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Author Topic: Everything you wanted to know about ES Volcano Bond and were afraid to ask!  (Read 1573 times)
Lucius
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March 05, 2022, 11:30:17 AM
Merited by fillippone (3)
 #41

Everything you say is undoubtedly true, but it seems to me that the damage will be even greater due to the political decision not to condemn the aggression that will undoubtedly gain weight when war crimes charges are filed, because there are clear elements of ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity. I personally would not do business with anyone who supports such a policy, and I was surprised that Bukele is much closer to various dictatorial regimes than to some Western democracy, no matter how imperfect it may be.

However, I have no doubt that there will always be those who only care about profit and do not care about the political background. The guys from Wall Street have found an opportunity even where for many it seems that the risk is simply too great.

As the U.S. and allies tighten sanctions on Russia and choke off investor demand for its assets, parts of Wall Street are jumping on the buying opportunity that it’s creating.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. have been purchasing beaten-down company bonds tied to Russia in recent days, as hedge funds that specialize in buying cheap credit look to load up on the assets, according to people with knowledge of the private transactions. Goldman Sachs is primarily asking for corporate debt from the likes of Evraz Plc, Gazprom PJSC and Russian Railways that matures within the next two years, and has made bids for Russian sovereign notes, the people said.

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March 06, 2022, 02:13:55 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #42


However, I have no doubt that there will always be those who only care about profit and do not care about the political background. The guys from Wall Street have found an opportunity even where for many it seems that the risk is simply too great.

Distressed bond buying it is something that has ever existed. The bank buys low values bonds in the case the political situation evolves for the good.
Just remember that they are not buying those assets from the issuer, but probs lo from pensions funds, asset managers or other subjects that are not allowed to hold junk bonds.
In a sene, they are not benefiting Russian finance in any way.

The fact that they are going to profit from these situation is far from clear, given the unprecedented thoughtness of imposed sanctions.

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March 08, 2022, 12:01:40 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #43

Exploring the involvement of the guys from Tether in the Lugano project, I came across an interesting article that reveals a lot of interesting details about how the idea of Volcano Bonds came about and who are the people who have their fingers in it. Despite the many details found in the OP, it seems to me that this article is full of very interesting things that are supported by links to original sources.

El Salvador Bitcoin: Tether buys itself a country; and why Chivo sucks

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March 11, 2022, 05:31:18 PM
Last edit: May 15, 2023, 01:41:44 PM by fillippone
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #44

As expected, we have confirmations on bond launch:



Bullish.
Markets are in turmoil right now, so bit the bet moment for a bond launch. I guess they know something we don’t.


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March 13, 2022, 01:13:01 AM
Merited by fillippone (3)
 #45

As expected, we have confirmations on bond launch:



Bullish.
Markets are in turmoil right now, so bit the bet moment for a bond launch. I guess they know something we don’t.

Since many of us who participate in this forum are bullish about long-term bitcoin fundamentals - or at least many of the regulars here.. cannot presume everyone is bullish about long term bitcoin fundamentals...   I doubt that anyone really knows anything more than a lot of us regulars here - except for sure they may be grappling with a lot of great advisors.. but that still would not necessarily mean that they are going to act on whatever information in front of them in ways that end up being correct.

Whether Bukeile has surrounded himself with bitcoin geniuses or not, even for a relative bitcoin newbie he has seemed to have locked into a decent number of the people who many of us trust within bitcoin maximalism circles (hate to label the bitcoin insiders in such a way because we have our own minds and even disagreements within bitcoin maximalism)..

I guess my main point is just to argue that no own really knows what is going to happen with bitcoin price dynamics, even though many of us bitcoin maxis do likely continue to believe that it does not necessarily hurt matters to be able to double down on investing when BTC prices are down - even though it is also likely that some folks who were going to be investors into such bond might be more timid during these kinds of times to be investing in such a thing.

No guarantees.. but seeming to be a 45%-ish discount compared to where BTC prices were in November.. and like Michael Saylor had said after the May 2021 correction down from $64,895 to $28,600-ish..  (maybe Saylor said it a bit hyperbolically?)  "we were going to buy anyhow, so we were glad to get some bitcoin in the mid-$30ks when they had been upper $50ks a month or so earlier -  either way we were buying, so it was nice to get them cheaper."

