Goldman Sachs projection regarding BTC

[LucasTerry]

Goldman Sachs forecasts a Bitcoin price of $100,000 and the potential of it eventually supplanting gold.

According to Goldman Sachs, Bitcoin may continue to supplant gold as a reserve of value asset and so reach $100,000 a unit. The bank thinks that the BTC is worth $700 billion on the open market. The overall market value of gold is $2.6 trillion.

What are the implications of this news? Is this a possibility?

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[pooya87]

What are the implications of this news? Is this a possibility?

The part you posted here doesn't have any kind of timeframe so it can not be assessed. For example if it is saying that $100k is the maximum price of bitcoin then it is a dumb statement that comes from someone (or rather corrupt banksters) who has no idea what bitcoin is. All they have to do is to look at the corruption in their own structure to realize $100k will be the start.

But expecting $100k this year and surpassing gold's market cap is a understandable target. It has no implications though, this is just another random speculation.

[Poker Player]

OP, you get rid of ban for plagiarism because you put it as quote but for next times you should put the source too. There are several:

Goldman Says Bitcoin $100,000 a Possibility by Taking on Gold

Bitcoin could pass $100,000 if it replaces gold as a store of value, says Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs says bitcoin will compete with gold as "store of value"

The part you posted here doesn't have any kind of timeframe so it can not be assessed.

It seems they are talking about 5 years (quote from the Fortune article):

Goldman estimates that Bitcoin’s float-adjusted market capitalization is just under $700 billion. That accounts for 20% share of the “store of value” market which it said is comprised of Bitcoin and gold. The value of gold that’s available for investment is estimated at $2.6 trillion.

If Bitcoin’s share of the store of value market were “hypothetically” to rise to 50% over the next five years, its price would increase to just over $100,000, for a compound annualized return of 17% or 18%, Zach Pandl, co-head of global FX and EM strategy, wrote in a note Tuesday.  

It has no implications though, this is just another random speculation.

Completely agree with this. It is a prediction like many others we have seen, not that Goldman Sachs has any particular credibility for me.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

OP, you get rid of ban for plagiarism because you put it as quote but for next times you should put the source too.

I wasn't even thinking of plagiarism in this case; after looking at the quote I just wanted to know where it came from, because I wasn't sure if I should believe GS made a prediction like that.

Bitcoin supplanting gold?  What does that even mean?  And I'm not talking about definitions, I'm wondering about how it would even be possible that bitcoin would essentially become a substitute for gold.  The comparisons between the two have been talked about for years, but they're two very different things that happen to share some similar characteristics.  Gold isn't ever going to be in danger of losing much value unless Elon Musk figures out a way to mine it on asteroids and thereby dilutes the supply.

So five years for bitcoin to reach $100k....not sure if that's going to happen or not.  Something tells me that the good times are going to be over by then (and I'm not talking about life in general; I'm talking about the bull market we've been in for over a decade), and interest rates will be higher, inflation will have eroded the value of the USD, and people will have become less inclined to speculate in risky assets.

But hey, I've been wrong many times before--especially when it comes to predicting economic conditions and the price of bitcoin.

[mk4]

Putting sources aside, price "predictions" or "projections" doesn't mean crap especially with something like bitcoin whereas the price is just mostly going to depend on demand(and not cashflows and such when talking about stocks).

Do research on bitcoin and decide for yourself if you're bullish on it or not. That way you have no one to blame in the end if you end up with the wrong decision.

[bbc.reporter]

OP, you get rid of ban for plagiarism because you put it as quote but for next times you should put the source too. There are several:

Goldman Says Bitcoin $100,000 a Possibility by Taking on Gold

Bitcoin could pass $100,000 if it replaces gold as a store of value, says Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs says bitcoin will compete with gold as "store of value"

I am beginning to be skeptical on bitcoin’s purpose as a store of value and as an hedge for inflation if the appointed policy makers in central banks can weaken both of those purposes through a simple change in policies that would limit leverage on the market. I would shake my head if everyone thought bitcoin would continue to pump if liquidity was removed as a policy change. Liquidity removal would imply limited leverage which would also imply the beginning of the bubble pop.

[Fundamentals Of]

There will be a number of implications from this. For one, the fact that the bullish prediction is coming from a giant banking company in the world means that Bitcoin's influence has already reached the doorsteps of traditional institutions like the banks. This is indicative of the growing strength of whatever idea Bitcoin is carrying. Which brings us to another implication, that is, the future of Bitcoin is indeed brighter.

Of course this is a possibility, and not just one of the possibilities. This is a possibility that may be seen to happen in the near future.

