Those waiting for dips are just wasting so much time for nothing. Many people now understands that it not about waiting for dips before one can accumulate bitcoin anymore but with the help of DCA strategy one can keep up with constant accumulation and not feeling fall out from the market and even during the dips we take it as opportunity to buy at lows but waiting for the dips is a waste of time.
We must have some strategies to hold Bitcoin in the long term, because if we imagine that Bitcoin will hold and move forward in the long term, then the DCA strategy will definitely play the best role. In addition to this, we can take some other steps, by which the Bitcoin investment will be protected. We must pay attention to
prudent income, because to move forward in the future, we definitely need
prudent income. Our
prudent income also plays a huge role in holding Bitcoin investment properly and investing regularly.
What the fuck is prudent income?
Prudence means to use good judgement, yet it is vague as fuck to be describing income as prudent. Stop using such vague language because it is not saying anything that is helpful nor explanatory.
While your comments regarding cash flow, expense reduction, and increasing income is very valid, I believe that there needs to be a better balance to them when relating to the accumulation of Bitcoin.
I agree and If we follow the rules of thumb when discussing investment ideas in BTC, there are basically three points: accumulate when you can, hold for a certain period of time, and only sell if it significantly improves your position.
I am not sure if this makes sense. Maybe you can explain a bit better?
I understand guys go through accumulation phase.. and so what is that like from your perspective?
Then maybe they will go through a period in which they are neither buying nor selling.. perhaps a maintenance stage.
And then they will reach a stage of overaccumulation.. .. where they would be able to sell portions of their bitcoin stash..
If they are selling portions without depleting their principle then that would be sustainable, and if they are depleting their principle that would not be sustainable.
Maybe you can give some examples to explain how your three investment points fit in with these ideas?
However, we've often noticed that some haven't reached the right time. I imagine some people take a profits or even go all-in, but certainly those decisions vary and not all of them. The key, in my opinion, isn't to hold the maximum BTC stack forever, but to balance it out like you say above and for reminder BTC is still at 76K now..
Maybe you can give an example of what you mean. What might be some ways in which guys might have had "reached the right time," and if they "reach the right time," then what can happen?
While your comments regarding cash flow, expense reduction, and increasing income is very valid, I believe that there needs to be a better balance to them when relating to the accumulation of Bitcoin.
I agree and If we follow the rules of thumb when discussing investment ideas in BTC, there are basically three points: accumulate when you can, hold for a certain period of time, and only sell if it significantly improves your position. However, we've often noticed that some haven't reached the right time.
I imagine some people take a profits or even go all-in, but certainly those decisions vary and not all of them. The key, in my opinion, isn't to hold the maximum BTC stack forever, but to balance it out like you say above and for reminder BTC is still at 76K now..
The only period or time an investor should take or think of taking profit is when they have gotten to their overaccumulation stage otherwise it becomes trading and you made mentioned of going all in, there is nothing wrong to go all in, in our Bitcoin investment especially if we are using our discretionary income to go all in because our discretionary income is what we can afford to lose but it becomes dangerous when someone uses money outside their discretionary income to go all in because there's always a consequences of that action or decision.
Yeah, but what does it mean to "go all in"? Sure people say it, but what does it mean? I am pretty sure that "all in" is going to have quite a bit of variance, and there surely could be ways in which "going all in" could be problematic, especially if BTC prices drop a lot and the person needs cash to pay his bills.
Many normal folks need to measure the amount that they have in bitcoin, especially if they earn and their bills are in fiat. Some examples of "all in" might be helpful to understand what is meant by such expression and if it means anything more than people just saying it but not really meaning what they seem to be saying.
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Ambiguity creates confusion. Many of those who focus on continuous buying and investing with no trading, no shitcoins and no selling, may have bought continuously for a period of 4 years, and perhaps the longer they stay in Bitcoin. The more likely it is that the value of the Bitcoin they accumulate will be more than their money. Of course, there are people whose cash flow situation is different and even their ability to continue buying Bitcoin is different. Personally, I often consider that whenever a person is buying Bitcoin, they should have at least a 4-year time frame for any coin they buy. So if the person continues to buy Bitcoin for more than 4 years, there may be some confusion in calculating the price and even calculating different currency management plans or perhaps even going into some kind of sustainable withdrawal state, but the reality for a vast majority of the general public is that it will take them more than 4 years to build up their Bitcoin holdings unless they have some other money outside of their regular income and they are simply able to invest more than their discretionary income. Yet most people are able to build up any investment they can from their discretionary income in most cases and after a few years, perhaps over 4 years, they are reaching a point where they can potentially reallocate from one asset to another that can generate significant amounts from investments. So that such reallocation can potentially be justified. If such a typical investor decides to go down the path of such reallocation.