1) Self-Custody is a right.  There is no such thing as "non-custodial" or "un-hosted."  2) ESG, KYC & AML are attack-vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.  3) How much alt (shit)coin diversification is necessary? if you are into Bitcoin, then 0%......if you cannot control your gambling, then perhaps limit your alt(shit)coin exposure to less than 10% of your bitcoin size...Put BTC here: bc1q49wt0ddnj07wzzp6z7affw9ven7fztyhevqu9k
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March 13, 2022, 03:43:07 AM
 #46

Do you guys remember how Bitcoin was breaking down a couple weeks prior to the Elon musk Tesla Bitcoin buy announcement? Even though they bought over $1B worth the price still kept going down. It only rallied afterwards because it was announced.

So since we are in a down trend, even if they buy $500M on the open market the price will still most likely trade sideways or go down if there is enough sell pressure. These days 1/2 a $1B isn’t as impossible as it seemed a few years ago, Bitcoin is very liquid now.

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March 20, 2022, 02:26:05 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #47

So, at last Volcano bond got delayed, according to Coindesk:


El Salvador’s Bitcoin Bond Issuance Apparently Delayed


They give a few possible reasons, in the article, but I think the main one is the fact that ES congress still has some work to do to implement the legislative framework.

Also the turmoil in the financial markets it’s not helping the cause, even if it think in this particular bond it is not playing a huge effect given the fact is will be mainly addressing the retail market, which is less sensitive to this events.

A little bit worrying is that the issue won’t be from the Government, but from the State Own Energy company “La Gèo”. This is adding an even higher degree of credit worry to the bond holder. Without a premium in term of yield, apparently.

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March 22, 2022, 10:37:45 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #48

It is now official, as reported by Reuters:

El Salvador postpones bitcoin bond issue, expects better conditions

Quote
The launch could be postponed until September as bitcoin has swooned since hitting a record high above $67,500 in early November. It lost almost half its value by Jan. 22, and traded at $42,609 on Tuesday, according to Refinitiv Eikon data.

Market Volatility, but more importantly, an incomplete legal framework would have made the bond launch impossible.
Bear in mind this issue is something the whole world was going to look at, so that the process would have meant to be smoothless.

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March 24, 2022, 09:32:45 AM
Merited by fillippone (3), JayJuanGee (1)
 #49

It is now official, as reported by Reuters:

El Salvador postpones bitcoin bond issue, expects better conditions

Quote
The launch could be postponed until September as bitcoin has swooned since hitting a record high above $67,500 in early November. It lost almost half its value by Jan. 22, and traded at $42,609 on Tuesday, according to Refinitiv Eikon data.

Market Volatility, but more importantly, an incomplete legal framework would have made the bond launch impossible.
Bear in mind this issue is something the whole world was going to look at, so that the process would have meant to be smoothless.

Yeah the earlier date was around 20thMarch but now they have postponed the issue date giving no clarity on it when they are going to release them.This was much anticipated thing around the globe because $1 billion for building bitcoin city would be great but there might not be proper set-up for this at the moment.

Quote
Zelaya told bondholders earlier this month that the bitcoin bonds will now be backed by La Geo, a state-owned thermal company, according to Nathalie Marshik, head of emerging markets sovereign research at Stifel Financial

They have also said the war has also impacted the bond issuance date and volatility could be another blow to it at the time but they have confirmed that it will be go on through Bitfinex as per reports:



Blockstream is going to provide bonds issuance on bitcoin layer 2 but the problem is also that they are in no direct contact with El Salvador government on this matter where the lag could be possible which has hinder the smooth functioning of this.But as we see there are possibilities but at the time it's postponed.

Source

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March 24, 2022, 09:55:53 AM
 #50

I have a bad feeling about this.
As I said I think all these are “excuses” for something more substantial. Lack of legislation could be a massive hurdle to fix, even for a “vast support majority” like El Salvador.
Time will tell.

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March 31, 2022, 09:30:46 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #51

This week a lot of announcements, or announcements of announcement, about the Volcano Bond.

The BTC Times reorganized many of those for your convenience:
 
El Salvador's Big Week: Influential Bitcoiners Talk Bonds and Volcanos

Quote
This last week, El Salvador has hosted a handful of well-known, influential Bitcoiners. Their presence was made publicly known through a series of tweets including pictures and videos regarding El Salvador's bonds, volcano Bitcoin mining site, and more.

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April 15, 2022, 03:39:42 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #52

Bitcoin Italia podcast made a nice interview with Samson Mow.

They discussed a lot of the Bitcoin Bonds.

  • They were delayed primarily by the lack of legislation. Legislation was delayed because of ES need a new pension law first, then the crime emergency led to other delays
  • They are going to be issued  by El Salvador, not by “La Geo”. This is a new announcements.
  • The situation is quite fluid.

