m/s.   People who studied statistics or engineering where precision really matters would pull their hairs. Generally you're not allowed to call something 200-WMA if it is not based on 200 weeks, even with 199 weeks worth of data it would be seen as wrong. Up to you of course I am just sharing my experience.

I did not really understand the idea until recently, since I come to realize that the 200-WMAs that are listed on various cites are extrapolated during the periods prior to their having 200 weeks worth of data... Yet, I hardly have any idea regarding the purity of the data.  If the data is being pulled from one exchange, then there could be problems with the one exchange, and there could be problems with combining several exchanges.  Prior to 2017, there were so many exchanges with very questionable data in terms of its veracity - especially several of the Chinese exchanges.  Some folks were not sure if the exchanges were completely faking the data or if their trading volume was so high based upon their having had no fees, which would incentivize wash trading with BIG players and/or the exchanges themselves. 

Initially, there was a gap in the first 200-weeks of Bitcoin 200WMA line. However, JJG asked me to fill it with the available data, i.e, add the largest moving average possible for first 200 weeks of data.

I think this is a good decision, and won't make people pull their hair off. As:
the first 3 years of bitcoin price data is basically irrelevant for many reasons.
moving averages smaller than 200 weeks are also important and may work nearly same way as 200WMA.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Yes, if our income is good, then our investment will continue normally, but if we forget to earn money in the middle of investing, then we will not be able to take our investment far. I definitely agree with this that long-term planning should be made when investing, but many people start investing with a long-term plan and cannot continue investing for a long time only because their financial management is not good. Since the amount of money a person can invest in Bitcoin depends on his income or whether he can form an emergency fund by spending all his expenses, it will be challenging for a person to invest consistently if he has a limited income.
However, if an investor remembers that he will invest even if it is difficult, then he will definitely try to increase his income, but if someone is not serious about investing, then even if his financial management is good, he will not be able to invest consistently.

You are correct that some people might come to investing into something like bitcoin, yet they have a lot of early stages that they might have to go through in their life such as getting a steady job and/or developing their job skills, so they might not be sure if there might be times where they are not really able to earn money in any kind of steady way.  They also might have bad luck that affects what they had otherwise thought was going to be a solid and steady income source, so then they might have to change their plans and/or they might even even up tapping into their bitcoin stack when they should either be building it or they should at least not spent from what they had already built up. 

We cannot answer what is best for each person, and each person has to make judgements and adjustments along the way, and sometimes, they might make pretty severe mistakes in regards to withdrawing from their bitcoin way too soon.. and then when they withdraw from it, then it is harder to build back up to where it had been prior to their drawing upon it.

It can be pretty sad if a person spends 4-6 years or more building their bitcoin holdings and then they end up screwing up by selling way too much too soon.

We do not have to figure out all of our bitcoin investment plans prior to starting investing in bitcoin, and so we can plan as we go, and surely some of the things that we might need to learn might not be apparent to us until we have already been in bitcoin for awhile.. and one of the difficult things can be figuring out how to moderate our maintenance of our bitcoin, especially if we are otherwise a poor person, and we end up having our bitcoin grow to levels that cause it to be tempting to dip into, and so we have to figure out how long is within our own interest to wait until we start perhaps stop adding to it and/or start to draw upon it.

I understand you from one side but from the other I think that is frowned upon. Let's say that I am giving you a metric called AVG10 for analyzing the velocity of something based on 10 measurements of its velocity at different points in time. It is 25 m/s. You ask me to provide you the individual data points to verify my calculation, and I tell you it is just one entry of 25 m/s.   People who studied statistics or engineering where precision really matters would pull their hairs. Generally you're not allowed to call something 200-WMA if it is not based on 200 weeks, even with 199 weeks worth of data it would be seen as wrong. Up to you of course I am just sharing my experience.

