This is the closest to an attempt at a refutation of this data that I have seen in this thread, and it's largely speculative, much like the original post in this thread.
Speculative?
The blockchain data doesn't lie, the only speculation is the amount of usage is needed for a person to be called a user.
On the other hand, the 200 million numbers come only from speculation and random percentages.
I think it's fair to argue that a user can be someone who does a minor transaction on the blockchain - that is usage, actually, sheesh - as well as people who buy bitcoin on a centralized exchange and leave it on the exchange. After all, a primary use case of bitcoin is as uncensorable digital gold - and this can be utilized even on a centralized exchange that custodies the bitcoin (with the risks of this type of custody provided to customers).
Then use the term owners and not users.
Because there is a difference between owning a car and driving a car.
And in crypto the difference is far bigger since you can own 100 accounts and never send a transaction on-chain, that would the equivalent of somebody who has 100 cars and hasn't driven a mile in his life.
The same is true of financial institutions that hold the bitcoin for others. The same is true of custodians of gold: if I pay an institution to hold the gold for me in a vault, I am still technically making use of that gold. This is logic,
Making use of something means USING it, you're paying somebody to take care of it, that's not using at all by any logic in this world.
Also, bet there are more people wearing gold jewelry than poeple holding gold bonds.
Given that Coinbase is now under regulatory scrutiny, I tend to believe their claim of having at least 73 million verified accounts.
Verified users are not users that have activity and it does include users who have created an account to sell all their holdings.
Facebook has 3 billion users....lol!
You can do an experiment for your case, look at how many tx and how many transactions you have done in one year, look at the current quoted number of % owners in your country, and take the entire family or your co-workers, or your classmates or the poeple who you play games with and see if the percentage holds when including them all.
Remember that if we talk about 10% meanings that in every 4 gramps, 2 adult married couples, 4 kids family tree branch you must have at least one owner!!!Do you see that happening anywhere?
Let's be serious.
But the biggest flow of this is that you ignore one thing in the custodial scenario.
Since all these 200 million users that haven't left a trace on the chain would need to be added in the last year you would still need an activity for the coins to flow in the custodial wallets, as those bitcoins that these people bought must have come from somebody, they weren't produced as gold bonds, so the coins HAD to move from previous owners to custodial wallets, yet that huge activity is again now shown in the chain.
Unless...somebody is selling those all-users IOU vouchers and not real coins.