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Are you talking about yourself? or someone else?
Many folks will not even be able to accumulate enough bitcoin in 6-8 years, unless they might be able to invest more than 10% of their income into bitcoin and/or maybe they are able to front load their investment... and so I am not sure how you can proclaim that 6-8 years could be a standard for normal people, unless there are some special circumstances that might be available to what you consider to be a "standard" group.
Another thing is what do you plan to do after 6-8 years? You planning to sell your bitcoin at that point or doing something else?
Talking about myself.
Spreading 10% of your income across accumulating it for 6-8 may not be a significant sum total for many folks but there are those that will see it as a something big that was worth the years of accumulation. Not every guy can have sufficient money to front-load his Bitcoin investment in the given time-span, even if they cannot but can remain consistent with their accumulation routine without faulting by missing many times to buy accumulate.
The chosen time of 6-8 years is personal and feasible to accomplish to me, and since Bitcoin investment time plan does not have to be rigid, I can always relax the time-span and extend it where am not satisfied with what has been accumulated in this given years.
Of course, we are going to individually tailor our goals, and we might not even realize that we end up selling too much too soon.
Frequently, in life, we have circumstances that normal people are ONLY able to work and to earn income for a certain time of their lives, and then they may or may not have gotten their finances up to a point in which they can live off of their investments and perhaps even stop working early based on their getting their finances to a stong enough point that their investments will support their standard of living.
Bitcoin seems like a kind of investment that is capable of generating an income to be able to either support normal people to replace their income from work or alternatively to supplement any income that they might continue to have, and surely there are some folks who end up selling their bitcoin way too soon (and/or not accumulating enough bitcoin) so they end up missing opportunities that may well could have had been or should have had been in their grasp, if they would have had given enough priority to building and/or sustaining their bitcoin investment.
It seems to me that the guys who may well have the more strained abilities to invest into bitcoin (like their income is low), and they are not able to put as much of a percentage of their income into bitcoin, even if they cannot figure out ways to increase their income, may well still have alternative ways of still being able to builld up their bitcoin investment to a high enough level by allowing for more time to pass while continuing to hang onto their investment, whether they continue to put money into it or not... There can be periods of putting money in bitcoin and periods in which time just passes without any additional buying of bitcoin and no selling of bitcoin either, and then perhaps later down the road to begin to start to draw from the bitcoin after it had more time to mature and to compound value upon itself.
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I understand what you are saying, and I agree with you that the interest rate of a loan is very important, it makes more sense that a smaller loan with a high interest rate can end up costing more over time than a bigger loan with a much lower interest rate, so it makes sense to focus on paying off the high interest loan first rather than on which is higher.
But my point is that the total amount of debt still matters too, not just the interest rate, for example, even if someone has a loan with a low interest rate, if the total amount is very large, it can still put a lot of pressure on them, they still have to make regular payments, and that can affect how much money they have left every month If they are paying in installments on a monthly basis, if for any reason something goes wrong that large debt can quickly become a serious problem, even if the interest rate is low, that's why I was saying people shouldn't rush into investing, especially when they already have a lot of debt.
In real life, things don't always go as planned, if someone is investing while also trying to settle their debts, and their back up fund isn't capable of handling things if their income stops or reduces, they might be forced to sell their investment just to keep up with paying their debt, that could mean selling at a loss, which puts them in a worse position.
For sure, each person has to figure out how to deal with their financial situation and the extent to which they can start to invest into bitcoin from where they are at and if the debt looming over their head might need to be dealt with first, and surely some guys might not have had realistically assessed the risks that might exist within the amount of debt that they had already ended up building up.. and perhaps their having had accumulated so much debt also shows that they have some of their own problematic personality issues in that they might not either be able to control their wants and/or to properly measure how they are going to deal with them into the future.
It is very likely that they in debt because they lack simple control on their wants and ended up taking loan to indulge themselves, if this is the case I don't see that person making any good improvements on investing in bitcoin, if they can't control what pushes them to take out loans then they probably won't be able to control themselves from taking out of their bitcoin investment if they ever fell the need to indulge themselves again, it's easier to deal with if the loan was taken for something important that could not be avoided like something their backup funds couldn't handle probably because they haven't saved up enough yet, things like this happen.