I did not really understand the idea until recently, since I come to realize that the 200-WMAs that are listed on various cites are extrapolated during the periods prior to their having 200 weeks worth of data... Yet, I hardly have any idea regarding the purity of the data.  If the data is being pulled from one exchange, then there could be problems with the one exchange, and there could be problems with combining several exchanges.  Prior to 2017, there were so many exchanges with very questionable data in terms of its veracity - especially several of the Chinese exchanges.  Some folks were not sure if the exchanges were completely faking the data or if their trading volume was so high based upon their having had no fees, which would incentivize wash trading with BIG players and/or the exchanges themselves. 

Initially, there was a gap in the first 200-weeks of Bitcoin 200WMA line. However, JJG asked me to fill it with the available data, i.e, add the largest moving average possible for first 200 weeks of data.

I think this is a good decision, and won't make people pull their hair off. As:
the first 3 years of bitcoin price data is basically irrelevant for many reasons.
moving averages smaller than 200 weeks are also important and may work nearly same way as 200WMA.

I agree that the first 3-4 years of price information that relates to how spot price might relate to the 200-WMA is not as important, even though the price and trade volume information for the first 3-4 years ends up building the 200-WMA.. perhaps giving it something like a mid-2014 date when it finally has a full data set.

I am wonder if there could be some way to put a note in the sustainable withdrawal tool (perhaps at the bottom of the page.  I have not read through the details of the descriptions in the bottom of the page for a while to see if any of it might need to be reworded...

 I consider that it is not an urgent matter, even though it might be good to point out, since it might not be obvious that the 200-WMA only has a full set of data as of mid-2014..

[ZeroVinsonN]

The amount of information here is mind blowing, I'm not too sure about actually being able to completely go through everything but I will definitely try😅😅. It's all just too educational though going through all the factors that could potentially affect whether or not a person will choose to invest in bitcoin and how fast they can invest if the actually decide to invest, without proper understanding of the role these factors can play in an investor who is still in a decision making stage, granted this factors vary from individual to individual as we all have different ways we process and evaluate risks and opportunities we encounter, proper understanding of what works for us as individuals will ultimately play a role on how we go about our bitcoin investment plans and where we go from there.

Please clarify when you actually sell bitcoin so you can profit.
What are your sell parameters and have any of them been met since you started buying btc or have you only held and never sold?
Just Curious. 

Sell means Buying Again from a setisfied price close to me.

If you are selling Intelligently sell on a Price in which you are not lossing much and Market is in its Top Blossom then Market will make corrections Buy such dips and stay Happy as Taking profit as well not lossing valueable assets.

It is difficult to have an idea about every change in the market and it takes a lot of time, so I think that buying Bitcoin and keeping it for a long time is a good idea, so an investor does not have to spend a lot of time thinking about the changes in the market movement. If we have such an idea that we will sell, buy again, buy again, sell again, then our profit will not be very high, so we should hold on to them without paying multiple trading fees and set a specific time so that the investor can sell his investment after a certain time or after a certain profit.

Apartt from profitability, there are also so many other benefits that comes when an investor approaches Bitcoin with a long term mentality( 4-10years+). For this benefits to be fully actualized the investor has to have a solid strategy( like DCA), a discretionary income, a safety net( emergency funds) .....

Some of this benefits includes:

1) Reduced stress emotionally
2) Protection from panic or forced selling
3) Freedom from trying to time the market perfectly
4) A steadyy growthh of one's Bitcoin's portfolio regardless of short term price swings...etc.

Joeboy you are correct, all this benefits can only be achieved if you are investing in Bitcoin for long term which is 4 - 10 years, and again just like you said actualizing this you need to use DCA Bitcoin investment strategy, use discretionary income and have a strong backup funds which are emergency, reserve and float funds not just emergency funds lastly which is very important you need to have good management skill without this it will be impossible to have use DCA Bitcoin investment strategy, or even having a Discretionary income and backup funds.
The reason why you will be able to have and use all these is if you have a good management skill.
Without a good management skill you will spend anyhow and in the cause of that you will be lift without discretionary income and you won't be able to build a backup funds which are emergency, reserve and float funds and lastly you will find it difficult to use DCA Bitcoin investment strategy since you will be running out of money quickly if you are not managing your income very well, so good management skill is very important to succeed in long term Bitcoin investment.