It makes a difference if a person invests in bitcoin in chunks or if the investment might be smoothly spread through a certain period of time, whether that is 4 years or some other period of time.
It also may well make a difference what the bitcoin price did during that time. It can be quite difficult to talk in abstraction.
as you suggested, if a guy came to bitcoin 4 years ago and he ONLY had the income from his employment, then he would be somewhat limited with how much he is able to put in from his discretionary funds and the extent to which he had already buit up his back, up funds prior to coming into bitcoin or if he were to need to build up his back up funds while he was also investing into bitcoin.
Another guy might be in a similar income situation, yet if he came to bitcoin and he had already had 10 years or more investing, then he might be able to reallocate from his other investments, or his other investment can serve as forms of back up funds that still allow him to invest more aggressively into bitcoin as compared with someone who did not have those other investments and/or back up resources.
It does not seem as likely a scenario that a guy would invest in bitcoin for 4 years in a perhaps modest or even whimpy way and then after 4 years increase his level of aggressiveness, even though sure, there could be scenarios in which a guy was not making as much money in his first 4 years of being in bitcoin, and his income ended up going up at a later time down the road, such as he got a promotion or maybe he received an inheritance, so then the amount of his discretionary funds became way greater than it had been in his earlier years of investing into bitcoin. In a similar vein, it could also be the case that a guy starts out investing in bitcoin in a fairly conservative way, yet after 4 years or more being involved in bitcoin, maybe his income does not really improve, yet his conviction (and confidence) in regards to bitcoin improves, which then motivates him to invest more aggressively into bitcoin and maybe even motivates him to figure out ways to try to increase his income and/or to decrease his expenses.
There are situations that are more typical and not so typical situations that guys might find themselves into, even though surely each of us ends up trying to identify and figure out the ways in which we can balance our own particulars and figure out the extent that we might try to push our level of bitcoin accumulation aggressiveness, or maybe to stay with a more modest approach to our bitcoin accumulation.. and there surely can end up being some value in not pushing our limits too much, since if we are pushing our limits there could be ways that we end up making mistakes that we would not have had made if we had taken a more modest and balanced approach to make sure that we are not crossing over lines that may well end up causing us towards experiencing unnecessary financial and/or psychological damages.
While your comments regarding cash flow, expense reduction, and increasing income is very valid, I believe that there needs to be a better balance to them when relating to the accumulation of Bitcoin.
I agree and If we follow the rules of thumb when discussing investment ideas in BTC, there are basically three points: accumulate when you can, hold for a certain period of time, and only sell if it significantly improves your position. However, we've often noticed that some haven't reached the right time. I imagine some people take a profits or even go all-in, but certainly those decisions vary and not all of them. The key, in my opinion, isn't to hold the maximum BTC stack forever, but to balance it out like you say above and for reminder BTC is still at 76K now..
The only period or time an investor should take or think of taking profit is when they have gotten to their overaccumulation stage otherwise it becomes trading
Yeah the only time you should be allowed to start selling your bitcoin is when you have reached your target or you have gotten to your over accumulation stage, however, in some situations I will not call it trading if you eventually start selling when you have not reached your target or you have not gotten to your over accumulation stage and the reason why I will not call it trading is because there are some people because of their target or the low income they earn they can be accommodating and holding for 10 years or more and still they have not gotten to their over accumulation stage if they decide to be selling their bitcoin they can’t be called traders because a trader can’t hold for that long.
Like you mentioned, whether a guy had reached overaccumulation status or not, he might decide to start selling some or all of his bitcoin, which may or may not be the right decision, yet people have to figure out their own situations. I would suggest that such person is trading if he is selling some or all of his bitcoin with an intention to buy back cheaper, and a person is not trading if he is selling merely for the purpose of substituting or supplementing his income with no intention to buy back cheaper.