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April 20, 2022, 07:57:04 AM
Last edit: April 23, 2022, 09:14:25 AM by Agbe
 #53







In the Bitcoin City and Bond President Nayib Bukele really plan everything easy and simple for his citizens. He does not want hardship in the city. It is an egalitarian society where everyone has equal distribution of wealth. Everything is well planned. All the social amenities are provided, such as:  Restaurant, Hospital, Education, Electricity, Infrastructure, And Housing. All these are provided by the government for the citizens to use and pay only tax with Bitcoin. What a wonderful city plan. The MODEL of the City is the most number one developed city in the world. If I wish this come to the reality. The volcano is making the city more attractive and beautiful.

El Salvador adoption of bitcoin is encouraging. But the delay of the bond is worrisome.

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April 20, 2022, 02:54:07 PM
Merited by hugeblack (3), fillippone (3)
 #54

He does not want hardship in the city. It is an egalitarian society where everyone has equal distribution of wealth. Everything is well planned.

Egalitarian society, lol!
This is just some bullshit leftist propaganda, bitcoin has nothing to do with your dystopian commie future, bitcoin is actually the essence of capitalism, the ones with the capital are the ones affording to buy coins, the ones that want to take other person's wealth and redistribute it can't do it because my keys my coins my decision.

What a wonderful city plan. The MODEL of the City is the most number one developed city in the world. If I wish this come to the reality. The volcano is making the city more attractive and beautiful.

What plan?
Have you ever seen something beyond some colored squares on a map?
He doesn't have the money to build that city, the bonds will cover only 7% of the cost of the plane which of course will be double as this happens every single time, this is just a way to finance his growing debt and buy time, nothing else.
Go to skyscrapercity and see what people there have to say about such "plans".

I have a bad feeling about this.

Everything is according to plan. Wink
They are just finishing the numbers to see how many years in prison they will get for this and if it's worth it, they will go ahead.






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April 22, 2022, 06:14:55 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), Wiwo (1)
 #55


What plan?



The city plan and it features. Yes he might not have the money to carry out the project because the bond can provide only 7% of the total cost but from what he has done by sketching out the model of the Bitcoin City to that magnitude, it is good enough to be praised. That means if the money finally enter his hands, he will start the project by building the city as it is planned.
How many president has such plan or model in their Countries? Accourding to a saying, " out of the abundance, the mouth speaketh". Nayib Bukele  has the real plan of the Country's development that is why he spoke out.


Everything is according to plan. Wink


Yes, that is why I said the plan Nayib Bukele about the city is nice because everything is done or come out accourding to a plan work. I know that the city is an imaginative mindset but it has planted in his heart to do it one day.

The first plan and the second plan have different connotations. The first quoted plan is the model of the city while the second quoted plan is the activities.

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April 22, 2022, 03:56:24 PM
Last edit: April 27, 2022, 09:25:23 PM by Zlantann
Merited by fillippone (2)
 #56

Bitcoin Italia podcast made a nice interview with Samson Mow.

They discussed a lot of the Bitcoin Bonds.

  • They were delayed primarily by the lack of legislation. Legislation was delayed because of ES need a new pension law first, then the crime emergency led to other delays
  • They are going to be issued  by El Salvador, not by “La Geo”. This is a new announcements.
  • The situation is quite fluid.

The bitcoin community should be concerned about El Salvador because this nation is Bitcoin's ambassador. Issues like crime emergencies and global economic challenges might be unforseen, but not backing a policy with the necessary parliamentary legislation before announcement is a great blunder.  El Salvador should be careful about it's pronouncements on Bitcoin policies and projects. This is because delays or failures of these projects would deter other nations from adoption. We commend President Bekele for all his efforts but proposed policies must be consistent with legislation before announcement.

Samson Mow's clarification that the bond would be issued by El Salvador  would increase the degree of confidence of bond holders. Mow also stated that the government can improve the acceptance of bitcoin by paying salaries with it.

For me  the Bitcoin city doesn't thrill me, except this project has more economic benefit to El Salvador. I have not been to El Salvador but Pierce indicated that it is underdeveloped and has high rate of illiteracy. Instead of spending this money on a flamboyant bitcoin city, it could be channelled to education. This is because education is a veritable tool for the spread of the gospel of bitcoin.

Brock Pierce retreated that politicians cannot be trusted. But bitcoin is above politics because it has the capacity to free the world from the manipulations of politician.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eP0jAbIYmV0

Fillippone please don't stop posting these interviews.

R


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April 22, 2022, 04:44:22 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #57


The bitcoin community should be concerned about El Salvador because this nation is Bitcoin's ambassador.