Yes, if our income is good, then our investment will continue normally, but if we forget to earn money in the middle of investing, then we will not be able to take our investment far. I definitely agree with this that long-term planning should be made when investing, but many people start investing with a long-term plan and cannot continue investing for a long time only because their financial management is not good. Since the amount of money a person can invest in Bitcoin depends on his income or whether he can form an emergency fund by spending all his expenses, it will be challenging for a person to invest consistently if he has a limited income.
However, if an investor remembers that he will invest even if it is difficult, then he will definitely try to increase his income, but if someone is not serious about investing, then even if his financial management is good, he will not be able to invest consistently.

At the end of the day it's not just about deciding to invest in bitcoin, what becomes more important is how likely it is for an individual who wants to invest in to be able to sustainably maintain his investment plan and keep investing in the long run without having to back up sometime in-between due to possibly issues related to financial restraint, anyone who wants to invest in bitcoin should be able to provide the finance needed to see their investment through, this isn't something someone with poor financial management skills can pull off you can't spend your entirety on irrelevancies and still expect yourself to be able to keep up with your investment, when you have completely burned through you income you are left with nothing else to invest with and this will then bring your investment to a standstill until you are able to figure yourself out and get your financial management skills in order, and it's not just about being momentarily motivated to invest only to stop when the motivation is gone, a person will need the discipline to actually keep pushing until their investment goals are achieved.

[MrNata]

At the end of the day it's not just about deciding to invest in bitcoin, what becomes more important is how likely it is for an individual who wants to invest in to be able to sustainably maintain his investment plan and keep investing in the long run without having to back up sometime in-between due to possibly issues related to financial restraint, anyone who wants to invest in bitcoin should be able to provide the finance needed to see their investment through, this isn't something someone with poor financial management skills can pull off you can't spend your entirety on irrelevancies and still expect yourself to be able to keep up with your investment, when you have completely burned through you income you are left with nothing else to invest with and this will then bring your investment to a standstill until you are able to figure yourself out and get your financial management skills in order, and it's not just about being momentarily motivated to invest only to stop when the motivation is gone, a person will need the discipline to actually keep pushing until their investment goals are achieved.

First of all, we need to have a certain honest desire, for example, you can use those rich people who have a lot of money but who do not know about Bitcoin investment or who do not invest in Bitcoin. Suppose I earn a relatively small amount of money and the amount of money I earn is spent on running the family, but still I want to have a certain amount of investment at the end of the month, which I will continue for a long time. When this desire is in me, my interest in work will increase and I will not spend the extra money that I used to spend, but I will feel that instead of spending this extra money, I can save this amount at the end of the month and invest in Bitcoin with it. That is, I mean that some work makes people responsible, but we have to have interest in that work. As long as we have interest in investment, we can invest in Bitcoin continuously, but when we do not have interest in investment, then even if there is a lot of money left at the end of the month, it will not be invested.

[ZeroVinsonN]

At the end of the day it's not just about deciding to invest in bitcoin, what becomes more important is how likely it is for an individual who wants to invest in to be able to sustainably maintain his investment plan and keep investing in the long run without having to back up sometime in-between due to possibly issues related to financial restraint, anyone who wants to invest in bitcoin should be able to provide the finance needed to see their investment through, this isn't something someone with poor financial management skills can pull off you can't spend your entirety on irrelevancies and still expect yourself to be able to keep up with your investment, when you have completely burned through you income you are left with nothing else to invest with and this will then bring your investment to a standstill until you are able to figure yourself out and get your financial management skills in order, and it's not just about being momentarily motivated to invest only to stop when the motivation is gone, a person will need the discipline to actually keep pushing until their investment goals are achieved.