[mk4]

I am beginning to be skeptical on bitcoin’s purpose as a store of value and as an hedge for inflation if the appointed policy makers in central banks can weaken both of those purposes through a simple change in policies that would limit leverage on the market. I would shake my head if everyone thought bitcoin would continue to pump if liquidity was removed as a policy change. Liquidity removal would imply limited leverage which would also imply the beginning of the bubble pop.

A more accurate interpretation is that bitcoin could be a good inflation hedge in the future; not necessarily that it is right now. Bitcoin is still quite young in terms of adoption that the asset is still heavily heavily inefficient market-wise, hence the heavy volatility.

[btc_angela]

Goldman Sachs forecasts a Bitcoin price of $100,000 and the potential of it eventually supplanting gold.

According to Goldman Sachs, Bitcoin may continue to supplant gold as a reserve of value asset and so reach $100,000 a unit. The bank thinks that the BTC is worth $700 billion on the open market. The overall market value of gold is $2.6 trillion.

What are the implications of this news? Is this a possibility?

Implications? None, it might sway investors though and probably this is what G&S are trying to do here, influencing crypto and non crypto investors with their bold predictions.

Nevertheless, $100k is the next target for bitcoin, I mean it was supposedly predicted that we are going to go achieved it by the end of 2021, but unfortunately, lot of factors affected the price negatively in December. But it will just be a matter of time, maybe in the next bull run, we will able to get into the 6 digit price range.

[leea-1334]

People are getting way too confused over short, medium and long term. Yes Bitcoin is store of value, yes Bitcoin is always going to appreciate and yes Bitcoin also a hedge for inflation,,, but this is long term.

Volatility in short term is a fact we cannot deny, but that does not mean Bitcoin is broken

[TravelMug]

People are getting way too confused over short, medium and long term. Yes Bitcoin is store of value, yes Bitcoin is always going to appreciate and yes Bitcoin also a hedge for inflation,,, but this is long term.

For sure many knows the difference between the two, it's that the investors or speculators also look for short term or at least the highest price that they want, at least in this case a 6 digit figure.

Volatility in short term is a fact we cannot deny, but that does not mean Bitcoin is broken

True, we might as well embrace volatility because it's part of the market cycle. I think crypto is just one market wherein volatility has been embrace because we can make money out of this price movement.

[SirLancelot]

Goldman Sachs forecasts a Bitcoin price of $100,000 and the potential of it eventually supplanting gold.

According to Goldman Sachs, Bitcoin may continue to supplant gold as a reserve of value asset and so reach $100,000 a unit. The bank thinks that the BTC is worth $700 billion on the open market. The overall market value of gold is $2.6 trillion.

What are the implications of this news? Is this a possibility?

This has been talked at length before. Goldman Sachs is bullish on bitcoin and that is what they are telling their investors and that is why in order to save face during the period where bitcoin is at the most vulnerable position they have to say things like this to keep it optimistic for their investors.

If you tell people that 2x is possible in the near future if they buy it, then they are going to listen to you, or at least some of them will listen to you, especially the ones that made profit with you before. So, this is not really a shocking news, they are not really saying 100k will happen, what they are really saying is it will be 100k so give us your money.

[bbc.reporter]

I am beginning to be skeptical on bitcoin’s purpose as a store of value and as an hedge for inflation if the appointed policy makers in central banks can weaken both of those purposes through a simple change in policies that would limit leverage on the market. I would shake my head if everyone thought bitcoin would continue to pump if liquidity was removed as a policy change. Liquidity removal would imply limited leverage which would also imply the beginning of the bubble pop.

A more accurate interpretation is that bitcoin could be a good inflation hedge in the future; not necessarily that it is right now. Bitcoin is still quite young in terms of adoption that the asset is still heavily heavily inefficient market-wise, hence the heavy volatility.

I would agree if in the future bitcoin market will be very disconnected from the traditional financial system that central bank policy changes would not put it at risk of dumping. However, it is very clear that it is not where bitcoin is going.

In any case, Goldman Sachs’ cousin hehehe, Morgan Stanley has a more realistic evaluation of the central banks’ policies, the cryptospace market and what might occur. There might be more investment banks that might release similar statements before June.



Low interest rates, expansion of central bank balance sheets, and government stimulus were all “drivers of exponential cryptocurrency price rises” in the last two years, Morgan Stanley said in a research note.

Leveraged crypto markets are now weakening as the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks look to slow their balance sheet expansion and prepare the markets for interest rate hikes, the bank’s head of cryptocurrency research, Sheena Shah, wrote in a report published last week.