Yeah the only time you should be allowed to start selling your bitcoin is when you have reached your target or you have gotten to your over accumulation stage, however, in some situations I will not call it trading if you eventually start selling when you have not reached your target or you have not gotten to your over accumulation stage and the reason why I will not call it trading is because there are some people because of their target or the low income they earn they can be accommodating and holding for 10 years or more and still they have not gotten to their over accumulation stage if they decide to be selling their bitcoin they can’t be called traders because a trader can’t hold for that long.
It's wrong to sell part of your bitcoin when you're still in your accumulation stage because your profit isn't running but compounding in your portfolio.
I did not say it is good to sell your bitcoin when you have not reached your target or gotten to your over accumulation stage please you should try and read a post to the end, I was only pointing out the fact that you cannot call every one that sell when they have not reached their over accumulation stage a trader because some have been holding for 10 years and above and has not reached their over accumulation stage maybe because of their big target or low income earnings.
Maybe I misread your earlier post? Now, after your further clarification.. you seem to be suggesting that the reason for the change of plan and the starting to sell has to do with either impatience (like 10 years has been enough time, and they feel that they deserve to discontinue based on their having had spent enough time building their investment).. or alternatively, they are coming to a realization (or at least a conclusion) that they had set their goals too high.. so in some sense, by starting to sell, they are moving their goals down to a lower place that they had already reached.
In the end, it is their conclusion how to manage the extent to which they consider themselves to continue to be in their accumulation stage and perhaps how fast they might move from being in their accumulation phase and then transitioning into their sustainable withdrawal phase (and in your case, it might not even be sustainable withdrawal that they are entering into, instead they are moving into withdrawing whatever they can.. and probably depleting their principle due to what seems to be lack of patience).
In the end they can do what they like, yet it seems in my experience, there tends to be a transition phase between accumulation and starting to withdraw.. .so after many years of accumulating, guys might start to conclude that they are not getting as much bang for the buck when they continue to add to their bitcoin stash.. so instead of buying they go through a maintenance stage that might last 2-4 years or even longer where they are largely neither buying more bitcoin and they are not really selling bitcoin either.. they are just letting their bitcoin ride for a bit longer prior to starting any of their withdrawal, which may well make it easier to start to do their withdrawal in a sustainable way once they start to do it a few years after they had already largely stopped accumulating.. whether they employ price based sustainable withdrawal or time based sustainable withdrawal or a combination of both.
The problem is that when you sell for a reason, you will see another reason to sell and that's lack of discipline on hodling.
If someone has been holding for 10 years and above, and has not reached his or her over accumulation stage then decide to sell, you should know that he or she has no other option but to sell his or her bitcoin,
Sometimes impatient folks fail/refuse to consider all of the options, even though surely they may well end up getting into a place where it might start to make sense to start to employ some level of withdrawal.. yet it might not necessarily mean to withdraw as much as they might believe that they need to do.
Let's say that a person who had an income of $20k per year spent the last 10 years accumulating bitcoin at $20 per week, and they had a goal to get their income from their bitcoin stash so that they would be able to withdraw $40k per year from it, and so over the past 10 years, they had invested right around $10,500 into bitcoin, and their bitcoin stash is currently right around 2.24 bitcoin.
If they assess
2.24 bitcoin, they calculate that right now, they could sustainably withdraw right around $13.5k per year and $1,125 per month, which is far lower than their goal of being able to withdraw $40k per year. They largely realize that they had invested too whimpily into bitcoin, yet they consider that right now they are not really in any kind of a financial or psychological position to make up for their past mistakes of being overly whimpy in their bitcoin investment.
So, there could be cases where guys had gotten themselves into their own pickle or maybe even if they had not gotten themselves into their own pickle, they are still short of their aspirations.. yet personally, I doubt that the solution is to start to withdraw, even though you consider that they might come to such a conclusion and consider their solution to be reasonable.
I am actually of the belief that a person with 2.24 BTC right now who is able to hold such BTC until late 2030 (which surely is 4.5 years from now), they would be able to sustainably withdraw at a rate of $40k per year by that time on that amount of BTC. I know that
my current fuck you status chart shows an earlier date for such withdrawal levels, so there surely would be needs to monitor the situation and decisions whether to continue to build the bitcoin holdings or to just work on other aspects of finances and psychology while keeping that bitcoin stash at the same quantity (and for sure making sure that the stash is adequately protected).
you can’t have bitcoin and you have an emergency or problem that has eaten up all your emergency funds, and still it’s not solved, let’s take for example motor accident and the medical bills has eaten up all your emergency funds at this stage won’t you sell your bitcoin?