First of all, we need to have a certain honest desire, for example, you can use those rich people who have a lot of money but who do not know about Bitcoin investment or who do not invest in Bitcoin. Suppose I earn a relatively small amount of money and the amount of money I earn is spent on running the family, but still I want to have a certain amount of investment at the end of the month, which I will continue for a long time. When this desire is in me, my interest in work will increase and I will not spend the extra money that I used to spend, but I will feel that instead of spending this extra money, I can save this amount at the end of the month and invest in Bitcoin with it. That is, I mean that some work makes people responsible, but we have to have interest in that work. As long as we have interest in investment, we can invest in Bitcoin continuously, but when we do not have interest in investment, then even if there is a lot of money left at the end of the month, it will not be invested.

I get exactly what you’re saying, that genuine interest is what really makes the difference even if someone doesn’t earn much, if the desire is there, they’ll find a way to cut back on little extras and put something aside for Bitcoin. Meanwhile, a person with plenty of money but no real drive won’t even think about it.
I just feel like the interest has to be backed up with discipline too. The desire gets you started, but discipline is what keeps you going when life throws in distractions, expenses, or when the market dips. Having both together is what really makes long term investing work, with discipline your consistency as an investor becomes shaky and you could even lose your way even when the desire that pushed you to start was really strong.

[MrNata]

At the end of the day it's not just about deciding to invest in bitcoin, what becomes more important is how likely it is for an individual who wants to invest in to be able to sustainably maintain his investment plan and keep investing in the long run without having to back up sometime in-between due to possibly issues related to financial restraint, anyone who wants to invest in bitcoin should be able to provide the finance needed to see their investment through, this isn't something someone with poor financial management skills can pull off you can't spend your entirety on irrelevancies and still expect yourself to be able to keep up with your investment, when you have completely burned through you income you are left with nothing else to invest with and this will then bring your investment to a standstill until you are able to figure yourself out and get your financial management skills in order, and it's not just about being momentarily motivated to invest only to stop when the motivation is gone, a person will need the discipline to actually keep pushing until their investment goals are achieved.

First of all, we need to have a certain honest desire, for example, you can use those rich people who have a lot of money but who do not know about Bitcoin investment or who do not invest in Bitcoin. Suppose I earn a relatively small amount of money and the amount of money I earn is spent on running the family, but still I want to have a certain amount of investment at the end of the month, which I will continue for a long time. When this desire is in me, my interest in work will increase and I will not spend the extra money that I used to spend, but I will feel that instead of spending this extra money, I can save this amount at the end of the month and invest in Bitcoin with it. That is, I mean that some work makes people responsible, but we have to have interest in that work. As long as we have interest in investment, we can invest in Bitcoin continuously, but when we do not have interest in investment, then even if there is a lot of money left at the end of the month, it will not be invested.

I get exactly what you’re saying, that genuine interest is what really makes the difference even if someone doesn’t earn much, if the desire is there, they’ll find a way to cut back on little extras and put something aside for Bitcoin. Meanwhile, a person with plenty of money but no real drive won’t even think about it.
I just feel like the interest has to be backed up with discipline too. The desire gets you started, but discipline is what keeps you going when life throws in distractions, expenses, or when the market dips. Having both together is what really makes long term investing work, with discipline your consistency as an investor becomes shaky and you could even lose your way even when the desire that pushed you to start was really strong.

Willpower and discipline help an investor reach his goal. When a person has some responsibility on his shoulders, he works hard to fulfill that responsibility. We must have a desire to invest in Bitcoin and we must be serious about this investment. If we are serious about investment, then we consider investment as a responsibility but we will invest regularly. I think it is good for people to have some responsibility because responsibility can actually bring people out of laziness. Discipline is related to willpower because if there is no discipline in work, work can be chaotic. So those of us who do not think that our income is relatively low and are not investing in Bitcoin can start investing in Bitcoin with a long-term plan, as a result of which we will have a responsibility, as a result of which we will try to earn more money, and this will make us earn money and invest consistently.

