How far is bitcoin from full adoption (100% mass adoption)?

[JaanusRaim]

 Please answer, how do you feel about it...

[1715286847]

1715286847

[palle11]

I think I can pick 10% rate of adoption so far. For now just few countries have made full move to adoption and also few institutions have allowed for bitcoin in their platform. Until a reasonable amount of countries starts proper adoption, hopefully from next halving.

[hatshepsut93]

What do you mean by "100% mass adoption"? When all people in the world switch to Bitcoin? Then it would just be "share of global population that uses Bitcoin". Or is it percentage of some theoretical maximum of Bitcoin adoption? And what do you mean by adoption? Does it mean owning any amount of Bitcoin? Or does it only count if you regularly use it as a currency?

[fiulpro]

How far is the world from getting rid of poverty?
Of everyone owning a smartphone?
Of everyone having internet access and access to basic needs ?
Of everyone having small technical knowledge to buy/sell/trade cryptocurrencies?
Of the whole population not being limited by the government or something else??
This is how far the bitcoins is from the mass adoption. It's not so easy and therefore at the end of the day I do believe that we should look at the bigger picture and not just look at what bitcoins is for us! Some people might not even know about it yet. It's a complicated matter.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

What do you mean by "100% mass adoption"?

I'm not even sure what the term adoption means, much less 100%.  Does adoption mean someone is using bitcoin as a substitute for fiat?  Does it mean they're using it as an investment?  Is it that they just own some for whatever reason?

People are generally not using bitcoin to buy things with, though there are certainly a small number of them doing so.  And I don't think bitcoin is ever going to get to a point where it starts to replace fiat currencies unless something seriously goes wrong with every single fiat currency in the world such that they become worthless.  That could happen to a handful of them simultaneously, but it's doubtful it'll happen globally.  So I'm comfortable ruling that out entirely.

If mass adoption means most people own bitcoin and hold it as an investment (or use it to buy things), I'm guessing the number is somewhere between 1-5%, maybe more.  Most people I know IRL are aware of bitcoin but don't own any, so an estimate of 5/100 people owning it sounds about right to me.  It's hard to tell, because bitcoin doesn't come up in conversation a lot (for me), plus people don't tend to advertise the fact that they own it, so it's difficult to estimate.

The bottom line though is that we're still nowhere near mass adoption, no matter how you define that term.

[yayayo]

The bottom line though is that we're still nowhere near mass adoption, no matter how you define that term.

I would like to agree on that. Especially that OP even stated full adoption. There have been a huge progress on the acknowledgement and familiarity of people with bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, in general, but its full adoption is yet to be determined unless all people in the world are actually engaging with such, and that means that it is also fully integrated in our societal systems as well.

ya.ya.yo!

[so98nn]

The adoption is far from happening since everyone is used to credit card and debit cards these days. Even with the new payment wayouts are taking away the cards! The wallets, UPI, Cardless cash and what not, all kinds of and forms of payments available throughout the world so it’s like even the paper money and physical cards are disappearing these days (rhetorical) and I think bitcoin and it’s complex nature of using it in the real world will keep it down the market.

Bitcoin is yet to be understood by many peeps around the world so I don’t think it’s so called adoption is happening at any good pace?! Let’s just pray it does not become another asset to trade and earn money through its long and hard journey. Then we will talk about it’s mass adoption.

[wxa7115]

Please answer, how do you feel about it...

To begin with I think we are never going to see 100% of the people around the world using bitcoin for several reasons, the first and most important is that in order to use bitcoin you need access to electricity, the Internet and a computer or smartphone, and while these are requisites very easy to clear for some of us, things are not so simple in poor countries.

However I remember reading articles that speculate that we are close to 2% of the world population holding or using bitcoin, and while this may seem low, if it is true that means there are 140 million people using bitcoin, which is way more people than most fiat currencies around the world.

[Kakmakr]

I think a very high percentage of people have heard about Bitcoin (possibly above 40%) ...but the transition to adoption is not that easy. There are a lot of negative publicity about Bitcoin and a lot of enemies that are spreading FUD about Bitcoin, so people are very wary to adopt it.

The Technophobia also kick in when people are faced with new complex technologies, so I think that also adds to the slower adoption statistics. It will take time, so people should not expect miracles this early in the game. 

[hugeblack]

Adoption is a function that changes with time and the speed of change represents the percentage of adoption globally. For example, the percentage of adoption of electric cars may have increased, although sales of regular cars are still higher, but if it continues at the same rate, changes will occur in a short period.

We can compare the adoption of bitcoin as the internet did in 1997 and we'll notice that adoption was faster for reasons like infrastructure, which we'll compare to things like Google, Netflix, Apple, and Tesla.

So based on the charts above, the adoption rate should not be 100% to say that Bitcoin adoption is on the rise.

Note that adoption rates in Africa are still very low.

[BIT-BENDER]

Although I think that no one can get the real percentage of those who has adopted bitcoin around the world now, their are many people who has adopted bitcoin and are very secret about it, and their are those who talks about it but really hasn't adopted it, but if I am tentatively forced to give my percentage of adoption of Bitcoin around the world I would say Less than 30% although this number are rising and fast.