Let be real please.
You seem to be changing the scenario now (aka moving the goal posts).
Of course, certain kinds of emergencies would cause you to deplete any back up funds that you have remaining, and you might end up in a situation in which the only funds that you have remaining is your bitcoin, and sometimes the circumstances of the loss of income and/or increase in expenses were beyond any cashflow shortages that were within reasonable expectations. So of course in situations that all other funds have been exhausted, then bitcoin might be the ONLY option... and that ends up getting depleted, too.
We make choices regarding our levels of preparations, the aggressiveness level of our bitcoin investment and even our levels in which we protect our bitcoin, and sometimes when there are lessening of income and/or increases in expenses, there is nothing that we can do, after they happen, to go back and to prepare ourselves better (psychologically and/or financially).
Why would you wait for the dip when you can DCA regularly using your discretionary income. As long as you have a good source of discretionary income there is no point waiting for the dip because it's will waste your time and opportunities. You should focus on accumulating consistently with your discretionary income rather than wasting your valuable time timing the market for the perfect dip you aren't sure will happen.
Anyone one who want to for wait for dip before they can invest in the Bitcoin are never ready to invest. Because the investment is not all about waiting for the dip, by the time some are there waiting for the dip those who are ready to use their discretionary funds have gone far in the investments; now like this
ever since the DCA method was introduced Bitcoin investment been comes more easier than before.Because with this DCA you can able to accumulate a Bitcoin in a short period of time without waiting for the dip before they can accumulate the Bitcoin, we only knows today but we don’t know how tomorrow will goes if we said can wait for the dip; and things later change before then we end up of zero.
Don't act like we (or bitcoiners) invented DCA. The DCA method has probably been around for more than 100 years, and it was named in a book by Ben Graham in 1949.
AI rendition:
>>>"Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) was first popularized and coined by value investor Benjamin Graham in his classic 1949 book, The Intelligent Investor."<<<<<
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It’s not just about reaching your over accumulation stage band then decide you can take profits, because there’s a possibility that you can reach accumulation targets or over accumulation and still not be in a profitable position reasonably in such a way that even if you take the profit it won’t affect your bitcoin holdings. You should be able to hold for at least a minimum of 5-10 years or more. Reaching over accumulation stage is not a guarantee you must be in profit, and there could be a situation where by most investors could possibly buy bitcoin for just a few period of time and declare or claim that they have reached their accumulation target or over accumulation so in this case it’s very unrealistic to say that if an investor have reached accumulation target or over accumulation that they can start taking profits, such statements could be misleading. It’s advisable for a long term investor to focus on figuring out discretionary incomes to consistently or perhaps persistently accumulate bitcoin and hold for at least a minimum of 5-10 years or more.
You might need an example to illustrate what you are saying Silikiem
I understand that many times we are asserting and reasserting that there is no guarantee that we are going to be in profits, even if we get to be 10 years or more down the road.
Yet when we are calculating where we expect to be (or where we want to be), we are likely considering both the amount of BTC accumulated and the anticipated dollar value of the BTC at the time when we expect that we are going to be entering into some form of sustainable withdrawal. There also could be a price element and a time element and also potentially some flexibility in terms of determinations that the BTC stash is enough or more than enough. Even though we might not be focusing on profits, there is likely a bit of a presumption that the stash needs to be in profits in order for the formulas to work, yet at the same time, there could be some guys that may well say that at a certain time, they are starting to enter sustainable withdrawal no matter what the actual price might be..
.....such as if they might say to themselves something like this:
"Once I reach 62 years old, then I am going to start to withdraw from my BTC within the sustainable withdrawal formula no matter what is the then value of the BTC."
If they are currently 52 years old, and they had already been accumulating bitcoin for 3 years, then that might be a bit of a more realistic projection, as compared with if they are already 59 and they had been accumulating for the prior 3 years, and they do not have as much wiggle room as compared with the person who is younger, even though surely some guys who are even younger might have health problems that provide some difficulties for their being able to project very far into the future in terms of their investment timeline and when they might feel that they have to transition into some form of sustainable withdrawal, whether they had built up their bitcoin stash (prior to that) enough or not.