[ZeroVinsonN]

Willpower and discipline help an investor reach his goal. When a person has some responsibility on his shoulders, he works hard to fulfill that responsibility. We must have a desire to invest in Bitcoin and we must be serious about this investment. If we are serious about investment, then we consider investment as a responsibility but we will invest regularly. I think it is good for people to have some responsibility because responsibility can actually bring people out of laziness. Discipline is related to willpower because if there is no discipline in work, work can be chaotic. So those of us who do not think that our income is relatively low and are not investing in Bitcoin can start investing in Bitcoin with a long-term plan, as a result of which we will have a responsibility, as a result of which we will try to earn more money, and this will make us earn money and invest consistently.

You are right though, responsibility can completely change the way someone invests. When you treat your Bitcoin investment like a real responsibility, you naturally become more disciplined, consistent and intentional, it stops being something you do only when you “feel like it” and becomes part of your everyday lifestyle but when responsibility is missing, the opposite happens, people waste money on irrelevant things that don’t even matter, they lose focus and their investment journey keeps breaking down, without responsibility and discipline as an anchor, it is very easy to stop halfway, sell too soon or never build up enough in the first place, and over time, this same lack of responsibility can be subconsciously transferred into other parts of our life too, making progress in both personal and financial matters very difficult.
That’s why I agree with you, I think willpower and discipline are strongest when they are tied to responsibility, Desire may spark the interest to invest initially but responsibility is what keeps everything from falling apart in the long run.

[Hamza2424]

It is difficult to have an idea about every change in the market and it takes a lot of time, so I think that buying Bitcoin and keeping it for a long time is a good idea, so an investor does not have to spend a lot of time thinking about the changes in the market movement. If we have such an idea that we will sell, buy again, buy again, sell again, then our profit will not be very high, so we should hold on to them without paying multiple trading fees and set a specific time so that the investor can sell his investment after a certain time or after a certain profit.

You replied to an old post bro, anyway, it is really difficult to have an idea about the change that is going to take place in the market, and that's why those who find it hard to predict the next move in short term, they can at least predict it in the long term and they buy as hodlers, I agree our profits won't be that high, if we have bought one time, we should not sell them and keep accumulating more and more until our targets achieves.

Speaking of fee that does not matter when you are holding long term just try not to increase the input data otherwise, you might have to pay a higher fee when you want to move them, last time I had to move them, the congestion was too high and my input data as well, I had to pay a high fee. Anyway, keep learning bro, holding is the best play out there.

[JayJuanGee]

The amount of information here is mind blowing, I'm not too sure about actually being able to completely go through everything but I will definitely try😅😅. It's all just too educational though going through all the factors that could potentially affect whether or not a person will choose to invest in bitcoin and how fast they can invest if the actually decide to invest, without proper understanding of the role these factors can play in an investor who is still in a decision making stage, granted this factors vary from individual to individual as we all have different ways we process and evaluate risks and opportunities we encounter, proper understanding of what works for us as individuals will ultimately play a role on how we go about our bitcoin investment plans and where we go from there.

With any thread there may well be repetition and information that is not very well organized, since the various posts are put together in differing times, and even the way that I wrote the opening posts, they left room for updating, yet some areas I did not update and/or I did not add the information that I had been originally considering that I was going to add..

There surely can be ways to present information in more simplified ways, and so each of us has our own style, and some people might be better served in their getting information in other ways.. or even more basic ways.. and sure there are likely threads and/or posts that attempt to present information in even more basic ways. 

Even though I have a lot of discussion points in my posts, I repeatedly tend to emphasize getting started and self-learning, so surely there may be some irony that I talk about so many things that we can and/or should consider when we are investing in bitcoin and while we are strengthening our cashflow management systems/practices, yet at the same time, I am also trying to emphasize the value that folks get started and tailor their own practices to their individual circumstances, so if we get started and we are building our bitcoin stash and strengthening our cashflow management systems/practices, then we likely have to continue to adapt.. so that even as our bitcoin is growing or our back up funds are growing, these kinds of matters will affect our assessments regarding how to proceed and the extent to which we might choose to invest (accumulate) bitcoin aggressively or not, and our various assessments regarding if we might have had graduated to maintenance stage and/or to liquidation (sustainable withdrawal) stage.. 