I get your point that some guys might have character flaws and they might not realize the difference between using debt for consumption and using debt for investment, so there can be some better uses of debt. No matter the reason there can be ways to deal with the debt, and yeah, maybe some guys are not able to overcome their already existing character flaws an their inabilities to control their consumption.
So, yeah, they might both need to identify that they have issues and they might also need to get their consumption under control.
It might not even be their debt, people inherit more than assets these days and having to pay off a debt you inherited can be a serious drag and depending on how much it's taking from you (the investor) to service they might not be able to accumulate bitcoin at the time (though if they still have discretionary income left over then they can buy, not as much as they would without the debt but it's probably better than nothing) until the debt is settled.
Sure. There could be cases in which they end up with more debt than they wished that they had, and they had not even caused the debt, yet they end up with responsibility over such debt, to the extent that they are not able to negotiate some ways to get out of the debt. There surely can be various aspects of the lives of different people that are not fair, even though they have to try to figure out the better ways of attempting to deal with the circumstances that they find themselves in.
So we might consider the possibility that guys who had got themselves into such a position might have some issues to improve their own cashflow management practices and their distinguishing between wants and needs.. and there could be guys who might realize, once they really assess the situation, that they need to take some drastic moves to lower their absolute level of debt - even though there could be ways to deal with the debt and to invest into bitcoin at the same time, depending on the severity of the matter and even the extent to which back up funds are in place (as you mentioned). A guy who has such outstanding debt, he likely should be engaging in a practice to keep higher levels of back up funds and also trying to figure out ways to increase his discretionary income by increasing his income and/or cutting his expenses.
If the debt is personal then servicing it would be easier since the debt was expected, if it's to be paid in installments as most loans are then depending on how much they are to pay in the stipulated periods of time they could definitely still accumulate bitcoin, if they are servicing the loan from their discretionary income and it's taking about 70% in installments then they still have about 30% for other things,(although I don't quite believe they will be servicing the loan with their discretionary income, at that point that expense is essential and they can only tell if they have any discretionary income available after paying the loan and paying for other essentials, even though they are still paying in installments) we can't expect them to invest all in bitcoin but they are still in a good position to be able to keep up with their investment while still paying back then loan, and like you said they can get more discretionary income by increasing their income or cutting down on their expenses
Many times loans (or installments) are not part of discretionary expenses, unless there might be some degree that the amounts might be negotiable or the timelines for payment and/or the fees. So, loan repayment may have a certain level of priority, even though I mentioned that there could also be options for extra payments to the extent that some loans might have higher interest rates and then an incentive for person to pay the higher interest rate loans first.
There also could be situations that loans are so burdensome that default seems the better of options, and surely there can be costs to default that might not be worth undergoing, so guys might consider the extent to which default might be a reasonable option that they might want to consider.
Let's say a beginner rush into lump sum without good understanding of it, they will obviously get a different result from someone who have been successful using it.
Make me understand how two people will use the lump sum strategy the right way and get different results. Provided that they are investing with same amount of money, and they are buying at the same price range and their holding period are the same, they are most likely going to get same result. They will only get different results if the variables I mentioned above are not the same. Bitcoin investment is a straightforward something, if a group of people do the same thing the right way it should be done, they are all likely going to get the same result. If anyone gets a different result from the group, the person might have done something differently from what others did. So the issues isn’t with the strategy used, but the individuals that didn’t do it correctly.
You seem to have had devolved your response into a crazy-ass strawman @New Judgement.
Of course, no matter the strategy, the devil might be in the details, and results may well vary, yet anyone who is investing in the long term - such as 4-10 years or longer, then they are hopefully best tailoring their strategy to their own cashflow situation and/or any other pertinent matters, and the price performance of the investment and even perhaps the quantity of bitcoin accumulated may well not matter as much to any individual as compared with their ability to tailor whatever funds that they had available to their own circumstances and preferences.