It’s not just about reaching your over accumulation stage band then decide you can take profits, because there’s a possibility that you can reach accumulation targets or over accumulation and still not be in a profitable position reasonably in such a way that even if you take the profit it won’t affect your bitcoin holdings. You should be able to hold for at least a minimum of 5-10 years or more. Reaching over accumulation stage is not a guarantee you must be in profit, and there could be a situation where by most investors could possibly buy bitcoin for just a few period of time and declare or claim that they have reached their accumulation target or over accumulation so in this case it’s very unrealistic to say that if an investor have reached accumulation target or over accumulation that they can start taking profits, such statements could be misleading. It’s advisable for a long term investor to focus on figuring out discretionary incomes to consistently or perhaps persistently accumulate bitcoin and hold for at least a minimum of 5-10 years or more.
You’re right that over accumulation isn’t a guarantee of profit or success infact nothing really is. It's possible to be at over accumulation point and still not be at profit. I don’t even think we should be talking about taking profits at this stage because it could easily mislead beginners into believing they can cash out at any time. For long term investors taking profits shouldn’t be the main focus but more buys. Over accumulation is also not something that is easily reached in reality so the best approach is to stay focused on your strategy and keep accumulating as much as possible consistently using DCA.
It seems to me that even if we might not be overly focusing on profits, there is a bit of a presumption that overaccumulation would also be in profits, even though I get (and even agree) that profits are not guaranteed, even though they make the various sustainable withdrawal formulas work better...especially if we might imagine that if we had been investing at a regular rate (such as the same amount weekly) for 4 years, then our average cost per BTC would be around the 200-WMA, and the BTC price tends to spend an overwhelming majority of its time at least 25% higher than the 200-WMA.. even though I understand the idea that being in profits is not guaranteed, even in bitcoin and even if we do everything correct.
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I think the key is to be adaptable and know your financial situation. The overaccumulation stage is a good time to sell, but not everyone has the luxury of a perfect world.
Huh? Your goal is to reach overaccumulation status and then sell? You are going to convert yourself into a low coiner or a no coiner after you might have had spent 10 years or more building up your bitcoin holdings?
A person could hold onto Bitcoin for a long time. discipline themselves but not reach this point. due to low income or other commitments.
I agree that it would take a person who is investing into bitcoin at less than 5% of his income longer to reach overaccumulation status as compared with a guy who is investing 10%.
And even the person ONLY investing 10% of his income into bitcoin will take longer than the person who is investing 20% of his income into bitcoin.
So, sure, guys have to temper their expectations and their timeline based on their circumstances, and also based on their ability to be consistent, and to avoid screwing up too much in their investment and/or their cashflow management practices.
If they need to sell some of their investment for an important reason. I would not consider that as trading.
it is not necessarily trading (especially if they are selling out of need rather than based on an expectation to buy back cheaper), but engaging in such selling surely could set them back in their bitcoin stack building process.
Trading normally includes short-term price actions and continuous buying and selling,
I would think that trading is selling with an expectation to buy back cheaper.
while long-term investors selling for a good reason are simply making their financial decisions. It should be about sustainability, not dogmatism.
You are correct that there are circumstances in which guys might have to sell some or all of their bitcoin, whether they could have had prevented (or at least mitigated) such a situation or not.
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that there is always an objective that leads people into Bitcoin, be it to make a return, to hedge against inflation, or to secure their retirement. A target provides discipline, but I also have a feeling that concentrating on price can be emotional. People tend to panic if the market is down or be more greedy if price is up. The key is to plan ahead of the situation. I think it's better to be consistent rather than try to time the market.
Drip feeding/averaging down is generally more effective than trying to time the market.What about DCA? Why do you consider that there is any preference in buying on the way down rather than just regular buying? For sure, the newer a person is to bitcoin, then presumptively the less bitcoin that they have, and it tends to take a long time to build up a bitcoin holdings, except perhaps for folks who are able to draw from other resources that they might have and to be able to front load their investment.. otherwise an overwhelming majority of folks are likely going to need 1-2 cycles to just start to get to a point of building a relatively decent bitcoin stack, even if they might have had been able to buy bitcoin every week.. so it seems a bit problematic for an overwhelming quantity of normies to be waiting for BTC price dips that might not end up happening... which causes DCA or some variation of ongoing buying to be a way better practice rather than fucking around with dips that might not end up happening.