There may be times that we bounce back and forth between stages, even though I do consider the stages in somewhat linear ways, too.

It is difficult to have an idea about every change in the market and it takes a lot of time, so I think that buying Bitcoin and keeping it for a long time is a good idea, so an investor does not have to spend a lot of time thinking about the changes in the market movement. If we have such an idea that we will sell, buy again, buy again, sell again, then our profit will not be very high, so we should hold on to them without paying multiple trading fees and set a specific time so that the investor can sell his investment after a certain time or after a certain profit.

You replied to an old post bro, anyway, it is really difficult to have an idea about the change that is going to take place in the market, and that's why those who find it hard to predict the next move in short term, they can at least predict it in the long term and they buy as hodlers, I agree our profits won't be that high, if we have bought one time, we should not sell them and keep accumulating more and more until our targets achieves.

Speaking of fee that does not matter when you are holding long term just try not to increase the input data otherwise, you might have to pay a higher fee when you want to move them, last time I had to move them, the congestion was too high and my input data as well, I had to pay a high fee. Anyway, keep learning bro, holding is the best play out there.

There is nothing wrong with trying to consider fees and trying to save on fees, so in the beginning we might be trying to search out ways to buy bitcoin and to minimize the amount of fees that we are paying, and the longer that we are in bitcoin, we may well hold our bitcoin in various kinds of locations so that we have options in regards to our transferring, transacting and/or sending of coins.  Fees will be different in different locations, and surely during times when fees are seeming to be high everywhere, then we might not want to transact, yet we also might want to consider how we might avoid putting ourselves in sucha position that we do not have options.

[woez]

Anyone have any suggestions, questions or similar ideas that they would like to share in this thread?  Please do.  

JJG's Bitcoin Investment Idea Outline

This is a scientific study based on data and facts.

Sir, I'll keep it short;

Why don't you write it down and summarize it all in a book so we can read it.

[Dictator69]

JJG's Bitcoin Investment Idea Outline

This is a scientific study based on data and facts.

Sir, I'll keep it short;

Why don't you write it down and summarize it all in a book so we can read it.

HaHa, he is an author, he wrote Harry Potter, so he like to add emotional touch, the ups and downs, the everything in his post that it looks like a real person with emotions, but it serves the purpose, anyone who reads them full, they don't waste time.

I have learned many things about investment by just talking to JJG on another topic and just by his long posts I learned things about crypto I did not know. I still read his posts completely and suggest you to do the same only if you have time.

[Dogedegen]

I am a little confused about the extent to which putting much if any efforts into accuracy of projections is of much relevance, since surely there likely are going to be expectations that future projections are reasonable, yet the past accuracy of the projections is not likely to tell us the extent to which future projections are very good.  Maybe I am being a fud dud in regards identifying some kind of utility with that kind of a visualization - even though surely I understand and appreciate why guys would like to attempt to plan their futures based on events that are more likely to happen rather than not - yet there still seem to be too many variables that could throw off future projections, and perhaps the best that we get is that the 200-WMA is a lagging indicator of current price, so not ONLY can we see that the 200-WMA has historically always gone up, but we can start to see that if the BTC price is spending too much time at or near the 200-WMA, then future 200-WMA numbers might begin to dampen, even if they might not go into the negative. 

There is a lot of significance. I've said it briefly before. There are two main outcome groups here. Either the strategy based on 200-WMA and price growth becomes more consistent and its case stronger, or it becomes weaker and that tells us that this is a strategy that only worked well for some time period. By using predictions and noting down the difference of the reality from the projection we can check this. So we have two cases.

1. Absolute deviations so negative or positive from the projection get smaller with time even if slowly, signifies a continued strengthening of the case for this strategy.
2. Absolute deviations from the projection get bigger with time, signifies that this strategy is becoming wildly inaccurate.