Cryptocurrency’s usage as a payment vehicle/exchange of value is what should drive its valuation in the long run. However, the market has been trading most cryptocurrencies like speculative risk assets, as evidenced by the correlation between bitcoin and equity markets in the last six months, the report said.

Source https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/01/18/morgan-stanley-says-crypto-markets-are-weakening-as-central-banks-look-to-tighten/

[Obito]

People are getting way too confused over short, medium and long term. Yes Bitcoin is store of value, yes Bitcoin is always going to appreciate and yes Bitcoin also a hedge for inflation,,, but this is long term.

Volatility in short term is a fact we cannot deny, but that does not mean Bitcoin is broken

Just get used to people saying that kind of stuff because that's been the case for a long time since bitcoin has been in this market, people have been skeptic and they've been doubtful if not outright haters of bitcoin so you really can't do much about them doing this kinds of things, what you can do is just mind your own business and hold on to your bitcoins.

[leea-1334]

People are getting way too confused over short, medium and long term. Yes Bitcoin is store of value, yes Bitcoin is always going to appreciate and yes Bitcoin also a hedge for inflation,,, but this is long term.

For sure many knows the difference between the two, it's that the investors or speculators also look for short term or at least the highest price that they want, at least in this case a 6 digit figure.

Volatility in short term is a fact we cannot deny, but that does not mean Bitcoin is broken

True, we might as well embrace volatility because it's part of the market cycle. I think crypto is just one market wherein volatility has been embrace because we can make money out of this price movement.

And then when will it end? After 6 digits, people will go for 7, because everybody has to see progress and in Bitcoin, everything must happen at hyper light speed right?

And then we love the volatility,,, until we lose money, then it becomes a bad thing. I only know Bitcoin for a few years but the pattern of behavior is so easy to see!

[STT]

Supplanting gold is nonsense, modern alchemy about as likely as any previous attempt at reinvention of a base element.   Gold is distinct and quite separate to anything else certainly a non physical entity such as BTC no matter how tradable this might become its not in competition with gold to begin with no more then any asset opposes another.

I dont mind the price target, BTC remains quite capable of large price gains longer term.   At this moment I see it launching off the 12hr average, passing the sedate 2 day also and quite possibly able to target 46k weekly above just like that out of nowhere I think its possible (beating the 17th's price action is required).   US open saw this movement and we've had recovery in dollar opposing assets, so not as replacement but in conjunction BTC and gold often move in similar circles of movement.

[Gozie51]

I dont mind the price target, BTC remains quite capable of large price gains longer term.  

Again during the time of gold it was to the exclusive hodling of the old and royal families and even till this time also but it is not in comparison with bitcoin because btc is no exclusive of any class of people. I have heard of people gifting bitcoin to under age and this tells us the height that bitcoin will get in the future. The market value of btc in ten years time is going to be real record breaking.

[Finestream]

I dont mind the price target, BTC remains quite capable of large price gains longer term.   

Again during the time of gold it was to the exclusive hodling of the old and royal families and even till this time also but it is not in comparison with bitcoin because btc is no exclusive of any class of people. I have heard of people gifting bitcoin to under age and this tells us the height that bitcoin will get in the future. The market value of btc in ten years time is going to be real record breaking.

Well, bitcoin is always set to create bigger heights as its adoption is slowly taking place. So expect that it will be a million dollar ten years from now. And this is the reason why smart people chose bitcoin over gold because while gold has a very low value although its price is still not depreciating, but its way too far compared to  bitcoin because its value for now is already very high and expensive and yet, its still bound to make a good price increase which makes it more ideal to hold and use it as a retirement reward in the future.

[Johnyz]

People are getting way too confused over short, medium and long term. Yes Bitcoin is store of value, yes Bitcoin is always going to appreciate and yes Bitcoin also a hedge for inflation,,, but this is long term.

Volatility in short term is a fact we cannot deny, but that does not mean Bitcoin is broken

Bitcoin becomes a store of value because of its increasing price, and over the last 10 years, Bitcoin proves to become better and that’s why many started to believe on this. The $100k prediction is possible to happen, though it may not easy but in time we will be able to reach that. I see that to happen in the next 5 years, we are actually getting closer for that price.

[dothebeats]

$100k is definitely a reachable target. The question isn't how but rather when. We have seen bitcoin break previous records quite easily, even though it was projected to flop or get heavily dumped by speculators.

Also for a bank, Goldman-Sachs appear to be highly interested of what direction will bitcoin's price head to. They seem to release a lot of these speculations quite frequently, which makes me think that perhaps bitcoin is on one of their best interests too