I cnnot agree with this one.
El Salvador embraced Bitcoin, but you cannot infer the quality of Bitcoin from El Salvador success. The other way round might work: you can guess El Salvador will benefit from Bitcoin success.

Ultimately Bitcoin doesn't need El Salvador, while El Salvador needs Bitcoin!

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April 22, 2022, 05:41:22 PM
Merited by fillippone (1)
 #58


The bitcoin community should be concerned about El Salvador because this nation is Bitcoin's ambassador.

I cnnot agree with this one.
El Salvador embraced Bitcoin, but you cannot infer the quality of Bitcoin from El Salvador success. The other way round might work: you can guess El Salvador will benefit from Bitcoin success.

Ultimately Bitcoin doesn't need El Salvador, while El Salvador needs Bitcoin!
Thank you for the correction. But the point I was portraying was that since El Salvador is the first country to make Bitcoin a legal tender all eyes are on them. Anti Bitcoin politicians and economists would always use El Salvador as a reference point. If Bitcoin policies are not well formulated and implemented and it affects the economy negatively, these enemies of Bitcoin would always point at the woes of El Salvador to discourage thier country from adoption.

Like you rightly pointed out: Bitcoin is above any nation and it's here to help.

Thank you.

R


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April 22, 2022, 10:54:18 PM
 #59

Anti Bitcoin politicians and economists would always use El Salvador as a reference point.

This is correct: as Samson Mow once said in one of his interviews: "the world is watching us, we cannot fail this experiment!". This means every anti bitcoin politician around the world will take every glitch in the El Salvador implementation of the Bitcoin Law as a failure of Bitcoin itself.

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April 25, 2022, 06:29:16 PM
Last edit: April 25, 2022, 06:44:04 PM by JayJuanGee
Merited by fillippone (6), Zlantann (1)
 #60

Bitcoin Italia podcast made a nice interview with Samson Mow.

They discussed a lot of the Bitcoin Bonds.

  • They were delayed primarily by the lack of legislation. Legislation was delayed because of ES need a new pension law first, then the crime emergency led to other delays
  • They are going to be issued  by El Salvador, not by “La Geo”. This is a new announcements.
  • The situation is quite fluid.

The bitcoin community should be concerned about El Salvador because this nation is Bitcoin's ambassador.

Surely, you seem to be exaggerating.. El Savador is Bitcoin's ambassador?  I can understand that there is some symbolic aspects in regards to El Salvador taking on some pretty heavy mantle in some of its bitcoin related projects including but not limited to the actually successfully implementing Bitcoin as legal tender and then aspects of the Volcano bond that they have not yet issued, but considering ways that they would use the  funds raised through the Volcano bond money.

Issues like crime emergencies and global economic challenges might be unforseen, but not backing a policy with the necessary parliamentary legislation before announcement is a great blunder.  

Again, you seem to be exaggerating.  it seems that El Salvador has delayed its volcano bond issuance for possibly more reasons than mere lack of legislation.. even though the lack of legislation could be a kind of part of the way of explaining why they are delaying in their issuance.  

Also, I doubt that there is any "do or die" here, whether we are referring to if the Volcano bond actually ends up issuing as it had been originally proposed or if other aspects of El Salvador's legal tender implementation starts to fall apart in various ways.  In some ways, we likely can already consider El Salvador to have some levels of success in terms of what has been accomplished so far in terms of showing some possible paths forward with bitcoin and also attracting quite a bit of attention to the bitcoin matter... so still a work in progress to watch how some of the details (including ups and downs) are continuing to unravel.

El Salvador should be careful about it's pronouncements on Bitcoin policies and projects. This is because delays or failures of these projects would deter other nations from adoption.

You believe that is how the world works?  Sounds a little crazy to me that you seem to be hinging on some kind of projection that El Salvador has to achieve some level of perfection, otherwise nations are going to be scared to get involved in bitcoin.  Surely, every single year in bitcoin, we have greater and greater levels of knowledge regarding bitcoin spreading to all kinds of people in the world, whether politicians or other folks in society - and even ongoing growth of bitcoin's financialization, and so in that regard, there are likely going to continue be folks considering ways that bitcoin might be adopted or ways that spheres of their influence (whether on a company level, personal level, or even governmental level) might start to employ aspects of bitcoin within their balance sheet or how they operate.

You presumption of do or die is coming off as weak, and sure some countries are going to be scared and/or hesitant regarding whether to implement bitcoin and in what ways to attempt to do it, too.

We commend President Bekele for all his efforts but proposed policies must be consistent with legislation before announcement.

First, you are employing the royal we?  or you are trying to project some kind of authority in this matter?