Maybe there could be some way of creating the visualization that you imagine without involving too much work, and sure I am not against something like that if it is not too labor intense to try to make and/or to maintain such a thing.. and as I already mentioned, I have not even been updating my own predictions every 6 months on the website since I cannot even figure out how to do it, even though on my Excel spreadsheet, I update it fairly regularly. .and then lock in the numbers every 6 months so that my attempt to predict the next 6 months will go from the part that is locked in rather than having somewhat outdated data (even if the data might be off by only 10% or less, that level of difference between prior prediction and current projections forward can make quite a large impact several years out, unless there is some kind of change in the future data to cause the wrong future projection to revert back to the mean, which surely could end up happening if we are looking out at a long enough time horizon. .we might have some crazy ass up or down movement, but then several months or maybe even a year or more, we might end up having some crazy ass move that is opposite to the prior crazy ass move that ends up causing the whole thing to appear as a kind of wash, and even allows the earlier prediction to still end up being correct, even though there was a period of time that it was a bit out of kilter in one direction or the other...

To visualize the difference is minimal effort really I think, to generate a chart from one CSV data set is pretty straightforward. Initially to make it look nice if it is going to be combined with all other metrics it could take a bit of effort but other than that it is a very small amount of work. I will do it in Excel myself if bitmover does not want to do for any reason, no problem at all.  

[JayJuanGee]

I am a little confused about the extent to which putting much if any efforts into accuracy of projections is of much relevance, since surely there likely are going to be expectations that future projections are reasonable, yet the past accuracy of the projections is not likely to tell us the extent to which future projections are very good.  Maybe I am being a fud dud in regards identifying some kind of utility with that kind of a visualization - even though surely I understand and appreciate why guys would like to attempt to plan their futures based on events that are more likely to happen rather than not - yet there still seem to be too many variables that could throw off future projections, and perhaps the best that we get is that the 200-WMA is a lagging indicator of current price, so not ONLY can we see that the 200-WMA has historically always gone up, but we can start to see that if the BTC price is spending too much time at or near the 200-WMA, then future 200-WMA numbers might begin to dampen, even if they might not go into the negative. 

There is a lot of significance. I've said it briefly before. There are two main outcome groups here. Either the strategy based on 200-WMA and price growth becomes more consistent and its case stronger, or it becomes weaker and that tells us that this is a strategy that only worked well for some time period. By using predictions and noting down the difference of the reality from the projection we can check this. So we have two cases.

1. Absolute deviations so negative or positive from the projection get smaller with time even if slowly, signifies a continued strengthening of the case for this strategy.
2. Absolute deviations from the projection get bigger with time, signifies that this strategy is becoming wildly inaccurate.

Maybe your framing of the matter is going over my head, since in traditional strategies of sustainable withdraw, there are surely going to be attempts to measure spot price in such a way that whatever withdrawal is not going to deplete the asset faster than it is being withdrawn from... I don't know specifically how asset managers have been dealing with such dynamics except maybe from time to time trying to suggest times in which withdrawals can be greater when the asset is performing better and perhaps withdrawing less when the asset is performing worse.

Use of the 200-WMA is largely an attempt to use the bottom as a measure, even though of course transactions take place at spot prices, yet if the bottom is our measure, then hopefully we will always be withdrawing at some place above the bottom rather than at the bottom or below the bottom.

Even Satoshi's claim that "in the future" bitcoin will either be worth zero or it will play a very important role in society, so those going to zero scenarios continue to exist even while bitcoin is current constantly and continuously going up... which I hardly find surprising that the various network effects (referring to the seven network effects outlined by Trace Mayer) continue to build upon each other in an ongoing persistent ways.

So then if we are working with a presumption that bitcoin is generally and ongoingly going up, there is nothing unreasonable about that presumption, even while at the same time we can recognize and appreciate that bitcoin is not guaranteed to go up..