[aoluain]

100% mass adoption? my mind is racing with what to say....

Generally people are lazy, they take what is given to them and will continue
with FIAT as long as its convenient. Generally people are not financially
literate so they dont understand the finer details of inflation so its only
the minority who will buy Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation so there are
some points as to why there will be no 100% adoption.

Another point, at the rate that some wealthy people and other Bitcoiners are buying
Bitcoin there isnt going to be a chance that everyone will be able to own it.

[AmoreJaz]

Although I think that no one can get the real percentage of those who has adopted bitcoin around the world now, their are many people who has adopted bitcoin and are very secret about it, and their are those who talks about it but really hasn't adopted it, but if I am tentatively forced to give my percentage of adoption of Bitcoin around the world I would say Less than 30% although this number are rising and fast.

but comparing those crypto users to the global population, i believe we are still small in number. more than likely, a lot in the countryside or seemingly remote areas, may not have even heard about bitcoin. so going to full adoption, i dont think we will see that in our lifetime. it may increase day by day, but still a lot of these crypto users are still tied up with their fiat banking system.
i think, we just need to accept that crypto market can just co-exist with the traditional fiat system.

one can look at these data presented by chainalysis based on this article , and see for yourself where we are now in terms of global adoption

[Darker45]

I voted for 2% and that's even a generous assessment of things observable. The truth of the matter is that despite the news about Bitcoin spreading around social media and other online platforms, when you go out of your house and talk to the people on the streets, in stores, restaurants, whatever shops, and so on, people don't know a thing about Bitcoin.

They may tell you that they might have heard or read or stumbled upon Bitcoin somewhere but they don't know what it is. We're still far from hitting mass adoption.

[yhiaali3]

According to what I see in social media and websites and also here in the local community, I think that Bitcoin has so far achieved about 20% of the spread, but the basic idea is that mass adoption is not just about knowledge about Bitcoin, this is not enough, there must be an adoption of the concept The real Bitcoin, I mean the idea of decentralization and maintaining privacy and financial freedom, unless these things are achieved on the ground, we cannot say that we are a fortress on the mass adoption of Bitcoin, based on the extent to which these things are achieved on the ground, I see that the ratio does not exceed 1%.

[Kemarit]

According to what I see in social media and websites and also here in the local community, I think that Bitcoin has so far achieved about 20% of the spread, but the basic idea is that mass adoption is not just about knowledge about Bitcoin, this is not enough, there must be an adoption of the concept The real Bitcoin, I mean the idea of decentralization and maintaining privacy and financial freedom, unless these things are achieved on the ground, we cannot say that we are a fortress on the mass adoption of Bitcoin, based on the extent to which these things are achieved on the ground, I see that the ratio does not exceed 1%.

I would like to tend to agree, however, it's really hard to gauge as to where we really at. Maybe 20% is a big numbers already and it might takes years to really achieved a good percentage of "mass adoption".

So I guess it will be a case to case basis, some countries might have a higher percentage than others. Personally here in our country, I would say around that ball park number as well. But I can sense that there are still a lot of room to grow here in Asia.

[traderethereum]

I voted between 5%-10%
But unfortunately, the options are not there, so I will vote 10%.
It is still far away from the full adoption of bitcoin as many countries do not accept bitcoin or let their people use it, so it needs more time to see the adoption grow.
But this year, the adoption can grow faster than the previous years as many countries have a better internet connection that lets their people see the crypto or bitcoin ads in many sources.
If that can happen more or grow in the next year and the next trend can get people's attention, I am sure that will help the adoption process will also increase.

[cabron]

There is still a huge population in every country that doesn't even know how to how to use the internet but only facebook. Operating crypto wallets will be a big step unless countries give away $30 each for installing thier centralized app.

The adoption is gradual just like the Internet back in 1997, it rapidly grow in 2002. Today I could say, mass adoption of cryptocurrency is almost like how the internet in 2003 where internet cafes are multiplying in towns. 10% likely? Web3 here we go.

[Wexnident]

If you were to define adoption to being used by most people as a medium, just like how usd or rather any fiat out there is, then it'd be highly difficult to actually give an accurate answer. After all, that requires you to gather info about it in the WHOLE world, not to mention that adoption isn't as simple as 1 + 1 imo. Though it is pretty much sure that we're still far off from being adopted to the point just like how fiat is, questions that require accuracy though are on a whole different matter imo.

Besides, if we were to consider how Bitcoin is more of a self bank, a lot of people would shy away from it since they much prefer centralization to it.

[SquallLeonhart]

what do you mean by adoption? Does it mean owning any amount of Bitcoin? Or does it only count if you regularly use it as a currency?

What is the difference between owning some bitcoin and using it as a currency (regularly or not)? Basically in my understanding if you involve into bitcoin ecosystem and even you do not hold or use bitcoin for your day to day life then I assume you have adopted bitcoin. For example, you are working in crypto related job and you are getting paid in bitcoin but you encash your salary every month still I assume you adopted bitcoin. Or if you work for a bitcoin mining company but they pay you in fiats still I assume you adopted bitcoin.

For 100% adoption, we need to educate the world population first and then provide them electricity and smartphone hence I do not think even 80% adoption against world population will not be possible in next 100 years.