As far as I can tell, if a pool could test your miner by messing with transactions or other block data that would quickly hash to a "winning" nonce then I'm sure the bad miner could be made to notice such manipulated blocks (unless I'm missing something which seems to happen a lot lol). Perhaps by connecting to his own node to verify what the pool is sending him.
You probably won't notice, if your own pool can just send the work template for another miner. Of course, this isn't accurate by any means and would probably not be that ideal given how stratum and the mining software differs.
It would be far more likely for the assumptions to be made on the likelihood of a block being found given X shares.