So we presume bitcoin is going up, so then the quibble might be in regards to the degree that it is going up, and spot price is all over the place and sometimes difficult to assess, while the 200-WMA smoothens out the noise, so that we can see that the ongoing direction is up, even if there is some expectation that the slope of the UP may well have to come down at some point, and the slope of the up could have some negative periods, yet we can still work with the presumption without really knowing how much the up is going to continue to be and/or whether at some point (in the less likely scenarios) that the UP could end up breaking.

You can disagree with some of the presumptions and then come to differing theories in regards to how bitcoin plays out, yet I continue to presume that bitcoin is an ongoing and persistent force that is going up and to the right.. until it doesn't, and my presumptions are not unique in bitcoin circles and I did not come up with these presumptions on my own, since they are likely the presumptions of many, if not most, of the folks who have been studying bitcoin for significant periods of time.

Maybe there could be some way of creating the visualization that you imagine without involving too much work, and sure I am not against something like that if it is not too labor intense to try to make and/or to maintain such a thing.. and as I already mentioned, I have not even been updating my own predictions every 6 months on the website since I cannot even figure out how to do it, even though on my Excel spreadsheet, I update it fairly regularly. .and then lock in the numbers every 6 months so that my attempt to predict the next 6 months will go from the part that is locked in rather than having somewhat outdated data (even if the data might be off by only 10% or less, that level of difference between prior prediction and current projections forward can make quite a large impact several years out, unless there is some kind of change in the future data to cause the wrong future projection to revert back to the mean, which surely could end up happening if we are looking out at a long enough time horizon. .we might have some crazy ass up or down movement, but then several months or maybe even a year or more, we might end up having some crazy ass move that is opposite to the prior crazy ass move that ends up causing the whole thing to appear as a kind of wash, and even allows the earlier prediction to still end up being correct, even though there was a period of time that it was a bit out of kilter in one direction or the other...

To visualize the difference is minimal effort really I think, to generate a chart from one CSV data set is pretty straightforward. Initially to make it look nice if it is going to be combined with all other metrics it could take a bit of effort but other than that it is a very small amount of work. I will do it in Excel myself if bitmover does not want to do for any reason, no problem at all.  

Sure, at any particular point when I publish a new table, within that table, you have me locking in my projections of the 200-WMA for the future 120 years, yet my projections likely change each time that I update the table based on how much the 200-WMA had moved from the previous time and any of my new thinking about the extent to which I might want to change the future numbers.

In other words, so far, I have been ongoingly tweaking my numbers, such as how much of a percentage I expect the 200-WMA to go up each 6 month period, and sure since I have been publishing my projections of the 200-WMA, since December 2021, I have changed my projection formulas several times, and some of my first discussion and projections were based on the 208 -WMA rather than the 200-WMA, since I thought that 208-WMA was better to reflect 4 years, yet 208 WMA was not standard in terms of what other resources are available.. so in that regard, I transitioned my discussions over to focusing on the 200-WMA.

Perhaps it could be the case that with the passage of time my projections of the 200-WMA are starting to get more locked in with better formulas and more details, yet you think that there might be some value in taking those projections at some particular time and then to see how the projections end up differing from what actually ends up happening.

You can already do it with the tables that had already been published, and the future projections of the 200-WMA levels are still to be made to the extent to which any table of projection or the formulas might change in the upcoming tables. 

By the way, it could be possible to publish the projection tables every month or some other periodic basis rather than my so far choosing to have the data points in 6 month increments and then my publishing of the updates being around every 6 months, too.

Another by the way.  You can see that my 11/30/25 data is showing a 44% increase in the 200-WMA, yet so far in this 6 month period, with only 58 days left to go, my projection is showing only around 16% to 20% appreciation of the 200-WMA for this 6 month period, unless the BTC price really picks up in these last 58-ish days. which means the 200-WMA may well end somewhere in the $55.5k to $57.5k region rather than the $69k-ish number that I had so optimistically projected when that latest table was published in the beginning of August..