As you seem to imply, there can be two guys with similar income and/or expense situations, yet they might not necessarily deploy their bitcoin buys in the same way.
The guy who earns $30k per year ($2,500 per month) with $1,500 per month in expense, he has $1k of discretionary funds each month to figure out how much he is going to invest, save and/or discretionarily consume. He also may have factors that he needs to consider from his
9 individual factors.
Furthermore if he figures that he will buy $100 per week of bitcoin, yet if after a year of investing into bitcoin, if he gets a bonus of $2k, then he has to figure if he is going to put that into bitcoin or if he is going to put it into his back up funds or discretionarily consume it.... And, if he decides to put it into bitcoin, then he has to figure out how much he will buy right away, DCA and/or buy on dips that may or may not end up happening.
We cannot just presume guys with similar income/expense situations are going to invest their discretionary funds in the same way or have the same results. Also, I frequently, that guys are totally in charge of figuring out their level of aggressiveness in regards to how much they put into bitcoin and also other ways that they might exercise various judgements related to their finances that may or may not put them in risky situations - and some guys, within their personality types, seem to enjoy more risk than others, which may well end up with differeing performance levels (results).
Some guys are more organized, detailed oriented and learning from their experiences more than others (or actively attempting to manage and tweak what they are doing in detailed ways of monitoring what they are doing and how they are performing), and different levels of organization may well have differing results, and it is within each persons relatively broad range of reasoning to make those kinds of choices to match up with their personality preferences, and sure some of them might get bit in the ass from their own style that they might have to later adjust, and some guys might stay stubborn and choose not to adjust. These are discretionary matters and may well end up with differing results that may well magnify, especially over 10-ish years or more of investing and no ability to turn back the clock once the 10 years had passed.
Like what you are trying to say in the bold part of your comment is that some investors have used those strategies you mentioned and it's always working for them, well I don't think so because no one can always time the market and always make profits,
It's good that as a long-term bitcoin investor as you keep on accumulating bitcoin overtime that you try using other accumulation strategies to mix with your ongoing DCA for a faster growth of your bitcoin stash.
If you just only stick to DCA, it will take a very long period of time to reach your bitcoin target and you wouldn't see the opportunity around you to lump sum when you can.
The only problem with these two strategies is if you're waiting without buying any bitcoin when your discretionary income is available. Some people think that in order for you to lump sum, you need a big amount of money but they don't know that you can lump sum with any amount of money. Building a reserve funds to buy at the dip is good in order for you to buy more bitcoin in addition to your ongoing DCA.
We should be careful in spreading information that suggests that DCA is going to be too slow in terms of accumulating bitcoin, since DCA can be deployed in such a way that aggressively invests as much discretionary funds are available as they become available.
Sure, there might be instances in which lump sums might come available or might be made to come available and provide some extra opportunities to invest more value into bitcoin, yet in some ways if the lump sum is merely coming available, then a practice that largely already decides how much to invest whenever the money comes available still fits into DCA, even if it might be a larger amount that happens to come available at any given time.
let's say for instance you Lump Sum or DIP hunt when you feel was the perfect time to do so and unfortunately the price keeps going down, I don't think you will be in profit at that moment because you will lose some figures of your capital.
Even if you are using DCA to accumulate bitcoin consistently, if the price of bitcoin dips drastically,
your portfolio will still go down in value. DCA strategy isn't a dip resistant.
This is a good point.. and guys will frequently get overly worked up about how much value their bitcoin is losing on paper, and get discouraged from ongoingly buying bitcoin.
Even after only 6-ish months investing in bitcoin, the size of the loss of value on paper may well greatly exceed any amount of additional bitcoin that can be bought during the dip.. So guys lose their focus and sometimes cut back on their dip buying or even completely eliminate their dip buying... which frequently ends up as an exercise in poor judgement.
The longer a person is in bitcoin, even thinking 4-8 years or longer, then the amount of value ongoingly getting put into bitcoin seems to be outrageously dwarfed by how much the value pof the BTC holdings are changing from the changes in the BTC price.