Second, I doubt that there is any kind of order that things need to be done, even if you might be correct that some approaches might have potential to be more effective than others.

Samson Mow's clarification that the bond would be issued by El Salvador  would increase the degree of confidence of bond holders. Mow also stated that the government can improve the acceptance of bitcoin by paying salaries with it.

Of course, there is nothing wrong with those points, and for sure, if El Salvador gets to actual issuance of the bond, and is able to raise the $1 billion as projected within the bond, then surely more innovations (and possible experimentations) could result from that.. and just the possible issuance of the bond has a lot of innovations within itself - even if the other innovative subsequent approaches do not end up getting employed.

For me  the Bitcoin city doesn't thrill me, except this project has more economic benefit to El Salvador.

Surely whether such bitcoin city is reasonable/feasible is going to be something that we will find out, in the event that matters continue to progress - and of course, there is likely some kind of a need to outline a potentially reasonable/feasible vision in order to inspire investors.

I have not been to El Salvador but Pierce indicated that it is underdeveloped and has high rate of illiteracy.

Oh gawd.. Brock Pierce as our supposed El Salvador expert?  Even Brock (that dweeb) is humble enough to admit that he does not know much about El Salvador (he does it in that interview that you wrongly cited below.. here is the proper cite)

Instead of spending this money on a flamboyant bitcoin city, it could be channelled to education.

Now you are a bond issuing expert?  What makes you believe that El Salvador would necessarily be limited to ONLY issuing one bond (that is if they are able to get the first one issued)?  Education is priority one in El Salvador.. Ok..

This is because education is a veritable tool for the spread of the gospel of bitcoin.

I am sure that there are a variety of ways that progress towards "education" can be made... but no, you want to tell us that you have the answers about how to accomplish the matter?

Brock Pierce retreated that politicians cannot be trusted. But bitcoin is above politics because it has the capacity to free the world from the manipulations of politician. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5392417.new#new

Fillippone please don't stop posting these interviews.

Of course, there is some truth in terms of bitcoin being more neutral than politicians, and of course, politicians are people, so some people have more integrity than others, and of course, we already know that bitcoin does have a lot more objectivity in it.. at least in terms of being very difficult to change (perhaps not impossible, but surely difficult as we have also witnessed several times and the 2017 forkening matter is often used as an example where very powerful businesses had failed to change bitcoin in certain kinds of ways including governance and software related to block size limits).

Anti Bitcoin politicians and economists would always use El Salvador as a reference point.

This is correct: as Samson Mow once said in one of his interviews: "the world is watching us, we cannot fail this experiment!". This means every anti bitcoin politician around the world will take every glitch in the El Salvador implementation of the Bitcoin Law as a failure of Bitcoin itself.

I agree with your overall point, fillippone, but I think that it is worth reiterating (of course, you said it earlier) that bitcoin is likely to succeed whether or not El Salvador succeeds with bitcoin as part of its package of offerings.

Of course, there is some truth in the matter that there is going to be spinning going on from politicians, financial institutions, status quo rich, and both anti-bitcoin and pro-bitcoin too.  And bitcoin's adoption does have a kind of ongoing battle that is going on simultaneously in a lot of geographical places.. not just in and around El Salvador's way of adopting it, so far.   

Some of the ongoing battles are going to be out in the open and other battles seem to be happening behind the scenes.. and with any battles, they have informational and physical components... Some of the informational components can end up scaring the shit out of newbie normies (and they get confused as fuck in terms of not even knowing what is bitcoin, or what is the difference between bitcoin and shitcoins or whatever other ways that the bitcoin topic is obfuscated), and surely physical components (such as bitcoin's ongoing adoption) are not going to NOT be affected by some of the ongoing informational battle angles (pro-bitcoin information and anti-bitcoin information).  

For sure, each of us has to choose our own level of involvement in bitcoin whether we are buying it, accumulating it or HODLing it, and how much of our value that we feel psychologically and financially comfortable to allocate into bitcoin (time as well as money too) or whether we might consider it to be prudent to reallocate or to otherwise change our approach towards bitcoin investing of time, psychology and based on changed circumstances or changes in our perceptions of the circumstances.

1) Self-Custody is a right.  There is no such thing as "non-custodial" or "un-hosted."  2) ESG, KYC & AML are attack-vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.  3) How much alt (shit)coin diversification is necessary? if you are into Bitcoin, then 0%......if you cannot control your gambling, then perhaps limit your alt(shit)coin exposure to less than 10% of your bitcoin size...Put BTC here: bc1q49wt0ddnj07wzzp6z7affw9ven7fztyhevqu9k
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