Guys are likely going to continue to differ in both their perceptions of the situation and how they choose to react and the extent to which they keep buying bitcoin or modify their bitcoin buying practices, and sometimes after 10 years or more of investing into bitcoin, they will end up regretting their choices from 10 years earlier (that they cannot go back and change) in regards to some of their bitcoin accumulation choices/strategies..
Bitcoin is a long-term investment so why worry about short term dip or price when you're expected to invest in a long term and hodli. Profit shouldn't be your concern but ongoingly, buying regularly with consistency and persistence overtime.
Yep. Reinforcing behaviors and beliefs with ongoing and persistent buying practices can help to keep a person in a better perspective in regards to bitcoin and its price.
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The honest truth is that there will certainly be a dip, might not be immediately but there will certainly be, and one exercising patients to wait for it is genuinely not bad and it will be worth it,
Yes I know many people say "what if no dip occur"
Basically since we clearly use the past data of Bitcoin and its performance to some how get an idea of how it's future may go, there is not a period in the market where by the market did not make a dip, so there will definitely be a dip,
So waiting for the dip isn't bad as well. it depends on what strategy you are moved to use personally.
Nevertheless it is a different case for newbies, I will advise newbies to start with DCA, then when they get old enough in the investment to learn alot of things, they can observe introducing other strategies if they aren't satisfied.
You may well be polluting this thread with "dip buying" nonsense, especially since you are suggesting that DCA is better for newbies but not better for supposed "seasoned" folks who have it all figured out? and who are therefore going to deploy waiting rather than ongoing buying.
Are you suggesting that the experienced persons can start to wait rather than ongoingly buy because: 1) they already have enough bitcoin? or 2) they are able to identify bitcoin's future price direction or 3) they are not really investing but instead trading? or 4) you have some other explanation regarding why waiting is better than ongoing buying?
You have been registered here for slightly more than a year and you got it figured out? You already have enough coin? Have you been deploying this waiting strategy? It is true that BTC prices went down in the past year, yet you believe that waiting is a better strategy? In regards to bitcoin, how did you deal with the last year-ish? Were you in bitcoin prior to March 2025? If so what did you do prior to March 2025 in regards to bitcoin?
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The beauty of the DCA strategy is that it cuts across all level of financial conditions even if its from a inheritance you can still apply the DCA strategy.
You are highlighting 2 kinds of DCA.
One kind of DCA is to buy BTC as the money comes available (like in a regular income situation)
Another kinds of DCA is to defer buying bitcoin or to spread out buying even though the money is already available.
They are both DCA, even though they have slightly different motivations behind them and they involve judgement calls in regards to how the person might feel about how he is going to increase his bitcoin exposure.
I frequently suggest that when a lump sum is available, then at least all three methods of DCA, buy right away and/or buy the dip should at least be considered, even if all three systems do not end up getting deployed.
Meaning you can still split the inheritance as consumption, investment and savings.
Well, yeah. When there are discretionary funds, then there are three choices in how they could be spent (or allocated), so in your inheritance example, you might have some expenses that you attribute to the inheritance, yet then once the expenses are accounted for, then the remainder is discretionary funds.. ..
Where the consumption is allocated to your basic needs,
You seem to be mixing up regular expenses (needs) with discretionary expenses (wants).
the investment goes to you bitcoin which you can also split or stretch for long period of time depending on how you want it to go.
Of course investment comes from discretionary funds, even though it could get spread out.. so if a person receives $1,000 in inheritance and decides to allocate all of it towards DCA at a rate of $50 per week for the next 20 weeks, then the balance of the $1k will have to get held somewhere (presumptively in reserve funds), and each week, $50 gets used to buy bitcoin, yet at the same, if some other situation came up that money is needed or some other desire that has higher priority than the bitcoin, then some or all of whatever of that money is in the reserve funds could get used for that other purpose.
The lastly the saving goes to your emergency fund to ensure you dont run bankrupt and start liquidating your investment to cover up the lapses.
Savings could be emergency funds or reserve funds...and sometimes those categories could overlap, even though perhaps each of us has certain levels that we will not let our various back up funds go below, absent some likely basic expenses that we consider emergency that would justify causing the emergency funds to go below our preferred level..
